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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 16:28   #1
acropolis
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654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

I couldn't find a thread discussing this recent paper, and was interested in other opinions.

Specifically opinions that don't suck. Such as the opinion of the American right, where
A) It's not true because it's a large number
B) It's not true because you can't extrapolate a survey of a relatively small population to a large population
etc.

or the American left where
A) It's a large number and therefore true
B) It also contained a pie chart

or the American media
A) It doesn't matter because Iraqis aren't people anyway

My opinion, which you may freely claim to suck, is that the data set used seems to be worthwhile and in order, the general logical premise seems to be fine, and the writing and paper seem to be pretty shoddy.

"654,965 iraqis killed by the conflict, 601,027 by violence." Really? Is there any possibility of error in that calculation that you would like to mention before page 12? No? Can't wait to see their election survey where Bush's performance is approved of by 39.8445% of americans. Or possibly, by 42,355,812 registered voters.

Care to comment on the difficulty of getting a proper random sample set in a country with a large tribal population? No?

Care to comment on the fact that your paper finds an order of magnitude more deaths than other reports on the same topic? No? K. Care to at least acknowledge the existence of said? No? K.

But an obvious mistake that would lead them to being off by the order of magnitude 'generally assumed' isn't clear to me. Thoughts?
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 16:44   #2
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

I'm not really up to date with Sudan but I believe this is the same process used to create the numbers for the current crisis which isn't being disputed. I don't know much about the country but I can't really see it being that far ahead of Iraq (in Western terms) so I would imagine at least some similar problems in some respects.

If this is true then this is just another example of the nature of using intelligence to find what ou want, rather than what is there. Until this is resolved this retarded shit will continue.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 17:33   #3
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

When you look at the study and see that over 50% of the deaths are attributed to "unknown causes" - its understandable to see that some people dismiss it outright.

Not that this discredits the study, but it certainly contributes to public skepticism.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 17:48   #4
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barrow|Pony
When you look at the study and see that over 50% of the deaths are attributed to "unknown causes" - its understandable to see that some people dismiss it outright.
that would be an interesting point if it were true.

but in fact, close to 0% of the deaths are attributed to "unknown causes".

focusing on the "violent deaths", which made up 92% of the death increase,

56% were due to gunfire,
13% car bombs,
14% other explosions,
13% air strikes,
2% accidents,
and 2% unknown causes of violent death.

i'm guessing that what you are referring to is the 45% unknown sources, but the argument that, after your husband's body is found in the street full of bullet holes, unless you know who shot him, he might not be dead makes no sense whatever.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 18:04   #5
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

So if things carry on that way and the population of Iraq is 25 million with 600,000 having been killed in 3 years that means that if we "stay the course" for another 40 years we'll win outright. If 2809 US soldiers have been killed so far then America will only have to lose 112360 soldiers to get it's hands on proven oil reserves of 200 billion barrels, at todays prices ($70 ?) worth $14 trillion which is ~$120 million per causality. A powerful case in support of Bush's master stroke, I know who'd be getting my vote.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 18:10   #6
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hicks
So if things carry on that way and the population of Iraq is 25 million with 600,000 having been killed in 3 years that means that if we "stay the course" for another 40 years we'll win outright. If 2809 US soldiers have been killed so far then America will only have to lose 112360 soldiers to get it's hands on proven oil reserves of 200 billion barrels, at todays prices ($70 ?) worth $14 trillion which is ~$120 million per causality. A powerful case in support of Bush's master stroke, I know who'd be getting my vote.
a good thought, but math is off and other information needs to be noted.

first, 600,000 over 3.5 years = ~170,000 per years. which would take close to 150 years...

except that another number in the paper (which is stated without comment) makes it clear that iraqi women have been incredibly fertile since the arrival of our GIs.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 18:14   #7
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Oops you're right I took it as 600,000 over a year Still it's hard to factor in things like efficiency gains, I mean once this has been going on 10 or so years we're bound to get better at it and the kill rate will shoot up. Also once we hit a certain threshold they may lose the will to fight lowering our own casualties. All the same even if it does take 3 times as long with 3 times our casualties that still means $40 million per soldier ! I hope the number crunchers at the Pentagon are noting all this before any more ridiculous suggestions of an early withdrawal.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 18:32   #8
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Exclamation Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

It wasn't just the right who criticized this study. Iraq Body Count had some serious questions about it as well (I think IBCs numbers are a bit suspect as well, but their methodology is much sounder and reasonably transparent). I won't bother repeating the criticisms they and others have made of the Lancet studies (read the full IBC report for starters; the above link starts with the summary).

I will also add that this is the second time the Lancet has released a study just prior to a US election which purports to show a much higher number of Iraqi casualties than anyone previously thought. Once might be a coincidence, but twice? Unfortunately, this creates an appearance (at the very least) of a political agenda and I think scientists with political agendas invite and deserve additional skepticism on that basis alone.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 18:41   #9
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

The death toll doesnt really matter. If the invasion was unjustified then 1 dead person is too many, and if it was justified then pretty much any number is acceptable as long as reasonable attempts were made to minimise the losses. Contextless complaints about the number of causalties is just emotionalism; Hiroshima killed over 100K people and that was cool with me.

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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 19:14   #10
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

with saddam, things went much better.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 19:24   #11
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

You could look at the bright side;

now 150.000 iraqis can have 4 wives again
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 19:43   #12
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by KoeN
with saddam, things went much better.
um...yes?
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 20:26   #13
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
The death toll doesnt really matter. If the invasion was unjustified then 1 dead person is too many, and if it was justified then pretty much any number is acceptable.
That's not true unless you consider the type of justification given. If the justification we're accepting is that Iraq was a threat to the world then maybe it's immaterial how many Iraqi's die (although even then I'm not sure about that) but if the justification was to make life better for Iraqi's then of course it matters how many die.

Hiroshima is justified (or so they say) because the 100,000+ who died are balanced against the (potential) millions of lives which might have been lost if the war hadn't ended.

If we look at the Falklands War then perhaps the thousand lives that were lost were justified, given the circumstances. However, if the casualties had risen to (say) a million dead, I think it'd be pretty clear that the war wasn't "worth it" in any sense.

On the topic at hand though, I'm not sure why it matters. As with all wars and massacres the statistics will be manipulated by all sides. But many thousands have died and it's not clear what's been achieved in the long run. I'm sure most still cling to the beliefs they held before the invasion though, and that probably won't change.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 22:03   #14
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

The methodology used in this report and in the previous one has been and is used in other areas of research. Assuming you think the research itself was rigorous (ie the lancet isn't a comic book, which it isnt) then you're either

questioning the maths of the sampling (which would have serious implications for statisticians)

questioning the samples themselves (ie the iraqis questioned were bullshitting)

Personally i choose to 'believe' or 'accept' these reports above ones based on media reporting because they aren't ad-hoc. I'd be fine with another report using population sampling showing something completely different, but its a tad laughable to criticise a report assembled using maths tools with one based on media coverage from 'approved sources'. The criticism by the IBC isn't doing anything for me one way or the other, they say its absurd that hundreds of thousands of death certificates weren't registered by the central government, on the other hand since 92% of the people showed a death certificate it would suggest massive death certificate fraud for no apparent reason. And the report does give sources for media based sampling only accounting for ~20% of final casualties in the past.

I'd be fine if the two reports were to be disprooved, but it has to be with something that is statistically valid.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 22:20   #15
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

I really think we should be more concerned with the fact that deaths run into hundreds of thousands rather than specific estimates. Throwing stones at how the data was collected/processed is pretty much missing the point.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 22:30   #16
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
That's not true unless you consider the type of justification given. If the justification we're accepting is that Iraq was a threat to the world then maybe it's immaterial how many Iraqi's die (although even then I'm not sure about that) but if the justification was to make life better for Iraqi's then of course it matters how many die.

Hiroshima is justified (or so they say) because the 100,000+ who died are balanced against the (potential) millions of lives which might have been lost if the war hadn't ended.

If we look at the Falklands War then perhaps the thousand lives that were lost were justified, given the circumstances. However, if the casualties had risen to (say) a million dead, I think it'd be pretty clear that the war wasn't "worth it" in any sense.

On the topic at hand though, I'm not sure why it matters. As with all wars and massacres the statistics will be manipulated by all sides. But many thousands have died and it's not clear what's been achieved in the long run. I'm sure most still cling to the beliefs they held before the invasion though, and that probably won't change.

The issue now then surely is when too many casulties outweigh the long term benefits to the Iraqi people and security in the region, and if the presence of America and it's allies troops in Iraq are stabilising the situation or not.

Gen. Richard Dannatt in his interview last week suggested that 'our presence exacerbates security problems.' This proposes that the Iraqi forces would be better able to deal with security issues on their own, something that i would tend to disagree with.

The latest trouble in Amara, which the British handed control of back to the Iraqi's, would support the proposition that a withdrawal of troops is more likely to create more tension within the factions in Iraq than to ease the problem.

In relation to the idea of casulties then, the potencial further deaths caused by the occuping troops would have to be balanced against the possible deterioration of the situation should they withdraw. The underlying problems of the civil conflict therefore would be better off solving before withdrawels begin, depending on your view of the damage done by the occupiers presence.

Hope that makes sense and is passibly relevant.
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 22:51   #17
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

nuke the place and its gonna be over in a blink
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Unread 26 Oct 2006, 23:28   #18
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceadrath
The issue now then surely is when too many casulties outweigh the long term benefits to the Iraqi people and security in the region, and if the presence of America and it's allies troops in Iraq are stabilising the situation or not.
Has this ever been considered? In the beginning they didn't even want to keep count of 'collateral damage'. If stabalisation was a priority they wouldn't have gone there.

Quote:
The latest trouble in Amara, which the British handed control of back to the Iraqi's, would support the proposition that a withdrawal of troops is more likely to create more tension within the factions in Iraq than to ease the problem.
I think it has more to do with the Iraqi Army being an easier tactic as well as overtaking one of these areas has a great level of value as propaganda as well as the psychological effect it has on the troops who have to go back there.

Quote:
In relation to the idea of casulties then, the potencial further deaths caused by the occuping troops would have to be balanced against the possible deterioration of the situation should they withdraw. The underlying problems of the civil conflict therefore would be better off solving before withdrawels begin, depending on your view of the damage done by the occupiers presence.
If they leave there will be big problems as the Iraqi security force will not be able to cope. However, they have passed a point of no return (they did this as soon as they went in) in that whenever they leave the countr will be a mess. the main aim is now apparantly to train enough Iraqi troops so the US and UK can pull out and iraqis can kill Iraqis.

to think we could now solve these problems is laughable. there is little if any hope, trust or support for our troops and this will continue to deteriorate as people keep dying. We are the problem, we cannot be part of the solution. this scenario was not unforseen. It is why Saddam was not toppled after the first Gulf War. the US (under Bush Snr.) wanted (to paraphrase) 'a leader with an iron fist, who isn't Samm Hussein'. A lot of the problems we are seeing now have much deeper roots than three years ago and it is only the passing of time which can cool the situation to an acceptable level.
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Unread 27 Oct 2006, 00:55   #19
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

There is another prospective to view theese matters from. South Kurdistan is developing quickly and the growth has stunned most people in the neighbouring countries.

The funny thing about the entire situation is that the parts of Iraq under control by the Kurds is having an "easier" time dealing with the problems that came after the American invasion. The main reason for this is: That the american precense there is at most minimal.

There is a growing optimism in South Kurdistan, after the Baathregime got removed (Saddams forces) they feel that they can now entrust a better future. The violence that has riddled the country is gone. When Saddam fell Iraqi Kurdistan has more or less avoided the violence that has been bothering the rest of Iraq.

Why is this?
Kurds: When Saddam fell the kurds had allready established a civil administration with the support by an army and a policecore who had the trust of the PEOPLE. Because of this the Kurdic population has avoided the violence. Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) had agreed to merge the administration in Suleimaniyah and Arbil, this leading to the kurds to work more together.

There has been an growing industrial activity in South Kurdistan. Demolished villages has been rebuilt and connected with good roads. In Arbil there is an international Airport with travels both to europe and other big arabic cities. Also the airiport in Suleimaniyah accepts international travels. This is important for the Kurds so that they dont have to travel through Bagdad or the neighbouring hostile countries.

Culture is growing in a pace that the people around can only dream about. A 30ish number of tvchannels is being broadcast in kurdish and some of these by satelites so kurds living outside South Kurdistan can follow theese. There is hundreds of newspapers being published with very different political views.

Sadly there are some negative sides aswell ofc. The lack of an economical democracy is sad. In both zones (Around Arbil and Suleimaniyah) you need to have good connections to the party in power to get anything done or to start or run financial buisnesses its important to bribe bureocrats or party leaders.

There is also big disagreements in regards to the reconstructionwork. Alot of people claim that the partyleaders is more concerned about building airports and luxurious hotels than to secure the population nessecary means like water and electricity.

The economical intrests shows clearly in the regards towards the two mobile companies that operates in South-Kurdistan. The network Korek where the nephew of KDP strong leader Massound Barzani is the director has their mainbase in Arbil, while a company connected to the leading PUK-kadre runs the company Asiancell from their headquarters in Suleimaniyah. The relationships between thoose two companies are so poor that it is not possible to call subscribers from the other operator. The Kurds have some irony in it all when they point out that they can call New York or Peking, but cant call the neighbouring town.

Nobody however willing to say a bad word about the American invasion, which has led not only to formal self-rule, but also to a Kurdish nationalist, Jalal Talabani (LOOK AT HIS NAME), being installed as president of Iraq in Baghdad. Many kurds feel that the clauses on autonomy in the new Iraqi constitution are too weak. What they really want is an independent state.
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Unread 27 Oct 2006, 02:52   #20
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
It wasn't just the right who criticized this study. Iraq Body Count had some serious questions about it as well (I think IBCs numbers are a bit suspect as well, but their methodology is much sounder and reasonably transparent). I won't bother repeating the criticisms they and others have made of the Lancet studies (read the full IBC report for starters; the above link starts with the summary).
I did. Firstly they state that their own figure is highly likely to be significantly lower than the real number of deaths over this time period. Secondly lancet's 95% confidence figure is given at 426,000 violent deaths. Thirdly IBC's methodology is based on media sources, not statistical analysis. Perhaps another survey questioning people as regards the issues which IBC raised would be in order but random assertions of "it must be false, thinking otherwise is just outrageous!" aren't really helping anyone.

Quote:
I will also add that this is the second time the Lancet has released a study just prior to a US election which purports to show a much higher number of Iraqi casualties than anyone previously thought. Once might be a coincidence, but twice? Unfortunately, this creates an appearance (at the very least) of a political agenda and I think scientists with political agendas invite and deserve additional skepticism on that basis alone.
This is an utterly bizzare point. Additional skepticism as regards what? Do you think they falsified the data? Stick to actual criticisms.
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Unread 27 Oct 2006, 20:10   #21
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by All Systems Go
Has this ever been considered? In the beginning they didn't even want to keep count of 'collateral damage'. If stabalisation was a priority they wouldn't have gone there
But the situation has now changed. Whatever the intention behind the initial invasion, at the current stage stability is important. With public opinion turned against the war their now needs to be tangible signs of success in rectifying the problem.



Quote:
Originally Posted by All Systems Go
If they leave there will be big problems as the Iraqi security force will not be able to cope. However, they have passed a point of no return (they did this as soon as they went in) in that whenever they leave the countr will be a mess. the main aim is now apparantly to train enough Iraqi troops so the US and UK can pull out and iraqis can kill Iraqis.

to think we could now solve these problems is laughable. there is little if any hope, trust or support for our troops and this will continue to deteriorate as people keep dying. We are the problem, we cannot be part of the solution. this scenario was not unforseen. It is why Saddam was not toppled after the first Gulf War. the US (under Bush Snr.) wanted (to paraphrase) 'a leader with an iron fist, who isn't Samm Hussein'. A lot of the problems we are seeing now have much deeper roots than three years ago and it is only the passing of time which can cool the situation to an acceptable level.
Yes, but the problem remains that without help and intervention then Iraq is not going to be able to recover. The damage has been done, whats needed now is compromises on both sides, which unfortunatly is seeming less and less likely as the situation further deteriorates.
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Unread 28 Oct 2006, 01:03   #22
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
1. Or since everyone is against the Western presence we could just do everyone a favour and leave. Would that be so wrong?
No, and i would back it fully if i thought that it would diffuse the tension. But i honestly don't think thats the best possible action at the moment.

Do you?

With a weak central government and numerous factions fighting for control the Americans at present are at least presenting a common enemy. The Iraqi forces are in no position to take over the role of the American troops, and untill they are i don't see how they can withdraw.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
2. I think we've *helped* just about enough for the time being.
But by the same reasoning, if we got them into the mess, then surely the least we can do is try to get them out of it?

Now i know very little of specific tactics , but the current ones are clearly not working, so a change has to be made. Effective measures have to be introduced to reverse the violence and bloodshed.

If the situation worsens to the degree whereby a pull out of troops is the only option left then this should be done.

But i don't believe that all the possibilities have been attempted, and until they have then we cannot in good faith withdraw the troops without making the effort.
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Unread 28 Oct 2006, 09:02   #23
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

I'd like to know what you think the likely results from us pulling from Iraq are.
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Unread 28 Oct 2006, 14:12   #24
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

can someone find the cia reports from 1988 to 1991 where they state, especially after the invasion of Kuwait:

'We can push the Iraqi's back to Iraq with great ease, but we strongly recommend you to keep Sadam in the seat, since things will get chaotic and uncontrollable once he is gone'

Please?
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Unread 30 Oct 2006, 23:14   #25
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

bbc link on this subject

incidently as far as i can tell there still isn't any counter opinion based on rigorous sampling.
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Unread 1 Nov 2006, 00:23   #26
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

The World Fact Book estimates the death rate in Iraq in 2006 to be 5.37 per million, this would seem to be at odds with the 600,000 + figure over a 40 month period or else the rate is dropping drasticly over the last year. However, I don't really know where the World Fact Book gets its figures from or wheter they are better or worse than this study. https://www.cia.gov/cia//publication...iz.html#People

However, I am sure the CIA is an unbiased source of information on the matter.
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Unread 1 Nov 2006, 00:28   #27
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
The World Fact Book estimates the death rate in Iraq in 2006 to be 5.37 per million, this would seem to be at odds with the 600,000 + figure over a 40 month period or else the rate is dropping drasticly over the last year. However, I don't really know where the World Fact Book gets its figures from or wheter they are better or worse than this study. https://www.cia.gov/cia//publication...iz.html#People

However, I am sure the CIA is an unbiased source of information on the matter.
Don't need any source, the deaths of thousands should be pretty obvious to most people considering what's gone on. 50000 or 600000 it's still pretty atrocious. Regardless of how you debate the stats, something has to change in Iraq, the problem is no one knows how it can be made to be better for everyone involved because it probably can't.
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Unread 1 Nov 2006, 00:49   #28
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

One of the things I find intersting is the argument that the US is doing this for cheap oil.

A quick calculation indicates that if the 2.6 million barrel a day production of pre-war levels were acheived (which they aren't) based on $70 per barrel (which it is quite a bit lower at the moment) the $80+ billion that the US tax payer is spending on the war (and this doesn't count the British and other countries expenditures on the war), if the US were taking every single barrel of oil produced and not having to spend another penny on production, shipping, etc. the cost per gallon would be abourt $84 per barrel.

2.6 million barrels times 365 days of production = 949 million barrels a year.

$70 per barrel = $66.43 billion dollar value of oil produced in one year.

It will be noticed that this is less than is being expended on the war.

Thus, cheap oil isn't the answer.
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Unread 1 Nov 2006, 02:08   #29
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
Thus, cheap oil isn't the answer.
An alternate explanation is that the American's simply haven't achieved their goals. The Second World War was (among other things) about Germany seeking lebensraum - the fact at the end of it it didn't have this in Eastern Europe doesn't negate that - it just means they miscalculated the Russian resistance and the likely British/French/American involvement in any conflict. It's a mistake to presume military or political planners are omniscient.

But it's not about "cheap oil" as such anyway (and who here said it was?). It's about strategic control of resources and controlling the balance of power in the region generally. The relative price of oil is a different issue and low oil prices aren't necessarily a win-win for anyone (even the Americans). Oil being "too" low in price means a lot of Euro-American investments lose their value dramatically (e.g. North Sea oil is pretty much uneconomic beyond a certain price) not to mention other economic problems.

Also, one has to question where a large portion of Iraq's oil wealth will actually go.
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Unread 1 Nov 2006, 21:59   #30
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
In any case if its not about oil then there must be another reason for this terrible crime against humanity?
This is a very broad statement with many underlying assumptions.

Which "crime against humanity" are you addressing here?

What is the motive for the "insurgents" as to their crimes against humanity?

Are there any crimes against humanity by anyone other than western governments in this situation?
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Unread 3 Nov 2006, 14:42   #31
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
Its a crime by any sane definition, even the UN charter.

Its against humans, lots of them. Thus the "broad" label crime against humanity seems to fit.

The motives of the insurgents are fairly clear, they want the US army to leave their country. The insurgency is responsible for grave crimes, however given that firstly they actually have a right to be in their own country and secondly that they are responding to US aggression that is neither here nor there when talking about America's crimes.

If the tables were turned and there were Iraqi troops occupying the United States having bombed all the major cities and killed many American citizens and tortured others, and a US citizen took action to kill those Americans co-operating with the Iraqi forces, would you as a US citizen honestly be carping about their crimes against humanity or would you support them in principle?
First off, the insurgents are made up not only of iraqis, but of a large number of people from other arab states who have come for a ruck with US forces at the expense of innocent Iraqi civilians. So some of the insurgents are at best as bad as the US/UK, who lets get it straight have behaved ****ing shamefully.

As for the ones who are Iraqi, depends what they define as cooperation. If cooperation is just trying to get on with your life or shopping at a market then they haven't got a leg to stand on. From where i'm standing they are just as much out for turf as the US/UK were initially and are just as bad.

Yeah, we're at fault, we caused it, but for me that doesn't give them any excuses for what they're doing or even saying it's 'understandable' because quite honestly I think they are ****ing mental.
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Unread 3 Nov 2006, 16:34   #32
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by lokken
a large number of people from other arab states who have come for a ruck with US forces at the expense of innocent Iraqi civilians. So some of the insurgents are at best as bad as the US/UK
(emphasis added)

While we might (heavily) question the motives of people who go to other countries to join their fights (especially in this case) I don't think you can stretch it as far to say there is some sort of moral equivalence between them and others who attack/invade a foriegn country.

There's obviously historical parallels here but I don't really wish to Godwin up this thread.
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Unread 3 Nov 2006, 18:07   #33
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

I don't think anyone suggested that the war was to secure cheap oil in the shirt term for the US. war in the middle east, regardless of success or failure or how wise or stupid the war is, would result in the price of oil going up.

The argument (which you may or may not believe) was that the US was trying to secure for itself long term supplies of oil in the region. By establishing a US supported and armed 'friendly' (or puppet, depending on your view) government in Iraq, they would have secured themselves access to Iraqi oil, and a friendly vote on the OPEC council, in case Saudi gets uppity.

Oh, and though vast sums of money were given to US companies in terms of reconstruction contracts, actual oil contracts were kept for Iraqs with profits supposedly being put to use in Iraq.

Interestingly, over 80% of reconstruction contracts handed out to US companies have defaulted. They spent all the money, and accomplished little to nothing, citing the deteriorating security situation.
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Unread 5 Nov 2006, 01:35   #34
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

It may be about to get a whole lot worse.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/04112006/32...ict-looms.html
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Unread 5 Nov 2006, 01:39   #35
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by All Systems Go
It may be about to get a whole lot worse.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/04112006/32...ict-looms.html
it worries me that you read such rubbish let alone quote it
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Unread 5 Nov 2006, 01:44   #36
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
it worries me that you read such rubbish let alone quote it
What exactly is wrong with a story provided by the oldest and third-largest news agency in the world?


Seems like a competent article to me - and one that I fully expect to be proven correct. No matter what the verdict, it's going to get messy.
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Unread 5 Nov 2006, 02:18   #37
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
What exactly is wrong with a story provided by the oldest and third-largest news agency in the world?


Seems like a competent article to me - and one that I fully expect to be proven correct. No matter what the verdict, it's going to get messy.
we'll be lucky to live to see it given all of those immigrants coming over here and stealing our jobs!
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Unread 5 Nov 2006, 06:31   #38
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
The motives of the insurgents are fairly clear, they want the US army to leave their country. The insurgency is responsible for grave crimes, however given that firstly they actually have a right to be in their own country and secondly that they are responding to US aggression that is neither here nor there when talking about America's crimes.
For domestic resistance, then i think this is partially right. Horn's comments about foreign insurgents i think are fairly applicable here, as they have the same right to be in Iraq as the US/UK/Australian troops (ie, very little). I would imagine, also, that foreign insurgents would be more inclined to kill Iraqi civilians (or at least, be less careful), but obviously i dont have proof of that on me.

However, my main point of disagreement with you here, T&F, is that you seem to cast these insurgents as 'freedom fighters' (for want of a better term), who are only defending their country from foreign invaders and their puppets who run around slaughtering children etc. Whilst melodramatic, i still think this is a fairly naive type of mentality. I think that whilst "they want the US army to leave their country" is correct, their reasons for doing so may differ from those you've put forward. I believe that these groups are after nothing more than political power, money and influence over people and the resource endowments of their country. Further, it serves their interests to have a prolonged war-torn environment as stability tends to promote economic activity, which generally tends to promote wealth, and then education, and when people are educated then the large mass support for these organisations would, i imagine, tend to fall away and thus diminishing their power and influence over others.

If the world was as you say, then i think you're right. Our presence wouldnt be doing much good at all. But given that power hungry mullahs or muftis or etc are just in it for themselves, and not part of the 'national interest', then i think that there is still significant potential for coalition governments (note, not neccessarily/only troops) to aid Iraq to recovery; plenty of news articles have chronicled the successes of Australian troops in the southern provices of Iraq, like Al-Muthana i think its spelt, (although more peaceful than compared to Baghdad), have proven to be more or less flourishing without the mass violence of elsewhere.

Edit:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
we'll be lucky to live to see it given all of those immigrants coming over here and stealing our jobs!
That's just a silly comment, and you know it.
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Unread 5 Nov 2006, 11:24   #39
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

On a sidenote, Saddam just got sentenced to death by hanging. Does anyone think this will actually improve the situation down there?
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Unread 5 Nov 2006, 12:11   #40
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by qebab
On a sidenote, Saddam just got sentenced to death by hanging. Does anyone think this will actually improve the situation down there?
It's better than the alternative - Saddam being found not guilty.


The ratio of Shia to Sunni in Iraq is 70-30 - and Saddam was a Sunni. The insurgency is already Sunni-based, so it won't be boosted that much by a few more Sunnis joining it. In contrast, if the Shias started rioting then Iraq would have a very big problem on its hands (and probably a complete descent into civil war).


I don't seem to be expressing myself very well this morning, but hopefully enough of my point has made it into text form.
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Unread 5 Nov 2006, 12:19   #41
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

I think it's too late to be worried considering the court he was tried in was wholly inappropriate and thus any kind of verdict is hardly going to have authority, never mind the sentence, however guilty he is.

I don't doubt Saddam did terrible things, but if he was tried internationally and sentenced to life imprisonment I can imagine a lot of people being far more satisfied than they are now.
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Unread 5 Nov 2006, 12:21   #42
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by lokken
I can imagine a lot of people being far more satisfied than they are now.

I don't think that's true. You know how much people love a public execution.
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Unread 6 Nov 2006, 03:28   #43
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
I am sure they have their political agenda, an agenda that happens to be supported by many Iraqi people.
I suppose, ultimately, it comes down to whether you think that, a people through collective interest wish to jump off a cliff; do you intervene to stop this catastrophe from happening, or not? Whether or not our intervention created that cliff or not, i think that there is some merit to "saving the people from themselves" as it were, in order to stave off some form of political or other oppression.

Quote:
Furthermore there aren't that many foreign insurgents in Iraq as a percentage of the overall groups.
I dont have any statistics on this issue, so i cant comment.

Quote:
Also please don't set up a false interpretation of my argument and then label it melodramatic, you are the one making up the drama.
No, that was me acknowledging that i was making a melodramatic statement, an exaggeration to highlight a point. It was not directed to you.

Quote:
If you read what you quoted you will notice that I didn't put forward any reasons why they wanted the US out, its just clear that they do.
I am arguing that its pretty silly to be advocating a course of action without even speculating on what would happen if it came to pass.

If coalition troops withdraw, what happens in Iraq? What happens in other places that requires US defence agreements, namely Afghanistan, but also elsewhere around the world including Japan? In Iraq, i was speculating/postulating that what would happen is that it would come under some form of oppressive rule; as many fractured countries who have a dominant group tend towards. These rulers would not necessarily have popular support, but will tend to nevertheless be powerful because of their disposition.

Quote:
A lot of the insurgents will be ordinary people who feel they cannot stand by and watch and occupying power steal their country. They are entitled to resources in Iraq, it is their country.
This is true; however if the fastest way to regain control of your contry is to NOT fight the occupier, who wants nothing more than to leave as soon as tehy can without leaving total anarchy behind, then it seems to me to be pretty silly to continue fighting. Having said that, i'm not an Iraqi in Iraq, so that is only speculation.

Quote:
Your bit about war being in their interests is silly, because it is us who are prolonging the war, not them,
It takes two to tango, T&F; so saying that one side is to blame is a bit extreme, in my opinion. Frankly, both sides are in the wrong, and to what degree is largely irrelevent as assigning blame isnt really productive or conducive going forward.

Quote:
Furthermore you are buying into the propaganda that they want to cause misery for everyone.
Propaganda goes both ways mate; I am pretty cynnical when it comes to the motives of people, i'm an economist in training. Would it not be equally correct to say that you are buying into the propaganda that if the coalition leaves then all the problems will be fixed and everything will return to a nice happy place? Frankly, neither is correct, it is somewhere in between.

Quote:
Clearly they want wealth and education and so forth in their country, they are mostly ordinary people.
"They" depends. People tend to act in whatever means serves their own interests (sometimes people act in the collective interest, and there is research on this, but lets not go there for now). As such, the "ordinary citizen" desires safety, functional education systems, functional health systems and basic utilities such as water & electricity. Obviously, i have no problems with this; it makes sense and its a fantastic ideal that is too quickly forgotten in the West. However, i beleive that the "ordinary citizen" is more or less powerless when they are faced with more militant individuals. How often in history has the militant group dominated the pacifist group? As such, i think ultimately the country will be more or less controlled by "militant" groups of people, whose interest is not necessarily the same as those of the "ordinary citizen". Now, this is still the case in the West whereby politicians are to some degree interested in the power that their office holds, however our "ordinary citizens" tend to have some certain minimum standards that on a world scale are fairly high, and we know how to demand what we want from those in power; plus it helps that the powerful tend not to go around and shoot us if we dissent or demand fairness :\. In Iraq, i fear that this institution is not well developed, and as such there will be relevtively less resistance to it happening, thus increasing the probability that it will occur. If it occurs, i think it is a bad thing for the "ordinary citizens" of Iraq.

Quote:
Even those people who would dream of ruling Baghdad with an iron Islamic fist would still have more right to be in Iraq than us.
In Iraq, yes probably; especially if they were Iraquis. However, who really has the right to involuntarily oppress others? And i think it would be fairly likely that anyone who rules with an "iron Islamic fist" will be oppressive towards someone or group at some stage.

Quote:
How can you call the mullahs and muftis more power hungry than the US and the UK?
I never said that they were. I just worried about what would happen if they became successful.

Quote:
Also if these muftis and mullahs do have power it can only be sourced from the Iraqi people so they would still be more legitimate than us.
Unlike you, i'm not quite so sure that the "Iraqi people" are a single homogeneous entity; rather as a collection of sheep and wolves for want of a better example. Sheep outnumber wolves by a large margin, however Wolves still dominate Sheep. Is it legitimacy that grants the transfer of power from the sheep to the wolves, or is it something else/ a collection of other things. Fear springs to mind. Having said that, its only when the interests of the wolves are different to those of the sheep for whatever reason, that you have problems.

Quote:
The US and the UK certainly aren't present for the Iraqi national interest as even they themselves say, they are making the problem worse with their presence.
British Generals have said alot of stupid things in the past. Do a quick browse of Australian Military History for some examples.

Quote:
Your entire argument is based on false premises:

Firstly that the US and the UK are interested in the welfare of the Iraqi people. This is plainly untrue unless we concur that the US and UK are extremely stupid.
Not really. My argument is more along the lines of the premise that those who have the power to take control in Iraq will probably not be very good for the "ordinary citizen", though i'm sure it will be absolutely fine for those in power. Just because x is the opposite of Z doesnt make z the opposite of x.

o_O

Quote:
Secondly that the insurgents are one homogeneous group of fanatical Islamists.
Not quite; i understand that there are a variety of motivations for people to take up arms in Iraq; the saftey of their family and household, to enact positive political change, to reap vengenace of whatever racial group is next door, national identity and freedom, hatred of christians/americans/foreigners, religious reasons, palastine, personal loyalty, money, prestiege and power, etc.

What i believe is that ultimately, when its all over, those who have the strongest dispositions will probably be victorious. Of these insurgent type groups, i believe that the "fanatical Islamists" are probably the most hardy, and are thus the most likely to win over the other groups, at least in some areas. The implications of these people winning is probably bad for most of the "ordinary citizens" of Iraq who tend to be mostly secular. This is what i am concerned about.
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Unread 6 Nov 2006, 10:27   #44
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
Damn this goes on and on.
Yes, its a good show, isnt it!


I still more or less disagree with what you are saying here, alas i dont have the time to go back and read all the other posts atm. So when i do, i'll fire off another broadside and we can keep this going .

Sounds like fun?
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Unread 6 Nov 2006, 13:03   #45
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

On the issue of foriegn insurgents, a Human Rights Watch report in 2005 quoted an American source that said less than 5% of captured insurgents were non-Iraqi. Now, it might be that these foriegn fighters were better at evading capture, or that their numbers have increased over time, but I'm not sure there's any evidence for that.

(Not that foriegn insurgents would necessarily be an evil thing. Spanish emigres assisted the French insurgents (erm, sorry - resistance) in WW2. OK, so now I've Godwin-ed.)
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Unread 6 Nov 2006, 13:45   #46
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

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Originally Posted by Ultimate Newbie
I am arguing that its pretty silly to be advocating a course of action without even speculating on what would happen if it came to pass.
That's a bit of an irrelevent aside, as invading (and occupying) was a course of action without speculation on what would happen if it came to pass. It's like being asked if you want Cod or Salmon for dinner and announcing "Cod, the other one's a fish!"
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Unread 6 Nov 2006, 21:25   #47
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

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Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
That's a bit of an irrelevent aside, as invading (and occupying) was a course of action without speculation on what would happen if it came to pass. It's like being asked if you want Cod or Salmon for dinner and announcing "Cod, the other one's a fish!"
Oh, i'm not denying that the US/Coalition occupation was extremely poorly planned and based upon rediculous assumptions; mainly that the Iraqi people would swarm to the 'liberators' and immediately help them as much as possible, praise the ground that GIs and Marines stood upon and freely blow them at their request.

I'm really hoping that the major lesson learnt from this whole debacle by the US military is not only to plan for victory - something they are actually very good at - but also plan for occupation.

Besides, i prefer Salmon over Cod .
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Unread 7 Nov 2006, 14:24   #48
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

im not sure how planning for an occupation would have been better, apart from the unfortunate wording

'mein leader we shall free the people with freedom but must plan to stop them resisting'

the iraqi security forces number several hundredthousand but the killing continues.

as tnf says id hope this shows they shouldn't invade other nations, oh and that the almighty american and british armies aren't all that scary.
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Unread 8 Nov 2006, 01:28   #49
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

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Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
Furthermore you would have hoped they would have learned this lesson in Afghanistan, or Vietnam.
Afghanistan was a 'victory', which means they probably did everything / enough things right; as such, there were no lessons to be learnt.

Vietnam had different lessons; removal of political interference from military operations, dont pick sides in a civil war, fighting in the jungles is a bad idea, etc. You're right though; some of these lessons (ie, political interference) have been un-learnt to some degree, which is generally unfortunate for the troops and the ordinary citizens.

Quote:
im not sure how planning for an occupation would have been better, apart from the unfortunate wording
Planning for the occupation would have resulted in far more initial reconstruction of basic services such as water and electricity as you would have planned to have brigades of engineers ready to go as soon as the conventional army had been defeated in an area. Additionally, you would have planned for mass rioting/looting in cities which undermined the respect foreign troops had by just standing by and watching as people's livelihoods were stolen and/or destroyed by the mobs. Further, an occupying power would have recognised the threat that those 'little guys with guns' would pose; their impact was ignored or played down in the immediate aftermath, and henceforward the resistance/insurgency blossomed. Just those three little things; reducing the incentive to resist by quickly reestablishing basic services, enforcing law and order rather than be seen to be endorsing the mass looting, and effectively supressing insurgent groups before they became adapt at what they were doing (or as large) would have significantly reduced the problems that the ordinary citizens in iraq are facing.

I mean, if these things are obvious to me, what are those staff and flag officers who spend months/years planning these things doing?!'

Quote:
the almighty american and british armies aren't all that scary.
Well, as a British soldier the Americans are pretty scary; isnt a huge proportion of British troops killed due to American 'friendly fire'?

Anyway, both the US and British armies are designed specifically for conquest; not for occupation. In that regard, those armies took control of a country the size of Britain in a couple of weeks and destroyed the conventional Iraqi army outright whenever they chose to fight. The superiority was such that US forces (at least) had orders not to fire on Iraqi ARMY troops unless they received fire first. That pretty much has to be a first for an invading army.

So, it depends on what you are trying to do. Throughout history, armies have not been really that effective at surpressing resistance movements, short of killing a large proportion of the people who support them. However, when it comes to conquest, American and British troops are 'scary'.
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Unread 8 Nov 2006, 01:31   #50
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Re: 654,965 Dead Iraqis Later

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultimate Newbie
Afghanistan was a 'victory', which means they probably did everything / enough things right; as such, there were no lessons to be learnt.
Are you joking?
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