"Nobody has ever bet enough on a winning horse."
It's that time of year again. The time of year the majority take great delight in losing money at a sport in which animals regularly get crippled or killed.
Yes it's the Grand National.
The Horses
BALLYCASSIDY (IRE)
BEWLEYS BERRY (IRE)
BILLYVODDAN (IRE)
BOTHAR NA (IRE)
CELTIC SON (FR)
CLAN ROYAL (FR)
CLOUDY BAYS (IRE)
DUN DOIRE (IRE)
EUROTREK (IRE)
GALLANT APPROACH (IRE)
GRAPHIC APPROACH (IRE)
HEDGEHUNTER (IRE)
HOMER WELLS (IRE)
IDLE TALK (IRE)
JACK HIGH (IRE)
JOES EDGE (IRE)
KANDJAR D'ALLIER (FR)
KELAMI (FR)
KNOWHERE (IRE)
L'AMI (FR)
LE DUC (FR)
LIBERTHINE (FR)
LIVINGSTONEBRAMBLE (IRE)
LONGSHANKS
MCKELVEY
MONKERHOSTIN (FR)
NAUNTON BROOK
NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (IRE)
PHILSON RUN (IRE)
POINT BARROW (IRE)
PUNTAL (FR)
ROYAL AUCLAIR (FR)
SILVER BIRCH (IRE)
SIMON
SLIM PICKINGS (IRE)
SONEVAFUSHI (FR)
THE OUTLIER (IRE)
THISTHATANDTOTHER (IRE)
TIKRAM
ZABENZ (NZ)
You can find a random review of the horses
here.
My Picks
This is how i arrived at my picks. I will say "If you like money i suggest you follow them" so i can be suitably laughed at when they all fail to finish. I'm a giver not a taker after all. Anyways ...
2 or 3 years ago i read an article in NewScientist about the Grand National. Some statiticians had gone over past results and figured out what was important in how to pick winners. What was important boils down to one thing:
"Horses who do well in the Grand National have run it, AND COMPLETED IT, before."
Apparantly the Grand National is a bastard of a race with mile high fences. These fences throw horses who have not experienced them before.
Anyways the article suggested three tips to be bet on each way. I duly did so. 3 horses bet on. 1 came first. 1 came fourth. I bet £15 and got back £130 (plus my stake where applicable).
I just put on a random bet last year and rued it when my friend who followed the advice i gave him, which is the advice i'm giving you, backed a horse who had previously completed the race and won a fair amount of money.
Anyways looking through the list the following horses have been picked out. I've left my comments, based on the guides ive read (see link above), in after their names so you can form very slightly more informed judgements.
Hedgehunter – won & second
Numbersixvalverde – won
Royal Auclair – 2nd
Ballycassidy – fell at the 25th (of 30) when leading last year
Clan Royal – 2nd & 3rd but too old now and poor form this year???
Dum Dorie – Has run before but has he completed it??? (doesn’t like firm – hot weather this weekend)
Joes Edge – finished 7th likes good ground (which he’ll probably get) and 8ilbs lighter this year
Now you can see Ballycassidy hasn't actually completed the course but he was almost there so i felt he was a horse worth bearing in mind. I couldn't be arsed finding out any more about Dum Dorie *shrug*. Joes Edge looks good from what i've read about him and that good reading appears to be reflected in his odds (which is rather upsetting).
Anyways with this information to hand, and following my system i decided to bet on:
- Joe's Edge
- Numbersixvalverde
- Hedgehunter
- Royal Auclair
I gave myself 4 bets cause i always bet each way on the grand national. Who knows all four could romp home in placed positions (this is me holding my breath).
Clan Royal and Ballycassidy i also felt may be worth a piss about covering bet.
Betting
For my horses the odds in the high street bookies as of today seem to be
Joe's Edge - 9/1 (maybe 8/1)
Numbersixvalverde - 12/1
Hedgehunter - 14/1
Royal Auclair - 33/1
Clan Royal - 25/1
Ballycassidy - 50/1
You can get up to date online odds from
PaddyPower
Introductory offer = Place a £30 bet and get 3 x £10 bets over 3 weeks PLUS top 5 pays each way for everybody for the Grand National!!!
Coral
Introductory offer = Deposit £40 (in one go) & bet (spread over as many bets as you want) & you get a free £10 bet
Betfair
Introductory Offer = Bet £25 (spread over as many bets as you want but within 14 days of registering & get a free £25 bet within 24 hours of your bets being settled)
totesport
Introductory offer = Initial bet of between £5 & £50 matched
Ladbrokes
(sorry can't get a direct link & no introductory offer)
Paddypower looks the best so i've opened and account and gone with them.
The odds i got, the amount i staked and the potential pay out are
Joe's Edge - 9/1, £5 E-W, (Placed - £16.25, Win - £66.25)
Numbersixvalverde - 14/1, £5 E-W (Placed - £22.50, Win - £97.50)
Hedgehunter - 14/1, £5 E-W (Placed - £22.50, Win - £97.50)
Royal Auclair - 40/1, £15 E-W (Placed - £150, Win - £780)
Clan Royal - 25/1, £2 E-W (Placed - £14.50, Win - £66.50)
Ballycassidy - 50/1, £2 E-W (Placed - £27, Win - £129)
Because i bet £30 in the one bet (on Royal Auclair) i got a free £10 bet (which i used on Numbersixvalverde).
Total cost of bets = £58
Maximum Potential Payout = £868.25
This compares to a potential win of £491.25 (a difference of £377) if i'd used the high street bookies. This way i also get another 2 x £10 bets (which i'm gonna fire onto the surest things i can find in the next two weeks). Admittidly i wouldn't have placed 6 bets if i was betting on a 4 placed race but as i wasn't ...
And You???
So that's me, my picks, my bets and my reasoning. What are you guys going for?
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