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Unread 13 Apr 2007, 02:58   #1
Dace
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[Horse Racing] The Grand National

"Nobody has ever bet enough on a winning horse."



It's that time of year again. The time of year the majority take great delight in losing money at a sport in which animals regularly get crippled or killed.

Yes it's the Grand National.



The Horses

BALLYCASSIDY (IRE)
BEWLEYS BERRY (IRE)
BILLYVODDAN (IRE)
BOTHAR NA (IRE)
CELTIC SON (FR)
CLAN ROYAL (FR)
CLOUDY BAYS (IRE)
DUN DOIRE (IRE)
EUROTREK (IRE)
GALLANT APPROACH (IRE)
GRAPHIC APPROACH (IRE)
HEDGEHUNTER (IRE)
HOMER WELLS (IRE)
IDLE TALK (IRE)
JACK HIGH (IRE)
JOES EDGE (IRE)
KANDJAR D'ALLIER (FR)
KELAMI (FR)
KNOWHERE (IRE)
L'AMI (FR)
LE DUC (FR)
LIBERTHINE (FR)
LIVINGSTONEBRAMBLE (IRE)
LONGSHANKS
MCKELVEY
MONKERHOSTIN (FR)
NAUNTON BROOK
NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (IRE)
PHILSON RUN (IRE)
POINT BARROW (IRE)
PUNTAL (FR)
ROYAL AUCLAIR (FR)
SILVER BIRCH (IRE)
SIMON
SLIM PICKINGS (IRE)
SONEVAFUSHI (FR)
THE OUTLIER (IRE)
THISTHATANDTOTHER (IRE)
TIKRAM
ZABENZ (NZ)

You can find a random review of the horses here.



My Picks

This is how i arrived at my picks. I will say "If you like money i suggest you follow them" so i can be suitably laughed at when they all fail to finish. I'm a giver not a taker after all. Anyways ...

2 or 3 years ago i read an article in NewScientist about the Grand National. Some statiticians had gone over past results and figured out what was important in how to pick winners. What was important boils down to one thing:

"Horses who do well in the Grand National have run it, AND COMPLETED IT, before."

Apparantly the Grand National is a bastard of a race with mile high fences. These fences throw horses who have not experienced them before.

Anyways the article suggested three tips to be bet on each way. I duly did so. 3 horses bet on. 1 came first. 1 came fourth. I bet £15 and got back £130 (plus my stake where applicable).

I just put on a random bet last year and rued it when my friend who followed the advice i gave him, which is the advice i'm giving you, backed a horse who had previously completed the race and won a fair amount of money.

Anyways looking through the list the following horses have been picked out. I've left my comments, based on the guides ive read (see link above), in after their names so you can form very slightly more informed judgements.

Hedgehunter – won & second
Numbersixvalverde – won
Royal Auclair – 2nd
Ballycassidy – fell at the 25th (of 30) when leading last year
Clan Royal – 2nd & 3rd but too old now and poor form this year???
Dum Dorie – Has run before but has he completed it??? (doesn’t like firm – hot weather this weekend)
Joes Edge – finished 7th likes good ground (which he’ll probably get) and 8ilbs lighter this year

Now you can see Ballycassidy hasn't actually completed the course but he was almost there so i felt he was a horse worth bearing in mind. I couldn't be arsed finding out any more about Dum Dorie *shrug*. Joes Edge looks good from what i've read about him and that good reading appears to be reflected in his odds (which is rather upsetting).

Anyways with this information to hand, and following my system i decided to bet on:

- Joe's Edge
- Numbersixvalverde
- Hedgehunter
- Royal Auclair

I gave myself 4 bets cause i always bet each way on the grand national. Who knows all four could romp home in placed positions (this is me holding my breath).

Clan Royal and Ballycassidy i also felt may be worth a piss about covering bet.



Betting

For my horses the odds in the high street bookies as of today seem to be

Joe's Edge - 9/1 (maybe 8/1)
Numbersixvalverde - 12/1
Hedgehunter - 14/1
Royal Auclair - 33/1

Clan Royal - 25/1
Ballycassidy - 50/1



You can get up to date online odds from

PaddyPower
Introductory offer = Place a £30 bet and get 3 x £10 bets over 3 weeks PLUS top 5 pays each way for everybody for the Grand National!!!

Coral
Introductory offer = Deposit £40 (in one go) & bet (spread over as many bets as you want) & you get a free £10 bet

Betfair
Introductory Offer = Bet £25 (spread over as many bets as you want but within 14 days of registering & get a free £25 bet within 24 hours of your bets being settled)

totesport
Introductory offer = Initial bet of between £5 & £50 matched

Ladbrokes
(sorry can't get a direct link & no introductory offer)



Paddypower looks the best so i've opened and account and gone with them.

The odds i got, the amount i staked and the potential pay out are

Joe's Edge - 9/1, £5 E-W, (Placed - £16.25, Win - £66.25)
Numbersixvalverde - 14/1, £5 E-W (Placed - £22.50, Win - £97.50)
Hedgehunter - 14/1, £5 E-W (Placed - £22.50, Win - £97.50)
Royal Auclair - 40/1, £15 E-W (Placed - £150, Win - £780)
Clan Royal - 25/1, £2 E-W (Placed - £14.50, Win - £66.50)
Ballycassidy - 50/1, £2 E-W (Placed - £27, Win - £129)

Because i bet £30 in the one bet (on Royal Auclair) i got a free £10 bet (which i used on Numbersixvalverde).

Total cost of bets = £58
Maximum Potential Payout = £868.25

This compares to a potential win of £491.25 (a difference of £377) if i'd used the high street bookies. This way i also get another 2 x £10 bets (which i'm gonna fire onto the surest things i can find in the next two weeks). Admittidly i wouldn't have placed 6 bets if i was betting on a 4 placed race but as i wasn't ...



And You???

So that's me, my picks, my bets and my reasoning. What are you guys going for?
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Unread 13 Apr 2007, 08:51   #2
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

At work .. they cut out the names .. paste them on paper, you pay £1 .. take a lucky dip... you win half of the collection, the other half goes to cancer research.

Thats my only bet on the Grand National every year.
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Unread 13 Apr 2007, 10:11   #3
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

i don't watch horseracing.
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Unread 13 Apr 2007, 10:59   #4
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

I'm currently deliberating.

Usually this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/othe...ng/6545069.stm

and

this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/othe...ng/6538701.stm

Are my guides of choice, I generally pick a horse that is reasonably well backed at the bookies, well rated on the guide and not really that well backed by the pundits.

Given that it will be hot and firm your information about Dun Doire is pretty valuable, as one doubts he will go the distance. I was going to back him but not now.

Although the weights are against him, Hedgehunter is a formidable horse and pretty much the safest e/w bet there is. I've been trying to persuade myself to go numbersixvalverde but 2 in a row seems to be a big ask and he might be worth a sneaky each wayer, simply because he's also a pretty good horse. I think you're very wise to go e/w on Clan Royal at 25-1 cos of his great record.

My each way of choice at the moment is Liberthine. The horse/jockey combination seem to like aintree, with the jockey having a 3/5 record on the course. I think it's a nice little sneaky one. Jack High is another worth considering; has come second and has a whole stone on valverde in the handicap.

P.S.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/....html?t=413747
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 00:08   #5
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

I know sweet **** all about horse racing but generally chuck a tenner on something each year. This thread though motivated me to finally phone up Ladbrokes and find out what my password was so I have just chucked the rest of that account on something.


Single Joes Edge
1 line x 2 at 5.00 per line (e/w)
Total stake for this bet: 10.00
Potential Return: 66.25

Single Hedgehunter
1 line x 2 at 5.00 per line (e/w)
Total stake for this bet: 10.00
Potential Return: 85.00


Single Royal Auclair
1 line x 2 at 5.00 per line (e/w)
Total stake for this bet: 10.00
Potential Return: 260.00

There wasn't even a hopeless outsider with a stupid name for me to waste my money on this year :/
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 09:23   #6
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

Monkerhostin at 25-1 as picked by Lucky the budgie on BBC Breakfast this morning.
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 11:43   #7
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

I want to say I followed Dace's advice and put £5 on each of his 4 recommendations at e/w. If none of them come up trumps I'm going to hunt you down, Rankin!
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 13:53   #8
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dace
[b][i]This way i also get another 2 x 10 bets (which i'm gonna fire onto the surest things i can find in the next two weeks). Admittidly i wouldn't have placed 6 bets if i was betting on a 4 placed race but as i wasn't ...
Just to warn you before you get a horrible shock; with Free bets you DONT get your stake back. so if you lump the 10 bet on a sure shot at 1/10 you win one pound.
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 14:04   #9
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

Count the pennies, and the pounds count themselves!
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 14:12   #10
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomkat
I want to say I followed Dace's advice and put 5 on each of his 4 recommendations at e/w. If none of them come up trumps I'm going to hunt you down, Rankin!
I did the same, plus a fiver on Clan Royal ew
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 14:47   #11
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

Following my parents being anti gambling in any sense, I got a SkyBet account and put a whole £5 on to it:

0.90p on Point Barrow @ 9/1 - £12.59 returns
0.90p on Hedgehunter @ 10/1 - £13.77 returns
0.90p on Idle Talk @ 16/1 - £20.90 returns
0.90p on L'Ami @ 18/1 - £23.38 returns
0.90p on Clan Royal @ 33/1 - £41.09 returns

So I had 50p left, so I decided to put 45p on Man Utd winning, and I can win a FANTASTIC 57p ;-)
[at this point your asking why 90p, 90 is my lucky number]
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 15:04   #12
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

no, at that point surely you only have £0.05p left?
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 16:36   #13
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

Cheers Dace.
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 21:34   #14
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

If science cant even predict the winner of a horse race then no wonder it cant explain irreducible complexity
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Unread 14 Apr 2007, 22:07   #15
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

i still wonder why they put such things as 'favourites' in the national
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Unread 15 Apr 2007, 01:36   #16
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

put £5 on ballycasside e/w and £5 on point barrw to win!

What a ****in waste :/
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Unread 16 Apr 2007, 15:41   #17
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

Oh dear. If it's any consolation to those who followed my tips i decided to pretty much double up my bets after i posted this thread so i lost £108 all in all.

DAMN SCIENCE!!!
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Unread 16 Apr 2007, 15:56   #18
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

oh dace what would my morale and self-esteem be with you
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Unread 16 Apr 2007, 15:59   #19
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

Quote:
Originally Posted by jerome
oh dace what would my morale and self-esteem be with you


With me? Whatever it is right now i guess.
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Unread 16 Apr 2007, 16:25   #20
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Re: [Horse Racing] The Grand National

clownshoe 2007.
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