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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 17:14   #1
acropolis
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Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

So I guess some guy wrote a book, and it said that the only reason we don't have artificial intelliegence is that we don't have the computing powe. He then predicts that we will have the power in 20 or so years (using an extrapolation of our progress over the last 30 years), and thatwe will thenhave self-aware computers. These computers design better computers, and next thing you know ~50 years from now we are beaming around the universe in reflective jumpsuits hooking up with hot space prostitutes. Or something like that. The rapid boost that happens once we have intelligent computers is the 'singularity.' Yes, this idea also was shown in Hitchhiker's Guide etc.

Relevant post:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/arc..._09/007172.php

I have a number of issues with this, but AI ain't my territory so I'm asking more than telling.

A) I was of the impression we weren't making much progress incomputing power anymore. I mean, 4 years ago 2.5GHz was a fast computer, today 2.5 GHz is a fast computer. If we were still Mooring along, shouldn't we be ~20 GHz now?

B) Does any software or algorithm exist that, theoretically, if run fast enough would eventually approach AI?

C) And looking in the comments below the post, where do people get the idea that Godel disproved AI?
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 17:39   #2
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

As soon as we break free of the restrictions of silicone, we will be flying, baby.

AI is already with us. While you can debate whether or not the I is relevant, you must face the facts that CrashTester is Artificial
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 17:55   #3
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

I think that even with the proper computing power being available, it will take a long time to develop software capable of becoming "true AI" (true as in truly self aware).

It's going to take years to develop software to the point where it can 'learn' like a human child can, but once this is perfected, I think that a machine, once it starts learning, would probably go self-aware in a matter of hours.

The really difficult thing is going to be avoiding some doomsday scenario like Skynet or The Matrix from happening.

Edit:
Quote:
Originally Posted by acropolis
A) I was of the impression we weren't making much progress incomputing power anymore. I mean, 4 years ago 2.5GHz was a fast computer, today 2.5 GHz is a fast computer. If we were still Mooring along, shouldn't we be ~20 GHz now?
No, that isn't true at all. Today it's all about increasing overall performance vs power consumption. Fitting multiple cores onto a chip is the in thing at the moment - Ars Technica has a lot of articles covering this subject.

Quote:
B) Does any software or algorithm exist that, theoretically, if run fast enough would eventually approach AI?
There are algorithms that can 'learn', but they have to trained by a human operator - a time consuming and laborious process. Nothing like what you would call 'true AI' exists yet.

Quote:
C) And looking in the comments below the post, where do people get the idea that Godel disproved AI?
I don't know the answer to this, but I do know that the Church will go batshit insane when the first true AI comes online and starts giving interviews.
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Last edited by Belgarath The Sorcerer; 3 Oct 2005 at 18:09.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 18:05   #4
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Lack of computing power isnt the main reason for the lack of progress in AI - the combinatoric explosion produced by traditional methods is probably intractable; simply having computers several thousand times faster than the ones currently available wouldnt help that much. The main problems come from the way the problems are approached and conceptualised, along with the failure of the classical approach (context free symbol manipulation) to scale up to real world problems. In other words, noone really has any idea how to even begin going about the construction of a machine capable of human-level intelligence, which is why most research tends to focus on far simpler problems, generally taking place in severely restricted domains. You might want to google for the "common sense knowledge problem" and the "frame problem" to get some idea of the issues involved.

In any case, theres a difference between having the hardware required to theoretically be able to solve a problem, and actually being able to design and implement the solution. A 7 year old child with a pen and a pad of paper has all the physical resources needed to reproduce the work of Shakespeare, but you can make a pretty safe bet that he wont be able to. For all we know, the computers we have available now are powerful enough for AI if some genius makes an Einstein-like breakthrough.

Quote:
B) Does any software or algorithm exist that, theoretically, if run fast enough would eventually approach AI?
No, unless a neuron-by-neuron simulation of the human brain being run on a computer capable of modelling real numbers to an arbitrary degree of precision and computing things at a speed roughly approximate to our brains counts. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that a given algorithm would approach AI if you ran it fast enough though.


Quote:
C) And looking in the comments below the post, where do people get the idea that Godel disproved AI?
I forget who originally made this argument, but Roger Penrose is responsible for the popularity it enjoyed a few years back (see his book "The Emporer's New Mind"). Most of his arguments have been refuted though and arent really taken seriously within cogsci/AI. A more insightful (imo) critique of traditional AI is Hubert Dreyfus' "What Computers Still Can't Do", which is worth checking out.

Last edited by Nodrog; 3 Oct 2005 at 18:24.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 18:13   #5
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by acropolis
C) And looking in the comments below the post, where do people get the idea that Godel disproved AI?
Google turned this up. I have no idea about the validity of the arguments and can't be bothered thinking about them because I am hungry :-(

Quote:
Originally Posted by Google
In 1931, the Czech-born mathematician Kurt Gödel demonstrated that within any given branch of mathematics, there would always be some propositions that couldn't be proven either true or false using the rules and axioms ... of that mathematical branch itself. You might be able to prove every conceivable statement about numbers within a system by going outside the system in order to come up with new rules and axioms, but by doing so you'll only create a larger system with its own unprovable statements. The implication is that all logical system of any complexity are, by definition, incomplete; each of them contains, at any given time, more true statements than it can possibly prove according to its own defining set of rules.

Gödel's Theorem has been used to argue that a computer can never be as smart as a human being because the extent of its knowledge is limited by a fixed set of axioms, whereas people can discover unexpected truths ... It plays a part in modern linguistic theories, which emphasize the power of language to come up with new ways to express ideas. And it has been taken to imply that you'll never entirely understand yourself, since your mind, like any other closed system, can only be sure of what it knows about itself by relying on what it knows about itself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by More from google
The proof of Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem is so simple, and so sneaky, that it is almost embarassing to relate. His basic procedure is as follows:

Someone introduces Gödel to a UTM, a machine that is supposed to be a Universal Truth Machine, capable of correctly answering any question at all.
Gödel asks for the program and the circuit design of the UTM. The program may be complicated, but it can only be finitely long. Call the program P(UTM) for Program of the Universal Truth Machine.
Smiling a little, Gödel writes out the following sentence: "The machine constructed on the basis of the program P(UTM) will never say that this sentence is true." Call this sentence G for Gödel. Note that G is equivalent to: "UTM will never say G is true."
Now Gödel laughs his high laugh and asks UTM whether G is true or not.
If UTM says G is true, then "UTM will never say G is true" is false. If "UTM will never say G is true" is false, then G is false (since G = "UTM will never say G is true"). So if UTM says G is true, then G is in fact false, and UTM has made a false statement. So UTM will never say that G is true, since UTM makes only true statements.
We have established that UTM will never say G is true. So "UTM will never say G is true" is in fact a true statement. So G is true (since G = "UTM will never say G is true").
"I know a truth that UTM can never utter," Gödel says. "I know that G is true. UTM is not truly universal."
Think about it - it grows on you ...

With his great mathematical and logical genius, Gödel was able to find a way (for any given P(UTM)) actually to write down a complicated polynomial equation that has a solution if and only if G is true. So G is not at all some vague or non-mathematical sentence. G is a specific mathematical problem that we know the answer to, even though UTM does not! So UTM does not, and cannot, embody a best and final theory of mathematics ...

Although this theorem can be stated and proved in a rigorously mathematical way, what it seems to say is that rational thought can never penetrate to the final ultimate truth ... But, paradoxically, to understand Gödel's proof is to find a sort of liberation. For many logic students, the final breakthrough to full understanding of the Incompleteness Theorem is practically a conversion experience. This is partly a by-product of the potent mystique Gödel's name carries. But, more profoundly, to understand the essentially labyrinthine nature of the castle is, somehow, to be free of it.
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Last edited by HAL-9000; 3 Oct 2005 at 18:21.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 18:24   #6
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

What Nod said in terms of why more computing power doesn't actually help much. In fact, I think the problem isn't related to power at all. I'd imagine if we did actually come close to conceptualising these problems we could probably "run" them on far less powerful hardware than we actually imagine.

I don't think these problems will be solved by "emulating" the human brain in a neurophysical sense - this just seems like a fairly shit admission that we have no ideas of how "intelligence" works.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 18:39   #7
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by Belgarath The Sorcerer
There are algorithms that can 'learn', but they have to trained by a human operator - a time consuming and laborious process. Nothing like what you would call 'true AI' exists yet.
There are several forms of machine learning that are unsupervised, my dissertation project's on multiagent reinforcement learning by which you reward an agent for completing some task without actually telling it what the task is, and it learns on its own. There are some surprisingly effective examples of it but at the minute many of them seem to revolve around playing games since they're a neat way of demonstrating learning against a practical problem.

Unsupervised learning techniques can also be applied to make agents learn from each other, or from themselves. TD-Gammon was one of the better examples, where it learnt new opening strategies for the game of Backgammon (which have since been adopted by some of the world's best players) simply by playing itself and trying out new techniques to beat itself. They're almost certainly not 'generally applicable' to learning how to solve any problem however, so their usefulness in a general-purpose AI is limited. The combinatorial explosion of states associated with machine learning has yet to be solved in any meaningful way for many RL problems, which means still that reasonably simple problems in human terms just can't be expressed in machine terms if for no other reason than fully exploring the statespace to find optimal or even passable solutions becomes an exponentially more memory and time consuming task for each new factor about the environment you have to encode.

The upside is that there are a fair few promising (though not rigourously proven to converge to an optimal solution) algorithms that lend themselves to massively parallel computing. The storage cost is still an issue however; one of the problems I'm trying to encode for my project leads to required exploration of over 40 million states, which is several orders of magnitude greater than can be achieved in reasonable time and space constraints (the problem would require at least 320Mb of state data, and this is for a problem whose parameters have already been severely quantized to the point of perhaps no longer being meaningful).
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 18:40   #8
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
Lack of computing power isnt the main reason for the lack of progress in AI - the combinatoric explosion produced by traditional methods is probably intractable; simply having computers several thousand times faster than the ones currently available wouldnt help that much. The main problems come from the way the problems are approached and conceptualised, along with the failure of the classical approach (context free symbol manipulation) to scale up to real world problems. In other words, noone really has any idea how to even begin going about the construction of a machine capable of human-level intelligence, which is why most research tends to focus on far simpler problems, generally taking place in severely restricted domains. You might want to google for the "common sense knowledge problem" and the "frame problem" to get some idea of the issues involved.

In any case, theres a difference between having the hardware required to theoretically be able to solve a problem, and actually being able to design and implement the solution. A 7 year old child with a pen and a pad of paper has all the physical resources needed to reproduce the work of Shakespeare, but you can make a pretty safe bet that he wont be able to. For all we know, the computers we have available now are powerful enough for AI if some genius makes an Einstein-like breakthrough..
will google.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
No, unless a neuron-by-neuron simulation of the human brain being run on a computer capable of modelling real numbers to an arbitrary degree of precision and computing things at a speed roughly approximate to our brains counts. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that a given algorithm would approach AI if you ran it fast enough though..
that seems a perfectly acceptable algorithm to me. Begging three questions.
1. Do we have the biological understanding of neurons necessary to model their input/output phenomena?
2. Do we, or will we soon, have the hardware needed?
3. Perhaps most importantly. Once we've successfully created our in-computer sentient mind, is there any reason to think it will be any 'smarter' than, say, a superspeed Tony Danza? I can certainly believe that our amind will be able to run through the same processes faster, but does that mean it will be able to do anything particurly useful? Give Tony Danza's mind a billion years, I don't think he's giving us relativity or, more importantly, the design for an even smarter computer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
I forget who originally made this argument, but Roger Penrose is responsible for the popularity it enjoyed a few years back (see his book "The Emporer's New Mind"). Most of his arguments have been refuted though and arent really taken seriously within cogsci/AI. A more insightful (imo) critique of traditional AI is Hubert Dreyfus' "What Computers Still Can't Do", which is worth checking out.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 19:06   #9
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by horn
aren't quantum computers supposedly around the corner (in reference to the computing power etc)
QC optimists estimate QC computing to be realized perhaps within century.

but it doesn't really matter, because afaik QC will be extremely limited in application; i.e., there isn't a QC transistor counterpart nor a QC diode counterpart that is just 'faster' (such that we could replace modern computers for their much faster QC counterparts on a 1:1 component basis), there are only a few processes that can be performed many orders of magnitude faster using QC. notably factoring large numbers. which i doubt is a fundamental problem in AI.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 19:28   #10
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by acropolis
1. Do we have the biological understanding of neurons necessary to model their input/output phenomena?
I'm not sure, I dont know enough about neuroscience. I wouldnt be surprised if the answer was yes though. There have been many attempts to build computer programs in a style that is similar to the human brain (using artificial neural networks), but the neuron models they use tend to be simplied, and they havent had much success outside of very limited domains (pattern recognition for instance).

Quote:
2. Do we, or will we soon, have the hardware needed?
For a simulation of the human brain? No. There have been various estimates about what the 'computing speed' of the human brain is, and wikipedia has the following:

Quote:
In some comparisons between the brain and computers, the following calculation is made: There are billions of neurons in the human brain; estimates differ and there are individual differences, some suggest about 2×10^12 neurons. Since the relaxation time of these neurons is about 10 ms, this could amount to a processing speed of 100 Hz. The whole brain could therefore have a processing power of roughly 2×10^14 logical operations per second. To compare, a 64-bit PowerPC 970 processor at a frequency of 3 GHz corresponds to 2×10^11 logical operations per second. But keep in mind that the neuron can have more than 1000 connections, thus having at least 1000-bit processing instead of 64-bit. As a result, it can process roughly 5.8×10^32 more information (2×10^1000 / 2×10^64), making the brain roughly 5.8×10^35 as powerful as a current high-end consumer PC.
However, bear in mind that this is highly speculative - theres no real reason to believe that the brain has a great deal in common with artificial neural networks, or that it functions in a way which is anything like a computer. There's also the fact that a lot of that brain hardware might be completely unnecessary - evolution isnt always an efficient design process, so you might be able to get the same functionality out of a lot less material.

Quote:
3. Perhaps most importantly. Once we've successfully created our in-computer sentient mind, is there any reason to think it will be any 'smarter' than, say, a superspeed Tony Danza? I can certainly believe that our amind will be able to run through the same processes faster, but does that mean it will be able to do anything particurly useful? Give Tony Danza's mind a billion years, I don't think he's giving us relativity or, more importantly, the design for an even smarter computer.
It really depends. I think you can make a compelling argument that if we knew enough about the brain and general cognitive functions to make a robot that is as 'intelligent' as a human, then we should also know enough to make one that is capable of going beyond that. There's no reason to believe that current human intelligence represents the highest level of cognitive ability (and indeed this seems an absurd idea when you look at it from an evolutionary perspective). A human brain is qualatively different from a spiders brain in terms of what it can do (abstract reasoning and concept formation for example, which even a 'superfast' spider probably wouldnt be capable of), so it may be possible for an advanced being to do things which are similarly beyond us. But, like the article in your first post, this is all just speculation and doesnt really have any supporting evidence.

Last edited by Nodrog; 3 Oct 2005 at 19:38.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 19:53   #11
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by horn
this is going to really annoy me because i can't rmember the bloody source, but remember either reading a review of a book about, or seeing something somewhere about some bloke (a scientisst i would guess) who thinks that there is a limit to "intelligence", i vaguely remember it sounding credible. I'm really quite annoyed i can't remember what it was now, maybe someone else does.
It wasn't something that "sounded right" though. Didn''t Einstein have a 10% larger brain than average ?
= limit to intelligence proven

i think the size of the brain has nothing to do with the IQ from what i know. I think they did research on that.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 21:46   #12
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

I'd imagine if we could construct some kind of entity that was capable of human like intelligence then we could probably speed it up, or expand it somehow (in terms of memory or something).

Once that ocurred we'd probably see emergent properties in said entity on a different level to that which we're used to seeing in our fellow humans.

It's kind of like the difference between animation / moving pictures and seperate still images. There's no real difference but at a certain rate certain observers (i.e. creatures with a specific visual refresh rate) one looks very different to the other.

There's no reason why to a hypothetical super-observer our thought patterns wouldn't look very "mechanical" or predictable (discounting the possibility of some sort of quantum interaction). Similarly to someone who was either very simple minded (or perhaps ignorant) the AI displayed in a reasonably modern computer game would probably be indistinguishable to "real" intelligence.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 22:27   #13
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

I'm about to study artificial intelligence in Computing as part of a programming languages module - Miranda and Lisp as part of the Logic and Functional types under Declarative. From what I can gather, and this goes for Prolong which I'm getting onto when we cover 4th & 5th generation languages (so the examing board says) it's not the commands but rather it's very close to the way humans deal with problems.

Quote:
theres no real reason to believe that the brain has a great deal in common with artificial neural networks, or that it functions in a way which is anything like a computer.
My teacher happens to refer to humans as being an object class (a la object-orientated programming) defining us as similar to computers in many ways (all analogy based of course) for example we were written with public and private attributes (procedures and functions) saying our procedures include breathing, moving, aging etc. and the functions which can change these values are eg: Date of Birth as this can change our age etc.

He justifies all of that on the basis that computers respond to a user just like an employee listens to their boss - most of the time computers and people do anyway. His stance on A.I. itself is that it will never be realised unless we're able to still obtain control and it's why he believes nanobots should never be created.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 23:13   #14
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

What?
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 23:24   #15
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by Androme2
He justifies all of that on the basis that computers respond to a user just like an employee listens to their boss - most of the time computers and people do anyway. His stance on A.I. itself is that it will never be realised unless we're able to still obtain control and it's why he believes nanobots should never be created.

he's late to the party.
We've already made basic nanobots, iirc.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 23:34   #16
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

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Originally Posted by pablissimo
There are several forms of machine learning that are unsupervised, my dissertation project's on multiagent reinforcement learning by which you reward an agent for completing some task without actually telling it what the task is, and it learns on its own.
I see - it appears I'm behind on my reading, although in my defence, AI isn't really part of the particular branch of computing that my degree covers. Although I suppose it could be, and in truth, I was thinking of writing my mini-paper on machine learning and object/pattern recognition.

One thing I have been thinking about since I first read this thread, is that rat brain that they got to learn how to fly a flight simulator... it's possible that AI might head down that road in the future.
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Unread 3 Oct 2005, 23:59   #17
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

computers are already capable of coming out with more intelligent conversation than most of you
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 00:13   #18
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by horn
there may not be a DIRECT correlation, but i would say it's pretty safe to assume that a larger brain would result in a general increase in intelligence (whether that intelligence be, social interaction, IQ, musical or any other kind of intelligence). I.e. we have the largest brains compared to our body mass, we're also the most intelligent. (yes, subjective i know blah blah, but it's still right)
Actually an increase in brain mass would make us "stupider" as the neurons would take longer to travel (this is horribly horribly simplified, and might be dependent on contingent factors, so please look it up before accepting what I'm saying as true). Neanderthal man had a larger brain than homo sapiens if I recall correctly.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 00:29   #19
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Einstein used 2% more of his brain I think. We actually only use like 10 or 15%. I forget the exact numbers.

Also Einstein stole all his theories
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 00:39   #20
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

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computers are already capable of coming out with more intelligent conversation than most of you
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 05:37   #21
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by acropolis
So I guess some guy wrote a book, and it said that the only reason we don't have artificial intelliegence is that we don't have the computing powe. He then predicts that we will have the power in 20 or so years (using an extrapolation of our progress over the last 30 years), and thatwe will thenhave self-aware computers. These computers design better computers, and next thing you know ~50 years from now we are beaming around the universe in reflective jumpsuits hooking up with hot space prostitutes. Or something like that. The rapid boost that happens once we have intelligent computers is the 'singularity.' Yes, this idea also was shown in Hitchhiker's Guide etc.

Relevant post:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/arc..._09/007172.php

I have a number of issues with this, but AI ain't my territory so I'm asking more than telling.

A) I was of the impression we weren't making much progress incomputing power anymore. I mean, 4 years ago 2.5GHz was a fast computer, today 2.5 GHz is a fast computer. If we were still Mooring along, shouldn't we be ~20 GHz now?

B) Does any software or algorithm exist that, theoretically, if run fast enough would eventually approach AI?

C) And looking in the comments below the post, where do people get the idea that Godel disproved AI?

yes, unfortunately this book does not take in to account the law of deminishing returns... >.>
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 07:57   #22
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
Einstein used 2% more of his brain I think. We actually only use like 10 or 15%. I forget the exact numbers.
not realloy. This claim is a bit of an urban myth. we only use 10-15% at any one time, but we use all of it throughout the course of our activities. Sometimes people do use more, and this is called an Epileptic seizure.

There were a few interesting things about Einstwin's brain though. For one thing he was dyslexic, and another, if I recall, part of the cleft through the centre of the brain, bridged in most people only by the corpus callosum, was filled, so there were additional connections between the hemispheres.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 09:52   #23
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

but was einstein really so clever, I mean we ALL know that E=Mc2, its not a hard one.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 11:37   #24
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by Androme2
I'm about to study artificial intelligence in Computing as part of a programming languages module - Miranda and Lisp as part of the Logic and Functional types under Declarative. From what I can gather, and this goes for Prolong which I'm getting onto when we cover 4th & 5th generation languages (so the examing board says) it's not the commands but rather it's very close to the way humans deal with problems.
Prolog is a logic programming language, based around having a database containing context-free atomic facts (by atomic, I mean facts that are unrelated to each other "Bob likes ice-cream and Simon likes chocolate" isnt an atomic fact, because it can be broken down into 2 more basic facts. The idea is that if you can enumerate all the atomic facts in a domain of knowledge then you can combine them via the basic logical operators AND/OR/etc in order to produce all possible facts). So for example, if Steven likes cats, you'd encode this in a prolog database as Likes(Steven, Cats). You then have various functions which consult this database and asks if certain relations hold.

It was thought for a large period of time that all human knowledge could be broken down into a large list of facts, and hence represented in a logical calculus. But although this approach has had a great deal of success when it comes to modelling very specifc domains of knowledge(such as designing a medical program for diagnosing patients), it has continually failed when it comes to modelling 'real world' situations and producing agents that are able to function in non-trivial environments. The problem is that a lot of human 'common sense' knowledge (ie the stuff we use for coping in day-to-day life) isnt easily representable in this fashion - its exceptionally difficult to break down even the background knowledge we use when performing simple tasks like going to the shops into a finite list of atomic facts. Some recent trends in AI have moved away from this logic-based explicit representation approach (and some researchers have abandoned representation altogether), but there are still some traditionalists who believe that modelling common sense knowledge is just a case of somehow creating a sufficiently large (yet finite) database. The Cyc project is probably the largest scale implementation of this approach.

Quote:
My teacher happens to refer to humans as being an object class (a la object-orientated programming) defining us as similar to computers in many ways (all analogy based of course) for example we were written with public and private attributes (procedures and functions) saying our procedures include breathing, moving, aging etc. and the functions which can change these values are eg: Date of Birth as this can change our age etc.

He justifies all of that on the basis that computers respond to a user just like an employee listens to their boss - most of the time computers and people do anyway. His stance on A.I. itself is that it will never be realised unless we're able to still obtain control and it's why he believes nanobots should never be created.
Yeah, theres a tendency within some strands of cogsci/AI to class humans brains as just being highly complicated computing machines (this goes back centuries). But while this might be a useful metaphor for certain purposes, theres no real evidence to suggest that its true. Most computational models of intelligence have had limited success at best.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 13:40   #25
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

I still have close friends from uni involved in some aspects related to AI (they've even got me into a rodney brooks lecturer), specifically machine vision and vision recognition (if we're talking in terms of current matrix multiplication type mathematical tools). Even the name 'neural network' to me is a misnomer, there may be a level of 'learning' involved but that doesn't mean 'understanding', all neural networks effectively does is take a matrix of data and store it in a way that can be recovered, tying up more than one layer of neural network or increasing the processing power that it runs on won't alter the fact that a computer is in no way reaching any real level of 'life' (which if we're honest is the aim here). As nodrog said pattern recognition has been achieved in very tightly controlled conditions within industrial machine vision but trying to take those tools to other everyday applications has prooved near on impossible (even with fuzzy logic). The only real success i can think of has been number plate recognition (and even that required standardised number plates), theres shit loads of research going on to try and develop AI related software for security operations (facial recognition of terrorists/criminals) but they aren't really getting anywhere, these kinds of applications relative to what they're trying to achieve (an artificial intelligence) are pretty insignificant, if the tools they use are more or less based on the same principles, i don't see how they can achieve the latter if they can't even figure out the former.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 15:34   #26
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

It is my opinion that AI is impossible. Why? Because 'human intelligence' is a culturally loaded word. More on that can be found in my previous threads on the topic. There is no such thing. If it doesn't exist, then it is impossible to replicate it artificially. We don't know what we are, we don't know what the hell we are doing, and so how can we even begin to replicate what it is we are when we don't even know what that is.

On the other hand, I'm sure we'll be able to create something that can 'mimic' what it is we do very nicely. You may say: "If it quacks like a duck, and looks like a duck..." And I'll say bullshit, whatever it is we make will never be us until we understand what it is we are, and as a brain in a vat can't know that it is a brain a vat...it is impossible. I don't believe that we can recreate consciousness, we can only mimic it.

EDIT: Well I guess I am assuming that AI requires consciousness to be intelligent. Does it?
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 15:50   #27
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

'Blue' is a culturally loaded word but we can still create programs which can classify colours according to whether the average English speaker would describe them as 'blue'. The word 'intelligence' is poorly defined, but we can come to some agreement about what actions should be called 'intelligent' and then call a machine intelligent if it manages to carry them out (passing a Turing test for example). Obviously this is a purely behavioral definition which wont satisfy people who think that intelligence is some kind of spooky ghost which lives inside human skulls and breathes rationality into our actions, but its not clear what else we can do.

I think most people would say that a dog shows signs of intelligence, so it would be arbitrary to say that a (fully functioning) robot dog wasnt intelligent.
Quote:
EDIT: Well I guess I am assuming that AI requires consciousness to be intelligent. Does it?
It depends how you want to define 'intelligent'. But in any case, its quite hard to give a definition of consciousness which includes humans and cats, but rules out (say) a videocamera attached to a destructible robot which can act on the received images.

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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 15:57   #28
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

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Originally Posted by Nodrog
Obviously this is a purely behavioral definition..., but its not clear what else we are able to do.
I'm sure it's possible to some extent, I'm sure we can impress ourselves with out own ignuenity. I don't think it should be called 'AI' but beyond that, I still doubt that even behavioarably we'll be able to create something as complex as a human. The machine will need to as capable of cultural diversity as a human, and a large component of humanity is sex, and just how are we going to progam an orgasm </joke>.

Perhaps we should use an evolutionary model and first create something simple and then create some kind of process for reproduction, mutation, inheritance of traits, and selection, and maybe that way we can begin to approach development of a program as complex as we are.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 16:11   #29
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by acropolis
A) I was of the impression we weren't making much progress incomputing power anymore. I mean, 4 years ago 2.5GHz was a fast computer, today 2.5 GHz is a fast computer. If we were still Mooring along, shouldn't we be ~20 GHz now?
That isn't necessarily true. I mean, yes 2.5GHz then was a "fast" computer, but they werent' exactly available.

I remember buying my laptop 4 years ago and it's 900Mhz I think. It was top-of-the-range.

That's like saying "well a million billion zillion gigahertz is fast now and it will be in the future!". Yes, it is. But you can't get it now in any real sense. You couldnt' get 2.5GHz computers 4 years ago. Not at any kind of affordable price. And they certainly werent' available for home users.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 17:19   #30
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomkat
That isn't necessarily true. I mean, yes 2.5GHz then was a "fast" computer, but they werent' exactly available.

I remember buying my laptop 4 years ago and it's 900Mhz I think. It was top-of-the-range.

That's like saying "well a million billion zillion gigahertz is fast now and it will be in the future!". Yes, it is. But you can't get it now in any real sense. You couldnt' get 2.5GHz computers 4 years ago. Not at any kind of affordable price. And they certainly werent' available for home users.
I don't think laptops of four years ago to desktops of today is an entirely fair comparison, laptops then and today are not as powerful. Today's laptops seem to go upwards of 1.7 GHz, which vs. your laptop implies that power has almost double over 4 years (so a period about 3X Moore's). However, how much of that is actual progress in power and how much is just miniaturization of existing components?

The computer on my desktop at home is 2.7 GHz, it wasn't even close to top of the line when I got it, 2.5 years ago. And I seem to remember that when I bought it, 2.5-3 GHz had been top speed for a long time.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 18:43   #31
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

(BAD JOKE ALERT. READ THE FOLLOWING AT YOUR OWN PERIL.)

IBM and Microsoft recently developed a machine that could think and carry on a conversation. They claimed that the AI could talk to people of any intelligence level. They decided to prove this by placing a prototype of the AI out on the street.

A man was walking along when he was startled to hear a disembodied voice come out of a speaker, "Hello, sir. I am the IBM-Microsoft collaborative arificial intelligence computer. Would you mind chatting with me for a brief while?"

The man was intrigued. "Why no he responded."

"First could you please tell me what your IQ score is?" the machine inquired.

"175," the man responded.

"What do you think the ramifications of string theory on the possibility of unification theory?"

Whereupon, the man and the AI carried on a rather lengthy and involved conversation about physics and a wide range of theoretical concepts.

The first man left and a woman was walking by.

Again the AI stopped her and asked if she wished to chat and, upon receiving an affirmative reply, asked for the woman's IQ score. "120," she answered.

"Did you hear Blair's speech last week? What do you think of the PM's views on education in the UK?"

After which the machine and the woman had a nice discussion about various current events in the UK and the world.

When the next person came along and identified himself as having a 100 IQ, the AI quiried, "So who do you like this year Chelsea or Manchester?" Upon which a discussion about the various football teams and players was held.

After the third person had left, another individual was walking by and was stopped by the AI and the inquiry as to IQ was asked and the answer was "75." To which the AI replied, "Oh, hullo, Flavius."
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 18:50   #32
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 19:06   #33
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Processor speed isn't that important, or shouldn't be unless considering something 'really intelligent'*. If a mathematical tool or idea existed that could be used to create AI it already would have been created. Numerous supercomputers exist that completely overshadow desktop processing, if needed be they could even be linked together. The researchers/scientists that believe the answer lies in processing will never get the processing power they want, since they invariably cram what they already have with more clumsy and complicated code, their use up (in terms of effecient working time) everything they have making something that doesn't work, then wait till more comes along before using that all.

Most researchers tend to agree that AI probably won't be reached using present methodolgy, the people who are doing significant research tend to be funded largely by the various defence departments, they aren't getting very far though.


*thats a subjective measure, the advocates of processor power seem to imply a similar processing ability to the human brain is required (however they measure that) to achieve something far from substantial.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 20:54   #34
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

I can't be arsed reading all those replies. But the thread topic irritated me enough to post a reply. The 'speed' of computers is indeed limitted, and the future is quantum computers - which will be potentially millions of times faster than our current computers, making encryption devices and so forth pretty pointless --> they'll never be released to the general public. Although they will consume **** all power compard to our present day beasts (in theory).

My tutor at uni 'is part' of an international group of theoretical physicists working on problems in quantum computing. As such I've had the pleasure of sitting in and listening to experts babble on and on. Quantum computers are decades away, although advances are being made all the time, like electron spin filters have been successfully built. Although cables capable of carrying the information aren't yet. And so forth.
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Unread 4 Oct 2005, 21:22   #35
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quantum encryption is theoretically unbreakable and afaik theres no real proof that quantum computers would be faster than normal computers, except at performing a handful of algorithms.
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Unread 5 Oct 2005, 09:36   #36
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

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Originally Posted by Nodrog
Quantum encryption is theoretically unbreakable and afaik theres no real proof that quantum computers would be faster than normal computers, except at performing a handful of algorithms.
so are one-time-pads. the Quantum bit is basically transmission of a totally random one time pad.

As regards the algorithms, this is all still at a pretty early stage, but there is quite alot of interesting reseach being done, on complicated multiple input gates which do the whole processing in a single step (rather than having to ass through a load of gates) and some really novel gates that do not exist in classical computing, like the-square-root-of-not gate - a single gate produces a completely random output, but two coupled gates work exactly like a NOT gate.

So while there is no explicit proof yet, I would suspect that Qcomputers will be faster - reversible computation allows for less heat loss, and will be able to do a bunch of stuff that classical computers cannot. Whether any of this will be useful or not in anything other than very specific areas is another question
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Unread 5 Oct 2005, 14:39   #37
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by Radical Edward
So while there is no explicit proof yet, I would suspect that Qcomputers will be faster - reversible computation allows for less heat loss, and will be able to do a bunch of stuff that classical computers cannot. Whether any of this will be useful or not in anything other than very specific areas is another question
I'm not sure what you mean by being able to do stuff that ordinary computers cant. If you just mean that they can do certain things faster then yeah, this could be possible (but again theres very little evidence to suggest that they can - 'research is ongoing' doesnt imply 'hence we are likely to find something'). If you mean that they can do things which classical computers literally cant, then this is incorrect (QCs are turing complete).
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Unread 5 Oct 2005, 16:20   #38
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
I'm not sure what you mean by being able to do stuff that ordinary computers cant.
I go back on that, I was incorrect since I was overstretching things like the square root of a not gate.
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Unread 5 Oct 2005, 18:26   #39
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

I don't think anyone's replied to this in any great detail, so I will.

Quote:
Originally Posted by acropolis
A) I was of the impression we weren't making much progress incomputing power anymore. I mean, 4 years ago 2.5GHz was a fast computer, today 2.5 GHz is a fast computer. If we were still Mooring along, shouldn't we be ~20 GHz now?
That's a pretty inaccurate representation of the computer industry, and also Moore's Law (Moore's Law is 18 months, not the 12 required for your maths to hang together).
You're judging speed simply by clock speed, which is blatently not the case (also, I don't think 2.5Ghz was that readily available in 2001 - 2GHz sounds more right), and has not been for many years. Intel may have been sticking with it, despite its obvious flaws, but AMD abandoned it many years ago - look at the Athlon XP series of chips (thoroughbred and barton cores specifically) which had "Ratings" and actual clockspeeds. The ratings were basically a comparison of how fast they thought a P4 would have to be to have the same performance as the AMD chip, even though the clockspeeds were lower. For example, this 2800+ Barton is, for all intents and purposes, nigh on the same performance as a 3GHz P4, yet it only actually runs at 2.1GHz. Similarly, my laptop's process (a mobile Athlon 64) is, again, rated as a 2800+ - but it's clock speed is a mere 1.8GHz, which is only 2/3 of the rating (when idling, it can even go as low as 600MHz, but that's another matter entirely).
This rating system is the same with today's chips. I don't think you can claim that an Athlon 64 4200+ is going to perform the same as a 2.2GHz chip from yesteryear.

That's not, of course, to say that we're not advancing as fast as we should be. There's been some notable problems when trying to fabricate chips around the 70nm area, because quantum effects come in in a big way. And, as has already been mentioned, both AMD and Intel are not only going for brute force speed increases at the moment, moving into areas like 64 bit chips, dual core processors and greater general efficiency. This kind of lull is predictable, and arguably necessary.
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Unread 5 Oct 2005, 19:09   #40
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
That's a pretty inaccurate representation of the computer industry, and also Moore's Law (Moore's Law is 18 months, not the 12 required for your maths to hang together).
You're judging speed simply by clock speed, which is blatently not the case (also, I don't think 2.5Ghz was that readily available in 2001 - 2GHz sounds more right), .
my math was actually based on 18 months; 4 years at 12 months would have put us at 40 GHz according to that. However, 4 doesn't evenly divide by 1.5 so I approximated (hence the ~) 2.5*2^2.6666 as 2.5*2^3. Using a calculator, it's really 15.87 GHz which in this context is ~20 GHz.

But on point, you are right, 2 GHz is about tops for home computers in 2001.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
and has not been for many years. Intel may have been sticking with it, despite its obvious flaws, but AMD abandoned it many years ago - look at the Athlon XP series of chips (thoroughbred and barton cores specifically) which had "Ratings" and actual clockspeeds. The ratings were basically....chips. I don't think you can claim that an Athlon 64 4200+ is going to perform the same as a 2.2GHz chip from yesteryear..
I was using speed somewhat arbitrarily, I understand that it isn't perfect for this sort of the thing.

If you see a better quantifiable measure by which we could see if Moore's law is still in effect I would be interested ('rating' perhaps?).
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
That's not, of course, to say that we're not advancing as fast as we should be.
Context leads me to believe that this double-negative means the opposite of what it says. How much of an increase in computer power do you believe we've had in the last 18 months? Foresee for the next 18?

And finally, how long would guess it will take us to achieve the 1000-fold increase in computing power that the author beleives is necessary for real AI (putting aside whether you agree with that belief)?

Moore would give us 15 years.
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Unread 5 Oct 2005, 19:20   #41
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by acropolis
If you see a better quantifiable measure by which we could see if Moore's law is still in effect I would be interested ('rating' perhaps?).
"megaflops", or something similar. Clock speed is utterly useless as it doesn't tell you anything about how much the chip does, just how often it does it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by acropolis
Context leads me to believe that this double-negative means the opposite of what it says. How much of an increase in computer power do you believe we've had in the last 18 months? Foresee for the next 18?
Yeah, I wasn't thinking that through. I can't really say how much we've had recently, although graphics cards have really come on in that time, but in 18 months we'll be well into the lifetime of, for example, AMD's M-2 chips - and using dual core chips might not directly increase the power as much as Moore's Law says, but it will do other, perhaps more valuable, things that can't be directly quantified.

Quote:
And finally, how long would guess it will take us to achieve the 1000-fold increase in computing power that the author beleives is necessary for real AI (putting aside whether you agree with that belief)?

Moore would give us 15 years.
We're not really in the direct speed comparisons of moore's law any more, and in any case things like Sony's Cell processor, and the possible rise of the quantum computer, mean that we're lagging behind now in order to be leaps and bounds ahead at a later date.

And I don't really care about what he says - the human brain does what it does not through brute force speed but by the way it's constructed, and computers will be the same way.
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Unread 5 Oct 2005, 19:37   #42
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
"megaflops", or something similar. Clock speed is utterly useless as it doesn't tell you anything about how much the chip does, just how often it does it.
.
Flops only gives an indication of raw CPU speed, but other things will affect the performance of the system. You need some kind of standard benchmarking suite (eg SPEC) to do proper comparasions. It's also highly dependent on the CPU used (I recall reading somewhere that the PS3 has 100 times the FLOP rating of a high-end PC, or something equally silly).


edit:

Quote:
For example, the PlayStation 3 coming out in 2006 has been announced as having a system floating point performance of 2.0 TFLOPS, roughly double the announced TFLOPS rating of the Xbox 360, itself rated in the TFLOPS class. By comparison, a general-purpose PC would have a FLOPS rating of only a few GFLOPS, if the performance of its CPU alone was considered. The TFLOPS ratings of the games consoles would appear to class them as supercomputers, if comparisons based on FLOPS alone were valid (ie, a rating of 2.005 TFLOPS would place a PS3 as the 200th fastest computer on the planet).

However, these FLOPS figures should be treated with caution, as they are not in general comparable like-for-like with FLOPS for a fully-programmable general-purpose CPU. The game console figures are based on total system performance (CPU + GPU). Most of the FLOPS performance for games consoles or video cards comes from their GPUs, which are deeply pipelined vector processors specialized for graphics operations, with only limited programmability. This is possible because 3D graphics operations are a classic example of a highly parallelizable problem which can easily be split between different execution units and pipelines, allowing a high speed gain to be obtained from scaling the number of logic gates, rather than clock speed alone.
(wikipedia)
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Unread 5 Oct 2005, 19:51   #43
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Re: Singularity Due To Artificial Intelligence

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
Flops only gives an indication of raw CPU speed, but other things will affect the performance of the system. You need some kind of standard benchmarking suite (eg SPEC) to do proper comparasions. It's also highly dependent on the CPU used (I recall reading somewhere that the PS3 has 100 times the FLOP rating of a high-end PC, or something equally silly).
It was just an example, obviously a suite of tests is the best solution - although you can still have problems with that if manufacturors are dishonest (see: nvidia forcing 3DMark tests to lower actual settings, with the same visable settings, to get higher scores).

Also, Sony lies all the time about the capabilities of its consoles.
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