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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 12:00   #1
Nodrog
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[Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

I have $200 in my paypal account and don't really need it until closer to Christmas, so if it's likely that the dollar will recover in this time, I'll delay converting it into £ and cashing it until later so I can get more money.
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 12:11   #2
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Apparently it'll fall a bit further but rebound in the new year sometime back to around 90-95% of what it's value was prior to it's decline.
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 12:58   #3
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

if it keeps falling at this pace pretty soon the ECB and the BoJ will do something about it (probably somewhere between $1.35 and $ 1.40 per euro). in that case it could be pushed back below 1.30 again, at least if the traders get scared of the central banks.
but i may be wrong and the central banks do nothing at all, in that case the dollar will most likely continue to fall.

long term i would sell rather today than tomorrow, but until christmas its hard to say what will happen. you may be lucky
(sorry for euro exchangerates, but i dont know much about the actual values for £, but since this is a dollar-weakness and not a pound-strength the pound will most likely follow the same direction as the euro and any other currency on this planet.)
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 13:16   #4
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Most things I have read seem to expect it to continue falling in the near future though while the ECB originally said they wouldn't interfere their complaints the other day suggest they may soon.
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 14:49   #5
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

I changed all mine back before the election. I just wish I had changed them earlier really.
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 15:17   #6
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

i am waiting till opec drops the dollar
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 15:51   #7
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knight Theamion
i am waiting till opec drops the dollar
they already started. ( i read that today, but i cant find a link :/, they reduced the percentage of dollars in their total holding of foreign currencies to around 50% from more than 60% a few years ago)
also, if you hold dollar right now and you plan to switch them back to euros you would actually lose money if you wait until the opec (or anyone else) starts to drop the dollar.
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 15:56   #8
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

hasn't china been up to something similar?
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 16:08   #9
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mist
hasn't china been up to something similar?
no, some offical said something like that, but it was a translation-problem. there is absolutly no way china could sell a part of their 500 billion $ (except maybe the ECB would buy them for €, but i dont see that happening)
Russia and Indonesia said they would consider switching a part of the dollar-reserves to euros, but that's just a few billions, compared to china or japan nothing to really worry about.
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 16:48   #10
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

so, everyone's stuck with dollars they don't want, basically?

-mist
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Unread 7 Dec 2004, 17:04   #11
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mist
so, everyone's stuck with dollars they don't want, basically?

-mist
no, just China and Japan. i guess the dollar would fall a little if many asian central banks would say they want to sell dollar for euro, but i guess it wouldnt be that bad. (no country is going to sell all of its dollar, all that some countries can do is reduce their dollars a little and buy euros for them.)
in case of china and japan such a move would cause a lot of panic in the market and their remaining dollars would lose a lot more more value than the euros they hold would gain.
(sorry my grammar is obviously completly messed up, but i hope you get the idea )
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Unread 8 Dec 2004, 13:24   #12
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ory_id=3446249

good article
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Unread 8 Dec 2004, 18:56   #13
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Short Answer : No

Dont expect Bush to give a shit about the Dollar for quite some time to come. Its not to his benefit for there to be a strong dollar when a weak dollar is fuelling US exports even if in real terms companies are getting less for their products. Hes happy to create a false economic boom for the short term, and if he needs to, for the next 4 years. He knows that eventually when he wanders off, its someone elses mess to clear up, and he will be far too rich to care by that point.
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Unread 8 Dec 2004, 19:03   #14
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

£++

Dollar shall fall and all the infidels will pay!





PS: Yes the dollar thing is a joke.

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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 00:17   #15
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

i dont own dollars atm, so i just wait for the opec to drop it
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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 04:15   #16
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Actually, a week dollar is good for out economy in real terms.

The increased exports reduce unemployement, and stimulate spending in our economy.

Than and the fact that US business are stil getting more business and making more profits than they would if the dollar was stronger than the global markets.

(dont Aggregate Supply/demand analysis)

Quote:
Hes happy to create a false economic boom
Its hardly false. You dont know what your talking about :-/
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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 05:04   #17
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

if it were a real boom, surely the government would be able to raise taxes, rather than borrowing copiously?
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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 07:23   #18
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

its not a real boom yet. Ever heard of the Business cycle. We are currently in the Recovery phase.

That, and the fact that traditionally republicans dont like to raise taxes.
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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 10:44   #19
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Qdeathstar
Actually, a week dollar is good for out economy in real terms.

The increased exports reduce unemployement, and stimulate spending in our economy.

Than and the fact that US business are stil getting more business and making more profits than they would if the dollar was stronger than the global markets.

(dont Aggregate Supply/demand analysis)



Its hardly false. You dont know what your talking about :-/
something i wrote somewhere else:

Lets say the dollar keeps falling. what happens? there are a few possibilities:
a) you don't have (enough of) the stuff you import, example oil and probably other raw-materials. the price for those goods will rise and there isnt much you can do about it. US-companies that use those raw-materials to produce their goods will also have to rise their prices. Inflation.
b) you could produce a certain good on your own, but stoped it, because the costs were too high. On the short term, prices for those goods will also rise, because you can't restart production from one day to the other. After a while production in the us would start again, but the costs for it would be still higher than before the fall of the dollar (or there would have been no sense in outsorcing to another country in the first place). also 'some' inflation.

so far we got higher prices. The wages within the US can't rise, because that would destroy the competitive advantage you get out of the fallen dollar. (It doesn't make any difference to me as a european if an american product costs 100€ because its production costs 100$ and the exchange rate is 1:1 or if it costs 100€ because its production costs 130$ and the exchangerate is 1:1.3; works within the US the same way)

so we got higher prices and constant wages, that means a lower standard of living for the people in the US. how much good it will do you for the exports to other countries, i dont know, but i expect the rest of the world to fall into a recession if the us-market is gone. if i loose my job, i wont buy much, no matter how cheap american products are.
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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 14:27   #20
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Lets say the dollar keeps falling.


The weak dollar wont continue to fall, because the factors i menchioned will create increased demand for the dollar, to buy american products, and the dollar will begin to rize.
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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 14:38   #21
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

no it wont, since America is an importing, not an exporting country, and because of the weak dollar people will only buy within america, not from outside, which means that your trade deficit only rises and rises and rises ...
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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 14:40   #22
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Some tourist spots across the border between the border of canada and america on the american side have started accepting canadian dollar at parity.
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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 15:02   #23
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Qdeathstar
Lets say the dollar keeps falling.


The weak dollar wont continue to fall, because the factors i menchioned will create increased demand for the dollar, to buy american products, and the dollar will begin to rize.
did you even TRY to understand what i just wrote? without a drop in the standard of living in the us the weaker dollar will change nothing.
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Unread 9 Dec 2004, 15:03   #24
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Re: [Economics] Is the dollar likely to get stronger within the next month?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunday8pm
Some tourist spots across the border between the border of canada and america on the american side have started accepting canadian dollar at parity.
i read about some beggars in Vietnam who wouldnt accept dollars and wanted euros instead. heh.
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