The Probability of War in Iraq?

[Ulysses]

Evidence.

When Britain last went to war, (in Afghanistan) there were weeks of (if not months) of endless ducumentaries films, and discussions about WWII.

Old war films were screened on most of the terestrial channels, the USA was hyped by the media as the Great friend of Freedom etc.

A similar episode took place leading up to the Gulf war, and to a lesser extent The Falklands.

This is an obvious ploy by the UK Government to try an evoke sympathy for a War against an evil/corrupt regime

I personally have some serious reservations about a war against Iraq, it is not to say I support Saddam Hussien, the man is obviously a corrupt and Hienous individual, his tyranny and actions against his own people verify that.

Yes a US/UK force would destroy him, but at what cost to the the civilian population and to our own troops.

You can be sure that if Saddam does have biological or even god forbid nuclear devices, he will use them in a last ditch attempt to defend his own position.

[Ulysses]

Originally posted by FFUUGGNNUUTTSS
World War Eleven, huh? Seems I've missed a few.

On a seperate note: DEPLOY THE MILITAIRY FARIES!!

WWII != World War Eleven

[Woof]

The UK and US have been engineered this war for months, it’s inevitable.
As far as I know, the UK government never made public its compelling evidence linking Iraq with September 11th.
And in the light of the recent Blair scandal, I wouldn’t take Tony Blair’s word on face value.
If there is just one error, typo, or admission in Iraq’s dossier of WMD that will be enough.

british media really seems a little strange sometimes. i mean i love the bbc-news-website, we dont have that good europe-coverage here (at least on no website i know about) but on the iraq-issue i saw interviews with people who said the exact opposite of what i read in interviews here.
i also saw no warnings about the catastrophe this whole war will end in and the lots of civil casulties (smart bombs or not, if you destroy the water- and electrcy supply lots of people will die, thats a fact)

[ParraCida]

100% change of war, they have been doing just pretty much everything to prepare for war except for actually say 'we are going to war'.

There will be war, with or without U.N. consent (though I am quite sure the countries that are not agreeing atm are being bought off with some kind of trade agreement) and nothing will change that.

After all, I don't see the US shipping 50,000 troops 'just incase'.

[skiddy]

British Regular Army = February
British Army Reserves = March
Territorial Army (if needed) = April

I know many people in the forces, and this timetable has been loosly confirmed by about ten of them.

[Smugs]

It will haappen.

[Deffeh]

It seems its inevitable.


I just wonder how far the us will go to justify the war

(planting evidence, etc)

[Vermillion]

Originally posted by Ulysses

This is an obvious ploy by the UK Government to try an evoke sympathy for a War against an evil/corrupt regime

I mean no offence to you here, but I really hate conspiracy theorists.

Rather than it being another "obvious ploy by the big brother government who controls the independant media to brainwash us" how about:

The media, which makes money by having people watch, responmds to trends in public interest. If there is a war scare on, they show war movies and documentaries. If there is a giant earthquake, they show documentaries and movies about natural disasters. If there is a celebrated archeological find in the news, they show "mysteries of Egypt" or whatever. If James Cameron releases a massive blockbuster about the Titanic, there are dozens of documentaries and shows about the Titanic, maritime disasters and superships for the next year.

Or did was that just "an obvious ploy by the government" to increase ticket sales for the movie?

[mpr0733]

The threat of war nor the chance of media making money out of the situation justifies all these crappy one sided documentaries broadcasted as of late. (Netherlands, can't comment on other nations.)

I'm hoping, no, begging that Saddam Hussein, ever playing cat& mouse games, has destroyed whatever weapons of mass destruction he might have had.
I'd laugh very hard ( and loud) if the arms inspectors return home empty handed.

[Akallabeth]

I'm taking bets atm that GWB will declare war on Iraq on my birthday, the 28th of Jan...

[G_frog]

Originally posted by ParraCida
After all, I don't see the US shipping 50,000 troops 'just incase'.

Although i agree there will be war, i have to dispute this. Of course you have to position troops in case of a need to prosecute a war urgently. British military chiefs made this their position some weeks ago, even tho the british military is not traditionally keen on being used for political ends. The pentagon's position will have been similar.

...

By a startling coincidence, akallabeth, that's my brother's birthday too.

[bobble]

Originally posted by ParraCida
100% change of war, they have been doing just pretty much everything to prepare for war except for actually say 'we are going to war'.

There will be war, with or without U.N. consent (though I am quite sure the countries that are not agreeing atm are being bought off with some kind of trade agreement) and nothing will change that.

After all, I don't see the US shipping 50,000 troops 'just incase'.

'military pressure'

Hmm...

The BBC will report what it likes. It will report on what people want to see. People want to know about the situation with Iraq. Therefore, the BBC will report on Iraq in doccumentaries, in the news and on radio programmes.

All the media follows the same line, but the difference between tabloid/broadsheet is the same as the difference between BBC and Channel 5.

But lets make a point clear. You dont speak to Tony Blair or George Bush or Saddam Heussain, and if you did, would they give away their plans?

Maybe War will happen, But all the media can do is guess, and report on whatever rears its ugly head. If tony blair suddenly shouted out "The clue to the situation is hidden in a 17 year old swedish girls diary", you can be sure that the media would not only comment on how crazy this statement is, but also about what is in any 17 year old swedish girls diary, and you can bet your life on it.

[Jammers]

Originally posted by Donkie

Maybe War will happen, But all the media can do is guess, and report on whatever rears its ugly head. If tony blair suddenly shouted out "The clue to the situation is hidden in a 17 year old swedish girls diary", you can be sure that the media would not only comment on how crazy this statement is, but also about what is in any 17 year old swedish girls diary, and you can bet your life on it.

And here was me thinking all Swedish diaries were for was defaming popular(ish) celebrities

[Terra Australis]

Originally posted by mpr0733
The threat of war nor the chance of media making money out of the situation justifies all these crappy one sided documentaries broadcasted as of late. (Netherlands, can't comment on other nations.)

I'm hoping, no, begging that Saddam Hussein, ever playing cat& mouse games, has destroyed whatever weapons of mass destruction he might have had.
I'd laugh very hard ( and loud) if the arms inspectors return home empty handed.

There will be something found eventually in Iraq, i hate to burst your bubble here.

Saddam has had years to hide his weapons, and the fact that the U.N not the U.S or Britain has said to Iraq show us something in your dossiers that you have destroyed your weapons of mass destruction.

You have to remember that how long has it been since the last lot of U.N inspectors have been allowed into Iraq, there has been plenty of time for the weapons to be hidden either in Iraq or a neighbouring country that is sympathetic with Iraq.

The fact that there is another carrier battle group moving to the gulf and also 50,000 troops as another poster said, shows that we have to be serious on this issue.

The fact that the U.S has also given the U.N sattelite intelligence on the situation in Iraq is also lends itself to the cause.
The U.S is not gunning for war but wants to see the threat of biological weapons removed, the fact that the U.N has also said the same thing, and the comment regarding the issue of the evidence being old presented to the U.N is a testament to this.

But we also have another issue on the hands and that is the issue of the North Korean situation, and the fact that they are starting there nuclear programme again, and also have removed the cameras monitoring the reactor, against the agreement that was brokered with the U.N

[Cochese]

Originally posted by Deffeh
It seems its inevitable.


I just wonder how far the us will go to justify the war

(planting evidence, etc)

I'm no Bush supporter, but the chances of evidence being "planted" is slim to none.

That's just plain crazy talk.

[ParraCida]

Originally posted by Cochese
I'm no Bush supporter, but the chances of evidence being "planted" is slim to none.

That's just plain crazy talk.

Agreed, there will be no planting of evidence.
Most likely there will be 'claiming' of evidence and a lack of 'presenting' the evidence that will lead to the invasion.

[Terra Australis]

Originally posted by ParraCida
Agreed, there will be no planting of evidence.
Most likely there will be 'claiming' of evidence and a lack of 'presenting' the evidence that will lead to the invasion.

The governments of nations do not reveal all that's going on in the world to there populace.

That is what will happen here, something will be found and it will be revealed after the evidence is put to the U.N and other powers that be, then just before the war will begin if it does, then it will be revealed to the populace of those countries that will be participating.

This will be done for security reasons, that is the way that i see this all happening.

[Cochese]

Originally posted by ParraCida
Agreed, there will be no planting of evidence.
Most likely there will be 'claiming' of evidence and a lack of 'presenting' the evidence that will lead to the invasion.

Now that I can see happening quite easily...we've already claimed to have "proof" about Iraq's arsenal (which was to be given, in some form, to the inspectors) but I haven't heard anything in the news about follow-ups on those claims.

[Terra Australis]

Originally posted by Cochese
Now that I can see happening quite easily...we've already claimed to have "proof" about Iraq's arsenal (which was to be given, in some form, to the inspectors) but I haven't heard anything in the news about follow-ups on those claims.

Of course you wont hear nothing of the claims as this is a government matter and will be treated as such.

The public have been fed there information, and the media will continue to report on what is going on, I.E the troop buildup and the continuing inspections, but as for the information regarding what will be actually found there in Iraq that will not be dealt out to the public until if war is going to occur, then the information will be shared.

Any leaked information could be used for espionage or other more sinister purposes.

Thus no one will hear nothing at all..... just continued troop buildups and also continued weapons inspections.

[Xillah]

[off topic]

Originally posted by FFUUGGNNUUTTSS
World War Eleven, huh?

heh

this reminded me of when my parents fought when i was a kid.

My dad would shout "You'd start world war bloody 11!" brought a little smile to my face
[/off topic]

There isnt really a decision of whether the USA and iraq will go to war, its more of a 'when' decision.

[Terra Australis]

Originally posted by RIT
There isnt really a decision of whether the USA and iraq will go to war, its more of a 'when' decision.

People have to remember this is not just a U.S vs Iraq issue here, even though the U.S will be providing the bulk of the forces for the eventual war if it comes.

The U.N have found issues with the dossier that Iraq handed to the U.N for viewing, so this has become a U.N issue, and the U.S and its allies are awaiting the verdict of the U.N before considering any military action.

All the U.S is doing at the moment is putting psychological pressure on Iraq by boosting the forces in the region, and also preparing if they are needed for a war against Iraq.

Thus time will tell what will happen, but there is more at stake here than just U.S and Iraq, regional security and a whole host of other issues come into play here.

You also have to remember the size of Iraq. Its a bloody big country.. well.. pile of dust.

And they're looking for something the size of a washing machine. And its been hidden. It could be buried. It could be in someones house. It could be up a tree [if they have any], or behind a rock[they got lots of them].. but the point is, that they're looking for something incredibly small in a pretty big country, and saddam [if he has it] has sent his men to purpously hide it.

He's not just gonna leave it in the middle of a power-station now is he? And he'll probably be moving it around, so to move where they have been. Infact, it could be hiden in the boot of someones car and they're driving it around.


It could be anywhere in Iraq.

[Terra Australis]

It is not just the chemicals that they are looking for but also the means to deliver them, I.E long range vehicles like scuds etc, that were banned as a result of losing the gulf war.

But the chemicals are not exactly held in small containers etc, such as the washing machine sized units that you stated.

Small quantities maybe, but a country such as Iraq that had an active chemical weapons program would have a fairly large concentration of chemicals together..... or biological agents together.

I would hardly think that there are just cars driving around together with chemicals and bio weapons in there boots.
If they were dispersed they would be taken to secure regions or hidden places in vehicles disguised as civilian tankers or something like that, or the army would use its vehicles to carry the stuff around.

If Iraq has got them no doubt they will be found in the end, after all you cant hide stuff from satelites and spy planes forever.

Either way they will be found if the U.N rules the data that Iraq gave to be null and void, and then the U.S and its allies invade.

Or the weapons inspectors find something.

[Costa]

100%

(Dec 2k2 threads are okay rite Mark)

[MrL_JaKiri]

Hahaha.

No.