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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 19:42   #1
hyfe
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The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Well, I'm writing down my own predictions. Discuss them, or if you find them ignorant / uninteresting write your own... or if you think this is entirely crap; ignore it (seriously, please don't reply with shit posts or 'trying to be funny but not succeeding at all'-one-liners).

------------
General
General energy shortage will strike us. Techonological breakthroughs may lessen impact, but it will still happen.
The environment will become significantly harsher in parts of the world.
All this religion / clash of civilizations will be forgotten, as real problems take precedence.

Lack of oil and increasingly high transportation costs are going to force drastic changes on world trade, it may even force people to rethink our current economical systems, but I doubt it. Countries are going to become increasingly self-reliant.

US
Economic troubles are going to hit them hard. I really, really have no clue how it will affect them, they're very used to economic prosperity now; so pretty much anything can happen. It might get very ugly, it might be fine. Probably something closer to very ugly than not though, there's too much tension (riots, looting, racism and police brutality)

South America
They're going to be all right. Low on important strategic resources, high propertion of people who manage to enjoy life while being "lower middleclass'ish".

Africa
Some countries are going to become very nice places to live (as there are certainly tendencies now), some are going to become increasinly shit (-tier).

Scandinavia
Well, with the gulf stream turning, we're going to have fun weather.. probably bad enough to stop the stream of immigrants The immigrants already here are going to be increasingly more scandinavic, and we're going to keep floating long enough on our current wealth and work-ethics. Scandinavia is going to be a nice place

England
Going to be hit bad by the gulf-stream changing. Storms and the general ****ing bad weather is going to stop any riots . You're going to start choosing sane governments (after all, you're really close to Scandinavia, so you must be ok)

Europe
Lots of trouble, will pull through. No longer world-powers.

India
Will be the new hate-target for Muslims (they're well on their way with current sterilization-policies and general racism).

China
Now, China, is really going to the shitters.
Emerging, booming economy which is drastically failing to bring prosperity to the common people. New Merchant class will continue to take over the communist party and people will continue to feel less and less attached to it. The significant amount of supressed minorities will become louder and louder.

They will end up at war with Japan at some point, both due to resource/regional influence conflicts and to force attentition outwards. It will wreak both their economies.

Australia
Might be a good place to move to. Will not be too caught up regional conflicts and nobody will bother them too much.

Russia
WIll continue to be a shit place. The russians are used to it though, and will still enjoy life, get drunk, **** a lot and get on with life without too much fuss. Their economy is relf-reliant enough to ignore and laugh at the troubles the rest of the world will have. Their own complete lack of ability to choose anything resembling competent leaders and their own complete lack of any resembling self-insight / reflectivity will however ensure they won't grow into anything near a super-power. The intellegentsia will remain drunk and forgotten.
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 20:11   #2
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hyfe
All this religion / clash of civilizations will be forgotten, as real problems take precedence.
I think this is a misunderstanding of what these conflicts are "really" about. When resources start to decline that's often when you start getting more ethnic/religious/cultural conflict. The United States do not have thousands of troops in the Middle East simply because they wanted to fight some Muslims - there are strategic goals at work here too. I can only see conflicts intensifying as resources dwindle (just like in the Fallout intro sequence...)
Quote:
South America
They're going to be all right. Low on important strategic resources, high propertion of people who manage to enjoy life while being "lower middleclass'ish".
I'm not sure what you mean by low on resources - according to some estimates I've read Venezuala has larger oil reserves than Western Europe and the Far East combined. There's also strategically important reserves of nickel, iron, gas etc in the Latin American countries.

Prediction is a bit of a mugs game, there are simply too many factors at play. I doubt many people could have foretold the (relative) success of Morales and Chavez in Latin America and although something like 9/11 was on the cards for a while, the scale and success of the attack took most people by surprise (and had massive ramifications).

Having said that though, I think you can probably point towards general trends - Europe will change dramatically due to the ageing population mixed with a rapidly changing population mix. This seems to be happening broadly peacefully now, but some random event could see some sort of horrific bloodbath before the century is out. I'll probably write some more later, but meh.
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 20:11   #3
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

I read a new scientist feature a while back by Ray Kurzweil, he a guy who predicts a point where computers and AI becomes so sophisticated life as we know it would quickly end. I never read his book so I have no idea how deep his theory really were (did anybody here?)

It does seem a lot like science fiction but he predicts "the singularity" within the next few decades.

If you talk to the conspiracy theory people 2008 is a big shift in our <something spiritual> which will cause untold <something vague> on earth.

I have no clue at all.
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 20:31   #4
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Tyrant
If you talk to the conspiracy theory people 2008 is a big shift in our <something spiritual> which will cause untold <something vague> on earth.
Anything like that can be dismissed as utter bollocks in my book because you can make up an 'important' astrological event for everyday of the year.

I'm gonna look for that article you mentioned though as i find that sort of thing quite interesting, though personally i think it all has a y2k-esque ring to it.
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 20:32   #5
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

My anthropology professor and chair of the anthropology department believes that Brazil will be the next super power. :/

Also Russia is not a shit place, and never has been. Although, I wouldn't like to have been a Russian farmer in the 1930's.
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 20:35   #6
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Western Russia maybe, but eastern/northern Russia?

Hardly thriving in any sense of the word is it?
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 20:38   #7
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I think this is a misunderstanding of what these conflicts are "really" about. When resources start to decline that's often when you start getting more ethnic/religious/cultural conflict. The United States do not have thousands of troops in the Middle East simply because they wanted to fight some Muslims - there are strategic goals at work here too. I can only see conflicts intensifying as resources dwindle (just like in the Fallout intro sequence...)
I agree; I really think cultural conflicts is going to become a large deal. What I meant was, with actual poverty and economic issues hitting the western world hard, we're going to start recognizing these conflict for what they are. Ie none of this 'they hate our freedom', 'they hate women', 'they are backwards' etc shit. So yes, ethnic/religious/cultural conflicts are going to escalate, but I think the rethoric/propaganda is going to change... I might be wrong though.
Quote:
I'm not sure what you mean by low on resources - according to some estimates I've read Venezuala has larger oil reserves than Western Europe and the Far East combined. There's also strategically important reserves of nickel, iron, gas etc in the Latin American countries.
Substitute South America for Argentina / Brasil then. I don't see Latin America / Venezuela/Colombia becoming beacons of tranquility anytime soon anyways.
Quote:
Prediction is a bit of a mugs game, there are simply too many factors at play. I doubt many people could have foretold the (relative) success of Morales and Chavez in Latin America and although something like 9/11 was on the cards for a while, the scale and success of the attack took most people by surprise (and had massive ramifications).
But still, issues like China's economy booming, America's economy showing signs of weakness and US intervention in the middle east could be predicted. Anti-US movements in SA wasn't very surprising either, considering US attention being elsewhere and market-liberalism massivly failing down there in the 80's. While 9/11 gave the US an excuse to invade random places, I do believe they would have gradually attempted to extend their sphere of influence in the middle east anyways..
Quote:
Having said that though, I think you can probably point towards general trends - Europe will change dramatically due to the ageing population mixed with a rapidly changing population mix. This seems to be happening broadly peacefully now, but some random event could see some sort of horrific bloodbath before the century is out. I'll probably write some more later, but meh.
Thanks. Please do.
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 20:40   #8
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hyfe
England
Going to be hit bad by the gulf-stream changing. Storms and the general ****ing bad weather is going to stop any riots . You're going to start choosing sane governments (after all, you're really close to Scandinavia, so you must be ok)

what about the rest of britain?
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 20:45   #9
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phalon
Western Russia maybe, but eastern/northern Russia?

Hardly thriving in any sense of the word is it?
I met a lot of people from middle asia in Moscow (god the girls from there are *ridicilously* hot.. Asian flat faces with western features, best bodies ever and generally quite tall) , . they were mostly farmers, either food or opium and as such, I really don't think they will be too affected by general economic trends. They were also *Russian* and as far as I can tell from them, there was very little dissension in the terrorities still Russian.

While there are a lot of dead towns, screwed over by old Soviet industry disappearing, they're going to be alright as soon as people start moving to where there's land / jobs. They're just in a really hard transitional phase now.. but as far as I could tell, they were mostly happy living of the land.. and economic indicators really didn't do the situation there justice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Tyrant (manually quoting correctly obviously was beyond my capabalities)
I read a new scientist feature a while back by Ray Kurzweil, he a guy who predicts a point where computers and AI becomes so sophisticated life as we know it would quickly end. I never read his book so I have no idea how deep his theory really were (did anybody here?)
Considering Ai haven't gone *anywhere* since the 80's, I really really doubt it. The experts system the industry has in production-use are still considered bleeding-edge research... and when bleeding-edge research already is in production-use there is something seriously wrong.
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Last edited by hyfe; 17 Jun 2006 at 21:37.
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 20:57   #10
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

you got the worng person i didnt post that
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 22:31   #11
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I can only see conflicts intensifying as resources dwindle (just like in the Fallout intro sequence...)
War. War never changes...
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 22:37   #12
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hyfe
Substitute South America for Argentina / Brasil then. I don't see Latin America / Venezuela/Colombia becoming beacons of tranquility anytime soon anyways.
Oh, absolutley.

In terms of Latin America I would hope there would be great regional integration - this will be a slow process but may reap considerable benefits in terms of independence from the imperialist powers. There's a Chomsky talk here which touches on some of these issues.

I would say that tranquility (in one sense) is not the desired end in most parts of the world. If we take tranquil to mean peaceful and perhaps unchanging then that would imply the monstrous levels of poverty, under-development and inequality that Latin America faces being unchallenged.

I think Latin America is lucky in the sense that ethnic conflict is perhaps not as pronounced as elsewhere - they are on the whole explicitly racist societies of course, but they seem to lack some of the fullscale religious or ethnic conflict that other parts of the world has.
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 23:22   #13
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Exclamation Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hyfe
General
General energy shortage will strike us.
Disagree. There's no shortage of energy, particularily coal and nuclear. Solar, wind, etc. are becoming more competitive, although they're not yet. Energy might become more expensive, but growing economies won't notice it.
Quote:
Countries are going to become increasingly self-reliant.
Also disagree. The global economy is simply too productive to ever go back to national economies, absent some violent upheaval (which I don't see happening).
Quote:
US
Economic troubles are going to hit them hard.
Disagree. The US economy is in pretty good shape and is still one of the best places to invest in.
Quote:
South America
They're going to be all right.
Agree; although Chavez may succeed in being appointed President for Life in Venezuela.
Quote:
Africa
Some countries are going to become very nice places to live (as there are certainly tendencies now), some are going to become increasinly shit (-tier).
I think a lot more of the latter. :/
Quote:
Scandinavia
Well, with the gulf stream turning, we're going to have fun weather.. probably bad enough to stop the stream of immigrants The immigrants already here are going to be increasingly more scandinavic, and we're going to keep floating long enough on our current wealth and work-ethics. Scandinavia is going to be a nice place
Wishful thinking on the immigration front I fear.
Quote:
England
Going to be hit bad by the gulf-stream changing. Storms and the general ****ing bad weather is going to stop any riots . You're going to start choosing sane governments (after all, you're really close to Scandinavia, so you must be ok)
I don't buy the bad weather scenario, at least not in the time frame you're talking about (50 years). I think the UK will outgrow the rest of the EU (admittedly a low bar).
Quote:
Europe
Lots of trouble, will pull through. No longer world-powers.
Agree. Lots of trouble. :/
Quote:
India
Will be the new hate-target for Muslims (they're well on their way with current sterilization-policies and general racism).
The Islamists have so many hate targets that India will have to take a number. I think the Indian economy is really going to take off.
Quote:
China
Now, China, is really going to the shitters.
Emerging, booming economy which is drastically failing to bring prosperity to the common people. New Merchant class will continue to take over the communist party and people will continue to feel less and less attached to it. The significant amount of supressed minorities will become louder and louder.

They will end up at war with Japan at some point, both due to resource/regional influence conflicts and to force attentition outwards. It will wreak both their economies.
I think China will implode before that happens (similar to what happened to the Soviet Union). At least, I hope so. :/
Quote:
Australia
Might be a good place to move to. Will not be too caught up regional conflicts and nobody will bother them too much.
Austrailia will do well, they're on the Pacific rim which puts them near the center of 21st century economic growth.
Quote:
Russia
WIll continue to be a shit place.
Agree. Russians are voting with their wombs. Their fertility rate is so low that in 50 years they will have lost half their working population (and they have no large immigration rate like western Europe to help make up for it). They will probably try to muddle along selling off what's left of their natural resources to countries that can actually use them.
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Unread 17 Jun 2006, 23:30   #14
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by Tactitus
Agree; although Chavez may succeed in being appointed President for Life in Venezuela.
As far as I know, that rumour was a horrible misquote spread by the our beloved severely incompetent media. Damned if I can find any references on it now, but apparently what he wanted was for several consecutive periods to be allowed.
Quote:
Wishful thinking on the immigration front I fear.
Well, if/when the gulf-stream turns, this place is really, really going go to get bad... the question won't be if immigration ceases, it will be how many choose to remain .. only the stupid and/or stubborn ones will (in other words; pretty much everybody).
Quote:
Disagree. There's no shortage of energy, particularily coal and nuclear. Solar, wind, etc. are becoming more competitive, although they're not yet. Energy might become more expensive, but growing economies won't notice it.
Ok, I'll try to be more specific. I agree, Energy/Electricity prices won't go through the roof. As price rices, several alternative sources become viable. However, unless we make some of the overly overdue breakthroughs needed in energy-storage, fuel-prices (as in easily transportable mobile energy) might go through the roof, and if this happens, global trade will suffer (no more rubber from SA to China, cotton from Africa to China, Nike Shoes from China to US and non-sold leftovers being dumped on Russian / other second-rate markets).
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 00:42   #15
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hyfe
Scandinavia
Well, with the gulf stream turning, we're going to have fun weather.. probably bad enough to stop the stream of immigrants The immigrants already here are going to be increasingly more scandinavic, and we're going to keep floating long enough on our current wealth and work-ethics. Scandinavia is going to be a nice place
I read an interesting article in a danish newspaper a couple of years ago. It said that with the current growth rate, in 50 years there would be more muslims/immigrants/etc than there would be danish people in Denmark. Not that it's anything bad about it, but I'd love to see how that'd affect the country.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 02:47   #16
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

The only really important thing that will happen in the next 50 years* is the death of the American Empire. Empire is a perfectly natural form of international interaction and we are seeing now the death of one. Using history as an aid we shall also then see the rise of another.

Who this new empire will be is actually a much less important/exciting (or even predictable) thing than the question of how will the American Empire die?

These are exciting times. Of course the period during which the dominant empire dies is always exciting. But this is the first time that the Empire in question could actually take the rest of humanity with it if it so chose.




(and is predictable: because clearly aliens turning up and saying hello would be important but is not a predictable event)
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 03:11   #17
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

I think David Cameron will turn out to be a communist in disguise. Wouldn't that be ironic?

I think governments will pay increasing attention to a perceived 'energy crisis', even if it does not in actual fact exist. Policy will be shaped by environmental concerns.
I do not think the climate will change in any dramatic way.

Don't know about much of the other stuff.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 04:13   #18
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Exclamation Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hyfe
As far as I know, that rumour was a horrible misquote spread by the our beloved severely incompetent media. Damned if I can find any references on it now, but apparently what he wanted was for several consecutive periods to be allowed.
Well here's one reference from the beloved severely incompetent Chinese media.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadar
I read an interesting article in a danish newspaper a couple of years ago. It said that with the current growth rate, in 50 years there would be more muslims/immigrants/etc than there would be danish people in Denmark. Not that it's anything bad about it, but I'd love to see how that'd affect the country.
Other than voting in shari’a law I don't think much would change.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 04:31   #19
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
Well here's one reference from the beloved severely incompetent Chinese media.
propoganda really shouldn't work when the facts are left in:

Quote:
According to the current Venezuelan constitution, approved six years ago in a referendum, only one presidential re-election is allowed and a full presidential term is six years.
why are you extolling these silly anti-chavez lies?

EDIT: I will apologise if my maths is incorrect but to me 2006 + 6 years = 2012 not 2021
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 04:47   #20
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
The only really important thing that will happen in the next 50 years* is the death of the American Empire. Empire is a perfectly natural form of international interaction and we are seeing now the death of one. Using history as an aid we shall also then see the rise of another.

Who this new empire will be is actually a much less important/exciting (or even predictable) thing than the question of how will the American Empire die?

These are exciting times. Of course the period during which the dominant empire dies is always exciting. But this is the first time that the Empire in question could actually take the rest of humanity with it if it so chose.




(and is predictable: because clearly aliens turning up and saying hello would be important but is not a predictable event)
Well, I don't think you can apply the idea of 'empires' to the US, at least not in the sense that it will just go away like those in the past. We got more nukes ('and fuel to launch them) than London has trees. It's not like, we are all of the sudden going to become of no signficance. We also have ICANN. Why we have that I have no idea, and why that is of any matter I don't know either.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 04:56   #21
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by s|k
Well, I don't think you can apply the idea of 'empires' to the US
I can see how I might be remiss if I applied the epithet 'reader' to you

EDIT: London by the way, is not noted for the prevalence of it's trees
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 10:08   #22
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by s|k
My anthropology professor and chair of the anthropology department believes that Brazil will be the next super power. :/
That's an interesting call, but I'm not sure that Brazil has the population to become a super-power (to create a sufficient industrial base to dominate other powers). I'm leaning more towards China on the sheer weight of numbers undergoing industrialisation at this present time. But then again, China could be in a massive civil war within the next 20 years as the present ruling class dies without the dedicated replacements. Those people who should be being groomed to replace Hu Jintao (and the rest of them) are more interested in capitalism, China-style. It's not at all obvious how this will turn out.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 10:54   #23
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hyfe
As far as I know, that rumour was a horrible misquote spread by the our beloved severely incompetent media. Damned if I can find any references on it now, but apparently what he wanted was for several consecutive periods to be allowed.
Yeah. http://lanr.blogspot.com/2006/05/ass...-portrays.html

edit : Of course it's easier to slander a democratically elected leader for being undemocratic with nonsense like this then deal with our allies glorious democracies as in Saudi Arabia or Pakistan.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 11:45   #24
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by hyfe
Considering Ai haven't gone *anywhere* since the 80's, I really really doubt it. The experts system the industry has in production-use are still considered bleeding-edge research... and when bleeding-edge research already is in production-use there is something seriously wrong.
The slow progress in AI development is just easily overlooked as statistical learning in combination with neuronal networks readily solves classical "AI"-problems Good examples for this are Stanfords last years Grand Challenge Winner "Stanley" or the automatic language analysis used in military intelligence.

As Sloman did put it "we still dont know many of the questions, but we are proceeding into the right direction". That AI "hasnt gone anywhere since the 80s " is simply not true (and also it was mean of you to say that

ps: you might be interested in Visions by Michio Kaku

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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 12:07   #25
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

What I don't understand about Kurzweil's predictions (and I've not read his books so perhaps someone could fill me in) is that this AI-singularity-end-of-life-as-we-know-it stuff is all dependent on our action. Is he saying we will do this deliberately, or that it'll occur accidently when we develop a Computer Gen X1 which can build X2, which can build X3....etc? Or is this sort of thing like economic development in Marxist history - not "planned" as such but irrestibility built by incremental developments facilitated by need?

So we won't mean to "build" a singularity (or whatever) on purpose but the requirements of managing (say) information data will mean we "have" to? Maybe the capitalists will develop their own gravediggers.

Anyway, I don't really like the AI based predictions (Skynet ). I can't rationally justify it (without resorting to evo-psych) but I'd quite like the dominant life form on this planet in a few millennia to still be homo sapiens and very roughly like us today. Sure, they'll live vastly longer and consider / do things I can't even imagine, but hopefully there'll still be a link of continuity from our African ancestors x thousand years ago to the first settlers on Alpha Centauri Prime or whatnot.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 13:09   #26
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

I happen to agree that I do not think there will be any significant AI improvements in the next 50 years. AI is so much more complex than that, and I don't think it will be anytime soon that it will reach a stage of being sufficiently cognitive. There is likely to be some impressive demos though of what is to come, machines with highly sophisticated behaviour, but underneath it'll be little more than smoke & mirrors parlour tricks.

I do not think we will be breaking any significant barriers in this field for another 300 years.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 13:42   #27
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

My understanding (and i haven't read them either) is its a mixture of the two. With nano-technology factored in he is able to create smaller transistors, solar panels that are super efficient in his future world.

My hunch is he picks a number of exciting technology and takes them to an extreme while ignoring things he doesn't like. But I really don't know. Has anybody read his books?
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 13:55   #28
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

One of the problems that's faced AI is that there was a decade and a half where research into it basically stopped. Unlike traditional computer science where research has been continuous, and has seen tangible benefits (and therefore an increased propensity to step-up development), AI was left stagnant during the late 60s and through the 70s because it simply hadn't lived up to the hype that was placed upon it.

Back in the day, the field of AI had too much pressure placed upon its expected outcomes. People wanted thinking machines, machines that could make intelligent decisions, human-level natural language processing. When no effective mathematical models were being produced to exhibit this behaviour, researchers (and more importantly, investors) got disillusioned with the entire affair.

A lot of current AI research is based upon old (even Victorian-age) mathematical principles. Models of neural networks are orders of magnitude more simplistic than their biological counterparts and computational expense means that increasing their sophistication is far from trivial. However, a significant proportion of AI research is entirely new, and couldn't have taken place at any time during the past four decades. It's a cumulative process of knowledge generation as is any science, AI's problem is that it's very, very young in mathematical and even computational terms.

In 50 years, we'll have a staggering amount of computation available on the desktop, let alone for research. The current trend for AI is augmenting traditional applications with intelligent behaviour as opposed to thinking of and developing the AI killer-app. I can't see that changing any time soon.

The desire for AI that mimics cognition (or that actually thinks, depending on your perspective) isn't one that's held in the mainstream of AI research for at least two decades now; it's not got an obvious practical use. Mimicking individual biological functions is the way things are currently going since they can be used and more readily understood and reasoned about on their own - natural language processing, modelling the visual cortex, computational modelling of Alzheimers and other neurological disease, classification by artificial immune systems. People are focussing on very small aspects of the brain's function, and with some success (for instance, developing neural networks that model neural fatigue in the same way biological neurons behave when presented with certain optical illusions). Over time, sure, they could be brought together to form some computational models of the higher-level functions of the brain, though whether that could be considered thought, and whether that will ever lead to a singularity is certainly up for debate.

I quite like the current research-symbiosis between the fields of neurology and cognitive science. We observe biological structures and systems under the microscope, model them mathematically and see why there's a difference between the two, giving insight into both fields. It's a shame I didn't get on that Neuroinformatics PhD, it's the most interesting sub-field of AI to date.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 16:14   #29
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boogster
I think David Cameron will turn out to be Tony Blair in disguise. Wouldn't that be ironic?
Yeah life's funny like that.

PS If this computer doomsday crap were to happen, what would be the difficulty in us just creating a really big magnet? Two points on the matter though:

- it's hysterical to think we know enough about our minds to recreate them in any capacity within the next 50 years right?
- it's depressing that we constantly underestimate our intelligence by comparing it with a contemporary AI.

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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 17:04   #30
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boogster
I think David Cameron will turn out to be a communist in disguise. Wouldn't that be ironic?
Nope

Misuse of the the word ironic is a pet hate of mine, I'll actually reply to some real points now.

Obviously I can't predict anything with any real certainty, but I can at least argue with predictions a few other of you have made.
Referring back to the concept of the singularity that someone mentioned earlier; this is an extremely important event for the fate of humanity, in fact it can't really be over-stressed. Whether it will happen in the next 50 years or not is unknown, but I don't think it can really be said that it definitely won't. Of course we aren't close now, but the increasing pace of technological breakthroughs (I assume it still IS increasing, with Kurzwell's Law of accelerating returns etc. Making prediction even more of a mugs game). I read somewhere that some predictions put it at within 50-40 years also. One other thing to remember when thinking about the singularity is that it is not simply the creation of AI more intelligent than humans. The other reasonable way of acheiving superhuman intelligence is to somehow improve the brains we already have (which are the most fantastic devices on the planet already, by a long way imo). Of course I know as little about how this could be done as I do about building AI, but it seems sensible.

More generally, I think in 50 years we will be living far more local lives, i.e travelling less, importing/exporting less physical products. This seems sensible given the increasing rarity of fuel and the costs that will be involved to transport these products. On the flipside, we should also have a greater ability to create goods (perhaps even raw materials?) in different parts of the world. Advanced agrictulture in temperate climates growing tropical fruits is one, very basic example. I don't think it will stop there however. This will offset the difficulties to some extent.

I'm quite interested as to how the huge amount of information that is available to my generation and subsequent generations will affect the future. The "information revolution" has to be important, I'm just not certain what the effects will be. Of course this effect will gain momentum as information becomes more and more available to more people. The language barrier will make it difficult to create any kind of real global community however, which leads me to my final prediction: fewer languages.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 17:20   #31
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

you meant Moore's law (i know you know) not Kurzwell..

the application one science will have in a completely unrelated (and unforeseen) field was the general point I think. I'll try and dig up some of his predictions for the next 50 years but my memberships playing up.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 17:24   #32
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by The_Tyrant
you meant Moore's law (i know you know) not Kurzwell..
No, I'm pretty sure he meant Kurzweil's law. I hate Wikipedia but if the article's correct then it's a generalisation of Moore's law to encompass general technological progress and not just semiconductor transitor density improvements. It seems more appropriate than Moore's law here.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 17:37   #33
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

ok then, from now on I want Alan Hansons law that you "can't win with kids", when applied to the non-football world, to be refered to as The_Tyrants law.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 17:48   #34
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by The_Tyrant
ok then, from now on I want Alan Hansons law that you "can't win with kids", when applied to the non-football world, to be refered to as The_Tyrants law.
If you discovered an actual law that applied to something else then I'm sure it will be.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 17:50   #35
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

I'd argue that you can't take "progress" as exponential. therefore its neiher a fact or a law.

edit: made readable?

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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 17:56   #36
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by s|k
My anthropology professor and chair of the anthropology department believes that Brazil will be the next super power. :/

Also Russia is not a shit place, and never has been. Although, I wouldn't like to have been a Russian farmer in the 1930's.
I don't think that any reasonable person could imagine a super power that speaks Portugese. Even in the 16th century they quickly got over that idea.

Seriously however, the greatest change that will over take mankind in the next fifty years, with unknown consequences, will be in biology. Within the next 25-years we will probably see breakthroughs in aging which will extend the life expectancy of those born after that discovery by 50 years. The social and economic dislocations which will flow from that will be evident by 2056 and will require many adjustments to various governmental policies which of course the governments won't make until it is a crisis.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 17:56   #37
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
What I don't understand about Kurzweil's predictions (and I've not read his books so perhaps someone could fill me in) is that this AI-singularity-end-of-life-as-we-know-it stuff is all dependent on our action. Is he saying we will do this deliberately, or that it'll occur accidently when we develop a Computer Gen X1 which can build X2, which can build X3....etc? Or is this sort of thing like economic development in Marxist history - not "planned" as such but irrestibility built by incremental developments facilitated by need?

So we won't mean to "build" a singularity (or whatever) on purpose but the requirements of managing (say) information data will mean we "have" to? Maybe the capitalists will develop their own gravediggers. .
The singularity stuff is pseudo-science. It takes a fairly uncontroversial premises ("technology is processing faster") and then, despite having no further evidence, somehow extrapolates this to "therefore robots will take over the world and we will have infinity!!!!!!". Even aside from the lack of any real evidence, it doesnt make sense to talk about a singularity actually existing. A singularity is a feature of a mathematical model, and one which is generally undesirable since it indicates a lack of correspondence to reality.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 18:12   #38
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by Deepflow
the increasing pace of technological breakthroughs (I assume it still IS increasing, with Kurzwell's Law of accelerating returns etc.
I have no idea how you would even begin to go about quantifying something like that, and this is part of the problem with the singularity nonsense. Did the rate of technological breakthroughs increase faster in the second half of the 20th century than the first? What criteria would you even use to answer that question?

The first half of the 20th gave us quantum physics, relativity, modern logic, and the theory of computation. The second half gave us understanding of DNA, and the internet (the microchip was really just an implementation of earlier ideas rather than something new). So which half gave us more rapid progress towards the singularity? Isnt this a completely meaningless question? The same problems come up when you look more closely at other historical periods - did the second half of the 20th century really represent a greater growth of knowledge than the 50 years preceding (or following) Newton's Principia? Wasnt the Enlightenment the most rapid expansion of human knowledge ever?


edit; when he was discussing what he called "the jumping jesus phenomena" in relation to the growth of human progress, RAW used the amount of books that current knowledge could fill as his measuring stick. You could also use something like the number of academic papers being produced. But this sort of thing is fallacious, since it assumes that all books/papers have equal value, and ignores the possibility that 95% of the books/academic papers that get churned out every year are just refuse produced by the system which make no real contribution to human knowledge. I dont have anything to back this up, but I would guess that the signal:noise ratio is a lot worse now than it has ever been in the past.

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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 18:15   #39
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by dda
Seriously however, the greatest change that will over take mankind in the next fifty years, with unknown consequences, will be in biology. Within the next 25-years we will probably see breakthroughs in aging which will extend the life expectancy of those born after that discovery by 50 years. The social and economic dislocations which will flow from that will be evident by 2056 and will require many adjustments to various governmental policies which of course the governments won't make until it is a crisis.
Death and aging are a good thing. The Greeks understood this. You cannot be brave if you cannot die. I really liked the plot in Aeon Flux which addresses this. I would not mind, however, to having more time so I can learn more things, read more, etc. I also predict that the benefits from such technology will be available only to the higher classes. With a bit of creativity one can imagine a future where the wealthy become biologically different from others by engineering.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 18:55   #40
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by The_Tyrant
I'd argue that you can't take "progress" as exponential. therefore its neiher a fact or a law.

edit: made readable?
You can if you define it as something. If you want to a socio-economic cross-index for "progress" then it's not that difficult.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 19:04   #41
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

do you think thats a suitable definition of progress?
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 21:45   #42
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by The_Tyrant
do you think thats a suitable definition of progress?
Well we could have an international quorum of the top linguists in the world to decide what it means if you want but since I called the last one to define the word "good" they haven't been listening to me as much so you might have to get them together yourself unfortunately.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 21:49   #43
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

i'll get right on it.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 21:51   #44
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by s|k
With a bit of creativity one can imagine a future where the wealthy become biologically different from others by engineering.
I think if there are (growing) biological differences between individuals (or groups) there would probably be social upheaval and perhaps segregation as a result. It's not clear whether most people would want to live surrounded by people that radically "different" to them. It's all a bit cyberpunk, but you could easily imagine new social spaces having to develop to seperate "norms" from "enhanceds" or whatever.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 22:05   #45
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by s|k
I also predict that the benefits from such technology will be available only to the higher classes. With a bit of creativity one can imagine a future where the wealthy become biologically different from others by engineering.
Only if you start out with a bizarre set of Marxist premises that have "the wealthy" being engaged in some kind of class war against "the poor". But if we choose not to assume this, there is no obvious reason why "the higher classes" (whoever or whatever they are) would conspire to keep the price of genetic engineering at a level above that which "the lower classes" could afford. In general you make more money selling fairly cheap products to the mass market than you do selling expensive products to a select few, which is why the price of most goods falls over time and we dont have 'the rich' driving around in automobiles while the rest of us are stuck with horses and carts.

Genetic engineering, like everything else, will almost certainly start at a price-level that only the wealthy can afford, and then drop gradually until most people are able to afford it if they want it badly enough (cosmetic surgery is a good analogy). Isnt capitalism wonderful?

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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 22:18   #46
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by Nodrog
But if we choose not to assume this, there is no obvious reason why "the higher classes" (whoever or whatever they are) would conspire to keep the price of engineering at a level above that which "the lower classes" could afford.
I don't think anyone is really saying it would be a conspiracy. The point would be that, as you say, these things would be on offer to a subset of society first. How long this period would be until everyone could have it is debatable - we've had a lot of medicenes for decades yet a good proportion of the world's population can't afford them. I'm not sure what time period you think is acceptable for AIDS drugs to become affordable to everyone, but I doubt it's the same time period an AIDS sufferer in Tanzania would have in mind. When you're dealing with a situation where large portions of the world have practically nothing to bargain with in the market place it seems strange to assume genetic enhancement would drop to their price level quickly (after all, how long have we had the technology for sanitation - or food for that matter?)

Anyway, the difference with cosmetic surgery is that this genetic enhancement might prove to be some insurmountable advantage to one group of people. You wouldn't necessarily need laws (as in Gattaca), it might simply be that it became near impossible to advance beyond a certain point unless one had this "enhancement". It depends on the nature of the change you're talking about. If it was something that offered a slightly better memory then I doubt it would make much difference, but since we're effectively talking about science fiction it could be an enhancement to the point where "homo superior" would look at the rest of us like we'd look at retards. If it was closer to the latter one could easily imagine a situation where the costs might remain prohibitive and a ghetto effect could be in place and social mobility might be difficult.

I'm not overly worried about it of course, but I think it's a bit glib to assume that capitalism is going to sort everyone out when we can't even feed the world's population at the moment.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 22:32   #47
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I think if there are (growing) biological differences between individuals (or groups) there would probably be social upheaval and perhaps segregation as a result. It's not clear whether most people would want to live surrounded by people that radically "different" to them. It's all a bit cyberpunk, but you could easily imagine new social spaces having to develop to seperate "norms" from "enhanceds" or whatever.

Is it really that abstract a concept? hollywood/tv 'stars' don't generally 'look' like anyone else they also undertake numerous nosejobs/boobjobs/chinjobs/blowjobs to 'look' 'fresh' 'new/different'. The hoi polloi don't rebel and say the skeletor-ethiopian-with-comedy-blowup-breasts look is amusingly sad or perhaps unhealthy, they just try to be as thin as possible regardless of whether 'looking thin' as opposed to 'being healthy' is desirable. If genetic engineering results in a drasitcally different appearance in the rich i don't see any problems unless there isn't a meritocracy that enables people to gain wealth inorder to ape their idols.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 22:37   #48
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Well I'll be honest and say that I dont particularly care about the global population in this context (and your arguments are disingenuous anyway - the majority of people living in capitalist countries are well fed and can afford medicine, including AIDS drugs. We are not generally responsible for the poverty of places like Africa).

Quote:
Anyway, the difference with cosmetic surgery is that this genetic enhancement might prove to be some insurmountable advantage to one group of people. You wouldn't necessarily need laws (as in Gattaca), it might simply be that it became near impossible to advance beyond a certain point unless one had this "enhancement".
This is true, but again, theres no obvious reason why the people who had reached this level would be so eager to pull the ladder up behind them, unless we were already starting out with the premises of class/race/whatever war. Not to mention the fact that a minority of the population achieving superhuman intelligence would probably benefit everyone else anyway (imagine how further ahead we would be if we had had 1000 Einstein's rather than just 1).
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 22:37   #49
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
If genetic engineering results in a drasitcally different appearance in the rich i don't see any problems
I am not talking about (just) appearance. I am talking about living in a city where people are perhaps radically faster, stronger, smarter or with some sort of other abilities. OK, this is fairly ridiculous but I'd feel uncomfortable dealing with people who were empathic on some level or were smart to the point where they could basically predict my actions (or something like that). I'm not saying these things are likely or even possible but it goes a bit beyond "the new elite will be two inches taller thanks to genetic engineering". Of course, we already share a space with people smarter, taller, etc - but there is an issue of degree here. Going back to appearance, it doesn't matter if people are 4ft or 7ft, but if I lived in a town full of actual giants it might be a bit impractical.
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Unread 18 Jun 2006, 22:46   #50
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

If you also have the ability to undergo a transformation process why would you be at all worried about it? If the uber leets keep their tech to themselves id understand but otherwise the 'look competitiveness' already exists, bring tech into it isn't radically differently
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