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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:10   #1
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Place Your Bets

When the next invasion takes place

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/4680294.stm

In a quick summary, Iran have been reported by the UN watchdog to the security council.

There reply to this was of course modest and this was to stop UN inspectors in Iran and to resume full scale uranium enrichment.

I say April by the way.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:12   #2
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Re: Place Your Bets

I can't see it happening myself, although Israel may bomb the shit out of their nuclear facilities for a bit.

Edit: the date for that will possibly be relatively soon after the lip-service to the UN has been paid.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:12   #3
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Re: Place Your Bets

I agree with All Systems Go, although Iran has scattered its sites unlike Iraq. However, if it does happen, I say October. No-one in their right mind would attack in the summer.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:14   #4
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Re: Place Your Bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
I agree with All Systems Go, although Iran has scattered its sites unlike Iraq. However, if it does happen, I say October. No-one in their right mind would attack in the summer.
But then no one would attack in the winter either iirc, thats why they chose march last time to give them the 6 week window before it got too hot.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:16   #5
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Re: Place Your Bets

The US can't afford military action. At worst it is going to turn into sanctions that will only hurt Iran's poor and young and make the corrupt rich and not do a damn thing to stop Nuclear development.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:18   #6
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Re: Place Your Bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by All Systems Go
I can't see it happening myself, although Israel may bomb the shit out of their nuclear facilities for a bit.

Edit: the date for that will possibly be relatively soon after the lip-service to the UN has been paid.
I agree. Israel bombing them is the only thing that could happen. The US doesnt have the military resources to start yet another invasion, that's why Iran is pulling off this whole shit now in the first place.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:20   #7
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Re: Place Your Bets

That would be funny to watch israel v iran
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:39   #8
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Re: Place Your Bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by pig
That would be funny to watch israel v iran
It wouldn't even be a contest.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:48   #9
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Re: Place Your Bets

they said that when the usa went into iraq, and i guess in war terms it wasnt a contest but there were a few hiccups...
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:52   #10
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Re: Place Your Bets

If Iran is going to be 'corrected' it has to be done by European countries.
So I guess it's gonna take alot more talking first

Iran knows that, and are testing how far they can go atm
Because this is proberbly the only real oppertunity they get to do that

I don't see an invasion happening quite soon, the talks and sanctions will just drag on for ages

Only when Iran is gonna threaten with cutting off oil supply's a war is gonna occur
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 15:15   #11
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Re: Place Your Bets

With the current oil and gas prices any sanctions against Iran would be madness. To be honest i dont see the UN doing much.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 17:51   #12
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Re: Place Your Bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by pig
they said that when the usa went into iraq, and i guess in war terms it wasnt a contest but there were a few hiccups...


the difference being that israel wouldn't bother invading, its not worth the effort, they would just use targetted strikes to take out whatever they wanted then sit inside thir borders safe in the knowledge that no one in the area could do a damn thing about it
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 18:00   #13
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Re: Place Your Bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by roadrunner_0
the difference being that israel wouldn't bother invading, its not worth the effort, they would just use targetted strikes to take out whatever they wanted then sit inside thir borders safe in the knowledge that no one in the area could do a damn thing about it

Plus I'm sure they don't want massive casualites that invading a massive and fanatical country like Iran would cause.
Especially for Zionists. Plus the fact it would destablilise the entire region, Israel invading an Islamic Arab country?! They middle east would explode.
They'll missile strike.
The US can't and won't do anything about Iran really. European countries will not attack Iran. So it's gonna be talking...talking....possible sanctions, enrichment, isreal missile strike, backlash against Israel from arabs, more talking.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 18:10   #14
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Re: Place Your Bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by s|k
It wouldn't even be a contest.
I wouldn't be so sure. Attacking Iran wouldn't be a cake like Iraq was. It's likely to stirr up all sorts of shit among fundamentalists and the islamic world.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 18:22   #15
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Re: Place Your Bets

Iran can reach Tel Aviv with missiles...
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 18:23   #16
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Re: Place Your Bets

if they had any missiles left after israel attacked, plus, that would just escalate it i think
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 18:51   #17
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Re: Place Your Bets

The point is that Israel will most likely not be able to hit Iran without cost. First off all the Iranians have spent alot of money in the recent years on its air-defence and it's a rather large country, so there are plenty of places to hide a missile or two.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 22:44   #18
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Exclamation Re: Place Your Bets

There will be no invasion. Not anytime soon. Probably not ever.

First, we will do down the sanctions road, although it's not at all clear that the UN Security Council will even approve sanctions. Most likely the UNSC will approve only Zimbabwe-style travel restrictions or some such pap.

The US and EU will then consider imposing their own sanctions. The US already has unilateral trade sanctions against Iran, so that's pretty much done. I think the EU will support some additional sanctions, although I'm not sure what. Any additional sanctions they do support will be conditioned on the US not acting unilaterally for some duration ("to give sanctions time to work"). Fast forward to Iran's first nuclear test and everyone remembers to act surprised and shocked.

The problem with a strike to take out Iran's nuclear program is that their facilities are dispersed and hardened. It's not even clear that we know where all of them are (many of the ones we do know about are only due to Iranian dissidents ratting them out; by contast, Israel's strike on the Iraqi facility involved a single, undefended site). Iranian facilities would require multiple strikes (meaning you'd first have to establish air superiority) and sending in at least some ground teams to verify the targets were destroyed. I think the scope of such an operation is well beyond Israel's capabilities and probably our own (at least in a political sense).

Unfortunately I think that when Iran gets the nuclear weapons it will trigger an arms race. Saudi Arabia will probably want them. Maybe Turkey and Syria too. Israel will want even more nuclear weapons. Other countries will decide that no one's willing or able to enforce nonproliferation, etc.
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Unread 5 Feb 2006, 02:27   #19
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Re: Place Your Bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
Unfortunately I think that when Iran gets the nuclear weapons it will trigger an arms race. Saudi Arabia will probably want them. Maybe Turkey and Syria too. Israel will want even more nuclear weapons. Other countries will decide that no one's willing or able to enforce nonproliferation, etc.
And in the end even the peacefull people of GD are gonna want nuclear weapons.
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Unread 5 Feb 2006, 02:54   #20
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Re: Place Your Bets

**** peaceful, i would already have detonated a dirty bomb under every middle east city if GD had nukes - just to stop the bloody arguments on here
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Unread 5 Feb 2006, 03:12   #21
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Re: Place Your Bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by roadrunner_0
**** peaceful, i would already have detonated a dirty bomb under every middle east city if GD had nukes - just to stop the bloody arguments on here
I would sell em to Iran and get my 72 virgins in real life
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Unread 5 Feb 2006, 03:30   #22
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Re: Place Your Bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by roadrunner_0
**** peaceful, i would already have detonated a dirty bomb under every middle east city if GD had nukes - just to stop the bloody arguments on here
If you don't like the argument then why do you start them?
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Unread 5 Feb 2006, 12:24   #23
roadrunner_0
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Re: Place Your Bets

because somebody had to also, my last reply to this thread was facetious
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Unread 5 Feb 2006, 13:08   #24
Belgarath The Sorcerer
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Re: Place Your Bets

We are on the verge of another World War
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