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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 11:49   #301
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by isildurx View Post
How come you two haven't just added each other on msn to discuss this by now
Because I don't use msn nor do I check this forum when I'm not at work. I do enjoy discussing football with him though.
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 11:53   #302
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by isildurx View Post
How come you two haven't just added each other on msn to discuss this by now
It's the work thing, really. Things become awkwardly quiet during the midsummer here, and AJ is boring too. It's not like this is a bad medium for this, though, what else goes on here anyways?
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 12:07   #303
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

That is a very very good question

One thing my dad pointed out to me yesterday is the amazingly high odds for tomorrow's game. Both Spain and Germany are above 2.50 in odds, while a draw is also very high. Very tempting to lump some money on two of the outcomes. Cant remember last time i saw such high odds for all three possibilities.
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 12:21   #304
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Yeah. Two and a half is almost like begging for a 500e on both sides. Which bunch of people gives such high odds? Bwin's below 2,00 for both ends of the tail. Even 3-1 for Germany is "just" 16,00.
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 12:25   #305
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

The odds in Norway(the official betting agency) has 2.55, 3.00, 2.60 as odds. Their odds on Uruguay winning is ****ing 5.95!

edit: Having looked at the odds on the bigger betting sites it seems their odds are lower, weird.
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 12:35   #306
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

That's bleeding true. The resident Finnish betting agency is really awkward too.

Uruguay 6.10, Draw 3.45, Netherlands 1.55.
Germany 2.80, Draw 3.10, Spain 2.40.
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 13:23   #307
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Uruguay at 6.10 is unfathomably high, it is a semi-final of the world cup for ****s sake, Holland aren't THAT big favorites. Its a 40/60 game in my opinion.
Peculiar to see Spain having lower odds than Germany too.
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 13:28   #308
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

I wouldn't put down money for Uruguay though.
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 13:40   #309
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

If Suarez had played I'd consider it, but with so many players out :\
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 13:55   #310
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Which is probably reflected in the odds. Oh well. Maybe I'll drop some on Germany.
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 14:08   #311
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Hehe, Spain will kindly laugh and accept your money ;-)
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 14:16   #312
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

From what I've heard of Spain's current financial and unemployment situation consider any money going that way from me a "development aid".
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 14:19   #313
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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From what I've heard of Spain's current financial and unemployment situation consider any money going that way from me a "development aid".
Like I said, Spain will be very grateful
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 15:57   #314
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

I think the Germans will get their revenge for the EC final 2 years ago
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Unread 6 Jul 2010, 21:20   #315
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

I'm still calling it as my only successful prediction this year around despite it not going off extra time.
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 09:30   #316
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Anyone watched the game last night? Imo a deserved win from Holland, eventhough Uruguay didn't make it easy on them.

The last 4 minutes were even rather exiting, after the 3-2 from Uruguay.
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 09:31   #317
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
Germany's system works because they're Germany. A collection of mostly unordinary players put together sums up for something extraordinary (see: Brazil, where a collection of extraordinary players sums up for something unordinary).

Germany 3 - 1 Spain
Netherlands 3 - 2 Uruguay (et)
I hope you are utterly wrong on your other prediction, because the one from yesterday was spot on :-)
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 09:44   #318
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Well the score rolled yeah, I was expecting for an extra-time though.

I think what made the difference was that the Dutch were consistently good throughout the game, while Uruguay was prone to varying spells of poor and good performance. The latter only really had a grasp of the game late first half and late second half, apart from those it was orange dominance. Good game though, lots of opportunities, lots of goals (and for what it's worth a few outstanding goals too, the Van Bronkhorst strike really dropped my jaw). Hoping for another good one today then.

It's worth noting, however, that Paul, the foreseeing octopus from Germany, has predicted a victory for the Spaniyards. So far Paul (the octopus) has had his tentacles correct on every prediction he's made.
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 09:58   #319
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Well the score rolled yeah, I was expecting for an extra-time though.

I think what made the difference was that the Dutch were consistently good throughout the game, while Uruguay was prone to varying spells of poor and good performance. The latter only really had a grasp of the game late first half and late second half, apart from those it was orange dominance. Good game though, lots of opportunities, lots of goals (and for what it's worth a few outstanding goals too, the Van Bronkhorst strike really dropped my jaw). Hoping for another good one today then.

It's worth noting, however, that Paul, the foreseeing octopus from Germany, has predicted a victory for the Spaniyards. So far Paul (the octopus) has had his tentacles correct on every prediction he's made.
I know, I've put all my hopes on the octopus. Eventhough he said Germany would beat Spain in the previous EC, which was the other way around :-)

The 2nd goal (the one from Forlan) could have been stopped. I think the Dutch keeper didn't really perform well on that one.

Also the first goal of Holland shouldn't have occured as 10 seconds before he made that goal, Holland made a dirty fault on a player but the Referee didn't even see it.

But aside from that, the referee did a pretty decent job.
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 11:46   #320
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Yeah, I do still think the Dutch keeper and the defending quad is going to be the vulnerable part of their team for the finale to However, Boulahrouz in particular I think had an excellent game and will definitely challenge Van Der Wiedl for the full back on the right side spot.
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 17:18   #321
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Worst thing about yesterday's game was the refereeing of our uzebekistani friend which was not good at all. Also, Van Bommel is the biggest **** at the WC.
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 18:10   #322
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Also, Van Bommel is the biggest **** at the WC.

No worries, if they meet Spain in finale he'll have Villa, Busquets, and Torres keep him company on the asshole department.
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 20:17   #323
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Don't tell me that wasn't a foul on Özil
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 20:28   #324
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Oh it was a definite foul.
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 21:18   #325
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Bloody squid was right.

What a dreadfully, dreadfully boring a game though - it seems to carry with Spain. I can't really bring myself to argue that either side'd been impressive in any fashion. Germany lacked so much confidence in possession and Spain was just it's own very slow, very wasteful self mostly lacking the ability to create anything apart from Xabi Alonso shots off target.
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Unread 7 Jul 2010, 21:25   #326
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Deserved win for Spain I guess, Germany was just a shadow of itself
Here's hoping for a better final where Spain wins.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 09:04   #327
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

I'll hand some credit to them if they win it scoring more than once.

If they pull a 1-0 after a dreadfully boring, slow-paced game consisting mostly of passes between the midfielders and Xabi Alonso shots from 30 yards I'll probably just commit a suicide with a rusty teaspoon during the game.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 09:21   #328
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Don't tell me that wasn't a foul on Özil
Yeah, but the fault happened right outside the box, hence a free kick and not a penalty.

All in all a very deserved win. Spain played better, Germany had 1 clear chance (Kroos should have netted that one) while Spain had several ones (Puyol on the first corner, Villa after 3 minutes, Pedro in the end, he should have given it to Torres who had an empty goal).

I must say Del Bosque did an extremely good job. He could have put David Silva on the pitch, but we all know his defending duties aren't so great. And Pedro was just magnificent.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 09:26   #329
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
I'll hand some credit to them if they win it scoring more than once.

If they pull a 1-0 after a dreadfully boring, slow-paced game consisting mostly of passes between the midfielders and Xabi Alonso shots from 30 yards I'll probably just commit a suicide with a rusty teaspoon during the game.
Just because you seem to hate their playingstyle, doesn't mean others need to find it boring. I truely enjoy watching their game. They also played ALOT better then the matches before. Iniesta was remarkable and Pedro was fantastic. Also Ramos was a real nightmare for Boateng.

And Spain should have scored a 2nd goal if only Pedro gave the ball to Torres.

Germany sucked and that was mostly thanks to Spain. They were afraid and the few fast counters they had, were nicely stopped by the defense or screwed up by themselves due to bad passing.

Nway, I'm not gonna argue about taste. If you think Spain has a boring play, fair enough. I strongly disagree, and I'm sure many others do aswell. The game got hyped big time as the "final avant la lettre", as both were the 2 best playing teams on this WC according to many reporters.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 09:27   #330
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
I'll hand some credit to them if they win it scoring more than once.

If they pull a 1-0 after a dreadfully boring, slow-paced game consisting mostly of passes between the midfielders and Xabi Alonso shots from 30 yards I'll probably just commit a suicide with a rusty teaspoon during the game.
Btw, if you DID watch the game, you'd have noticed Spain did use the flanks alot more then in the previous games.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 09:34   #331
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
I'll hand some credit to them if they win it scoring more than once.

If they pull a 1-0 after a dreadfully boring, slow-paced game consisting mostly of passes between the midfielders and Xabi Alonso shots from 30 yards I'll probably just commit a suicide with a rusty teaspoon during the game.
+1

Think I'll just pretend Uruguay - Germany on saturday is the final and see a good game
Holland & Spain are boring to watch.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 09:37   #332
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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+1

Think I'll just pretend Uruguay - Germany on saturday is the final and see a good game
Holland & Spain are boring to watch.
Yeah cuz Germany played so awesome against Spain ;-)
I hope Spain wins, but I could live with Holland being WC aswell.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 09:47   #333
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Btw, if you DID watch the game, you'd have noticed Spain did use the flanks alot more then in the previous games.

I did, and I do agree that a switch to a clear 4-5-1 to dominate the mid pitch was a very good one from Del Bosque. It isn't the first time I vote for Spain to add on flanks, and while Pedro isn't as technically talented as many in the Spain squad are, he makes up for it by rigorously working in both directions. He somehow reminds me of Park Ji Sung. I think succesfull modern football requires support in front in term of attacking full backs (e.g Maicon, Ramos, Johnson), but it needs to be backed up by midfielders covering more ground.

What comes to the game being really dull. It was a very tactical game, however, my personal preferences lean more towards finding fast paced, attacking football spiced with the occasional mistakes fun to watch. I'm not so much a fun of chess-like ball moving ad infinitum. This is just preference - and this is why I found say Germany - England a good game to view, and Ghana - Uruguay. In contrary to all Spain games so far, they provided with a bunch of pace and events. The extremely slow possession play (slow to the point where you're bound to have 8 men standing in the box before you even consider passing in) isn't so delightful for me, while it does seem to excel very well at grinding 1-0 wins. The super slow pace and extremely cautious play just kills it for me - I don't find watching building up balls from near the opposition box back down to keeper and back up again too entertaining.

I don't hate the playstyle because I'd dislike it for no particular reason. My disapproval of it has to do with the kind of games it results in - and has resulted in this world cup. Predominantly extremely slow paced, low goal, low chance, low mistake type of football. Mourinho is partially to blame for building up (a very succesful) counter tactic for the Spanish control ball, but this is what we're going to be seeing from now on.

I understand some people fancy it due to the technical quality of short passes, touches, and controlling the ball, but there's only so many short passes I'm keen on watching when the flair of a Messi doesn't provoke the great sparks to break the silence in the offensive side.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 10:08   #334
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
I did, and I do agree that a switch to a clear 4-5-1 to dominate the mid pitch was a very good one from Del Bosque. It isn't the first time I vote for Spain to add on flanks, and while Pedro isn't as technically talented as many in the Spain squad are, he makes up for it by rigorously working in both directions. He somehow reminds me of Park Ji Sung. I think succesfull modern football requires support in front in term of attacking full backs (e.g Maicon, Ramos, Johnson), but it needs to be backed up by midfielders covering more ground.

What comes to the game being really dull. It was a very tactical game, however, my personal preferences lean more towards finding fast paced, attacking football spiced with the occasional mistakes fun to watch. I'm not so much a fun of chess-like ball moving ad infinitum. This is just preference - and this is why I found say Germany - England a good game to view, and Ghana - Uruguay. In contrary to all Spain games so far, they provided with a bunch of pace and events. The extremely slow possession play (slow to the point where you're bound to have 8 men standing in the box before you even consider passing in) isn't so delightful for me, while it does seem to excel very well at grinding 1-0 wins. The super slow pace and extremely cautious play just kills it for me - I don't find watching building up balls from near the opposition box back down to keeper and back up again too entertaining.

I don't hate the playstyle because I'd dislike it for no particular reason. My disapproval of it has to do with the kind of games it results in - and has resulted in this world cup. Predominantly extremely slow paced, low goal, low chance, low mistake type of football. Mourinho is partially to blame for building up (a very succesful) counter tactic for the Spanish control ball, but this is what we're going to be seeing from now on.

I understand some people fancy it due to the technical quality of short passes, touches, and controlling the ball, but there's only so many short passes I'm keen on watching when the flair of a Messi doesn't provoke the great sparks to break the silence in the offensive side.
In all fairness, I think Iniesta played a better WC then Messi. He plays a similar role as Messi does for Argentina.

What I do like about Spanish style is that even if there are 3 opponents around the player with the ball, they can always find some player to pass it to. Very rarely will you see someone shooting the ball away in a panick reaction. Even in defense, Spain still passes rather then shooting the ball away.

I did especially enjoy watching Pedro. He's more a fast paced winger and he managed to beat his guy several times. Combine that with a Torres in form and you'd have more goals.

The thing is, this playing style often creates alot more goals, as we managed to see in the qualifying games of Spain. Strangly enough, that hasn't been the case this WC.

Another thing is that EVERY opponent that played Spain on this WC played rather defensive and cautious. With the exception of Paraguay perhaps. Attacking against Spain is lethal if you do not convert your chances, as shown in the Paraguay game

And it seems only Swiss managed a clean sheet against Spain.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 10:52   #335
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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What I do like about Spanish style is that even if there are 3 opponents around the player with the ball, they can always find some player to pass it to.
I think the problem here is sometimes it tends to happen too often - I can't remember the specific situation's time, but in the Germany game Xavi was sometimes in possession in front of the box, and rather than challenging a defender and going for a shot (what you often see Messi doing for Barca) he'd just rather pass the ball back or down the flank.

Quote:
I did especially enjoy watching Pedro. He's more a fast paced winger and he managed to beat his guy several times.
This is also why I like Pedro - he's slightly un'spanish in the way that he challenges, and he goes more directly towards goalscoring opportunities - instead of dwelling with the ball midfield, or passing it back around Xavi/Xabi Alonso axis, he can either challenge a defender and try get past, or come up with an inspirational direct pass (like the 20 yard pass he put to box for Villa in the early minutes of the game).

Quote:
The thing is, this playing style often creates alot more goals, as we managed to see in the qualifying games of Spain. Strangly enough, that hasn't been the case this WC.
This has to do with the metagame. I don't think that, during the qualifications, many teams had fully adapted to the idea of the current Spain and Barcelona playstyle. Arguably, Mourinho's contribution in terms of the 4-2-3-1 type of a formation (which Germany also fielded; back four, Khedira Schweinsteiger in middle, Özil as treaquerista, Podolski and Trochowski on flanks, Klose as a striker) and the defensive approaches against the midfield dominance game is responsible for part of the stagnation.

But it's difficult to "blame" it on other teams - it's been found an effective way of performing well or even defeating teams like Barcelona and Spain that like to hold the ball and through virtue of stronger individual talent are able to do so. In qualifications, also, teams tend to play more for points less for secure: as a lesser team against Spain in a qualifying group, you're set off against a loss: even a draw can have lesser impact to your staging, but a surprise win would be great. Thus, teams go on more offensive approach. This rarely results in surprises (when it does it's great profits though), and often results in crumbling because of Spain's superiority on the skill department.

In world cups, the amount of games contributing is so much lesser that every result counts, thus teams adopt more defensive, more "certain" approaches (the Mourinho method). You might argue, that, if Spain and Barcelona didn't play the kind of midfield possession game they do, with the intent of basically passing the ball into the box with slow, short build ups, the optimal solution would not be the Internazionale-Swizerland run of blocking passes in front of the box causing the game to become a stagnant scheme of Spain/Barca building very slow passes very slowly in midfield.

If you want to stagnate Spain's current playstyle, you don't go aggressively on their players who have the ball. You simply work hard to prevent their passing options, look them pass the ball back to defenders and try find another breach, block that. When you get the ball, you try shatter them with fast, direct counter attacks.


Quote:
Another thing is that EVERY opponent that played Spain on this WC played rather defensive and cautious. With the exception of Paraguay perhaps. Attacking against Spain is lethal if you do not convert your chances, as shown in the Paraguay game
I'm not sure what was wrong with Germany - they were very lacklustre. The way I'd perceive it Del Bosque took the game with a good choice of enforcing the midfield at the cost of a striker. For the first time in this tournament, due to Pedro, Spain had genuine options down the flanks beyond just Ramos driving on the right hand side. However, I didn't find the game extremely pleasing to watch. It was in fact quite boring at parts, and you can't really claim that Spain'd been creating much dangerous chances, or even less, being lethal in them. A set piece goal anyways.

To his credit, Casillas was really strong collecting crosses and intercepting in the box, his presense will have impacted Germany's chances of connecting crosses.

Quote:
And it seems only Swiss managed a clean sheet against Spain.
And on the same hand one could argue that Spain has managed to score more than twice against only one team. Xabi Alonso firing 3-4 shots wide from 25 each game isn't really contributing to the lethal attack.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 11:09   #336
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Well, not every player has a shot like Messi aye. Spanish players generally don't have much power in their shot. The exception being Xabi Alonso. And his shot is often quite decent.

You also see a very clear clear distinction between the Bercelona players and the Real players in the Spanish squad, with the exception of Pedro. Because Ramos plays rather similar as Pedro and often also challenges his defender.

Football had evolved to a stadium where the playingstyle becomes less and less important. 5 years ago, everyone screamed about the typical catenatio from Italy. Nowadays, less pple do and only the result matters.

Mourinho is a prime example of such "new coach". As is Van Marwijk of Holland. They play alot less creative as before, but they deliver results.

Same with Dunga. The exception here being Löw, who did quite the opposite with Germany.

Casillas did play a good game. He wasn't always so secure in the past games (I still think he's the best keeper in the world).
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 11:43   #337
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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The exception being Xabi Alonso. And his shot is often quite decent.
I disagree. His shot at least in this year's tournament has been terrible: more of his shots have found their way off target, and none of them has hit the net.

Diego Forlan has a good shot. Podolski has a decent shot. Xabi Alonso has an off-target shot.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 11:48   #338
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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I disagree. His shot at least in this year's tournament has been terrible: more of his shots have found their way off target, and none of them has hit the net.

Diego Forlan has a good shot. Podolski has a decent shot. Xabi Alonso has an off-target shot.
Dabi Alonse stroke the goal from 40 meters distance against Swiss, sadly the sidebar prevented the goal.

I'm talking in general. Most of his goals occur from a shot from the 2nd line.
Also, don't compare the shot of a striker with that of a midfielder aye.

A striker with a poor shot is a poor striker by definition imo. A midfielder has more use in having a great pass, a great crossing, great heading etc.

Also, none of Messi's shots hit the net, doesn't mean he has a bad shot aye.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 12:03   #339
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Dabi Alonse stroke the goal from 40 meters distance against Swiss, sadly the sidebar prevented the goal.
Sidebar's as good as a shot wide. I stand by my argument. I'll quote myself and underpin it some more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
His shot at least in this year's tournament has been terrible.
Statistics wizard agrees. Xabi Alonso has fired more shots off the target than on the target in World Cup 2010. He's also scored none. I guess a definition of a good shot is a matter of flavour again, perhaps the fanboi factor might contribute. For me, if a player shoots more off target than on target, and fails to contribute goals, it's not a very good sign. I can recall at least two, if not three blatant 20-25 yard drives by Alonso missing the target by a yard or more against Germany. If you want to compare it to Leo Messi, sure, he didn't score. But at least the vast majority of his shots were on target. The majority of Xabi Alonso's shots haven't even been on.

Aye aye.

For me, a decent shot is one that is often on the target. For some people, a decent shot is a Spanish shot. Aye aye.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 12:14   #340
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Lol, no need to become sarcastic. I do agree his shooting has been bad during this WC. I'm just saying that he usually has a good shot, as he proved last season with Real Madrid. Proof of this is that pple do give him the ball to perform such a shot, something they never do for Busquets or Xavi for instance.

On a sidenote, I rather have a person shooting 10 times, of which 9 are off target and 1 is goal then a person shooting 10 times, all on target but no goals.

A good example of that last statement is Ronaldo. He is the least efficient striker in the Primera Division 2010 because the ratio of shots and goals is quite low.

Yet he score 27 goals in the Spanish league alone.

You do need players in your team that dare shooting at the goal. Xabi Alonso is the only one in Spain attempting that, bar a few exceptions ofcourse.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 12:24   #341
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

Xabi does not have a good shot. Messi, Forlan, Robben etc. have good shots. Xabi just hits it as hard as he can and hopes for the best.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 12:29   #342
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Xabi does not have a good shot. Messi, Forlan, Robben etc. have good shots. Xabi just hits it as hard as he can and hopes for the best.
Ok, I guess you've seen 90% of all Madrid games last season, like I did?
Yes, his shot sucked at WC, that I agree with.

And again, stop comparing him with strikers. First of all, those strikers have a complete different type of shot. They create the action and then shoot towards the goal. Or they take a free kick, in which case it's often more the positioning of the ball that matters.

Xabi Alonso doesn't create the game. He moves up at a corner and shoots the ball in one time when it comes his way or when it's passed his way. That's completely different then when you create the action and you decide yourself where you put the ball right before hitting it.

Ofcourse his shot is nowhere near the standards of Messi. If it was, he'd be the absolute worldstar because he has alot of other qualities.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 12:43   #343
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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something they never do for Busquets or Xavi for instance.
Because Xavi will rather commit suicide with a rusty teaspoon than collect himself and shoot. Put him on the 16 yards with a ball and space and he'll find someone to pass to.

For your pleasure, let's see how good Xabi Alonso's shot has actually been. Proved to be good in Real Madrid, obviously. These are season 2009/2010 statistics, in courtesy of ESPN soccernet.

In Real Madrid, Primera League, Cristiano Ronaldo shot 211 (94 on target) times, scoring 26 goals. This puts him at 44,5% shots on target, and of total 211 shots, 12,3% yielded a goal.

In Real Madrid, Primera League, Xabi Alonso was more accurate. Sorry, that was a bad joke. He shot 42 times (11 on target), scoring 3 goals. 26,2% of his attempts were on goal. 7,1% of his attempts yielded a goal.

In Barcelona, Primera League, Lionel Messi attempted 163 times (86 on goal). His attempts found the net 34 times. This puts him at 52,8% rate on target, and 20,8% rate on goals.

In Athletic Bilbao, Primera League, Javier Martinez had 54 shots (20 on goal). He scored 6 times. This puts him at at 37% on target rate, and a conversion rate of 11%.

In Athletic Bilbao, Primera League, Fernando Llorente had 115 shots (50 on goal), and scored 14 times. This puts him at 43,5% target rate, and a conversion rate from shots to goal of 12,2%.

In Arsenal, Premier Division, Cesc Fabregas attempted 86 times (32 on target). He found the net 15 times. His on target rate is is 37,2% and scoring rate on shots 17,4%.


Of these players, Lionel Messi has the highest goals per shots rate. Cesc Fabregas comes second. Cristiano Ronaldo takes third. Fernando Llorente is fourth. Javier Martinez is fifth. Xabi Alonso is last.

Xabi Alonso has, in Real Madrid, shown that he is very dangerous.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kjel
Ok, I guess you've seen 90% of all Madrid games last season, like I did?
Can you elaborate, just why? Because he shoots wide and scores rarely? *edit* Of course, these are "shots", so they include headers and such which may be more essential for strikers, but if you compare Xabi Alonso to his peers, Javier Martinez and Cesc Fabregas, midfielders that "like to shoot". Uh. He's lethal.

Last edited by Tietäjä; 8 Jul 2010 at 12:51.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 12:57   #344
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Kjeldoran View Post
You do need players in your team that dare shooting at the goal. Xabi Alonso is the only one in Spain attempting that, bar a few exceptions ofcourse.
No, really. As a team, Spain's fired 44 on target and 45 off target, for a grand total of 89 shots. They're just going Xabi Alonso on their shots. To compare, Germany has put 48 shots on target and 28 off, totaling 76 shots. Netherlands have 45 on target, 29 off target, to sum up to 74. Uruguay has 43 on goal, 32 off target, for 75 total.

Netherlands have scored 12 times, Spain has scored 7, and German 13. Uruguay 9.

This implies a few things: first, the way Spain plays the game contributes to their amount of shots. They control the ball a lot, which allows them to fire more shots. However, due to the very, extremely slow pace of the game, which means teams always have time to drop deep before Spain decides to go for a goal, a lot of their shots are probably from range, and from difficult situations. This is shown in the relatively high number of shots off target, and the relatively low number of goals scored. Spain is just utterly failing to score. This isn't news.

*edit* added Uruguay to represent full top4.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 13:07   #345
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
Can you elaborate, just why? Because he shoots wide and scores rarely? *edit* Of course, these are "shots", so they include headers and such which may be more essential for strikers, but if you compare Xabi Alonso to his peers, Javier Martinez and Cesc Fabregas, midfielders that "like to shoot". Uh. He's lethal.
Comparing Xabi Alonso with Fabregas is like comparing Casillas with Messi. Seriously, Fabregas is everything Xabi Alonso is not, and vica versa.

Fabregas is an ATTACKING Midfielder, he can even be positioned as 2nd striker. Xabi Alonso is a controling midfielder, his mail job is ball recovery, passing, crossing and shooting from the 2nd line.

So you took all strikers and then Xabi Alonso and then you concluded he ended last. Perhaps you should have included Casillas aswell, he'd have lost it for sure ...

The only comparison that makes sence is with Martinez. I also didn't claim Xabi to be the best shooting midfielder aye.

Xabi Alonso could be compared with Makelele, Lassano Diarra, Van Bommel. Some teams like England don't even play with a Xabi-type of player as both Gerrard as Lampard are offensive midfielders.

If he's that horrific, why does allmost every ball from the 2nd line go to him? If I were a striker and I can't shoot and I know Xabi sucked, wouldn't I attempt to shoot regardless mmm?

Nway, Statistics are just that, numbers. Statistics say Messi played a bad WC. He however did not, he was just extremely unlucky with his finishing.

We could argue about this all day long, which is no problem for me. Perhaps I'm biassed. But I guess we all are at some point.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 13:17   #346
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Kjeldoran View Post
The only comparison that makes sence is with Martinez. I also didn't claim Xabi to be the best shooting midfielder aye.
And also the comparison that elaborates how dramatically better Javier Martinez is not only at putting things on goal but also finding the net.


Quote:
If he's that horrific, why does allmost every ball from the 2nd line go to him? If I were a striker and I can't shoot and I know Xabi sucked, wouldn't I attempt to shoot regardless mmm?
Because of how Spain plays. Iniesta and Xavi are both really, really shy shooting. Spain builds up game really slow, which means, that typically, by the time they're near the box, their striker(s) are marked tight. Fast attacks for Spain are really rare. This means, that you either have to play it down the flanks and cross (typically only Ramos has played the flank), or play it back on the box and shoot.

In all honesty, though, of Spain's 89 shots, 12 have been Xabi Alonso's. 8 are Iniesta's. 23 are David Villa's. 8 are Sergio Ramos'. It comes to me, having watched them play, and reading the statistics, down really difficult to understand where you get your arguments from - if we've even watched the same games.


Quote:
Perhaps I'm biassed.
The problem is that arguing with someone who is so hugely biased that he is prepared to refuse any and all (including objective) evidence based on his anecdotal views gets pretty boring at some point.

Quote:
Comparing Xabi Alonso with Fabregas is like comparing Casillas with Messi.
See like this. You create absolutely obnoxious hyperboles just because facts created by your imagination can't stand daylight, and then you go aggressive and outright retarded because you simply can't stand the argument that Xabi Alonso mostly just shoots hard, with less of an interest in where the shot goes.

Quote:
his mail job is... shooting from the 2nd line.
Incidentally, shooting from the 2nd line is NOT where Fabregas scores most his goals from? Incidentally, Fabregas himself calls Guardiola the player he is trying to be like.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 13:22   #347
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
Spain is just utterly failing to score. This isn't news.
You are so right here ...

England 34
Spain 28
Germany 26
Bosnia 25
Slovakia 22
Serbia 22
Ukraine 21
Greece 20
Israel 20
Poland 19

That's the top 10 of scored goals during the WC qualifying, all these teams played 10 matched.

You're correct. Nearly 3 goals per game and only beaten by England on number of goals proved Spain has been known for their scoring issues.

Also their 6-0 victory against Poland right before the WC is a clear example of how poor Spain is when it comes to scoring
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 13:24   #348
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Kjeldoran View Post
You're correct. Nearly 3 goals per game and only beaten by England on number of goals proved Spain has been known for their scoring issues.
So why has Spain only scored 7 in the world cup so far? The England you mention flew out of the world cup for the very reason of failing to put goals into the net. This issue does not seem to bother say Netherlands. (edit. Bosnia). I find it hilarious how you now found world cup qualifyings to back up a team's world cup record. What next? 1978 WC?

Edit again. Oh wait, yes, I see, they've been unlucky. You don't need to post this, I've heard the unlucky argument.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 13:31   #349
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
In all honesty, though, of Spain's 89 shots, 12 have been Xabi Alonso's. 8 are Iniesta's. 23 are David Villa's. 8 are Sergio Ramos'. It comes to me, having watched them play, and reading the statistics, down really difficult to understand where you get your arguments from - if we've even watched the same games.
Villa is a striker, normal that he shoots twice asmuch on the goal.

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
The problem is that arguing with someone who is so hugely biased that he is prepared to refuse any and all (including objective) evidence based on his anecdotal views gets pretty boring at some point.
I don't believe I am. You however believe I am, guess there is little more to argue then mmm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
See like this. You create absolutely obnoxious hyperboles just because facts created by your imagination can't stand daylight, and then you go aggressive and outright retarded because you simply can't stand the argument that Xabi Alonso mostly just shoots hard, with less of an interest in where the shot goes.
Yes, the comparison was utterly rediculous, trying to indicate how rediculous your initial comparison between Fabregas and Xabi Alonso was.

I'm the one imagining things? Didn't you claim Spain has a scoring issue? Perhaps you should check the fact yourself before making such rediculous statements.

But hey, cudo's for trying to play it personal, on the man. not the first time you've attempted that in this thread. Shame really.
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Unread 8 Jul 2010, 13:35   #350
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Re: World Cup Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Tietäjä View Post
So why has Spain only scored 7 in the world cup so far? The England you mention flew out of the world cup for the very reason of failing to put goals into the net. This issue does not seem to bother say Netherlands. (edit. Bosnia). I find it hilarious how you now found world cup qualifyings to back up a team's world cup record. What next? 1978 WC?

Edit again. Oh wait, yes, I see, they've been unlucky. You don't need to post this, I've heard the unlucky argument.
I merely proved you wrong.

You said: Spain has a scoring issue
I replied: Spain scored 28 goals in 10 games, avg of 2.8 goals a match. Only England scored more goals during the qualifying stages.

Should I bring the statistcs of Euro 2008 aswell? those will also show that Spain doesn't have a scoring issue.

This WC they fail to score, but that's however not what you initially claimed. You claimed Spain had a scoring issue which everyone was already aware of, indicating it's been an issue for quite some time now.

Also, their scoring issue did bring them to the final ... wait, what?
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