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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 00:21   #1
Nadval
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Am I missing something here!?

Claire Short is 'campaiging for a hung parliament' and has thus been threatened with expulsion.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5346948.stm

What i don't quite get is how she's hoping to achieve her objective, or what the benefits would be should she manage to - it seems like a totally redundant campaign. If I understand it correctly, she wants Labour to win a third of the seats, whilst Conservatives win a third (presumably she was just being "realistic" here) and the other third goes to 'Greens and others'. So:
1. How the hell is she going to get 'Greens and other parties' to win the extra seats and not Conservatives or Lib Dems - if it were that simple then they would surely be doing something themselves.
2. Once she's somehow increased the appeal of the 'Greens and others', and proportionally lowered the appeal of Labour and Conservatives, she then has to somehow devise a system whereby the people, who have changed their minds in light of her 'campaign', live in the right constituencies, so as to ensure that the right number of seats are turned over by the three parties, or parties and groups of parties (she hasn't been specific about the 'green and others' third, so presumably BNP, Lib Dems and Irish MPs alike would be encompassed within this).
3. So to put those points together, she has to tell the electorate that they aren't voting for a party or a manifesto but, depending on what the electoral situation is in their constituency, and what party she has decided their MP ought to belong to, they are going to vote along the lines that if they do what she tells them to do they'll get a coalition government with all British political opinions included - "That'll be great, won't it kids!?".

And on top of the fact she's saying Labour ought to lose a substantial portion of their seats, she's also saying that the chances of her standing as an independent in the next election is "improbable, but who knows". Now, assuming that she's not going to join another political party, and still intends to stand as an MP, i don't see there being many options. She wants to campaign against her party, and yet use it's manifesto to win her seat for her?

Aside from all the flaws in how she might achieve her objective, what the hell would be the benefits of such an outcome anyway? More governmental inertia, even more tories in government, the left wing backbenchers are even more diluted, fragmented and easier to ignore. I'm just completely baffled at what she's hoping to achieve. If her reasons are what she says they are, then campaigning for a PR electoral system and joining/creating another political party seems a much less problematic route to me. Other than that, it's just another lame attempt to make a stab at the government, exposing her resentment towards the fact that Blair made her look like a complete fool over the Iraq invasion.

[/rant]
Anyone actualy sympathise with her? To clarify, I'm not actualy opposed to coalition governments in principle, I just don't see how it would be useful to Claire Short considering the current circumstances.
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 00:30   #2
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Claire Short should be hung.
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 00:38   #3
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Pretty much everything the government does makes the country even worse, so total deadlock is probably the best that we can realistically hope for.
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 07:35   #4
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Ms Short has a book to promote
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 10:36   #5
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Anyone actualy sympathise with her?
Claire Short is not just an idiot but an opportunistic Labourite scumbag. But yeah I have some sympathy for her position here (although as Yahwe notes, her actual motivation may not be pure as the driven snow).

I think you're missing the point if you try to work out exactly how each party (or faction) would win a mathematically equal share of the vote - that's not going to happen. It's about encouraging tactical voting so you have some plurality of power. Since tactical voting already happens in a lot of marginal seats anyway I fail to see how this is such an incredible idea. It's quite possible that without any specific campaign the Labour Party could lose enough seats to the Tories that they couldn't govern without the help of the Lib Dems (+"others") anyway.

Quote:
To clarify, I'm not actualy opposed to coalition governments in principle, I just don't see how it would be useful to Claire Short considering the current circumstances.
It depends what you want, really. If your top goal in life is to make sure we have no "Tories in government" then sure, this sort of strategy is probably misguided. However, we have not had official Tories in government for close to twenty years and we still have many (proposed) policies / government actions that many are not happy with (ID cards, the war on Iraq, legislative + regulatory reform bill and so on). Policies like that have not developed because there are "too many Tories" or too few Labour MPs but (maybe) because one party is effectively so strong.

Overall I think a hung parliament (in particular where the Lib Dems or other small parties held the balance) would be a useful step towards proportional representaton* which in turn would probably mean no single party ever holding a parliamentary majority again. For those of opposed to "strong governments" (in most cases) that is probably a good thing...

* = And probably the easiest, quickest way to that - although it's still unlikely.

Last edited by Dante Hicks; 15 Sep 2006 at 10:46.
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 17:13   #6
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by All Systems Go
Claire Short should be hung.

Hanged, not hung.
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 17:21   #7
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitc
Hanged, not hung.
a pedant ay? you'll fit right in!
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 17:25   #8
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
a pedant ay? you'll fit right in!

Only when it comes to the 'Hung', 'Hanged' thingy do-da whatsit.

And people calling Pluto a planet.
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 17:33   #9
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

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Originally Posted by Mitc
.

And people calling Pluto a planet.
everyone knows pluto is a disney character not a planet
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 17:35   #10
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

We should play forum hangman one day.
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 17:41   #11
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitc
Hanged, not hung.
I think he thinks Short is a hermaphrodite.
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 18:02   #12
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
I think he thinks Short is a hermaphrodite.
Eh?
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 18:16   #13
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitc
Eh?
failed
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Unread 15 Sep 2006, 22:57   #14
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitc
Hanged, not hung.
that's your opinion.

My opinion is that she ought to be hung. (but then i'm anti death penalty)
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Unread 16 Sep 2006, 16:29   #15
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Claire Short is not just an idiot but an opportunistic Labourite scumbag. But yeah I have some sympathy for her position here (although as Yahwe notes, her actual motivation may not be pure as the driven snow).

I think you're missing the point if you try to work out exactly how each party (or faction) would win a mathematically equal share of the vote - that's not going to happen. It's about encouraging tactical voting so you have some plurality of power. Since tactical voting already happens in a lot of marginal seats anyway I fail to see how this is such an incredible idea. It's quite possible that without any specific campaign the Labour Party could lose enough seats to the Tories that they couldn't govern without the help of the Lib Dems (+"others") anyway.
Encourage tactical voting? It seems short sighted (no pun intended) to think you could campaign for a hung parliament and end up with a better government than the one we have. Let us be entirely honest - do we really think that campaigning for a hung parliament will stop EITHER tories OR Labour getting in? At the last election I think there were 14,000 votes that could have swung it to a tory majority (or simply to diminish Labour's majority, I forget), obviously with the deciding votes coming from marginal constituencies. Now the effect of campaigning has two possible effects: people agree with you, and change their mind if need be, or they don't. If one campaigns against Labour then people will either vote against Labour, or they won't. There isn't an in between "I want a hung parliament so I'll slightly vote against Labour" option, so to say "I'm campaigning for a hung parliament" means "I'm campaigning against Labour but I hope I'm not too successful". To summarise: any campaign that holds any ground whatsoever would be likely to be too successfull, or a failure, but would be extremely unlikely to achieve the desired results. If Claire Short is at all able to convince people that Labour aren't fit to govern alone, we will most certainly end up with an even worse Tory government on our hands

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
It depends what you want, really. If your top goal in life is to make sure we have no "Tories in government" then sure, this sort of strategy is probably misguided. However, we have not had official Tories in government for close to twenty years and we still have many (proposed) policies / government actions that many are not happy with (ID cards, the war on Iraq, legislative + regulatory reform bill and so on). Policies like that have not developed because there are "too many Tories" or too few Labour MPs but (maybe) because one party is effectively so strong.

Overall I think a hung parliament (in particular where the Lib Dems or other small parties held the balance) would be a useful step towards proportional representaton* which in turn would probably mean no single party ever holding a parliamentary majority again. For those of opposed to "strong governments" (in most cases) that is probably a good thing...

* = And probably the easiest, quickest way to that - although it's still unlikely.
It was 10 years since the last Tory government, and it is the Tory party on which New Labour is, to some extent, modelled. The level of continuity between Major's government and Blair's is enough to realise this, and need it be mentioned that the Tories backed many of Blair's unpopular policies such as the war in iraq. What is there to say that the Lib Dems (+others) and Labour are more likely to form a government than Tories and Labour? Ideologically the tories and the labour party are the closest two parties in British politics, fighting much of the same ground. There's nothing to say we'll end up with a weaker government, or one which parliament finds easier to hold into account. Of course I understand the deep traditional divisions between the two parties, but it's highly possible that Lab+LibDem+Others would suffer from too much inertia and in-fighting, whilst Lab+Con would be overwhelmingly strong. Imagine the current government except with David Cameron and a couple of others in it ensuring that the Conservative vote can be relied on every time, and Labour rebels would be marginalised even more than they currently are. Lab+Libs have functioned well in the Scottish parliament, but Scottish politics is of a completely different tempo and Scottish Labour, for obvious electoral reasons, are less in touch with the Tories than New Labour.
Coalition governments would only help the cause of gaining a PR system if they were successful. Again, there's nothing here to suggest that, with this generation's first majorly hung parliament, the country wouldn't be convinced that coalition governments simply cannot work in a country like Britain. Again I'd have to ask why Short didn't simply decide to campaign directly for PR and for a new and unified centre-left party, instead of what would undoubtedly become another Conservative government.
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Unread 16 Sep 2006, 16:59   #16
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadval
It was 10 years since the last Tory government, and it is the Tory party on which New Labour is, to some extent, modelled. The level of continuity between Major's government and Blair's is enough to realise this,
dante's point was presumably shown by his use of the phrase 'official tory government'. he's unlikely to be unaware of the dates or to have made a schoolboy error by doubling the number 10.

Still I have no idea what he means and he ecquates unpopular policies with tories for some reason.

It is curious that he forgets that ID cards were removed by a conservative government and not by the labour government.
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Unread 18 Sep 2006, 14:44   #17
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
It is curious that he forgets that ID cards were removed by a conservative government and not by the labour government.
Huh?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Me
we still have many (proposed) policies / government actions that many are not happy with (ID cards, the war on Iraq, legislative + regulatory reform bill and so on). Policies like that have not developed because there are "too many Tories" or too few Labour MPs
And yes, I mean 10 years of course.
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Unread 18 Sep 2006, 14:59   #18
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

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Originally Posted by Nadval
Encourage tactical voting? It seems short sighted (no pun intended) to think you could campaign for a hung parliament and end up with a better government than the one we have.
Why?
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Now the effect of campaigning has two possible effects: people agree with you, and change their mind if need be, or they don't.
Or they vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats if they're likely to win in your area over Labour. It's not overly complex. Let's say your constituency MP is Labour. He has a smallish majority over a Liberal Democrat second placer, the Tories a distant third. You are a Labour supporter, but worried about their arrogance in power. You therefore choose to vote Liberal Democrat in the hope of reducing the Labour majority. Ta-da!

Anyway, I think you're are perhaps over-estimating the extent Claire Short is "campaigning" for anything. It seems much more an idle "I think it would be cool if..." type statement, rather than a call to man the barricades.
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What is there to say that the Lib Dems (+others) and Labour are more likely to form a government than Tories and Labour?
History, rivalry, the parties core supporters, etc. In general the two main parties are unlikely to unite against a third smaller party as both side want to be the dominant partner in any coalition (not an equal party). Menzies is more likely to agree to be Brown's deputy than Cameron, for example. I suspect if we look internationally we'd probably find more examples of one large & one small party vs one large than two large vs one small.
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Again I'd have to ask why Short didn't simply decide to campaign directly for PR and for a new and unified centre-left party, instead of what would undoubtedly become another Conservative government.
Undoubtedly is way too strong a term - there's no way you can be that sure. And a direct campaign for proportional representation would be unlikely to gain the high profile this sort of thing would.
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Unread 18 Sep 2006, 19:47   #19
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Huh?
perhaps unsurprisingly I meant what I said.

ID cards were introduced by a coalition government. Labour won the next election and kept ID cards for the duration of their term and did not have their removal as as a manifesto pledge. Labour lost and ID cards were removed by a conservative government.
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Unread 19 Sep 2006, 12:59   #20
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

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Originally Posted by Nodrog
Pretty much everything the government does makes the country even worse, so total deadlock is probably the best that we can realistically hope for.
That doesnt work for the Italians - in fact, it seems to make their problems worse.


Tbh, so long as you poms insist on having a "First Past the Post" system of voting, then a two party result in parliament will be reinforced. If you want to have three way ties and horrible coalition type things, then try proportional representation.

"Its Science."

Edit: that woman sounds like a nutcase, btw :\
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Unread 19 Sep 2006, 13:45   #21
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
ID cards were introduced by a coalition government. Labour won the next election and kept ID cards for the duration of their term and did not have their removal as as a manifesto pledge. Labour lost and ID cards were removed by a conservative government.
Yes...and where did I "forget" that?

My point was that things like ID cards do NOT come about because we have a Tory government (in fact, quite the opposite). Nadval's point seems geared towards saying that getting a Tory government will always be worse than any type of Labour governmetn. I am giving instances of policies where that doesn't appear to be the case.
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Unread 19 Sep 2006, 13:59   #22
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

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Originally Posted by Ultimate Newbie
That doesnt work for the Italians - in fact, it seems to make their problems worse.
I hear this a lot, but is it true?

Their economy seems to be in a bit of a general malaise, but that could be said for much of Western Europe who haven't had such a high rate of elections. Their unemployment rates are roughly equal to Germany and France (slightly below, according to the International Labour Organisation) and even where there has been shifts over the last ten years or so, they've been favourable in Italy compared to Germany & France (or Spain). Similarly their UN HDI is above Germany and New Zealand and only just below the UK's or France.

I don't know anything about Italy but is it really a terrible place?

(genuine question btw)
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Unread 19 Sep 2006, 14:36   #23
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Re: Am I missing something here!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Their economy seems to be in a bit of a general malaise, but that could be said for much of Western Europe who haven't had such a high rate of elections. Their unemployment rates are roughly equal to Germany and France (slightly below, according to the International Labour Organisation) and even where there has been shifts over the last ten years or so, they've been favourable in Italy compared to Germany & France (or Spain). Similarly their UN HDI is above Germany and New Zealand and only just below the UK's or France.

I don't know anything about Italy but is it really a terrible place?

(genuine question btw)
Indeed, the statistics doesnt seem to be as bad as i imagined - though Germany is still going through the whole Reunification thing, and France has her own domestic problems of another sort - riots etc. Having said that, whilst much of the rest of the developed world is experiencing a "global recovery", Germany's GDP growth is apparently at 2% and France's at 0.9%, whereas italy is "The sick man of europe" at 0%. Stagnant growth isnt really a great outcome when everyone else is improving. And still having positive inflation means that there is actually a decline in the economy in "real" terms. Which is bad news.

Mind you, all of Europe looks pretty hopeless compared to Australia's growth rates of 3.7% and 4.9% unemployment (and in my State, its more like 5.6% growth and 3.4% UE or something silly like that) - and Australia has had "political stability"; for over 10 years the Liberals have been in government at the Commonwealth level, and Labor has been in power at the State level for like 8 years (i should look that up). So, i dont know actually. I just got that impression.
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