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22 Dec 2005, 22:53
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#1
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Tiny Dancer
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Yellow Brick Road
Posts: 355
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Fantasy Betting for 2006
Some bookmakers offer novelty 'year specials' - ie, Prince harry to get married, a brit to win wimbledon, the queen to abdicate, a golfer to shoot 59 or under etc etc etc.
I thought it might be interesting if we came up with some of our own and gave the odds. Serious, or comedy.
2/1 - David Cameron to announce a policy in 2006
5/1 - Arsene Wenger to admit defeat graciously in 2006
1/3 - Prince charles to take more than 2 skiing holidays in 2006
5/2 - Andrew Flintoff to be BBC Sports personality of the year again
25/1 - US constitution amended to allow Arnie to run for President
33/1 - US constitution amended to allow George W Bush to run for a third term
1000/1 - George W Bush to not misuse the word "freedom" in an ironic manner in 2006
15/1 - Wayne Rooney not to get a booking in the world cup
1/2 - Sven Goran Erikkson to quit England after the world cup
200/1 - Leeds United to win "fifa world fans of the year"
10/1 - Hollywood to make a sequel thats actually worth watching
EV - Danny Williams to retire from boxing after a routine spannering off either Skelton or Rahman
__________________
[16:09] <eJohn> im still standing
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22 Dec 2005, 22:58
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Noruega
Posts: 2,999
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
Id bet no the Rooney one tbh. Suddenly he gets injured, or maybe he gets 'nice
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"Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of War"
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22 Dec 2005, 23:17
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#3
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Caveat Lector
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Tucson, Arizona
Posts: 3,038
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by eJohn
Some bookmakers offer novelty 'year specials' - ie, Prince harry to get married, a brit to win wimbledon, the queen to abdicate, a golfer to shoot 59 or under etc etc etc.
I thought it might be interesting if we came up with some of our own and gave the odds. Serious, or comedy.
2/1 - David Cameron to announce a policy in 2006
5/1 - Arsene Wenger to admit defeat graciously in 2006
1/3 - Prince charles to take more than 2 skiing holidays in 2006
5/2 - Andrew Flintoff to be BBC Sports personality of the year again
25/1 - US constitution amended to allow Arnie to run for President
33/1 - US constitution amended to allow George W Bush to run for a third term
1000/1 - George W Bush to not misuse the word "freedom" in an ironic manner in 2006
15/1 - Wayne Rooney not to get a booking in the world cup
1/2 - Sven Goran Erikkson to quit England after the world cup
200/1 - Leeds United to win "fifa world fans of the year"
10/1 - Hollywood to make a sequel thats actually worth watching
EV - Danny Williams to retire from boxing after a routine spannering off either Skelton or Rahman
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I think you have your odds backwards, 1000/1 are pretty good odds (100,000% chance of happening). :/
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22 Dec 2005, 23:19
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#4
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Aardvark is a funny word
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: I'm No Nino Rota
Posts: 5,923
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by s|k
I think you have your odds backwards, 1000/1 are pretty good odds (100,000% chance of happening). :/
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see this is an example of when you really totally absolutely shouldnt post because you don't know what you are talking about.
__________________
Efficiency, efficiency they say
Get to know the date and tell the time of day
As the crowds begin complaining
How the Beaujolais is raining
Down on darkened meetings on the Champs Élysées
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22 Dec 2005, 23:32
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#5
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Caveat Lector
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Tucson, Arizona
Posts: 3,038
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phang
see this is an example of when you really totally absolutely shouldnt post because you don't know what you are talking about.
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I don't think I'm wrong, he's talking about 'odds' but he's using the / which is probability. Odds uses the ':' which means 'to'.
Code:
Let me clarify the difference between probability and odds. The
probability of an event is defined as:
(Chances for)
P(x) = ---------------
(Total chances)
So, for example, the probability of drawing an ace in a single deck of
52 cards is 4/52 = 1/13 (or about 0.077 = 7.7%).
Odds, on the other hand, are given as:
(Chances for) : (Chances against)
Incidentally, odds of 1:1 would be read as "one TO one", not "one OUT
OF one." (The words "out of" seem to imply total chances, which is
probability, not odds.)
The last time I checked 1000/1 means 1,000 devided by 1 which equals 1,000 which multiplied by 100 to convert to percent is 100,000%.
ref: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56706.html
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22 Dec 2005, 23:33
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,174
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
Maths has no place in the real world.
__________________
If one person is in delusion, they're called insane.
If many people are in delusion, it's called a religion.
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22 Dec 2005, 23:34
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#7
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Aardvark is a funny word
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: I'm No Nino Rota
Posts: 5,923
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by s|k
I don't think I'm wrong, he's talking about 'odds' but he's using the / which is probability. Odds uses the ':' which means 'to'.
Code:
Let me clarify the difference between probability and odds. The
probability of an event is defined as:
(Chances for)
P(x) = ---------------
(Total chances)
So, for example, the probability of drawing an ace in a single deck of
52 cards is 4/52 = 1/13 (or about 0.077 = 7.7%).
Odds, on the other hand, are given as:
(Chances for) : (Chances against)
Incidentally, odds of 1:1 would be read as "one TO one", not "one OUT
OF one." (The words "out of" seem to imply total chances, which is
probability, not odds.)
The last time I checked 1000/1 means 1,000 devided by 1 which equals 1,000 which multiplied by 100 to convert to percent is 100,000%.
ref: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56706.html
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if bookmakers odds weren't expressed as x/y you'd have a point, see. i knew what you meant. except you're wrong. so shut up and back out with as much dignity as you can muster.
__________________
Efficiency, efficiency they say
Get to know the date and tell the time of day
As the crowds begin complaining
How the Beaujolais is raining
Down on darkened meetings on the Champs Élysées
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22 Dec 2005, 23:38
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#8
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Caveat Lector
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Tucson, Arizona
Posts: 3,038
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phang
if bookmakers odds weren't expressed as x/y you'd have a point, see. i knew what you meant. except you're wrong. so shut up and back out with as much dignity as you can muster.
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:eek: Well I'm glad I learned that here and not while placing a bet.
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22 Dec 2005, 23:38
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#9
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Registered Awesome Person
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 5,676
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
I'd take the Rooney one.
Flintoff would be more like 20-1, he won't produce the same heroics again. Instead, I'd back Rooney, he'd probably be around 7-2 in my eyes.
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Finally free!
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23 Dec 2005, 00:11
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#10
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Tiny Dancer
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Yellow Brick Road
Posts: 355
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
you cant seriously think rooney wont get a yellow at all in the tournament
also, add your own.
__________________
[16:09] <eJohn> im still standing
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23 Dec 2005, 01:01
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#11
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First Disciple of Aldur
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: The Vale of Aldur
Posts: 1,470
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by eJohn
25/1 - US constitution amended to allow Arnie to run for President
33/1 - US constitution amended to allow George W Bush to run for a third term
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I think these will probably happen. Seriously.
Quote:
15/1 - Wayne Rooney not to get a booking in the world cup
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That should be: 1/15 - Wayne Rooney to get a booking in the World Cup.
1/2 - Rooney to recieve straight red card, and miss important games.
Good treble?:
10/1 - Wayne Rooney to get injured and not play in the World Cup.
2/1 - England knocked out of World Cup at Quater Final stage.
2/1- Sven blames missing Rooney for England not advancing past quarter-final stage.
Quote:
10/1 - Hollywood to make a sequel thats actually worth watching
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Erm? Hollywood has made plenty of sequels worth watching.
__________________
Yeah.
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23 Dec 2005, 02:12
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#12
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Tiny Dancer
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Yellow Brick Road
Posts: 355
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Belgarath The Sorcerer
I think these will probably happen. Seriously.
That should be: 1/15 - Wayne Rooney to get a booking in the World Cup.
1/2 - Rooney to recieve straight red card, and miss important games.
Good treble?:
10/1 - Wayne Rooney to get injured and not play in the World Cup.
2/1 - England knocked out of World Cup at Quater Final stage.
2/1- Sven blames missing Rooney for England not advancing past quarter-final stage.
Erm? Hollywood has made plenty of sequels worth watching.
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If Rooney to get booked was 1/15 and rooney not to get booked was 15/1 the Best book would be 100% so that wouldnt work. It would have to be 1/16 rooney to get a booking or something to give the bookies the 2 or 3% margin they need to make money.
Red card? Dunno about 1/2. 5/1 maybe. In fact, 15/1, hes never had a straight red has he?
Heard worse trebles.
You reckon theres a good sequel on the way in 2006?
__________________
[16:09] <eJohn> im still standing
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