Peak Oil

[s|k]

I think the whole 'peak oil' scare is mostly unscientific hysteria, but I kind of wanted to get the opinions from the educated GD masses. I think energy is obviously a big concern, but what are your thoughts?

[Dante Hicks]

What do you mean by 'unscientific'? At it's most basic level, it's a truism. There is a limited amount of oil, production will peak at some point, a declining output would have an effect on prices, etc...all seems fairly straight forward.

The only real debate seems to involve when this peak might take place (we've been told the Saudi's will hit there's in the next few years) and what consequences this will have.

[KoeN]

Originally Posted by Dante Hicks

What do you mean by 'unscientific'? At it's most basic level, it's a truism. There is a limited amount of oil, production will peak at some point, a declining output would have an effect on prices, etc...all seems fairly straight forward.

The only real debate seems to involve when this peak might take place (we've been told the Saudi's will hit there's in the next few years) and what consequences this will have.

http://www.peakoil.com/

for more info.

imo it's not just a 'big concern', but the biggest challenge humanity has to face the next century. the subject interests me.

[s|k]

Originally Posted by Dante Hicks

What do you mean by 'unscientific'? At it's most basic level, it's a truism. There is a limited amount of oil, production will peak at some point, a declining output would have an effect on prices, etc...all seems fairly straight forward.

The only real debate seems to involve when this peak might take place (we've been told the Saudi's will hit there's in the next few years) and what consequences this will have.

I'm not saying that oil is not limited. I'm not referring to Peak Oil in the sense that oil production will eventually peak and then decline. I'm talking about the Peak Oil histeria such as any google search for 'peak oil' will bring up:

Peak Oil: Peak Oil means the end of cheap energy and the end of western civilization as we know it.

It's a bunch of doomsday sayers out there predicting that life will fall apart, facists will rise, holocausts ensue, moms will eat their babies, etc..

http://www.google.com/search?ie=UTF-...eak+oil&tab=iw

[s|k]

Originally Posted by KoeN

http://www.peakoil.com/

for more info.

imo it's not just a 'big concern', but the biggest challenge humanity has to face the next century. the subject interests me.

Hysteria minded people like Koen for instance. I bet all the peak oil people were either thinking about building a bomb shelter for the Y2K bug, or were actually doing it.

[JonnyBGood]

Oh no, life will get slightly more expensive! What a challenge mankind has never faced before. The scale of this catastrophe is overwhelming*.






















*ly gay

[KoeN]

Originally Posted by s|k

Hysteria minded people like Koen for instance. I bet all the peak oil people were either thinking about building a bomb shelter for the Y2K bug, or were actually doing it.

last year i completed a minor on the subject, next year i will start with the masterdegree.
i've studied it all quite a bit; enough to atleast form my own opinion about things.

i don't know who the **** you are to call me 'hysteria minded'. please do explain. :crymeariver:

kthnxbye.

[JonnyBGood]

You can do a minor in David Beckham studies but I'd still consider anyone who studied it and told me that when he retires from football the world will end a ****ing quack.

[s|k]

Originally Posted by KoeN

last year i completed a minor on the subject, next year i will start with the masterdegree.
i've studied it all quite a bit; enough to atleast form my own opinion about things.

i don't know who the **** you are to call me 'hysteria minded'. please do explain. :crymeariver:

kthnxbye.

You have a minor in world catastrophe? Or a minor in geology? Or maybe it's in economics? Really what do you have a minor in that leads one to follow that the world will collapse and everyone will die when 'peak oil' is reached?

[KoeN]

Originally Posted by JonnyBGood

You can do a minor in David Beckham studies but I'd still consider anyone who studied it and told me that when he retires from football the world will end a ****ing quack.

people like you are exactly the reason why i hardly ever bother posting in serious topics on this forums. your opinion means little to nothing to me tbh, just as much as my ideas wouldn't interest you in the slightest either.

[KoeN]

Originally Posted by s|k

You have a minor in world catastrophe? Or a minor in geology? Or maybe it's in economics? Really what do you have a minor in that leads one to follow that the world will collapse and everyone will die when 'peak oil' is reached?

i hope to get rich on people like you one day.

[JonnyBGood]

Originally Posted by KoeN

people like you are exactly the reason why i hardly ever bother posting in serious topics on this forums. your opinion means little to nothing to me tbh, just as much as my ideas wouldn't interest you in the slightest either.

:crymeariver:

[s|k]

Originally Posted by KoeN

i hope to get rich on people like you one day.

On people who have no money? :/

[MrL_JaKiri]

Originally Posted by KoeN

people like you are exactly the reason why i hardly ever bother posting in serious topics on this forums. your opinion means little to nothing to me tbh, just as much as my ideas wouldn't interest you in the slightest either.

If your "serious posts" don't contain any actual argument then it's no surprise that you're not taken seriously.

[Nodrog]

We'd use a lot less crude oil if the anti-science enviornmentalist faggots got over their irrational luddite-inspired hatred of nuclear power.

[KoeN]

Originally Posted by s|k

On people who have no money? :/

no, americans.

[furball]

Originally Posted by Nodrog

We'd use a lot less crude oil if the anti-science enviornmentalist faggots got over their irrational luddite-inspired hatred of nuclear power.

Agreed, worryingly.

[Tactitus]

One artifact of higher oil prices* is that unconventional oil sources such as tar sands, oil shale, coal gassification, etc become economically viable. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your point of view) North America is to unconventional oil deposits what the middle east is/was to conventional oil deposits.

There's plenty of oil (for the short to medium term), it's just a question of what it's going to cost. Eventually oil may become genuinely scarce if we don't develop/switch to cheaper sources of energy.




*When considering oil prices you have to look at the real inflation-adjusted prices, not the unadjusted prices on which the media usually fixates.

[Dante Hicks]

Originally Posted by s|k

Really what do you have a minor in that leads one to follow that the world will collapse and everyone will die when 'peak oil' is reached?

I'm not really sure he said that.

Clearly everyone is not going to die when peak is reached. However, there will be issues. Prices will be pushed upwards (probably, unless demand slumps dramatically due to recession or some other uber energy source has been introduced by then). This is not necessarily a problem - as Tact has indicated higher oil costs will incentivise other energy sources (including renewable sources) and energy efficiency schemes. Much higher oil prices might also benefit the environment too.

However, where the debate seems to centre is how markets will react. Since this will (theoretically) not be a short-term supply slump but a permanent feature of the market, rational market behaviour might push the prices continually higher.

If the prices rise too dramatically then there will be all maner of consequences. General commodity prices will go up (as transport costs have a knock-on effect), millions of people will be unable to cheaply heat their homes which combined with a harsh winter will lead to quite a few old people dying (it is said this is already happening). Welfare systems in Europe are based on certain assumptions on cost of living - if these are "broken" by energy costs spiking then the whole sorry mess could collapse. Ditto to personal debt. If my transport, food & energy costs doubled in a six month period for instance, I'd simply have no option but to default on my various loans/borrowings. I doubt I am alone on that. The issue is the rate of change, if this happens over the course of years or decades then we will be able to manage the transition much more effectively.

Further speculation is possible (economic crisis could increase ethnic conflicts or wars between states scrambling for resources) but probably unhelpful - we simply don't know and there's nothing we can do now to avert that stage of events (apart from promoting brotherly <3).

So yeah, the world won't end or anything, but it could be bad and it's worth trying to do what we can now (e.g. cutting fuel use, promoting alt energy sources, cutting energy use generally) rather than waiting for it happen. There might be too many hysterical doomesday predictors out there, but I'm not sure the antidote is to put our collective feet up and say "Don't worry about it, something will show up just in the nick of time."