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Unread 27 Sep 2007, 20:38   #1
milo
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Snap uk election?

Apparently Labour have started recruiting people for an election. Has anyone (tnf obviously) heard anything? I thought Labour didn't have enough money to fight one so soon. Whats the minimum warning they have to give parliment before calling an election?
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Unread 27 Sep 2007, 20:40   #2
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Re: Snap uk election?

perhaps a close eye is needed for any upcoming honours
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Unread 27 Sep 2007, 22:01   #3
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Re: Snap uk election?

The queen has to agree to dissolve parliament I guess. But it's theoretically about minimum 2-3 weeks from then to polling day. But I'm assuming the machinery of government would want more notice than that.

I can't see why Brown would want an election now though, unless he thinks there's a horrible downturn around the corner. (And even then, the economy has been so "depoliticised" that I can't see why people would look to Conservative policy to revitalise things. At the moment, it doesn't look like the Tories would have turned into a mean fighting force even with another 12 months, so why bother? Even if he wins then all he might accomplish is shortening his overall tenure as PM.
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Unread 27 Sep 2007, 22:25   #4
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Re: Snap uk election?

Dante what happened to your blog? is it gone for ever
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Unread 27 Sep 2007, 23:02   #5
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Re: Snap uk election?

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Originally Posted by Dark_Mage
Dante what happened to your blog? is it gone for ever
It was annoying me slightly so I deleted it. I'll be doing another one shortly.

The posts themselves I've backed up in eight zillion places, the content will outlive me by several centuries I would imagine.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 00:16   #6
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Re: Snap uk election?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
The queen has to agree to dissolve parliament I guess. But it's theoretically about minimum 2-3 weeks from then to polling day. But I'm assuming the machinery of government would want more notice than that.
Generally a month to six weeks' notice is given, although with the nights drawing in I guess it'll be nearer to a month between dissolution and polling day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I can't see why Brown would want an election now though, unless he thinks there's a horrible downturn around the corner. (And even then, the economy has been so "depoliticised" that I can't see why people would look to Conservative policy to revitalise things. At the moment, it doesn't look like the Tories would have turned into a mean fighting force even with another 12 months, so why bother? Even if he wins then all he might accomplish is shortening his overall tenure as PM.
He's ahead in the polls by a decent amount, voters seem to have warmed to him and both the Lib Dems and Tories are currently sitting dead in the water. The Conservatives launched a number of major policy reviews after Cameron became leader - in fact, there's been one in almost every area, ranging from the economy to crime, the health service to the environment. All of these are being concluded at the moment, and the Tory party conference's agenda shows that they're going to be debating these reviews at conference and deciding which proposals to go ahead with and which ones to ditch. Once we're into 2008, I'd expect the Conservatives to have a proper set of policies.

If Brown calls an election in the middle of the Conservative conferences, the Tories are ****ed. Nothing will be achieved when people are thinking about elections, they won't have any time to really think about their policies. In fact, if Brown really wants to be a bastard, he should announce an election on Wednesday lunchtime - Cameron's conference speech is scheduled for 2pm. No-one will pay any attention to what he says since the media will completely focus on the calling of the election.


Karl Rove would do it.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 00:36   #7
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Re: Snap uk election?

Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
Once we're into 2008, I'd expect the Conservatives to have a proper set of policies.
Quoted for astonishment.

But really? I'd be surprised if (beyond gimmicks) we see anything even marginally interesting from them. The flat rate tax thing might have been a curiousity, but I don't see the support for it, even in the mainstream-right. So beyond immigrant bashing, vague mutterings about helping people back to work and reducing targets/bureaucracy in public services, what have they got?

Either way, I was reflecting today how little it would probably matter. The next government will not only face the same issues regardless of who wins, but they'll be dealing with it in fundamentally the same way ("What's that you say...a policy to use the taxation system to incentivise renewable energy supplies? Wow!")

The only question (not of much importance as I see it) is who you view as a more competent Chief Exec.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 00:48   #8
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Re: Snap uk election?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Quoted for astonishment.

But really? I'd be surprised if (beyond gimmicks) we see anything even marginally interesting from them. The flat rate tax thing might have been a curiousity, but I don't see the support for it, even in the mainstream-right. So beyond immigrant bashing, vague mutterings about helping people back to work and reducing targets/bureaucracy in public services, what have they got?
When I say 'proper' set of policies, I'm not necessarily saying they'd be the right policies - only that they'd be set out, explained and repeated over and over by the shadow minister with the relevant brief.


As for the flat tax, an examination into it began in Autumn 2005. It seems that they decided that it would have some economic benefits, but that it'd be too difficult to introduce - so instead they're going to look towards simpler taxes and in the long-run, lower taxes. The other Conservative mantras (immigration and the rest of the populist spiel) have been floating around because it's impossible for everyone in the party to resist trotting them out each time an opportunity arises.


It's impossible for me to tell you what the Conservatives' policies are right now because, as I said earlier, the conference is there to settle all of the policy debates and reviews that they've been holding. Of course, this has all been done under the assumption that Brown won't hold an election until 2009ish (giving ministers 2 years to learn their briefs and policies inside-out). An election now really screws them over after a lot of hard work.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Either way, I was reflecting today how little it would probably matter. The next government will not only face the same issues regardless of who wins, but they'll be dealing with it in fundamentally the same way ("What's that you say...a policy to use the taxation system to incentivise renewable energy supplies? Wow!")
Non-monetary methods haven't exactly worked, have they? But yes, from your point of view I suppose the two parties (or all three, actually) are one and the same.

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
The only question (not of much importance as I see it) is who you view as a more competent Chief Exec.
Oh joy, Presidential politics.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 01:47   #9
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Re: Snap uk election?

Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
Of course, this has all been done under the assumption that Brown won't hold an election until 2009ish (giving ministers 2 years to learn their briefs and policies inside-out). An election now really screws them over after a lot of hard work.
I would hope (perhaps naively) that Gordon Brown's political intentions are not primarily shaped by a desire to score points over the current walking Zombie that is the Tory Party. If he believes in a fraction of what he is doing (and I think on the whole that politicians do tend to believe their own bullshit) then Gordon Brown would probably believe that his public policy reforms, modest iniatives and familiar prudence would lead to great success in the medium term, which he would assume would be converted into electoral success. Why risk that just so Cameron doesn't get his speech on telly?

As for Tory policy, while it's possible that they are holding in reserve some genius ideas which will capture the imagination of Britain....well, I remain to be convinced shall we say?
Quote:
Non-monetary methods haven't exactly worked, have they?
Sorry, I was unclear. I was not decrying the use of incentives in environmental politics (I'm a big believer in incentives, it's just they're often shitly applied). At this very moment I am trying to get some solar panels on some roofs at work using grant funding from DEFRA for instance. My objection is to political actors who occassionally admit that climate change (again, for example) poses a real threat to our continued affluence (if not our civilisation in it's current form) and then propose more of the same and very little else.

To take a more mundane example. At the CIH housing conference the Tory housing spokesperson apparently said there was a "housing crisis" in Britain. OK, he was in front of a bunch of housing types, but we're all familiar with the history of the word 'crisis' and that it should be used to describe a vaguely serious problem. Fair enough. I happen to agree up to a point. So what are the Tories solutions to the problem?

Quote:
Originally Posted by conservative website
help more people to afford a home of their own…
· ensure everyone has a warm, safe home - built-to-last - those least advantaged just as much as those of good fortune…
· give local communities control over how they develop…
· protect and enhance our precious environment…
· and regenerate urban Britain - building high quality homes on brownfield sites.
Even if you're not a crazed bolshevik leftist it'd be hard to distinguish the above from the recent Green Paper on Housing which promised...more help to people looking to buy....a commitment to decent homes for all....more local authority involvement in strategic planning process....big push towards environmental sustainability in new build standards and a commitment to the green belt. Deja vu anyone?

I'm not suggesting Tory policy simply isn't very good...I'm suggesting that good or bad it's seems to suffer chronically from lack of imagination (or intellectual rigour). I oppose the consequences of the right-to-buy legislation in the 80's but at least it demonstrated some will to change Britain. At least it was a genuine change (in terms of scope) to existing policy.

Quote:
But yes, from your point of view I suppose the two parties (or all three, actually) are one and the same.
While I would admit that my political leanings make a lot of mainstream political debates seem rather quaint, I don't think that's the entire issue here. On the issues I mention above I have yet to meet someone who detects real difference in policy thrust.
Quote:
Oh joy, Presidential politics.
No, worse. Presidents can at least be offering genuine alternatives. What the UK (and the US in most terms) has is managerial politics. The guy with the smoothest power point presentation and best business card wins.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 02:25   #10
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Re: Snap uk election?

I heard about the recruitment too.

Everyone became annoyed with Blair and now the Tories have the heir to Blair, some slight movement towards reducing taxation along with lots of shouting about a referendum. If the Tories win I'll be astonished.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 02:38   #11
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Re: Snap uk election?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I would hope (perhaps naively) that Gordon Brown's political intentions are not primarily shaped by a desire to score points over the current walking Zombie that is the Tory Party.
Actually, you're probably right about Brown. But Alastair Campbell would have done it

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
If he believes in a fraction of what he is doing (and I think on the whole that politicians do tend to believe their own bullshit) then Gordon Brown would probably believe that his public policy reforms, modest iniatives and familiar prudence would lead to great success in the medium term, which he would assume would be converted into electoral success. Why risk that just so Cameron doesn't get his speech on telly?
The economy's on the brink of a downturn, one that Brown couldn't blame on the Conservatives in the slightest. In fact, given that he's been Chancellor for the last 10 years, it'd mainly be his fault (or at least portrayed that way).

I probably wanked a bit too much over the potential for mucking up the Tory conference - but there is a bona fide question about whether or not to go to the polls now. Labour are haunted by the ghost of James Callaghan, who chose not to go to the polls in 1978, suffered the Winter of Discontent and lost to Thatcher the next year. Brown doesn't want to suffer that fate - but then again, he doesn't want to risk losing this election either. If you ask me, Brown's got a better chance of winning an election now (while the Tories are in disarray) than in six months time or eighteen months time (i.e. May 2008 or 2009).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
As for Tory policy, while it's possible that they are holding in reserve some genius ideas which will capture the imagination of Britain....well, I remain to be convinced shall we say?
I doubt any modern politician will demonstrate that ability, but I'm certainly willing to wait and see.

(I probably should make clear here that I'm an independent - socially liberal and economically confused - just in case anyone wants to start calling me a Tory, which I'm not)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
My objection is to political actors who occassionally admit that climate change (again, for example) poses a real threat to our continued affluence (if not our civilisation in it's current form) and then propose more of the same and very little else.
It's infuriating. However, both parties are guilty of it. The problem, in a way, is that without the full co-operation of the USA and some vague actions by China and India, the world is pretty ****ed anyway. Many people don't want to lose the things that they currently take for granted without being certain that they'll get something back in return (such as the world not going to shit).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
To take a more mundane example. At the CIH housing conference the Tory housing spokesperson apparently said there was a "housing crisis" in Britain. OK, he was in front of a bunch of housing types, but we're all familiar with the history of the word 'crisis' and that it should be used to describe a vaguely serious problem. Fair enough. I happen to agree up to a point. So what are the Tories solutions to the problem?
Without wanting to bang the same drum repeatedly, the Tory Conference should provide answers to the policy questions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Even if you're not a crazed bolshevik leftist it'd be hard to distinguish the above from the recent Green Paper on Housing which promised...more help to people looking to buy....a commitment to decent homes for all....more local authority involvement in strategic planning process....big push towards environmental sustainability in new build standards and a commitment to the green belt. Deja vu anyone?
I agree entirely. Unfortunately for several years now Labour has repeatedly failed to tackle these problems and the solutions to them are always going to be fairly similar when the two parties share many principles. The differences are always in the execution, not the aims

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I'm not suggesting Tory policy simply isn't very good...I'm suggesting that good or bad it's seems to suffer chronically from lack of imagination (or intellectual rigour). I oppose the consequences of the right-to-buy legislation in the 80's but at least it demonstrated some will to change Britain. At least it was a genuine change (in terms of scope) to existing policy.
There really doesn't seem to be much imagination in British politics today - mainly because political principles seem to have fallen by the wayside
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 04:33   #12
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Re: Snap uk election?

Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
The economy's on the brink of a downturn, one that Brown couldn't blame on the Conservatives in the slightest. In fact, given that he's been Chancellor for the last 10 years, it'd mainly be his fault (or at least portrayed that way).
now you mention it, yes - the global recession that has played out at varying speeds for five or six years is the fault of gordon brown's policies.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 08:24   #13
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Re: Snap uk election?

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now you mention it, yes - the global recession that has played out at varying speeds for five or six years is the fault of gordon brown's policies.
Yes because AmeriKKKa has complete control over our spending policies
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 11:46   #14
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Re: Snap uk election?

To stop furball whipping his cock out, I'm still unsure if the economy is on the downturn - I can't see the current mortgages crisis affecting investment. If anyone wants to argue it is - ideally in detail - go for it, I'd appreciate the arguments.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 12:21   #15
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Re: Snap uk election?

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Originally Posted by Hebdomad
To stop furball whipping his cock out, I'm still unsure if the economy is on the downturn - I can't see the current mortgages crisis affecting investment. If anyone wants to argue it is - ideally in detail - go for it, I'd appreciate the arguments.
I'm not an economist, but apparantly a downturn would be fuelled by high house prices combined with painful interest rates and increasing inflation. Supposedly a indicator of this is that the housing market is seriously starting to slow down now.


Here's what Alan Greenspan had to say.

Some guy who predicted the US sub-primes crisis (Christopher Wood)

A Time magazine article asking whether or not Britain's economy is slowing down.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 14:43   #16
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Re: Snap uk election?

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Originally Posted by furball
The Bank of England never 'bailed out Northern Rock' what is he talking about
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 14:48   #17
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Re: Snap uk election?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
The Bank of England never 'bailed out Northern Rock' what is he talking about
It's a turn of phrase, he's obviously referring to the decision of the Bank to grant emergency financial support to Northern Rock and the eventual Government guarantee of all deposits.
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 14:51   #18
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Re: Snap uk election?

But thats one of the primary reasons why central banks exist in the first place; objecting to that sort of lending is pretty much objecting to central banks altogether
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Unread 28 Sep 2007, 18:03   #19
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Re: Snap uk election?

I don't have it with me* but in Age of Extremes by Eric Hobsbawm, he refers to an economist who has this economic model that predicts when there will be an economic downturn. Apparantly, this has been pretty accurate so far*** but no-one knows why****.

Someone here has probably heard of him, but I'll look it up

*I'm in the library and have no PC in my room**
btw, deffeh what did you do about moving to Wales after?
***the book was written in 1994
****economists know little about the real world *shocker*
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