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Unread 2 Jul 2012, 11:32   #151
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Benneh View Post
I dont know about you, but Max just made sense on AD.

I'm preparing for the apocalypse.
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Unread 2 Jul 2012, 13:50   #152
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

People always seem to have no clue how score gain works in PA (in terms of can 1 alliance catch another etc). So here's an example for you!

Let's say Ultores and CT block together against Haven. Presumably they bring at least 1 other alliance along for the ride. You'd expect roid losses on Haven of something like 10% the first night, 8, 7, 6, 5 the following 4 nights. That means after 5 days they have 62k roids. CT will probably gain somewhere in the region of 4, 3, 2, 2, 2. This would put them on 106k roids after 5 days. Ultores you'd expect to gain the most for reasons that should be fairly obvious (they have lots of unfat planets. Therefore in the absence of targetting incoming they will likely get very low levels of random inc. The reverse applies for CT and Haven).

Ultores would probably gain something in the region 9, 8, 6, 6, 5. Putting them on 81k roids. As should now be fairly evident it is eminently possible in 5 days for an alliance to overturn a roid deficit equal to 50% of your current roids in 5 days and turn it into a 30% advantage. Meaning you are now gaining 30% more score than they are in terms of your res. It would be likely that Ultores, relatively low values but presumably the best alliance at target picking and fleet utilisation, would gain high amounts of XP from their landings.

Ultores over the last week or so appear to be gaining something like 4.5% on average per day in score. You'd expect this to jump to something closer to 6.5% (a third of this increase would be made up by the extra roids capped alone) and Haven's to drop down to 1.5-2% (dependent on crashing etc which will vary depending on how good they actually are). After 5 days Ultores are on 197 mil and Haven are on 199 mil. CT you'd expect to be on something like 4% growth and therefore 219 mil. So in 5 days Ultores go from having a third fewer roids than Haven and 22% less score to having 30% more roids and 1% less score. Equally they now have 25% less roids than CT and 10% less score as opposed to 30% less roids and 21% less score.

I'm getting a bit bored now but the basic point is this. If there are more than 10 days left to go in the round and someone changes sides Ultores will have enough time to win. This assumes a "conventional" type of backstab with whoever gets stabbed initially joining up with Ultores after 5 or 6 days.

Also absolute numbers are really irrelevant. You should always look at percentages. A 16 mil score gap with 3 days to go in the round is very different to a 16 mil score gap halfway through the round etc.
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Unread 2 Jul 2012, 14:49   #153
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
Still they keep defending themself pretty well, and last round they had also given up iirc
compared to who ?? or when? (if its compared to ult themself)
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Unread 2 Jul 2012, 18:41   #154
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by JonnyBGood View Post
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At last, someone on here who understands how it works and doesn't fall for Ult propoganda
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Unread 2 Jul 2012, 20:44   #155
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
FAnG were the greater allie in mye view of the two last round, and HaveN so far this round has proved to be better, whats ur point?
Yet both alliances blocked against Ultores early round.
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Unread 2 Jul 2012, 21:34   #156
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

the odds of Ult folding are low unless there are fleetcatches
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Unread 2 Jul 2012, 22:16   #157
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

sad to say, but even JBG is a bit overimpressed by Ultores past on this one.. Forest and others are just delusional

but u do whaat u need to :=)
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 07:08   #158
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

JBG's post assumes a lot.
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 10:51   #159
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood View Post
People always seem to have no clue how score gain works in PA (in terms of can 1 alliance catch another etc). So here's an example for you!

Let's say Ultores and CT block together against Haven. Presumably they bring at least 1 other alliance along for the ride. You'd expect roid losses on Haven of something like 10% the first night, 8, 7, 6, 5 the following 4 nights. That means after 5 days they have 62k roids. CT will probably gain somewhere in the region of 4, 3, 2, 2, 2. This would put them on 106k roids after 5 days. Ultores you'd expect to gain the most for reasons that should be fairly obvious (they have lots of unfat planets. Therefore in the absence of targetting incoming they will likely get very low levels of random inc. The reverse applies for CT and Haven).

Ultores would probably gain something in the region 9, 8, 6, 6, 5. Putting them on 81k roids. As should now be fairly evident it is eminently possible in 5 days for an alliance to overturn a roid deficit equal to 50% of your current roids in 5 days and turn it into a 30% advantage. Meaning you are now gaining 30% more score than they are in terms of your res. It would be likely that Ultores, relatively low values but presumably the best alliance at target picking and fleet utilisation, would gain high amounts of XP from their landings.

Ultores over the last week or so appear to be gaining something like 4.5% on average per day in score. You'd expect this to jump to something closer to 6.5% (a third of this increase would be made up by the extra roids capped alone) and Haven's to drop down to 1.5-2% (dependent on crashing etc which will vary depending on how good they actually are). After 5 days Ultores are on 197 mil and Haven are on 199 mil. CT you'd expect to be on something like 4% growth and therefore 219 mil. So in 5 days Ultores go from having a third fewer roids than Haven and 22% less score to having 30% more roids and 1% less score. Equally they now have 25% less roids than CT and 10% less score as opposed to 30% less roids and 21% less score.

I'm getting a bit bored now but the basic point is this. If there are more than 10 days left to go in the round and someone changes sides Ultores will have enough time to win. This assumes a "conventional" type of backstab with whoever gets stabbed initially joining up with Ultores after 5 or 6 days.

Also absolute numbers are really irrelevant. You should always look at percentages. A 16 mil score gap with 3 days to go in the round is very different to a 16 mil score gap halfway through the round etc.
I guess the main issue with JBG's post is that it assumes at least a level (ish) playing field in terms of value when whatever imagined backstab happens. In the case of this round, Ultores is pretty value light due to a massively lower tick-roids count compared with CT/Haven so targetting with CT/Haven vs the other, depending on the ability in defence of course, SHOULN'T produce the sort of losses that JBG's example suggests and even if they did, Ultores wouldn't be the ones reaping the benefits because they don't have the value to produce the lands required, the most they could hope for was a few XP lands.

Even if by some miracle Ultores did manage to make the numbers suggested, 30% score gain would start on the 5th day in the example given, not on the first day, as obviously you need to cap the roids before they start returning any value and would need to be left alone for several days following to really make any roid gain count.

I'm pretty sure and somewhat hope, any idiot reading these forums and playing (or following) this round, can see that there's no way in hell Ultores would be within 1% score of Haven after 5 days of whatever targetting may or may not happen in the remainder of this round. Ultores need a miracle to win this round from this position, regardless of whatever poorly thought out justification anyone is using to maintain the status quo.
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 12:05   #160
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

I think you should read his post again.
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 13:06   #161
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by VenoX View Post
I'm pretty sure and somewhat hope, any idiot reading these forums and playing (or following) this round, can see that there's no way in hell Ultores would be within 1% score of Haven after 5 days of whatever targetting may or may not happen in the remainder of this round. Ultores need a miracle to win this round from this position, regardless of whatever poorly thought out justification anyone is using to maintain the status quo.
Eksero used the word miracle in respects to what ultores would need in order to achieve a victory last round too. Maybe next time throw a few synonyms in there so it doesn't immediately bring to mind how often you've managed to achieve such "miracles" in the past.
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 13:22   #162
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Forest View Post
Congrats Ult, just when you thought all was lost
(Immedietely after FaNG declared war on CT)

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Originally Posted by eksero View Post
Indeed, we will now execute our masterplan and catch up 30m in 2 weeks!
Immediate reply
Quote:
Originally Posted by Forest View Post
CT will be third by the end of today, after all we are being hit by three main alliances.

That said, no we wont whine, we will leave that to the others, take note of what is happening and karma will kick in I am sure.

I for one will be laughing when Ult+co start hitting fang, seeing as fang have 5k+ roids, will be +15k by end of day and were always going to win.

As I pointed out last night to ult and co, fang would have won this round by carrying on (ct were hitting ult and fang were getting fat on smaller alliances).

But by declaring war on CT, FaNG have unlocked the door and left it wide open for Ult to claim another win.

CT will fall very quickly, fang will become next target and ult are likely crying in the corner, laughing at this epicfai

Ult are now favourites to win the round
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Key point here, ult in third place join a block, whereas CT fang ND and random other shit had their block and ult when they were 1st, 2nd, 3rd/4th. so its definitely nowhere near the same situation. Specially considering Ult has never had a value lead this round due to early incs.
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 13:23   #163
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

De ja vu

Don't think people will make the same mistake this time...
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 13:54   #164
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by VenoX View Post
I guess the main issue with JBG's post is that it assumes at least a level (ish) playing field in terms of value when whatever imagined backstab happens. In the case of this round, Ultores is pretty value light due to a massively lower tick-roids count compared with CT/Haven so targetting with CT/Haven vs the other, depending on the ability in defence of course, SHOULN'T produce the sort of losses that JBG's example suggests and even if they did, Ultores wouldn't be the ones reaping the benefits because they don't have the value to produce the lands required, the most they could hope for was a few XP lands.

Even if by some miracle Ultores did manage to make the numbers suggested, 30% score gain would start on the 5th day in the example given, not on the first day, as obviously you need to cap the roids before they start returning any value and would need to be left alone for several days following to really make any roid gain count.

I'm pretty sure and somewhat hope, any idiot reading these forums and playing (or following) this round, can see that there's no way in hell Ultores would be within 1% score of Haven after 5 days of whatever targetting may or may not happen in the remainder of this round. Ultores need a miracle to win this round from this position, regardless of whatever poorly thought out justification anyone is using to maintain the status quo.
Obviously my original numbers can be wrong. The cumulative score-gain bit was bit more my point though.

Realistically with respect to CT I don't think my numbers would be proven wrong. CT are, presumably, roughly the same quality as they've always been. Historically I've seen CT, and other similar alliances, lose from this position plenty of times. They'll crash fleets, defend poorly in general due to lack of experience in these circumstances and so on. Haven might be better, I really don't have a clue. Given that they're only just ahead of CT though and both have had similar favourable circumstances all round I'm assuming that they're not though.

And I'd point out that while you're right that you won't immediately start gaining more resources, and ignoring the point about crashes etc a large part of the score change will just be asteroids changing hands. 20k roids on its own is 5 mil score. With what I predict Ultores caps in the first 3 days (how long I predict it'd take haven to lose 20k roids) you'd gain 14k, or 3.5 mil score in roids. Add in the xp based on what munin (dunno if that's right) tells me average score/value is and the average score gain for this amount of roids is 3.8 mil. That's 12.3 mil score gained on just the capping of roids in 3 days ignoring any potential for fleet losses by Haven. You subtract res mined by Haven, call that 400 res per tick (60% bonus) on each roid extra over those 3 days works out to approx 6 mil. So you'd gain approximately 6 mil score in 3 days on the figures (and I'd stand by those to be honest) ignoring the potential for any fleet loss by Haven. Realistically I'd put a figure of 10 mil over those 3 days. After that time you'd have the same number of roids, 72k. So even to get to the position whereby you're mining the same you'd gain a good chunk of score back.

A lot of this stuff is very contingent on a load of variables but as I said my point is really just that people consistently over-estimate how hard it is for a good alliance to catch up to a bad one.
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 14:11   #165
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by oil
Eksero used the word miracle in respects to what ultores would need in order to achieve a victory last round too. Maybe next time throw a few synonyms in there so it doesn't immediately bring to mind how often you've managed to achieve such "miracles" in the past.
I guess I just expect too much from people playing this game, i.e not having half your alliance crash their fleets in the first two days of getting hit
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 18:11   #166
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by eksero View Post
I guess I just expect too much from people playing this game, i.e not having half your alliance crash their fleets in the first two days of getting hit
Can you imagine if you playing in NewDawn or CT??? you would have a stress based heart attack within a week!!
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 18:34   #167
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

The actual intresting thing between now and the end of the round is do HaveN think they are good enough to keep CT at bay??

From what we hear CT have mountains of resources stacked... they are gaining at roughly the same rate (roids wise) yet seem to be gaining more score daily (maybe because Ultores have been beaten enough and are allowing them to land).


Suppose this now comes down to wether HaveN have the nuts to hang on to 1st or wether they will have to hit CT at some point to make sure they stay infront... i wouldnt want to have to make that decision... or MAYBE CT (perenial backstabbers) will sniff glory and strike first!!!


EEEK ITS TOO EXCITING!!!!
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 18:35   #168
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

well as neroon said, this rounds goal for the "top" allies has been simply to stop ult winning and achieving that is the only accomplishment of the round for them. whoever wins it doesn't matter as they have cearly in no way worked for it nor deserved it, i would love to kingmake babylons, probably the only ally id b happy to see win (other than ult), just a shame their numbers are too small for that idea to be properly feasible.
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 19:40   #169
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Knight View Post
whoever wins it doesn't matter as they have cearly in no way worked for it nor deserved it.
Any alliance that ends up first, playing within the limits of the game, deserves the win.

If they didn't have to 'work for it', either the competition is bad or the game is flawed.
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 19:52   #170
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

well.. u know the answer but still post like that !

ofc the competition is bad :P and also the game is flawed as we all know
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Unread 3 Jul 2012, 22:12   #171
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knight View Post
well as neroon said, this rounds goal for the "top" allies has been simply to stop ult winning and achieving that is the only accomplishment of the round for them. whoever wins it doesn't matter as they have cearly in no way worked for it nor deserved it, i would love to kingmake babylons, probably the only ally id b happy to see win (other than ult), just a shame their numbers are too small for that idea to be properly feasible.
Atm babylons might not need anyone to kingmake em, they can be kings by their own maybe
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Unread 4 Jul 2012, 00:13   #172
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Except, you know... not.
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The outraged poets threw sticks and rocks over the side of the bridge. They were all missing Mary and he felt a contented smug feeling wash over him. He would have given them a coy little wave if the roof hadn't collapsed just then. Mary then found himself in the middle of an understandably shocked family's kitchen table. So he gave them the coy little wave and realized it probably would have been more effective if he hadn't been lying on their turkey.
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Unread 4 Jul 2012, 15:26   #173
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Who ever predicted that B-butcher would crash has predicted right
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Unread 4 Jul 2012, 16:16   #174
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

It was my fault, I was due to calc but had to take my 3 week old daughter to hospital so we landed it.

Some things are more important that pa.

Nice troll though
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Unread 4 Jul 2012, 17:00   #175
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

hope she is allright again Forest!
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Unread 4 Jul 2012, 17:20   #176
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

yeah she is fine ty
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Unread 4 Jul 2012, 18:33   #177
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Would've made for an awesome story though. "Yes, honey, the reason you walk with a limp is because daddy plays this game called Planetarion..."
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The outraged poets threw sticks and rocks over the side of the bridge. They were all missing Mary and he felt a contented smug feeling wash over him. He would have given them a coy little wave if the roof hadn't collapsed just then. Mary then found himself in the middle of an understandably shocked family's kitchen table. So he gave them the coy little wave and realized it probably would have been more effective if he hadn't been lying on their turkey.
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Unread 4 Jul 2012, 19:41   #178
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

lmao if I put pa before the baby, the missus would make sure I was the one with the limp
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Unread 5 Jul 2012, 03:16   #179
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Who ever predicted that B-butcher would crash has predicted right
I didnt even notice, the round still going?
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Unread 5 Jul 2012, 05:37   #180
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Yeah, I just piggied forest! Thought he would cap all the roids but luckily he's as bad as me at PA so has to recall !
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Unread 5 Jul 2012, 05:46   #181
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

baby brain!!!
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Unread 5 Jul 2012, 15:42   #182
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

I blame myself tbh, but at least it was only crappy cruiser..
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Unread 5 Jul 2012, 21:36   #183
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

j0

what is going in PA universe?

haven in last nights went after dwtfk and HR it seems. good for haven, bad for dwtfkfk and hr. bad for ult and ct aswell.

xvx is a big question, have been allied with ULT for rounds but 1 guy who used to run xvx is now haven hc. every1 saying they are on the fence. who knows?

ult has nice roidgrowth today.
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 01:01   #184
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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j0

what is going in PA universe?

haven in last nights went after dwtfk and HR it seems. good for haven, bad for dwtfkfk and hr. bad for ult and ct aswell.

xvx is a big question, have been allied with ULT for rounds but 1 guy who used to run xvx is now haven hc. every1 saying they are on the fence. who knows?

ult has nice roidgrowth today.
If xVx and HvN allied each other i think it mustve been a smart move by both parties
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 10:41   #185
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxMilliaN View Post
j0

what is going in PA universe?

haven in last nights went after dwtfk and HR it seems. good for haven, bad for dwtfkfk and hr. bad for ult and ct aswell.

xvx is a big question, have been allied with ULT for rounds but 1 guy who used to run xvx is now haven hc. every1 saying they are on the fence. who knows?

ult has nice roidgrowth today.
Not even remotely true btw. If you had paid attention ingame, you could probably had seen this msg:
Relation Change 762 DFWTK and HaveN have confirmed they are allied.
So that should rule out atleast 3 days HaveN, could even had been on dfwtk ally display.
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 11:41   #186
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

ultores just initiated so that the gangbang could carry on for the final 2 weeks :P
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 13:28   #187
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Ultores would appear to have 'caned' it last night and grew over 8%..

who said they weren't dangerous anymore?
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 13:38   #188
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

its amazing the % number going from 300 to 500 roids.
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 14:06   #189
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Baggy:

<insert more effort>
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 16:42   #190
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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its amazing the % number going from 300 to 500 roids.
Except your average is over a thousand but ok.
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 18:15   #191
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Baggy:

<insert more effort>
I had to go and look on another website for that piece of info which meant I had two tabs open at the same time.. WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 19:30   #192
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Quote:
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Ultores would appear to have 'caned' it last night and grew over 8%..

who said they weren't dangerous anymore?
Not particularly hard when having so few roids as we did/do
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 19:43   #193
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Not particularly hard when having so few roids as we did/do
you caught 7k roids approx which would work out as about 7% growth if ct caught the same at this point. so yeah, still pretty good and still quite an achievement.
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 19:46   #194
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by baggy
you caught 7k roids approx which would work out as about 7% growth if ct caught the same at this point. so yeah, still pretty good and still quite an achievement.

Sure, but it's also only 2k more than what ct got today. And I know alot of people were initiating since we didn't have any incs last night
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Unread 6 Jul 2012, 22:35   #195
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

I'm not saying you're big or small, fath or thin, ugly or uglier, working with the whole universe or spamming alone.. just that given some time alone the ult machine doesn't stop grinding away even when in a much more difficult position
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Unread 7 Jul 2012, 00:09   #196
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

So it's gonna be either a CT win or a rats win? Both of them will be deserved winners
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Unread 7 Jul 2012, 04:10   #197
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

How'd you work that one out..
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Unread 7 Jul 2012, 04:31   #198
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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So it's gonna be either a CT win or a rats win? Both of them will be deserved winners
Really?
Weren't you in a public chan earlier mouthing off as to how ults will win and ct are rubbish?
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Unread 7 Jul 2012, 04:33   #199
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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How'd you work that one out..
I think it is his way of saying app will hit haven?
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Unread 7 Jul 2012, 07:12   #200
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Really?
Weren't you in a public chan earlier mouthing off as to how ults will win and ct are rubbish?
<scott> rats will finish #1 fosho
<scott> All the effort hvn and ct put in for nothing

Was what I said! I never said CT are rubbish! By this I meant CT and HvN put a lot of effort in all round hitting rats, then HvN stopped hitting them! Now CT have stopped hitting them! Rats have gained ~15k roids in 2 days!

If HvN win, they deserve it as well! I just think that CT will be more deserving because they carried on hitting rats after HvN stopped!
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