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10 Jan 2006, 10:43
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#1
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Heh, Leeds !
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: In The Redfern
Posts: 3,790
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This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Does this mean that the remake of animal farm is off ?
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The George Harrison of BlueTuba
Yes, I know he is dead !
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10 Jan 2006, 11:37
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#2
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Registered Abuser
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lincoln!!
Posts: 425
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
I thought i had bird flu a while back..................
I couldn't stop talking bollocks and suddenly found myself unable to reverse into a parking space!
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The hungriest man will eat the dirtiest meat.
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10 Jan 2006, 12:49
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#3
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Throwing Shapes
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 797
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
The BBC made me laugh with their tag line:
"Turkey Diagnoses Human Bird Flu".
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Time is an Illusion, Lunchtime doubly so.
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10 Jan 2006, 12:50
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#4
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Lucky
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: -
Posts: 3,830
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
priii priii
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10 Jan 2006, 13:40
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#5
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Has Soup On His Head
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 10,095
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaio
Does this mean that the remake of animal farm is off ?
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Your ex has the female lead?
Or the other lead?
__________________
And the Banker, inspired with a courage so new
It was matter for general remark,
Rushed madly ahead and was lost to their view
In his zeal to discover the Snark
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10 Jan 2006, 15:06
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#6
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Tiny Dancer
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Yellow Brick Road
Posts: 355
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
The "i dont have it so it doesnt exist" attitude towards bird flu is a tiny bit silly.
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[16:09] <eJohn> im still standing
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10 Jan 2006, 18:53
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#7
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We are but Men... ROCK!
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 62
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
I just think the concept of being worried about a virus EVOLVING into something horrible is hilarious. We don't have enough problems, now we have to look down the evolutionary chain for things to kill us. Between Osama Bin Laden, gang violence, and that dickhead in the blue Porsche every morning on my way to work, I have more pressing issues waiting to kill me.
Of course, it's entirely possible that I don't know what I'm talking about
__________________
Just a few household chemicals in the proper proportions.
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10 Jan 2006, 18:56
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#8
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The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bromcrysal
I just think the concept of being worried about a virus EVOLVING into something horrible is hilarious. We don't have enough problems, now we have to look down the evolutionary chain for things to kill us. Between Osama Bin Laden, gang violence, and that dickhead in the blue Porsche every morning on my way to work, I have more pressing issues waiting to kill me.
Of course, it's entirely possible that I don't know what I'm talking about
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How do you think viruses arise if not by evolution? Or did you think that viruses couldn't harm you?
In a more complete point, viruses can be dangerous, and evolve immensely quickly. A new flu strain arises at least once a year.
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10 Jan 2006, 19:00
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#9
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Klaatu barada nikto
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: St. Paul, Minnesota
Posts: 3,237
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
How do you think viruses arise if not by evolution?
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Intelligent design?
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The Ottawa Citizen and Southam News wish to apologize for our apology to Mark Steyn, published Oct. 22. In correcting the incorrect statements about Mr. Steyn published Oct. 15, we incorrectly published the incorrect correction. We accept and regret that our original regrets were unacceptable and we apologize to Mr. Steyn for any distress caused by our previous apology.
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10 Jan 2006, 19:03
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#10
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We are but Men... ROCK!
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 62
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
In the southeast of America last year it was the West Nile Virus, spread by mosquitos, coming to kill us all. It didn't matter that West Nile only killed the really old or people with weak immune systems, like AIDS patients. The year before that it was Mad Cow Disease, coming from Canada, to kill us all. Influenza kills more people in a Month than these two diseases combined, but you don't see news programs about covering your mouth when you sneeze or people not washing thier hands after they pee.
Sorry about the rant. It just seems like there is always a hot new way to die, and so many resources are spent on stopping the disease that gets the news coverage. While Cancer has been going strong for ten thousand years, and our wonderous medical professionals still couldn't save my Aunt last year.
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Just a few household chemicals in the proper proportions.
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10 Jan 2006, 19:06
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#11
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Tiny Dancer
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Yellow Brick Road
Posts: 355
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
"world pandemic" fatigue isnt unexpected or unforgivable.
What i dont like is the fact that because the western world hasnt been infected and struck by the bird flu, people presume its not happening.
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[16:09] <eJohn> im still standing
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10 Jan 2006, 19:07
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#12
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The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bromcrysal
Sorry about the rant. It just seems like there is always a hot new way to die, and so many resources are spent on stopping the disease that gets the news coverage. While Cancer has been going strong for ten thousand years, and our wonderous medical professionals still couldn't save my Aunt last year.
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Cancer is a lot more difficult to understand, a lot more difficult to prevent and a lot more difficult to cure than flu. And, theoretically, a lot less dangerous.
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10 Jan 2006, 19:16
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#13
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
I think in more informed circles bird flu is seen as significantly more of a threat than any other illness for a long long time.
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10 Jan 2006, 19:30
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#14
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We are but Men... ROCK!
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 62
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Who are these informed people. I'd like to go wherever they are and tell them that threats that might materialize are less important than threats that are already here...
Influenza (regular old fashioned Flu) already kills enough people. 36,000 people in the USA every year. (sorry, couldn't find world stats) My point is just that there are plenty of diseases that need worrying now, rather than what might be. I'm not saying it should be ignored, but there are much more important things to be done.
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Just a few household chemicals in the proper proportions.
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10 Jan 2006, 19:35
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#15
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mmm lambs
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: London
Posts: 1,906
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by eJohn
What i dont like is the fact that because the western world hasnt been infected and struck by the bird flu, people presume its not happening.
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Juding by the fact sales of the drug that can combat bird flu are soaring, and not just amongst governments, I would say that many people are aware and extremely worried about the threat of bird flu. Even the death of a few people by it gets huge media coverage.
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I drink therefore I am
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10 Jan 2006, 19:43
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#16
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bromcrysal
Who are these informed people. I'd like to go wherever they are and tell them that threats that might materialize are less important than threats that are already here...
Influenza (regular old fashioned Flu) already kills enough people. 36,000 people in the USA every year. (sorry, couldn't find world stats) My point is just that there are plenty of diseases that need worrying now, rather than what might be. I'm not saying it should be ignored, but there are much more important things to be done.
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and a more deadly form of influenze could kill millions worldwide.
of course there are other diseases that also need watching but the biggest pandemic risk at the moment is Bird Flu...
Do you think that by worrying about Bird Flu they are forgetting about the diseases that are already present (and largely preventable or at least containable)?
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10 Jan 2006, 19:44
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#17
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lolly roffle
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 5,514
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by midge5
Juding by the fact sales of the drug that can combat bird flu are soaring, and not just amongst governments
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The problem is, they could well be useless.
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eXcessum
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10 Jan 2006, 19:50
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#18
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Banned
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Further to the right
Posts: 19,441
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by eJohn
"world pandemic" fatigue isnt unexpected or unforgivable.
What i dont like is the fact that because the western world hasnt been infected and struck by the bird flu, people presume its not happening.
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Who the hell presumes it's not happening? It's like one of the top stories on every news programme at the minute for god's sake. I'm not getting the paranoia thing vaio is talking about either. Bird flu has killed people. The threat of someone with influenza catching it at the same time is very real and very significant and could result in a staggering loss of life.
__________________
Some might ask what good is life without purpose but I'm anticipating a good lunch.
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10 Jan 2006, 20:10
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#19
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Clerk
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 13,940
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
The threat of someone with influenza catching it at the same time is very real and very significant and could result in a staggering loss of life.
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Erm....what? Is that actually how it works? I thought we were waiting for it to mutate - or is this some sort of strange cross pollenation type thing? (note, I've not really paid attention to the news coverage on this)
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10 Jan 2006, 20:11
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#20
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Aardvark is a funny word
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: I'm No Nino Rota
Posts: 5,923
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Erm....what? Is that actually how it works? I thought we were waiting for it to mutate - or is this some sort of strange cross pollenation type thing? (note, I've not really paid attention to the news coverage on this)
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we're waiting for it to mutate, but someone with regular flu catching it could well cause it to do so.
__________________
Efficiency, efficiency they say
Get to know the date and tell the time of day
As the crowds begin complaining
How the Beaujolais is raining
Down on darkened meetings on the Champs Élysées
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10 Jan 2006, 20:17
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#21
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Banned
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Further to the right
Posts: 19,441
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Erm....what? Is that actually how it works? I thought we were waiting for it to mutate - or is this some sort of strange cross pollenation type thing? (note, I've not really paid attention to the news coverage on this)
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The threat of it spontaneously mutating is a lot less than the threat of it mutating when the two viruses are active at the same time in someone. I wouldn't swear on this but I'm pretty sure that's how it works.
__________________
Some might ask what good is life without purpose but I'm anticipating a good lunch.
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11 Jan 2006, 00:37
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#22
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Has Soup On His Head
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 10,095
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by horn
there are hidden bennefits
we could live x-men 4 !!
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Reminds me
The trailer for Xmen 3 is now out. here
__________________
And the Banker, inspired with a courage so new
It was matter for general remark,
Rushed madly ahead and was lost to their view
In his zeal to discover the Snark
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11 Jan 2006, 03:01
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#23
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mmm lambs
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: London
Posts: 1,906
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by JC
The problem is, they could well be useless.
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It seems they are already starting to become so
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
The threat of it spontaneously mutating is a lot less than the threat of it mutating when the two viruses are active at the same time in someone. I wouldn't swear on this but I'm pretty sure that's how it works.
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The question on Turkey appears to back you up
If this is the case then it also increases the chances of the virus mutating into a form that can pass easily between humans - as it is more likely to mix with human influenza viruses.
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I drink therefore I am
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11 Jan 2006, 07:47
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 227
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
I think in more informed circles bird flu is seen as significantly more of a threat than any other illness for a long long time.
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I think in more informed circles the informed circles your talking about are seen as talking a bunch of tosh.
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11 Jan 2006, 11:47
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#25
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Registered Awesome Person
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 5,676
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Chunderbunny, he wasn't talking about the real informed circles. He was politely calling you an idiot who has failed to show any glimmer of hope that you know what you're talking about.
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Finally free!
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11 Jan 2006, 11:56
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#26
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Hibernating
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Team Kesha
Posts: 1,621
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
There's always something coming to kill us, if it isn't birdflu, then its mad cows disease or the y2k bug that was going to crash all our computers & launch nuclear missiles at us. It's the media that makes things look alot worse then they really are. There have been like 2 casualties in "europe" because of birdflu (depending if you count the turks as europeans). And it was in a remote place with no medical facilities in miles.
Don't quit your day-job & start running to the hills just yet...
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[InSomnia]
Official designated driver
[ToF] - [eXilition] - [Rock] - [Denial] - [DLR] - [eVolution] - [ODDR] - [HR] - [Ultores] - [Apprime] - [Ironborn]
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11 Jan 2006, 12:02
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 4,290
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veedeejem!
There's always something coming to kill us, if it isn't birdflu, then its mad cows disease or the y2k bug that was going to crash all our computers & launch nuclear missiles at us. It's the media that makes things look alot worse then they really are. There have been like 2 casualties in "europe" because of birdflu (depending if you count the turks as europeans). And it was in a remote place with no medical facilities in miles.
Don't quit your day-job & start running to the hills just yet...
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If it mutates we could end up with something like this, so I guess 'some' concern about it is quite ok.
__________________
im not tolerant, i just dont care.
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11 Jan 2006, 15:42
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#28
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Heh, Leeds !
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: In The Redfern
Posts: 3,790
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
Who the hell presumes it's not happening? It's like one of the top stories on every news programme at the minute for god's sake. I'm not getting the paranoia thing vaio is talking about either. Bird flu has killed people. The threat of someone with influenza catching it at the same time is very real and very significant and could result in a staggering loss of life.
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How many serious threats to human life have appeared recently ?
The nile disease thingy, AIDS and even Y2k was 'promoted' as a serious problem.
We are all (mostly) still here and civilization has yet to break down inspite of the media and its doom sayers.
__________________
The George Harrison of BlueTuba
Yes, I know he is dead !
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11 Jan 2006, 15:51
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#29
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Clerk
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 13,940
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaio
How many serious threats to human life have appeared recently ?
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To individuals, or the whole collective civilisation? The only realistic things I can think of which would stand a chance of wiping out everyone would be some kind of uber nuclear conflict, some sort of meteor collision and maybe an extreme runaway global climate change scenario. Even in the first or last of those I can imagine some people surviving somewhere (even if just in a bunker).
The threat is not really extinction but more "a lot" of people dying, and to be fair a lot of people are already suffering because of AIDS and most projections point to it getting worse before it gets better.
The mid point in terms of carnage (civilisation "collapsing") is pretty subjective. Did civilisation in the former Yugoslavia collapse? What about sub-Saharan Africa? If Europe was suddenly reduced to an African level of economic welfare, would that be civilisation collapsing?
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11 Jan 2006, 15:56
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#30
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Banned
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Further to the right
Posts: 19,441
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaio
How many serious threats to human life have appeared recently ?
The nile disease thingy, AIDS and even Y2k was 'promoted' as a serious problem.
We are all (mostly) stills here and civilization has yet to break down inspite of the media and its doom sayers.
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AIDS KILLED OVER THREE MILLION PEOPLE LAST YEAR YOU LUNATIC.
This is a serious problem. It's almost certainly not a civilisation ending problem because those are few and far between. I have not encountered many if any serious news reports proposing that bird flu could wipe out civilisation. What it could cause is immense economic damage and a huge number of deaths (not like 99.7% of the world population or whatever as that's just stupid). It could set many countries back decades in their development and quite possibly push some delicately balanced ones over the edge. The reason problems don't develop into global catastrophes is that people take the actions necessary to counter them.
I can't believe you just implied AIDS wasn't a serious problem and I took the time to reply to you.The mind boggles.
__________________
Some might ask what good is life without purpose but I'm anticipating a good lunch.
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11 Jan 2006, 19:27
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#31
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Hibernating
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Team Kesha
Posts: 1,621
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by wu_trax
If it mutates we could end up with something like this, so I guess 'some' concern about it is quite ok.
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Some concern is quite ok, but atm every newsreport you watch has atleast something to do with chicken flue. No need to overreact imo, but that's seems to be the trend nowadays...
Btw an uncle of my father was infected with the spanish flu back in the days, he survived though and after that he never got sick again (atleast so i've been told)
__________________
[InSomnia]
Official designated driver
[ToF] - [eXilition] - [Rock] - [Denial] - [DLR] - [eVolution] - [ODDR] - [HR] - [Ultores] - [Apprime] - [Ironborn]
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11 Jan 2006, 20:03
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: London
Posts: 3,347
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
these two fat hairy biker chefs prepared transylvanian chicken for Richard and Judy today.
Expecting some good news tomorrow.
__________________
The 20th century has been characterised by three developments of great political importance. The growth of democracy; the growth of corporate power; and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of protecting corporate power against democracy.
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11 Jan 2006, 20:30
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#33
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The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by All Systems Go
these two fat hairy biker chefs prepared transylvanian chicken for Richard and Judy today.
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One of the two fat ladies died years ago
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11 Jan 2006, 23:48
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#34
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Registered Awesome Person
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 5,676
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veedeejem!
Some concern is quite ok, but atm every newsreport you watch has atleast something to do with chicken flue. No need to overreact imo, but that's seems to be the trend nowadays...
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Some concern?
The Black Death killed 25 million people in Europe in the mid-14th century outbreak. Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people worldwide. There may be major differences in population sizes, but the point remains the same: it does matter, and shutting your eyes and going 'la la la la la i'm not listening' won't prevent a global pandemic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veedeejam!
Btw an uncle of my father was infected with the spanish flu back in the days, he survived though and after that he never got sick again (atleast so i've been told)
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The mortality rate of Spanish flu was 2.5%-5%, so it's not suprising that he survived. 20-30% of the global population caught it, for comparison. I don't think you can dismiss bird flu out of hand just because one of your relatives survived a different influnza-based pandemic.
__________________
Finally free!
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12 Jan 2006, 00:18
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#35
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USS Oklahoma
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,500
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
Some concern?
The Black Death killed 25 million people in Europe in the mid-14th century outbreak. Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people worldwide. There may be major differences in population sizes, but the point remains the same: it does matter, and shutting your eyes and going 'la la la la la i'm not listening' won't prevent a global pandemic.
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What can you or I do? I might as well ignore it until they determine that it HAS mutated and is starting to spread AND they come up with a vaccine or something that increases my chances of living. Until then, wringing my hands a crying, "Oh, woe is me! We are all going to die!" seems somewhat less than usefull.
In the meantime, I have heard that Bush is trying to rig it so that they develope a cure that can only be taken by eating pork so as to end the terrorist problem. He is still working on a way to save the Jews though.
__________________
Ignorance is curable, stupidity is not.
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12 Jan 2006, 00:28
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#36
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Registered Awesome Person
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 5,676
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
The previous posters (Vaio, Veedeejam!) were saying that we were over-reacting and that it wasn't particularly important: that was what I was taking issue with. No, we as individuals can't do a whole lot at the moment (aside from not going near chickens while down with the flu). However, an inability to act shouldn't equal a decision not to be concerned.
__________________
Finally free!
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12 Jan 2006, 01:51
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 227
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
Chunderbunny, he wasn't talking about the real informed circles. He was politely calling you an idiot who has failed to show any glimmer of hope that you know what you're talking about.
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Yes, I must be a complete and utter ****ing retard to not realise that someone is calling me an idiot in a thread which I hadn't posted previously in
Plus, I was politely pointing out that there are well informed people who believe the opposite of what these informed people say. Of course, being a spastic myself, I wouldn't realise this, or have the brain capacity to actually consider the situation in any way, shape or form for myself.
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12 Jan 2006, 01:55
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#38
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USS Oklahoma
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,500
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chunderbunny
Yes, I must be a complete and utter ****ing retard to not realise that someone is calling me an idiot in a thread which I hadn't posted previously in
Plus, I was politely pointing out that there are well informed people who believe the opposite of what these informed people say. Of course, being a spastic myself, I wouldn't realise this, or have the brain capacity to actually consider the situation in any way, shape or form for myself.
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To thy own self be true.
__________________
Ignorance is curable, stupidity is not.
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12 Jan 2006, 01:59
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#39
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Banned
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Further to the right
Posts: 19,441
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chunderbunny
Yes, I must be a complete and utter ****ing retard to not realise that someone is calling me an idiot in a thread which I hadn't posted previously in
Plus, I was politely pointing out that there are well informed people who believe the opposite of what these informed people say. Of course, being a spastic myself, I wouldn't realise this, or have the brain capacity to actually consider the situation in any way, shape or form for myself.
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You are sort of implying an informed consensus here which really doesn't exist.
__________________
Some might ask what good is life without purpose but I'm anticipating a good lunch.
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12 Jan 2006, 02:17
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#40
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Registered Awesome Person
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 5,676
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chunderbunny
Yes, I must be a complete and utter ****ing retard to not realise that someone is calling me an idiot in a thread which I hadn't posted previously in
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I didn't mean just this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chunderbunny
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Right, this Morton article masquerading as the Holy Grail. The article opposes the "many people in the various green movements feel compelled to add on the notion that the planet itself is in crisis, or doomed; that all life on earth is threatened." On this, I agree with him, because on a global scale, the planet is not threatened. Most species will survive global warming, albeit they will have to move areas. However, he is not referring to the human race on this - in fact, he argues that mass extinctions are probably a good thing for the planet.
But they're not for us. And that's why I'm opposed to things that kill us when we have the ability to stop them. I don't believe that our effect on global warming is not reversable, if only goverments collectively choose to do something about it, even if it's not in their own self-interest (China, India).
Where your source falls down, Mr. Chunderbunny (if that is your real name), is that it in no way refers to bird flu. The informed circles this little tantrum started over were referring to bird flu, exclusively I might add. We weren't talking about global warming. We weren't talking about extinction cycles. And if this is the very best you can produce, then I fear for the future arguments you wish to make.
__________________
Finally free!
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12 Jan 2006, 02:40
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 227
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
I didn't mean just this thread.
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Read what was originally said, read my quote, then read what you said. Please explain how, in any logical sense, these things could have referred to anything I've said in another thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
Where your source falls down, Mr. Chunderbunny (if that is your real name), is that it in no way refers to bird flu.
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Are we talking about the same article here?
"A New Golden Age of Medicine" - Paul W. Ewald
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12 Jan 2006, 02:55
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 227
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
You are sort of implying an informed consensus here which really doesn't exist.
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I appreciate you probably scanned the article due to the quick time posting a reply to what I said, but the article in question does mention that he is not alone in his thinking. I'm sure further research into the chap would reveal the others he actually mentions and further sources, but to be honest, the work involved in doing that for what is (as I'll point out again) waxing lyrical on a general discussion forum on a website would be ridiculous...
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12 Jan 2006, 02:57
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#43
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Banned
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Further to the right
Posts: 19,441
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
As a matter of fact having ctrl+fed for "bird" in order to find the references to bird flu it appears the guy you're quoting is going against the WHO and the CDC which doesn't exactly argue well for his informed circles credentials. In reality it's significantly more likely he belongs in the "mildly crazed nutjob" circle.
PS ID supporters reference each other's work dude, it doesn't necessarily mean much.
PPS I do agree with some of what he says concerning pharmeceutical companies exploiting people's fears and so on and so forth but I still think that bird flu is one of the most dangerous diseases to arise in the last thirty years or so. Just because some threats are exaggerated doesn't mean the threat doesn't exist (or rather more catchingly 'just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not after you').
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Last edited by JonnyBGood; 12 Jan 2006 at 03:05.
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12 Jan 2006, 03:17
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#44
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Registered Awesome Person
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 5,676
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Re: This Bird Flu Paranoidemic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chunderbunny
Are we talking about the same article here?
"A New Golden Age of Medicine" - Paul W. Ewald
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Nope. Your link finished with #morton, so I found Oliver Morton's last article on the website and commented on that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by article - long
[snip]
Another part of this vision of a new golden age will be the ability to distinguish real threats from pseudo-threats. This ability will allow us to invest in policy and infrastructure that will protect people against real threats without squandering resources and destroying livelihoods in efforts to protect against pseudo-threats. Our present predicament on this front is far from this ideal.
Today experts on infectious diseases and institutions entrusted to protect and improve human health sound the alarm in response to each novel threat. The current fears over a devastating pandemic of bird flu is a case in point. Some of the loudest voices offer a simplistic argument: failing to prepare for the worst-case scenarios is irresponsible and dangerous. This criticism has been recently leveled at me and others who question expert proclamations, such as those from the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control.
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Later on, Ewald says that we should be prepared for a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Surely the likelihood of a class 5 hurricane is less than the likelihood of the worst-case scenario re: bird flu coming about?
Quote:
These proclamations inform us that H5N1 bird flu virus poses an imminent threat of an influenza pandemic similar to or even worse than the 1918 pandemic. I have decreased my popularity in such circles by suggesting that the threat of this scenario is essentially nonexistent. In brief I argue that the 1918 influenza viruses evolved their unique combination of high virulence and high transmissibility in the conditions at the Western Front of World War I.
By transporting contagious flu patients into a series of tightly packed groups of susceptible individuals, personnel fostered transmission from people who were completely immobilized by their illness. Such conditions must have favored the predator-like variants of the influenza virus; these variants would have a competitive edge because they could ruthlessly exploit a person for their own replication and still get transmitted to large numbers of susceptible individuals.
These conditions have not recurred in human populations since then and, accordingly, we have never had any outbreaks of influenza viruses that have been anywhere near as harmful as those that emerged at the Western Front. So long as we do not allow such conditions to occur again we have little to fear from a reevolution of such a predatory virus.
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But we have different, new methods of spreading disease. Trans-continental travel occurs every day, while the influenza virus spreads even more easily than SARS did. Moreover, we won't know that bird flu is spreading until a large group of people have been infected and many will have died before then. The seriousness of bird flu won't be clear until the first stage has been completed. If you've read Executive Orders by Tom Clancy, where the Ebola virus is spread, then you'll see how easy it is for diseases to spread across the world. Ignore the thrilleresque ending, that won't happen in real life.
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The fear of a 1918 style pandemic has fueled preparations by a government which, embarrassed by its failure to deal adequately with the damage from Katrina, seems determined to prepare for any perceived threat to save face. I would have no problem with the accusation of irresponsibility if preparations for a 1918 style pandemic were cost free. But they are not.
The $7 billion that the Bush administration is planning as a downpayment for pandemic preparedness has to come from somewhere. If money is spent to prepare for an imaginary pandemic, our progress could be impeded on other fronts that could lead to or have already established real improvements in public health.
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Political spin, followed by the use of a number - an actual fact! Woo-****ing-hoo. The American federal budget deficit is more than seventy times the cost of protecting people against bird flu. Someone go cry me a river.
Quote:
Conclusions about responsibility or irresponsibility of this argument require that the threat from pandemic influenza be assessed relative to the damage that results from the procurement of the money from other sources. The only reliable evidence of the damage from pandemic influenza under normal circumstances is the experience of the two pandemics that have occurred since 1918, one in 1957 and the other in 1968. The mortality caused by these pandemics was one-tenth to one-hundredth the death toll from the 1918 pandemic.
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I don't think that a bird flu pandemic would be anything like the minor flu panademics in the mid-late 20th century. Look at Spanish flu exclusively for a recent example of a pandemic that reflects the seriousness (mortality rate) of bird flu.
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We do need to be prepared for an influenza pandemic of the normal variety, just as we needed to be prepared for category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. If possible our preparations should allow us to stop an incipient pandemic before it materializes. In contrast with many of the most vocal experts I do not conclude that our surveillance efforts will be quickly overwhelmed by a highly transmissible descendent of the influenza virus that has generated the most recent fright (dubbed H5N1). The transition of the H5N1 virus to a pandemic virus would require evolutionary change.
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I don't think that we're going to be able to know the instant bird flu starts to exist, and then starts to spread. Anything we do do will end up being too little, too late. You can't impose worldwide martial law, can you?
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The dialogue on this matter, however, continues to neglect the primary mechanism of the evolutionary change: natural selection. Instead it is claimed that H5N1 could mutate to become a full-fledged human virus that is both highly transmissible and highly lethal. Mutation provides only the variation on which natural selection acts. We must consider natural selection if we are to make meaningful assessments of the danger posed by the H5N1 virus.
The evolution of the 1918 virus was gradual, and both evidence and theory lead to the conclusion that any evolution of increased transmissibility of H5N1 from human to human will be gradual, as it was with SARS. With surveillance we can detect such changes in humans and intervene to stop further spread as was done with SARS. We do not need to trash the economy of southeast asia each year to accomplish this.
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How exactly can we intervene to stop further spread? SARS and bird flu aren't on the same playing field. Bird flu is far more likely to spread, and spread quickly.
That's all of the relevant stuff to bird flu. He argues as best he can, but he's wrong. Certainly I didn't see any people backing him up, he only makes oblique references to other people in the field who may or may not be on his side. So sorry, but even with the right article, I still don't see an informed circle of bird flu critics.
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