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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 12:18   #101
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Define "more advanced" however you want really.
We were speaking about technology so I'd assume he didn't randomly switch topics there and agree with him. In terms of things like percentage of people going hungry and absolute number going hungry I'd disagree with him if he meant that by more advanced.

Quote:
I am probably being unfair, but I find it difficult to take this post any other way as it reads like a rather poor justification for imperialism.
I think you're reading a moral context into nod's post that wasn't there.

Quote:
Well obviously some predictions are more likely than others. That's simply a truism. I think his point is that over this much historical distance you cannot simply accept trends as meaningul - too many things could have occurred to speak with any certainty, especially when trying to justify various atrocities.
I wouldn't find the historical distance involved to be excessive. Sure specifics are difficult, but general trends influence general trends. The idea that if Europe just sodded off phasers would have been invented in Africa is ludicrous at best.
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 12:26   #102
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boogster
Let me introduce you to new facets of the word. Blair being a Conservative in disguise, it would be ironic if a Conservative leader turned out to be a communist in disguise.

The irony is faint and not very funny, but it is there.
You haven't actually explained yourself. You've just said "I am rite".

Something is ironic when two interpretations can be made of it's meaning, with one of those interpretations being visible to two listeners and one to only one. It has to involve both people who can understand the full ramifications of what is being said and some who can't. When done on stage, the other characters are often only aware of one, whilst the audience know the entire picture.

For example, I was watching Frasier last night and he was doing a political broadcast for a politician. There was a run-through of the speech he made, due to Frasiers position as a psychiatrist it involved many phrases expressing the candidates psychological advantages over his fear-mongering opponent. With phrases such as "John Patterson, the sane choice".
After the run-through, Frasier spoke to the budding congressman on the balcony and out there he admitted to Frasier that he was abducted by aliens six years ago. Then the speech was run through again, but this time every word relating to his mental state was tinged with irony, as both the audience and the character of Frasier knew that what he was saying was most likely incorrect. The irony was highlighted by the forced and apparently difficult delivery by Frasier, showing the struggle between him to continue to support the congressman whilst knowing he was talking rubbish.
Granted, that isn't the best example I could have used, but it's the last one I remember.

Actually, looking at dictionary.com before I posted this I can see that definition 2a might be what you were thinking of:
"2.a Incongruity between what might be expected and what actually occurs: “Hyde noted the irony of Ireland's copying the nation she most hated” (Richard Kain). "

If this were actually the case, then clearly Cameron being a communist in disguise is ironic without Tony Blair needing to have been a Conservative in disguise (without going into the argument that he wasn't actually in disguise and that's the whole reason he was elected). So perhaps you were right, but I very much dislike this definition of irony, it seems cheap and common and can apply to anything which happened unexpectedly (to a certain degree). In my opinion it cheapens the word which is best used in the way I first described.
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 12:30   #103
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Posting in support of MrL.
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 12:44   #104
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
Posting in support of MrL.
Well he is pretty much the only person so far in this thread not to have made a fool of himself
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 17:57   #105
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
As I quoted in my above post (again) milo does not seem to be in agreement.

?


Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
I wouldn't find the historical distance involved to be excessive. Sure specifics are difficult, but general trends influence general trends. The idea that if Europe just sodded off phasers would have been invented in Africa is ludicrous at best.

In the absence of a definitive measurement of history in our reality, its equally valid to state (or silly as i pointed out) any other alternate reality could have occured. Saying they would have amounted to nothing is as meaningless a statement as saying they'd have invented phasers.

This isn't in the immediate sense that we just happened to stop their phaser development but beyond a generation or so, when colonialism became entrenched you can't make any statements.

To reiterate what i said

Quote:
If you want to say you didn't think much of the way those people lived their lives at the time we invaded fine, but it can only apply to that time and nothing else.
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 18:10   #106
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Obviously we're not talking in rock hard certainities. There's a 1 x 10^-999999999999999 chance the universe might have spontaneously combusted but we're not talking about ridiculous long shots. We're talking probable development. Given the prequisites for the industrial revolution, the simple fact that western civilisation has technologically developed as quickly as it has due the exploitation of resources in colonies outside of Europe, the fact that industrial development has NEVER occurred "overnight" anywhere, the cultural impediments to the free exchange of ideas, the lack, in many places, of suitable domesticable animals for the even gradual spread and a myriad of other reasons I'm not going to list because the football is back on while making certain predictions is de facto impossible making probable, and highly probable, and staggeringly unlikely predictions is not. So
Quote:
Someone from those colonial nations could say with equal irrationality that they'd have invented phasers and a cure to aids [as opposed to amounting to "nothing"]
is wrong. Because saying they'd have invented phasers is much more irrational* than saying they'd have amounted to nothing. We're not simpletons, we don't have to deal in certainties, we can deal with probabilities and logic.








*Not endowed with reason.
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 18:41   #107
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

I don't understand how you're assessing 'probable development' even in the non rigorous context we're taking


Any 'probable development' would inherently be a statistical path process that would depend on what data we had on every step - of that path - that society took. By evaluating the path we'd be able to assess the likelyhood of particular events occuring.

In the absence of that process, if we don't have any definitive data and don't go into 'parallel universes' or such, any events become equally invalid. You can't map to certain events and say this would have occured.
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 20:01   #108
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by milo
I don't understand how you're assessing 'probable development' even in the non rigorous context we're taking


Any 'probable development' would inherently be a statistical path process that would depend on what data we had on every step - of that path - that society took. By evaluating the path we'd be able to assess the likelyhood of particular events occuring.

In the absence of that process, if we don't have any definitive data and don't go into 'parallel universes' or such, any events become equally invalid. You can't map to certain events and say this would have occured.
No you can't, but you can say that this probably would have occurred, and that almost certainly would have occurred and that might have occurred etc etc. If you aren't willing to discuss degrees of probability then what the hell are you in a thread about the next fifty years for?
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 20:16   #109
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I am probably being unfair, but I find it difficult to take this post any other way as it reads like a rather poor justification for imperialism.
or a justification of communism.

Honestly...
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 20:22   #110
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
In what way?
In the way that trying to discuss anything with either you or Dante always ends up like a perverse return to student life in the 1980s.

No argument is ever read on it's means. It is mercilessly hunted through until one of you can pounce upon any link (no matter how tenuous) that you can exploit in order to start discussing the so called 'evils of capitalism'.

That post of Gordon's is a fine point and a well structured mini argument and it get's dismissed out of hand just because you two can not control you fanaticism.
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 20:31   #111
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
No you can't, but you can say that this probably would have occurred, and that almost certainly would have occurred and that might have occurred etc etc. If you aren't willing to discuss degrees of probability then what the hell are you in a thread about the next fifty years for?


Not in any meaningful use of the word 'probably' i came to the thread because i want blonde hair blue eyes and massive boobs like Brody Dalle. Admitedly you could say this is as meaningless as anything but i suppose its the difference between what could happen and what could have happened.
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 20:47   #112
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
You haven't actually explained yourself. You've just said "I am rite".

Something is ironic when two interpretations can be made of it's meaning, with one of those interpretations being visible to two listeners and one to only one. It has to involve both people who can understand the full ramifications of what is being said and some who can't. When done on stage, the other characters are often only aware of one, whilst the audience know the entire picture.

[Frasier...]

Actually, looking at dictionary.com before I posted this I can see that definition 2a might be what you were thinking of:
"2.a Incongruity between what might be expected and what actually occurs: “Hyde noted the irony of Ireland's copying the nation she most hated” (Richard Kain). "

If this were actually the case, then clearly Cameron being a communist in disguise is ironic without Tony Blair needing to have been a Conservative in disguise (without going into the argument that he wasn't actually in disguise and that's the whole reason he was elected). So perhaps you were right, but I very much dislike this definition of irony, it seems cheap and common and can apply to anything which happened unexpectedly (to a certain degree). In my opinion it cheapens the word which is best used in the way I first described.
Basically, no one really knows what irony means any more. Its popular meaning seems to have subsumed 'incongruity'. All the same, it seems a bit silly to ignore a word's modern definition because it seems 'cheap and common'.

I still think my statement was cheifly ironic in a way you have missed: I was implicitly referring back to Blair's dishonesty (obviously, this is a personal opinion of mine) and so the irony is found in simultaneously recognising that if Cameron should turn out to be a communist he would be a liar and a hypocrite, and the realisation that we have already been deceived in this way by Blair.

'Where irony springs up as a response to being lied to (by authority, or prevailing culture, or whatever), it is still adhering loosely to Chaucer's model - it states the lie in order to expose the lie, and is therefore a route to truth.'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/weekend/st...985375,00.html

It was interesting to consider how irony works though. More interesting than predicting the future, I reckon.
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 20:54   #113
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

In the wikipedia page for irony there is a lovely little quote which illustrates what I was trying to say far better.

"Irony is a form of utterance that postulates a double audience, consisting of one party that hearing shall hear and shall not understand, and another party that, when more is meant than meets the ear, is aware, both of that “more” and of the outsider’s incomprehension."

As far as I'm concerned this is what irony should be, but you are correct in saying that the popular meaning is looser and your post could be used in that sense. I apologise for my curt dismissal of it earlier, although I personally won't be using that definition in the future as I consider it inelegant.

Anyway, let's leave irony in this thread for now as the rest of it is still far too interesting for us to derail it
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Unread 19 Jun 2006, 20:56   #114
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
In the wikipedia page for irony there is a lovely little quote which illustrates what I was trying to say far better.

"Irony is a form of utterance that postulates a double audience, consisting of one party that hearing shall hear and shall not understand, and another party that, when more is meant than meets the ear, is aware, both of that “more” and of the outsider’s incomprehension."

As far as I'm concerned this is what irony should be, but you are correct in saying that the popular meaning is looser and your post could be used in that sense. I apologise for my curt dismissal of it earlier, although I personally won't be using that definition in the future as I consider it inelegant.

Anyway, let's leave irony in this thread for now as the rest of it is still far too interesting for us to derail it
You are referring specifically to dramatic irony. This is where my English degree becomes useful.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 07:05   #115
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
Not in any meaningful use of the word 'probably' i came to the thread because i want blonde hair blue eyes and massive boobs like Brody Dalle. Admitedly you could say this is as meaningless as anything but i suppose its the difference between what could happen and what could have happened.
Probably as in "more likely". What on earth version of the word do you use?
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:12   #116
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
Probably as in "more likely". What on earth version of the word do you use?

the one that doesn't apply statistical tools to alternate universes
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:16   #117
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
the one that doesn't apply statistical tools to alternate universes
Yeah because lord knows if Columbus hadn't gone west in search of the east the entire foundation of mathematics would have broken down and the universe would have imploded leaving behind an endless series of Seinfeld reruns.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:18   #118
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by Yahwe
No argument is ever read on it's means. It is mercilessly hunted through until one of you can pounce upon any link (no matter how tenuous) that you can exploit in order to start discussing the so called 'evils of capitalism'.
There are very few posts in this thread about the evils of capitalism (or lack thereof) so I'm not sure what you're talking about. The first person to bring it up was Nod talking about wasn't capitalism wonderful (a comment I did not bother disagreeing with in this thread).

Speaking more generally, statistically I am far more likely to talk about rights or drugs than I am about capitalism*.

* The search function estimates this at a rough 3:2:1 ratio respectively.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:20   #119
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

the free loading bastard could have sunk off the azores or reached the west indies and decide to **** spain and live it up
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:21   #120
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
There are very few posts in this thread about the evils of capitalism (or lack thereof) so I'm not sure what you're talking about. The first person to bring it up was Nod talking about wasn't capitalism wonderful (a comment I did not bother disagreeing with in this thread).

Speaking more generally, statistically I am far more likely to talk about rights or drugs than I am about capitalism*.

* The search function estimates this at a rough 3:2:1 ratio respectively.
Maybe a question that should be asked is whether or not the economic/social system we implement should fix prior existing injustices which have led to widespread disparities in terms of opportunity and reward.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:24   #121
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
the free loading bastard could have sunk off the azores or reached the west indies and decide to **** spain and live it up
Still not sure why probability would have failed to work.


Maybe in a decent alternate universe this shitty argument would have turned into a monster and eaten the entire internet.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:24   #122
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

No we shouldn't, if anything is implemented it should be done for future reward*




* that said it could be any particular system, im swinging between nods capitalism and t&fs particular brand of jobs are meaningless boring and shit and you can barely afford anything with them.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:26   #123
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
Still not sure why probability would have failed to work.


Maybe in a decent alternate universe this shitty argument would have turned into a monster and eaten the entire internet.

Well it all has to do with the axiom of choice, the choice function you use and the dangers of the axiom of choice in answering anything you want.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:27   #124
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

You're looking at a huge problem in terms of how you deal with long-term refugees then. If you stick a million people in a camp with two square metres of living space, build yourself a mansion on the land, kill yourself and leave it to your son, kill everyone who ever owned that land but leave their children do those children have no right to any land?
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:31   #125
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by milo
Well it all has to do with the axiom of choice, the choice function you use and the dangers of the axiom of choice in answering anything you want.
Each outcome isn't equally likely though. There's a staggeringly high chance that you won't spontaneously combust after reading this line but a rather less likely outcome of you choosing not to reply. It's really not that different from any prediction concerning the future. You're just assuming a different set of facts for a particular point in time.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:32   #126
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
You're looking at a huge problem in terms of how you deal with long-term refugees then. If you stick a million people in a camp with two square metres of living space, build yourself a mansion on the land, kill yourself and leave it to your son, kill everyone who ever owned that land but leave their children do those children have no right to any land?

Since it isn't based on any merit on their behalf id say no, though there is a counter argument that since you earned your money you should be able to do what you want with it, assuming we take a parallel with inheritance.

In you analogy its between the kids, if my kids want to give up some land they can, if they don't want to their 'gain' is as morally right as the other kids 'loss'. They both inherited from their parents.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:32   #127
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
Maybe a question that should be asked is whether or not the economic/social system we implement should fix prior existing injustices which have led to widespread disparities in terms of opportunity and reward.
If there is existing injustice then we should fix it, that seems to be a no-brainer. Obviously we can't "fix" the past as such (I know you never said that of course) which is why the reparation debate always seemed vaguely ridiculous to me.

More generally the basic position is : we should be trying to make sure everyone is OK. I know that's a banal and rather obvious point, but I'm not actually interested who is to "blame" for the hungry or destitute particularly. Sure, we can get righteously angry about the evils of the white man and of capitalism, but does it matter? Let's try to solve things asap plz.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:33   #128
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
In you analogy its between the kids, if my kids want to give up some land they can, if they don't want to their 'gain' is as morally right as the other kids 'loss'. They both inherited from their parents.
This is presuming inheritance (of land) is morally "right" which is hardly a given.

edit : Did you mean "earn" here, Jonny was talking about theft and murder.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:35   #129
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
In you analogy its between the kids, if my kids want to give up some land they can, if they don't want to their 'gain' is as morally right as the other kids 'loss'. They both inherited from their parents.
While this is rather similar to my own opinion on the matter I'd agree with dante above that certain problems, due to their extreme nature and the problems that naturally arise from them, require some form of compromise on the issue, regardless of what "your child" desires.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:38   #130
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
Each outcome isn't equally likely though. There's a staggeringly high chance that you won't spontaneously combust after reading this line but a rather less likely outcome of you choosing not to reply. It's really not that different from any prediction concerning the future. You're just assuming a different set of facts for a particular point in time.

when you say 'high chance' you're dealing with frequency based tools which we don't really use at all.

What you're basically trying to say is that you can link together whatever sets* you want because its 'logical' (to you). What im saying is that the axiom of choice says that the used condoms MM raped dace with could be grouped with yahwe's booze, just because it could be grouped doesn't mean it says any thing of value. Since you can't get any data to differentiate one way or the other (because its all in an alternate universe) it all becomes equally invalid (to me).


*inventions/whatyouthinkisenevitable etc
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:41   #131
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
This is presuming inheritance (of land) is morally "right" which is hardly a given.

edit : Did you mean "earn" here, Jonny was talking about theft and murder.

Even if there was theft and murder id only say there was any obligation on the decendants of the theifs and murderers if they actively kept the other kids down. I don't see why they should be held morally accountable for something they took no active part in.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:42   #132
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
when you say 'high chance' you're dealing with frequency based tools which we don't really use at all.

What you're basically trying to say is that you can link together whatever sets* you want because its 'logical' (to you). What im saying is that the axiom of choice says that the used condoms MM raped dace with could be grouped with yahwe's booze, just because it could be grouped doesn't mean it says any thing of value. Since you can't get any data to differentiate one way or the other (because its all in an alternate universe) it all becomes equally invalid (to me).


*inventions/whatyouthinkisenevitable etc
You have data, it's historical and inductive.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:44   #133
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
I don't see why they should be held morally accountable for something they took no active part in.
So you can be rewarded for your fathers good work (i.e. inheritance) but you can't be punished for his sins?

(I actually agree that you can't be morally accountable but then I don't agree with inheritance so I don't see any conflict there)
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:46   #134
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

ah but i don't; i have data up until that society effectively ceases to exist, we take a path approach to this evaluation wrt that society, when we invade and 'change' them we don't have any data on what they 'might' have done if we didnt 'change' them. You could take a crudely deterministic approach to this (if that were possible) but you'd still have to deal with deterministic chaos, besides human society is anything but deterministic.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:48   #135
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
ah but i don't; i have data up until that society effectively ceases to exist, we take a path approach to this evaluation wrt that society, when we invade and 'change' them we don't have any data on what they 'might' have done if we didnt 'change' them. You could take a crudely deterministic approach to this (if that were possible) but you'd still have to deal with deterministic chaos, besides human society is anything but deterministic.
You have data on how other societies did develop though. Broadly speaking human societies have shown many remarkably similar developmental traits.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:49   #136
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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So you can be rewarded for your fathers good work (i.e. inheritance) but you can't be punished for his sins?

(I actually agree that you can't be morally accountable but then I don't agree with inheritance so I don't see any conflict there)

ah ****, ok since debt can be transfered neither should wealth.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:52   #137
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
You have data on how other societies did develop though. Broadly speaking human societies have shown many remarkably similar developmental traits.

yeah so you're using the axiom of choice there, which is fine, but im wary of it. Even if you took what other human societies did you could take whatever 'traits' you wish, im sure someone somewhere did remarkably well in rising from nothing to uber gods or something.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 10:58   #138
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by milo
yeah so you're using the axiom of choice there, which is fine, but im wary of it. Even if you took what other human societies did you could take whatever 'traits' you wish, im sure someone somewhere did remarkably well in rising from nothing to uber gods or something.
Eh? I'm not saying some of them are similar, I'm saying they're pretty much all really similar. Some of them are more accelerated over certain periods, that's really been the only key difference. That difference is due to external circumstances, which is what we're talking about changing! I don't quite get who you're referring to with that "uber gods" comment.

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ah ****, ok since debt can be transfered neither should wealth.
So what are we going to do with all this land then?
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 11:03   #139
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
Eh? I'm not saying some of them are similar, I'm saying they're pretty much all really similar. Some of them are more accelerated over certain periods, that's really been the only key difference. That difference is due to external circumstances, which is what we're talking about changing! I don't quite get who you're referring to with that "uber gods" comment.
Im sure if i looked hard enough id find an argument that said that a particular society was like another group of societies in special ways that would have meant it doing remarkable well in a particular way (be militarily/economically whatever). The point is that because none of this actually happened you can argue it ad infinitum to your particular POV, ie you can take whatever elements you want from different sets and group them into whatever set you want.

Incidently this is illustrating the problem with the social sciences, they use the same tools everyone else does but because they can't embed themselves into a physical reality they drift

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So what are we going to do with all this land then?
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 11:13   #140
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Im sure if i looked hard enough id find an argument that said that a particular society was like another group of societies in special ways that would have meant it doing remarkable well in a particular way (be militarily/economically whatever). The point is that because none of this actually happened you can argue it ad infinitum to your particular POV, ie you can take whatever elements you want from different sets and group them into whatever set you want.
It's the same as any moral argument. You can argue ad infinitum by refusing to accept certain precepts because they're only inductively and not deductively demonstrated. However inductively speaking they're perfectly fine for use. Many people seem to have this problem with the social sciences that because the bottom line actually takes fifteen pages to write out they don't accept that it exists. It's a matter of scale for a lot of people, I can hand you a stack of books taller than you are telling you the holocaust never happened and because it's such an arduous process systematically proving the points which are incorrect to be incorrect, and those which are half-truths to be half-truths people just dismiss it altogether and say that in the social sciences you can say "anything" and get away with it.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 11:24   #141
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

what were talking about originally?
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 11:24   #142
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

In 50 years time, Britain will have more fried chicken shops.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 11:25   #143
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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what were talking about originally?
Presuming that actually says what were we talking about originally the answer is "predictions for the world in fifty years time".
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 11:26   #144
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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In 50 years time, Britain will have more fried chicken shops.
more black girls \o/
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 11:29   #145
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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In 50 years time, Britain will have more fried chicken shops.
Ireland will have an enormous number of chinese restaurants. Each chinese restaurant will have a 50/50 shot of being closed down when you attempt to eat there.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 13:38   #146
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

Most of this thread seems to have concerned itself with whether the distribution of the worlds wealth will have somehow equalised by 2056. This is, of course, an important consideration for the developing (read: impoverished) nations of the world but will be of lesser impact to those of us already living in wealthy nations.

In judging our likely future path I think it's important to assess the impact of forthcoming scientific breakthroughs alongside these economic concerns. For example many (extremely) respected doctors at the vanguard of anti-aging drug research believe that the first person to reach 150 is aged over 70 today. There are many treatments in early trials at the moment and even a few that are close to approval for clinical trials. Anyone here with access to Nature magazine or a subscription to Nature online (most universities have one that students can use) can see Vasan et al, Nature 382:275-278.

On a different tangent, a private consortium of EXTREMELY rich people is currently in the process of preparing to build the first space elevator. Once constructed this would provide an essentially free (counterweighted) method of lifting matter into space. The current barrier to this is that the materials needed to build it cannot currently be produced in the appropriate amounts. But they do already exist and it is only a matter of time before we overcome the Earth's gravity well permanently. It may be trite to say it, but this does open the door for true space exploration.

Then there are the many huge advances in computing and related fields that will occur. Proper virtual reality, holographics, nanotechnology etc. I could go on for many paragraphs about these but I'm sure I'll get more thanks for not doing so.

Food for thought I hope.
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Unread 20 Jun 2006, 14:34   #147
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

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Anyone here with access to Nature magazine or a subscription to Nature online (most universities have one that students can use) can see Vasan et al, Nature 382:275-278.
Sadly it appears that Athens doesn't grant access
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Unread 25 Jun 2006, 13:42   #148
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Re: The world in 50 years; Predictions?

http://sss.stanford.edu/coverage/audioandvideo/#

pretty interesting stuff. sorry to bring this back from the brink.
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