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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 19:13   #51
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

What we have is a small communist state posturing on the world stage saying look at me I got a big H-Penis.

The only way NK would use a weapon of this sort would be as an attempt to stop an invasion or to deter a hostile act from other countries, It may well be able to make and set off a nuclear device but it has no viable delivery system (yet) the missiles it does have are very short range and would only threaten their immediate neighbours, it has Zero threat on the US or Europe other than as intimidation.
If we refuse to be intimidated the threat is negated.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 19:15   #52
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dace
I'm not overly worried. Nobody lives forever. Not even Kim Jong-Il.

qft plus he only has enough radioactive stuff for a handful of bombs, a handful of cities get wiped out on either side, shit happens, at least we won't have to work the next day
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 20:01   #53
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Deepflow
It wouldn't if you'd been brought up to believe that your country was true and right and the best and whatever the **** else theyre brought up to believe.
I would be extremely surprised if most people in NK were happy with their lives regardless of the propaganda theyre being fed. Arent China and South Korea continually having to repel NK immigrants from their borders? You know a country is pretty screwed up when people are actually viewing China as a better place to live.

I think destroying the regime is in everyone's long term interests, even if this results in a fair few causalties. Yeah, Kim Jong will die soon, but I doubt hes going to go out of his way to ensure that rulership is passed onto someone who cares about minor things like freedom, food, and human rights. I really cant think of even a single plus point that comes from letting the Korean regime continue.

Last edited by Nodrog; 9 Oct 2006 at 20:07.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 20:10   #54
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 20:30   #55
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
I would be extremely surprised if most people in NK were happy with their lives regardless of the propaganda theyre being fed. Arent China and South Korea continually having to repel NK immigrants from their borders? You know a country is pretty screwed up when people are actually viewing China as a better place to live.

According to the news tonight 70% of NK's food and energy needs come in the form of aid from China. China gives the aid as otherwise it would have hordes of North Koreans pouring over the border. As such this is, in my opinion, mostly a Chinese problem.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
I think destroying the regime is in everyone's long term interests, even if this results in a fair few causalties. Yeah, Kim Jong will die soon, but I doubt hes going to go out of his way to ensure that rulership is passed onto someone who cares about minor things like freedom, food, and human rights. I really cant think of even a single plus point that comes from letting the Korean regime continue.
I'm a big believer in the application of soft power. Sanctions are the way to go. Make things shit without pushing people "over the edge". Applying Newton's 3rd law to international politics you apply a big force to North Korea (e.g. by invading) then you're going to get lots of force pushing back. Some of the counter-force will of course take place in NK but alot of the "energy" will fuel Terrorist type organisations across the world. As such letting NK carry on (obviously with sanctions) is the best idea as the potential energy of the conflict is stored in NK and not spread out all over the world in actual "fighting energy".
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Unread 10 Oct 2006, 00:31   #56
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
When the alternative is being forced to live in North Korea, the prospect of dying doesnt sound particularly bad to me anyway.
I realise I am coming at this whole libertarian thing from a different angle to you, but I don't think we get to make decisions like that for other people.
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Unread 10 Oct 2006, 19:15   #57
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
The profound amount of ignorance displayed in this thread makes it kind of hard to comment on what has been said before.

It would seem to me that prior to the events in North Korea the world was already in very serious danger from nuclear war. In addition to America and its allies virtually reversing the test-ban treaty, giving nuclear technology to India, sabotaging the possibility of a diplomatic settlement with Iran and North Korea (mainly the US), and creating a precedent for only voluntarily invading countries with little or no means to defend themselves, it is clear that whilst we wring our hands and talk about these maniacs in far-flung countries we perhaps shouldn't cover ourselves in glory for sane and rational planning for the survival of the species.

We can blame Bush, or the multi-national corporations or the Russians, the Chinese and perhaps even the poor bastards in North Korea for this chain of events, but ultimately we only have ourselves to blame for not doing more to stop proliferation in our own countries, for not doing enough to prevent conflict and oppression in the developing world and thus making it more likely that if it wasn't North Korea it would be someone else looking for a way to fight back.

So what can we do in such a situation? I don't think more military action is the answer, I don't see how military action in the past has decreased the likelyhood of further war, ultimately the fighting has to stop. Why not reach out to the North Korean people and offer them a choice, smother them in money and wealth and give them something to lose by indulging in such a war, ultimately it would probably be cheaper than Nodrog's alternative.
Thank you very much. Can I have another piece of the pie in the sky?
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Unread 11 Oct 2006, 17:50   #58
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
Thank you very much. Can I have another piece of the pie in the sky?
I fail to see how his post is any more unrealistic than America destroying North Korea completely which other people seem to be advocating.
Quote:
I really don't see the US intervening in the eventuality of a North Korean attack, except to pull our troops out. I don't know what we would intervene with at any rate.

As to the NK economy, it is entirely based on their military and Kim doesn't give a tinkers damn about his people. He would, on the other hand, love to have control of SK.
Yeah, I did say let's ignore potential US intervention. The point is that the North Korean military is not in amazing shape. Their artillery (as Hicks pointed out) is feared, but that's because it's all pointed at Seoul (which is only something like 100 miles from the border). They couldn't invade South Korea without pretty much total collapse.
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Unread 11 Oct 2006, 19:15   #59
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

So, Japan was first to punish them. As of today no more North-Koreans are allowed to enter Japan, and their ships are not allowed in Japanese harbours anymore. Is this the kind of action you advocated Dante? I don't think this is a bad approach to seal off the regime, and maybe even in the long run overthrow them, but I can't see North-Koreans loving Japan right now (Wich is of course not the objective, but the point is that this might backfire if they find out that they might want to support to regime more fiercely now).
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Unread 11 Oct 2006, 19:28   #60
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by qebab
So, Japan was first to punish them. As of today no more North-Koreans are allowed to enter Japan, and their ships are not allowed in Japanese harbours anymore. Is this the kind of action you advocated Dante?
Not particularly (although you probably meant to direct this at Dace). I don't really believe in "punishing" anyone for a variety of reasons :
1. Increases the misery faced by the North Korean people (who can hardly be said to be having a laugh anyway). There'll be plenty of people who think they deserve to suffer for tolerating their government, but it's not clear that overthrowing such a regime would be easy and I don't really like that line of thought anyway.
2. I'm not sure you can sensibly punish a government like North Korea's anyway. OK, the "madman" metaphor is overused and exaggerated but if we're going with it then we don't "punish" the mentally ill - there's no point. If North Korea is a rational actor, capable of responding to incentives then let's engage properly.

Overall, as I've said the best chance for peace (as I think T&F has already said) is to improve the lives of those involves. Making N Korea poorer and more isolated is unlikely to benefit anyone. Unification should probably be the long term goal (although obviously it's nothing to do with me and the South Koreans might have other ideas). I've no idea what a ban on North Koreans visiting Japan is supposed to do - it's not like there's much travelling going on by average citizens anyway. Those sorts of things only work when there is an elite you are trying to influence. One of the (more minor) things that caused apartheid to crumble was that whites in S Africa got annoyed with the restrictions they faced and certainly among the 'English' whites support ebbed away. I don't see any equivalent group in North Korea who we are attempting to influence.
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Unread 11 Oct 2006, 22:10   #61
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
The profound amount of ignorance displayed in this thread makes it kind of hard to comment on what has been said before.
Hmm. Everyone else ignorant but you are about to set us straight with laser-like insight. I can hardly wait.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
It would seem to me that prior to the events in North Korea the world was already in very serious danger from nuclear war. In addition to America and its allies virtually reversing the test-ban treaty, giving nuclear technology to India, sabotaging the possibility of a diplomatic settlement with Iran and North Korea (mainly the US),
Wonderful. The US is once again the prime cause of any problem in the world. Please explain how the US "sabotaged the possibility of a diplomatic settlement with Iran and North Korea." We negotiated diplomaticly with the N. Koreans under the Clinton administration and we gave them quite a few things and they promised us they wouldn't move toward a nuclear weapon. Clearly they didn't precisely comply with their part of the bargain. Now the US prudently says it will negotiate but only as part of a multi-lateral group. This is hardly sabatoge. It seems to be realistic to require China, the government which is propping N. Korea up, to be part of the talks at a minimum because nothing is going to be done without their approval any way. To move to bi-lateral talks in response to threats would hardly set a proper tone likely to move the N. Koreans toward peace. North Korea saying that it will consider any kind of sanctions against them as an act of war is hardly the most diplomatic position that a country could take.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
and creating a precedent for only voluntarily invading countries with little or no means to defend themselves
Please put this in English for me. Are we talking about Iraq? Afghanistan? Kosovo? Somalia? Grenada?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
it is clear that whilst we wring our hands and talk about these maniacs in far-flung countries we perhaps shouldn't cover ourselves in glory for sane and rational planning for the survival of the species.
Yes, of course. I always foget that all of the problems in the world are cause by the US and Western Europe. My white guilt sometimes abates to the point that I forget about how truely horrible we are.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
We can blame Bush, or the multi-national corporations or the Russians, the Chinese and perhaps even the poor bastards in North Korea for this chain of events
We could also blame liberal policies, the nanny state and press spinners for this chain of events. However, that wouldn't necessarily be correct. The blame for this must fall on the shoulders of the leadership of North Korea. North Korea has chosen to spend all of its meagre resources on its military and nothing on its people. When money or goods are given (yes, given) to the North Korean leadership squanders it on themselves and on the military. Who do they think is going to invade them? The US? South Korea? Japan, again? China isn't going to allow anyone to move into the northern part of the Korean Peninsula.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
, but ultimately we only have ourselves to blame for not doing more to stop proliferation in our own countries, for not doing enough to prevent conflict and oppression in the developing world and thus making it more likely that if it wasn't North Korea it would be someone else looking for a way to fight back.
I reiterate, please pass the pie.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
So what can we do in such a situation? I don't think more military action is the answer, I don't see how military action in the past has decreased the likelyhood of further war, ultimately the fighting has to stop.
All we are saying is give peace a chance. I remember the tune.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
Why not reach out to the North Korean people and offer them a choice, smother them in money and wealth and give them something to lose by indulging in such a war, ultimately it would probably be cheaper than Nodrog's alternative.
There is no way to give anything to a people without going through their government. Kim Jong Il and his folks already have more wealth than all but the wealthiest folks in the world. However, it is unlikely that they would pass on the good thing to their people. They haven't in the past. Their primary worry IS their people. They fear their own people muich more than they do the rest of us, however guilty we might be for pushing them to these extremes.

I feel so ashamed of us.
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Unread 12 Oct 2006, 02:28   #62
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Exclamation Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
Why not reach out to the North Korean people and offer them a choice, smother them in money and wealth and give them something to lose by indulging in such a war, ultimately it would probably be cheaper than Nodrog's alternative.
I don't see how reaching out to the North Korean people is possible. They're living under the boot of a brutal dictatorship that controls all the media. Even if you could reach the people, what would it accomplish? They don't have any political power (which is kind of the problem). Unless by 'reach out to the North Korean people' you mean 'reach out to Kim Jong-Il'?

Likewise, any money or wealth sent to the North Korean people will necessarily have to go through their government, which can use it to consolidate it's power (e.g., doling out the aid as a reward for loyality to the state, or withholding the aid as punishment for dissent, or just selling it for cash). A number of humanitarian NGOs (including Médicins Sans Frontières and Oxfam) have pulled out of North Korea because of inadequate access to the population and the consequent inability to confirm that their aid is actually reaching the people who need it and for whom it's intended.

Notwithstanding that, I'm not against bribing Kim Jong-Il to give up his nuclear weapons and missiles (for our own safety); but of course he has to stay bought (sorry Kim, you can only fool us once).

I don't advocate attacking or invading North Korea (primarily because of the risk of escalation with China), but cutting off trade/aid is certainly doable. Unfortunately, the North Korean people are caught in the middle here but I don't see any way to help them that doesn't also help those who are oppressing them (and ultimately prolonging their agony). :/
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