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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 02:57   #1
Monroe
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Ship Stat Analysis

This post is mostly about getting my predictions in writting. I have run an analysis of the ships stats that is based purely on two factors, ships relative initiative and the relative targeting of each ship. Because this is still a work in progress I will not reveal the details of how my analysis works right yet, but I will make the following predictions, some of which may apear obvious but others may not. Keep in mind my analysis does no take into effect firepower and armour, so balance my predictions based against those known ratios.

Firstly some ships that will be good this round:
Terran:
Gryphon and Dragon will rock.
Cath:
Roach and Spider are the best ships in the game.
Xan:
Only rocking ship for the xans will be Nightmare, overall Xan ships are a very mixed bag, some really good ships and some really bad ones.
Zik:
Best Zik ship will be Corsair, my analysis doesn't account for the stealing factor, but overall Zik will be weaker then last round.

Ships that will do poorly:
Terran:
Drake, Basilisk, Chimera
Cath:
Blackwidow
Xan:
Ghost, Specter, Apparition are the worst ships in the game
Zik:
Clipps, Bucs, Pirates are all weak

Overall things discovered by analysis:
There are a TON of DEs this round (nine) and lots of things that fire at them, making DE fleets of any sort messy. Overall Terran and Xan are about even, and Cath/Terran/Xan are about the same initiative balance as last round with Ziks being significantly weaker then last round.

Anyway this analysis tool is a work in progress, we'll see how the round treats this method. You are of course welcome to agree or disagree with my analysis to your heart's content, only time will tell if there is any merrit to my method.
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 03:17   #2
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

One more note. Because Terran's best two ships target the same class (DE) it skews their stats to the positive more then it should. Gryphons are redundant as Dragons do the same job only are a good roid fleet, so over all in my opinion Terrans are weaker then my analysis suggests.
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 04:26   #3
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

There is 2 things interesting in the Xan fleet:
- 3 Fi when there's no pod in this class (the only other example of 3 kill ship in a class is the Terran DE, but then they also have a DE pod).
- no CR and no BS in the Xan fleet, that must be a first.

On the first point, i think 1 of the Fi should have been made a CO, atm the Sprite looks like a leftover ship.
On the second point, it feels like an advantage. Xans don't have to research and construct anything for big ships and can rush for faster eta. There's 10 ships (all races) that don't target Xans.
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 12:12   #4
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

A lot of people have mentioned how poor the Black Widow seems to be.

To me, that's a surprise. It's not a ship in a pod class, but it's 2-3 times more effective at stopping Battleships, resource for resource, than any other ship in the game. Ok, it only EMPs but that's still quite some ratio.

I knocked together an efficiency table. It's a bit confusing, but you're welcome to look:

http://game.planetarion.com/statsanalysis.pl

The Black Widow EMPs 160% of it's own resources in terms of Leviathons.
The other contenders are:
Basilisk (70%)
Tarantula (68%)
Ghost (72%)
Pirate (62%, Steal).

Also, note that EMP is more effective vs the other Bs, whereas kill/steal ships are less effective (due to armour/EMP differences).
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 12:20   #5
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Yeah, but the main problem with EMP is that you must stun 100% of the enemy's fleetscore before it even becomes effective. Additionally, the enemy has no incentive to recall, thus tying down your BW for the whole night on just one defence mission.

Compare that to kill ships; Kill ships only need to kill around 30% to make people recall in most instances. Additionally, you are far more likely to cause recalls (though potentially launch/recalls as well) by sending kill ships. This benefits the defender, usually, as more co-ords become available, there is more time to react, and the enemy becomes vulnerable to counters and/or fleetcatching if they are going to be predictable.

So really, you need to compare 100% of EMP to 40% of kill; if they are around the same, then EMP is about comparable to kill in terms of effectiveness (if not efficiency).
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 12:35   #6
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Eta advantage? Not targeted? Priceless
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 12:36   #7
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultimate Newbie
So really, you need to compare 100% of EMP to 40% of kill; if they are around the same, then EMP is about comparable to kill in terms of effectiveness (if not efficiency).
100/40 = 2.5
160/68 = 2.35

Hence black widow is effective, roughly (if not efficient)? (To take into account the "must" to build roach it makes sense to build tarantula instead, though, as tarantula fits in with the fleet and gives you some EMP flak against the less effective scarabs, ehh).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alessio
Eta advantage? Priceless
Wrong.
Effectivity, five quid.
Efficiency, fifty quid.
ETA advantage, ten thousand quid.
Part of an attack fleet, priceless.
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 12:40   #8
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
100/40 = 2.5
160/68 = 2.35
In that case, provided that the "premium" for discouraging landing because of actually killing things, the BW would be "effective".

I never said it didnt, just the comparing efficiencies with EMP isnt a fantastic idea imo.
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 14:25   #9
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

part of an attack fleet doesn't make it that great a def ship especially with mil scans, surely
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 14:32   #10
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by jerome
part of an attack fleet doesn't make it that great a def ship especially with mil scans, surely
I think that depends. If its part of an attack fleet, then more units will be built by those players of that race, and as such its harder to attack them because obviously there are more of your counter units, plus the rest of his attack fleet acts as flak (a problem if you are trying to EMP his fleet etc).

Otoh, if you choose to attack late enough, after pretty much everyone has sent their attack fleets, then you might not enounter all that many because of the lack of available fleets at that time.

Thus, i think it depends.
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 14:39   #11
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

i meant as an alliance def ship of course!
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Unread 4 Oct 2006, 18:23   #12
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by jerome
i meant as an alliance def ship of course!
As an alliance defence ship it's definately obsolete being part of an attack fleet. Now, were we talking about alliance defence fleets? If you look at how cathaar is practically forced to build up a cruiser fleet, well. I can't say but that tarantula fits the cruiser fleet perfectly, and it's self-defensively better than the black widow, and - even if you don't need to attack with it - you'll probably want to build roach a lot anyways to keep off the two destroyer fleets, and, it just matches up.

And, if you don't build it for attack fleet, in my opinion, it still beats the black widow in a lot of cases.
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 00:23   #13
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Scarab and rogue will be around a lot as cath cruisers seem to eat xan and terran for breakfast
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 03:24   #14
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

On the topic of black widows. In my analysis I am looking at what the ship targets verses what targets it. So in the case of the bw there are 5 BS that it targets, at the same time there are five non BS that target the bw thereby limiting it's overall effectiveness (in my calc making it a 0 overall). My analysis however doesn't take into account the fact however that in most cases bw is a defensive ship and so will only be facing BS not non BS. However, there is a good chance that bw owners will be attacked with ships that target FR making it necesarry to run bw or face loosing them, which while bw may be an effective BS counter, make it a liabity in same cases.
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 07:49   #15
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
On the topic of black widows. In my analysis I am looking at what the ship targets verses what targets it. So in the case of the bw there are 5 BS that it targets, at the same time there are five non BS that target the bw thereby limiting it's overall effectiveness (in my calc making it a 0 overall). My analysis however doesn't take into account the fact however that in most cases bw is a defensive ship and so will only be facing BS not non BS. However, there is a good chance that bw owners will be attacked with ships that target FR making it necesarry to run bw or face loosing them, which while bw may be an effective BS counter, make it a liabity in same cases.
Any given ship can be killed by ships it does not target, making it a liability in some cases. If you analyse based on what a ship targets versus what targets it, you'll probably find that there's very little useful ships around. Besides, for any non-pod fleet it's really one and same if it gets targetted by something, the key is if it gets targetted by the podclass it targets, and how, right?

Sounds like an unnecessarily complicated analysis to me if you take into account all ships that target a given defence ship.
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 08:05   #16
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Well, really what you should be doing is comparing the defence ship to the likely attacking combo; if the combo is for example a Terran BA plus syren, then the fact that the Syren will own the defence ship is important; the fact that an Interceptor does also target it, is not important.

I reckon.
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 10:21   #17
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

if nothing else, this stats at least have provided something vaguely resembling a good stats discussion, shame cath are still pretty awful so it's somewhat irrelevant though
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 13:42   #18
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Bring back the Fighter-class pod!!
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 13:48   #19
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
Any given ship can be killed by ships it does not target, making it a liability in some cases. If you analyse based on what a ship targets versus what targets it, you'll probably find that there's very little useful ships around. Besides, for any non-pod fleet it's really one and same if it gets targetted by something, the key is if it gets targetted by the podclass it targets, and how, right?

Sounds like an unnecessarily complicated analysis to me if you take into account all ships that target a given defence ship.

I can understand this position because I havn't revealed my method, but this actual doesn't end up happening. My method does in fact take into account pod classes and several other factors. As a result you do in fact get a range of good ships and bad ships. I used my method to analyize both of the previous two rounds and my method sucessfully predicted most of the ships that did the best and the worst. When it comes to fights its not JUST about using ships that arn't targeted by the attacking class, but also ships that fire before the attacking class and several other factors. The reason for creating this initiative based method of stats analysis is to try and have a quantitative method for determining the initiative advantage of each ship, which at the moment there is no way to really quantify the advantage one ship has over another in terms of iniative, which imo is the most important factor in terms of the value of any given ship. Because if you shoot first (or arn't targeted at all) you always have an advantage.
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 14:34   #20
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

some issues with the stats:
1/ terran is more or less unroidable, as tarantulas and nightmares are awful ships.
2/ terran is further strengthened by the fact that it'd be pointless for ziks to steal bs as they can't build any bs - so they've no actual flak.
3/ terran is basically the xandathrii of r11, what i mean by this is, not only are they a hard race to roid but their main defence ships that they'll be vary of when attacking is their own ones.
4/ d/c of terran is equal to xand.. whilst also having at least 1.5x their armour .............................
5/ cath still doesn't work.
6/ the prices are all stupid but maybe this is personal preference but it's plainly irritating and ridiculous to see that the biggest xan ship is smaller than a terran corvette ...


more will come later
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 14:57   #21
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Xan firepower needs to be increased, without a doubt.

Also, I'm not thrilled about their Corvettes...

A Fighter-class pod would be nifty *cough*
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 16:13   #22
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

suggestions:
(16:02:53) <jer> rogues -> de kill cr, bucc -> bs steals cr, increase tarant dmg rather than xand anti-bs, drop pulsar init, nightmare 38/39 for a/c and d/c
(16:04:15) <jer> increase pulsar to 30/40 or basically 1 value up on both from now, swap a/c ratios of de and bs (aka make de better a/c wise)
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 20:45   #23
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Zik having no bs??
What the f.....
I want more ability to fake fleets, but without building bs on my own and not farming no zik will get enough bs to build a proper bs-fleet. and that nice ship called pirate is a useless defship against bs. maybe building de to steal some cr is nice but without being able to fake em in several ways will make it very hard to get roids if not taking part in big gal/ally-raids :-(

but maybe im totally wrong......

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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 21:13   #24
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

I love the pulsar scandal.. 23% OF THE GAME IS GONNA BE UP FOR A SUPRISE lolololol
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Unread 5 Oct 2006, 21:39   #25
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

can someone please change the banshee name to pulsar again

oh and i take back one of my suggestions, one of pulsar or nightmare should go back to their shittier selves
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Unread 6 Oct 2006, 14:28   #26
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

xand's DE's emp resistance needs to be lowered a lot, i'm presuming appoco made a mistake as he didn't realise the costs were so low, they're in fact better than every other de in the game in terms of e/res

proof: 100 Roach (10k) will freeze Chimera: 52 (14k) Pegasus: 44 (14k) Drake: 36 (14k) Demeter: 32 (14k) Ghost: 176 (6336) Spectre: 136 (10k) Haunt: 176 (15k) Clipper: 96 (17k) Buccaneer: 76 (18k) Ironclad: 60 (18k)

nothing short of ridiculous, ghosts e-res should be halved at the very least and spectre 66% of current.
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Unread 6 Oct 2006, 17:41   #27
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

One more note, given the fact that the stats have changes, my predictions are no longer valid. :-p
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Unread 6 Oct 2006, 22:52   #28
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

yeah all my planning out the window -
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Unread 7 Oct 2006, 12:56   #29
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

lol you guys should know they change stats till last min every round so next time start this when round starts and we will all singup late
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Unread 7 Oct 2006, 13:22   #30
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

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yeah all my planning out the window -
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Unread 7 Oct 2006, 15:24   #31
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

shut up and just play the game instead of moaning about the stats. We can alll see them and we all get the choice of race we wish to play. So the rest is up to you
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Unread 7 Oct 2006, 23:12   #32
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

in case you havent noticed this is the strategy discussion forum, wtf is wrong with discussing how the stats will play out? Alot of people want to hear others thoughts on the matchups.
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 00:08   #33
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

the guy is an idiot, almost as stupid as xand's de's e-res is which for god knows what reason has been left alone in it's ridiculous state........
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 01:44   #34
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Everytime someone says e-res it makes me giggle, reminds me of e-penis

And PLEASE do something with jer's stats changes :/
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 13:29   #35
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoom
And PLEASE do something with jer's stats changes :/
As you should well know by now, they've been taken under advisement. Obviously, significant change to races and stats tends not to be done overnight, and definately wont be done at such a late stage. As i've said elsewhere, Jer's stats will be strongly considered for next round, as we will have had pretty much a whole round to think about them and determine whether any alternatives exist.

Strange as it may seem, not everyone is in favour of Jer's stats. Whilst unanimous support is obviously not a prerequisite for the adoption of stats, just because a number of people repeatedly post the same thing on these forums (whose ability to represent the playing community is questionable), does not mean that the stats are either a good thing for the game, or should be implemented at the exclusion of any other alternatives.

I will tolerate no more whinging regarding this issue on this forum. If you have a problem with that, raise with me in PM. I've nothing against assessing the feasibility and quality of jer's (or anyone else's stats). Just make sure you (meaning everyone) dont cross the line in future.
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 13:44   #36
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

who cares about my stats now, the round has started, i'm more worried about the abnormality i reported in the past 2 posts that were ignored by the pateam quite stupidly :/
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 13:47   #37
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by jerome
xand's DE's emp resistance needs to be lowered a lot, i'm presuming appoco made a mistake as he didn't realise the costs were so low, they're in fact better than every other de in the game in terms of e/res

proof: 100 Roach (10k) will freeze Chimera: 52 (14k) Pegasus: 44 (14k) Drake: 36 (14k) Demeter: 32 (14k) Ghost: 176 (6336) Spectre: 136 (10k) Haunt: 176 (15k) Clipper: 96 (17k) Buccaneer: 76 (18k) Ironclad: 60 (18k)

nothing short of ridiculous, ghosts e-res should be halved at the very least and spectre 66% of current.

you see this UN? who cares about next round?
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 14:04   #38
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by jerome
who cares about my stats now, the round has started, i'm more worried about the abnormality i reported in the past 2 posts that were ignored by the pateam quite stupidly :/
Meh, just got back from a weekend away - the "view first unread" only showed Stoom's post so i just assumed.

Nevertheless, the whinging rule applies still!

As for Xan DE EMP Resistance, it seems to be an abboration or oversight, however its obviously too late to change it now. I could speculate that Appoco might have left it there because he saw that Cathaar was - perhaps - too powerful against all its targets, and thus the high DE EMP Res should lead to some interesting tactical outcomes for this round.......
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 14:18   #39
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultimate Newbie
Meh, just got back from a weekend away - the "view first unread" only showed Stoom's post so i just assumed.

Nevertheless, the whinging rule applies still!

As for Xan DE EMP Resistance, it seems to be an abboration or oversight, however its obviously too late to change it now. I could speculate that Appoco might have left it there because he saw that Cathaar was - perhaps - too powerful against all its targets, and thus the high DE EMP Res should lead to some interesting tactical outcomes for this round.......
I was talking about jer's emp res post :/
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 14:22   #40
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoom
I was talking about jer's emp res post :/
I gathered.

Now.
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 14:43   #41
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

the tactical "outcome" will be that it will only take 1 fleet of xand de to stop most cath cr attacks... :|
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 21:40   #42
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

The alternative was that Cath could roid Xan at will with both of their roiding fleets. At least they'll only be able to do it with Co fleets now.
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Unread 8 Oct 2006, 23:43   #43
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

aren't cath "meant" to be able to do that
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 00:40   #44
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

and clearly cath dont have anything else to roid tbh
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 01:01   #45
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcChas
The alternative was that Cath could roid Xan at will with both of their roiding fleets. At least they'll only be able to do it with Co fleets now.
I've never even heard of a cath freezer that froze the xan ship it targets at a 1:1 value rate. In fact I doubt it's ever happened before in PA history to be honest
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 02:10   #46
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

There's nothing outrageous in having a xan ship resistant to EMP (there is a Terran ship with fast init...)
Xan can't attack Caths, if they can't def against them either it's a bit too much. Now the problem is if the Caths can't attack anyone else...
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 11:46   #47
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

note that the roach freezes only 60% of it's value in ghosts..

...

that's utterly obscene and easily the WORST emp efficiency i have ever seen
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Unread 15 Oct 2006, 16:55   #48
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

and thats why terr will win the round
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Unread 15 Oct 2006, 21:21   #49
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

what?
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Unread 15 Oct 2006, 21:54   #50
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Re: Ship Stat Analysis

I must say, Terran, Cathaar and Xan are well balanced! More than I've recently seen. Only zik is a little behind.. but let's see how they'll do a little later on

PA team (almost) did it this time! gratz
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