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Unread 22 Dec 2005, 22:53   #1
eJohn
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Fantasy Betting for 2006

Some bookmakers offer novelty 'year specials' - ie, Prince harry to get married, a brit to win wimbledon, the queen to abdicate, a golfer to shoot 59 or under etc etc etc.

I thought it might be interesting if we came up with some of our own and gave the odds. Serious, or comedy.


2/1 - David Cameron to announce a policy in 2006

5/1 - Arsene Wenger to admit defeat graciously in 2006

1/3 - Prince charles to take more than 2 skiing holidays in 2006

5/2 - Andrew Flintoff to be BBC Sports personality of the year again

25/1 - US constitution amended to allow Arnie to run for President

33/1 - US constitution amended to allow George W Bush to run for a third term

1000/1 - George W Bush to not misuse the word "freedom" in an ironic manner in 2006

15/1 - Wayne Rooney not to get a booking in the world cup

1/2 - Sven Goran Erikkson to quit England after the world cup

200/1 - Leeds United to win "fifa world fans of the year"

10/1 - Hollywood to make a sequel thats actually worth watching

EV - Danny Williams to retire from boxing after a routine spannering off either Skelton or Rahman
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Unread 22 Dec 2005, 22:58   #2
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

Id bet no the Rooney one tbh. Suddenly he gets injured, or maybe he gets 'nice
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Unread 22 Dec 2005, 23:17   #3
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by eJohn
Some bookmakers offer novelty 'year specials' - ie, Prince harry to get married, a brit to win wimbledon, the queen to abdicate, a golfer to shoot 59 or under etc etc etc.

I thought it might be interesting if we came up with some of our own and gave the odds. Serious, or comedy.


2/1 - David Cameron to announce a policy in 2006

5/1 - Arsene Wenger to admit defeat graciously in 2006

1/3 - Prince charles to take more than 2 skiing holidays in 2006

5/2 - Andrew Flintoff to be BBC Sports personality of the year again

25/1 - US constitution amended to allow Arnie to run for President

33/1 - US constitution amended to allow George W Bush to run for a third term

1000/1 - George W Bush to not misuse the word "freedom" in an ironic manner in 2006

15/1 - Wayne Rooney not to get a booking in the world cup

1/2 - Sven Goran Erikkson to quit England after the world cup

200/1 - Leeds United to win "fifa world fans of the year"

10/1 - Hollywood to make a sequel thats actually worth watching

EV - Danny Williams to retire from boxing after a routine spannering off either Skelton or Rahman
I think you have your odds backwards, 1000/1 are pretty good odds (100,000% chance of happening). :/
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Unread 22 Dec 2005, 23:19   #4
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by s|k
I think you have your odds backwards, 1000/1 are pretty good odds (100,000% chance of happening). :/
see this is an example of when you really totally absolutely shouldnt post because you don't know what you are talking about.
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Unread 22 Dec 2005, 23:32   #5
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phang
see this is an example of when you really totally absolutely shouldnt post because you don't know what you are talking about.
I don't think I'm wrong, he's talking about 'odds' but he's using the / which is probability. Odds uses the ':' which means 'to'.

Code:
Let me clarify the difference between probability and odds. The 
probability of an event is defined as:

             (Chances for)
     P(x) = ---------------
            (Total chances)

So, for example, the probability of drawing an ace in a single deck of 
52 cards is 4/52 = 1/13 (or about 0.077 = 7.7%).

Odds, on the other hand, are given as:

     (Chances for) : (Chances against)

Incidentally, odds of 1:1 would be read as "one TO one", not "one OUT 
OF one." (The words "out of" seem to imply total chances, which is 
probability, not odds.)
The last time I checked 1000/1 means 1,000 devided by 1 which equals 1,000 which multiplied by 100 to convert to percent is 100,000%.

ref: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56706.html
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Unread 22 Dec 2005, 23:33   #6
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

Maths has no place in the real world.
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Unread 22 Dec 2005, 23:34   #7
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by s|k
I don't think I'm wrong, he's talking about 'odds' but he's using the / which is probability. Odds uses the ':' which means 'to'.

Code:
Let me clarify the difference between probability and odds. The 
probability of an event is defined as:

             (Chances for)
     P(x) = ---------------
            (Total chances)

So, for example, the probability of drawing an ace in a single deck of 
52 cards is 4/52 = 1/13 (or about 0.077 = 7.7%).

Odds, on the other hand, are given as:

     (Chances for) : (Chances against)

Incidentally, odds of 1:1 would be read as "one TO one", not "one OUT 
OF one." (The words "out of" seem to imply total chances, which is 
probability, not odds.)
The last time I checked 1000/1 means 1,000 devided by 1 which equals 1,000 which multiplied by 100 to convert to percent is 100,000%.

ref: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56706.html
if bookmakers odds weren't expressed as x/y you'd have a point, see. i knew what you meant. except you're wrong. so shut up and back out with as much dignity as you can muster.
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Unread 22 Dec 2005, 23:38   #8
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phang
if bookmakers odds weren't expressed as x/y you'd have a point, see. i knew what you meant. except you're wrong. so shut up and back out with as much dignity as you can muster.
:eek: Well I'm glad I learned that here and not while placing a bet.
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Unread 22 Dec 2005, 23:38   #9
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

I'd take the Rooney one.


Flintoff would be more like 20-1, he won't produce the same heroics again. Instead, I'd back Rooney, he'd probably be around 7-2 in my eyes.
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Unread 23 Dec 2005, 00:11   #10
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

you cant seriously think rooney wont get a yellow at all in the tournament

also, add your own.
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Unread 23 Dec 2005, 01:01   #11
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by eJohn
25/1 - US constitution amended to allow Arnie to run for President

33/1 - US constitution amended to allow George W Bush to run for a third term
I think these will probably happen. Seriously.

Quote:
15/1 - Wayne Rooney not to get a booking in the world cup
That should be: 1/15 - Wayne Rooney to get a booking in the World Cup.
1/2 - Rooney to recieve straight red card, and miss important games.

Good treble?:
10/1 - Wayne Rooney to get injured and not play in the World Cup.
2/1 - England knocked out of World Cup at Quater Final stage.
2/1- Sven blames missing Rooney for England not advancing past quarter-final stage.
Quote:
10/1 - Hollywood to make a sequel thats actually worth watching
Erm? Hollywood has made plenty of sequels worth watching.
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Unread 23 Dec 2005, 02:12   #12
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Re: Fantasy Betting for 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by Belgarath The Sorcerer
I think these will probably happen. Seriously.


That should be: 1/15 - Wayne Rooney to get a booking in the World Cup.
1/2 - Rooney to recieve straight red card, and miss important games.

Good treble?:
10/1 - Wayne Rooney to get injured and not play in the World Cup.
2/1 - England knocked out of World Cup at Quater Final stage.
2/1- Sven blames missing Rooney for England not advancing past quarter-final stage.

Erm? Hollywood has made plenty of sequels worth watching.
If Rooney to get booked was 1/15 and rooney not to get booked was 15/1 the Best book would be 100% so that wouldnt work. It would have to be 1/16 rooney to get a booking or something to give the bookies the 2 or 3% margin they need to make money.

Red card? Dunno about 1/2. 5/1 maybe. In fact, 15/1, hes never had a straight red has he?

Heard worse trebles.

You reckon theres a good sequel on the way in 2006?
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