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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 08:46   #1
meglamaniac
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Exclamation NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...ic/6032525.stm
http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...C3-worldNews-2
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...est/index.html


Even China is pissed.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 09:02   #2
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Does anyone really care? They'll never use it on anyone other than as a negotiating tool, they probably think it just means noone will invade which wasn't likely anyway.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 09:21   #3
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

I'm firmly against nuclear weapons (or war where it's state against state anyway) but if countries like Pakistan, USA, and Israel to name a few have them, then why should not North Korea? They are all run by potential users, and I don't take sides in the good vs bad, axis of evil shit.

It is a sad day in the sense that more nuclear weapons will be aviable, but I do not think we know half of it anyways.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 09:46   #4
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apothos
Does anyone really care? They'll never use it on anyone other than as a negotiating tool, they probably think it just means noone will invade which wasn't likely anyway.


i would say that out of all the countries in the world currently to have nuclear weapons, NK are the most likely to use them
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 10:03   #5
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by roadrunner_0
i would say that out of all the countries in the world currently to have nuclear weapons, NK are the most likely to use them
Do you think this is more or less likely to make people more forthcoming in negotiations, or more or less likely to make people think twice about any sort of military action against them?

Given Israel's tendancy to overreact, i'd perhaps put them on a par with N. Korea - but i wouldn't really expect either to use them.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 10:08   #6
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by roadrunner_0
i would say that out of all the countries in the world currently to have nuclear weapons, NK are the most likely to use them
North Korea is a very closed society, and very different from our own. I don't think we are fully capable of understanding their way of thinking, and how they view these weapons. I would be very interested to know how they see the rest of the world. Probably much more so as outsiders than any other country in the world, but evil, corrupt, or are we just someone they need to protect themselves from?

But yeah, more nuclear weapons in the world isn't good. I find myself a bit worried with the increasing tension this creates, especially since North Korea is a part of Bushs so called "axis of evil". I just hope that noone does anything drastic about this.

But on the other hand, if noone does anything dangerous about it, is anything going to prevent other countries from making nuclear weapons?

I don't like this at all.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 10:21   #7
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by REUTERS
In a report from Moscow, Japanese broadcaster NHK quoted a Russian Defense Ministry official as saying it was "100 percent sure" that North Korea carried out a test at around that time.
Makes me wonder if the russians have more information in North Korea than others. Could be they have someone in Pyongyang. I wonder if they knew about this before it happened? If so, would they tell others about it beforehand if a nuclear war is right around the corner?
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 10:28   #8
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

ol kim probably figured saddam go pwned despite trying to bluff, so its better to make absolutely sure everyone knows you've got the bomb. And that you may be able to deliver it to certain areas of the US. Just incase anyone tries to invade.

Theres nothing substantive the US can do about it now anyway.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 12:16   #9
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

China has apparently previously threatened to use them against Taiwan...

Anyway, with NK having nuclear weapons the other countries around will be desperate for them as well.
South Korea and Japan to start a nuclear program asap?
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 12:26   #10
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

I'm not sure aside from symbolism this makes that much of a difference until their medium range missle program get's better (and they could guarantee a hit on Tokyo). Apparently there's an estimate of something like up to two million dead in Seoul from conventional weapons alone if there was a full scale conflict so it's not all sweetness and light anyway.

I think it's understood that North Korea probably would use nuclear weapons (as would most countries) as a last resort. If the American's were to invade (pretty much unthinkable at the moment and even in the future unless the Chinese were for it as well) then it's quite possible the remnants of the NK government would want to fire at someone (even if it was just a build up of American troops somewhere).

It still seems pretty unlikely they'd fire it though and those scenarios where it's envisioned always seem to involve millions dying even before nukes got launched.

I think the best that can be hoped for (mainly for the sake of the North Koreans more than anyone else) is either some sort of long term unification or a very slow death of the North Korean government (aided by China possibly).
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 12:26   #11
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
South Korea and Japan to start a nuclear program asap?
What would be the point? NK fires on Tokyo, the American's retaliate immediately and NK doesn't exist anymore. Unless there's a change in US policy to isolationism there would be little point to independent programs (didn't stop us admittedly).
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 12:42   #12
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

South Korea aren't stupid enough to put enough of their budget into the creation of nuclear weapons. They're concentrating on creating a strong high-tech economy and as far as I can tell doing very well. Countries putting their money into economy rather than military has normally been a successful strategy and in todays world where unless you're America you're going to need a concrete cassus belli for the rest of the world not to stomp on you* then it's even more sensible.

North Korea have spent a ridiculous amount of time and money creating something that they'll never use, basically. Or if they do, as Dante already said, it will be as a last gasp insane effort that won't really change anything, even that I find doubtful though.

*Or just be America, but even then the propoganda campaign that went into the invasion of Iraq and is currently gearing up towards an invasion of Iran (that will probably never happen imo, but it's fairly obvious the intention is there) was absolutely huge.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 12:49   #13
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

It's not our problem as Europeans imo
Let the Chinese, Russians and Japanese deal with it
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 12:56   #14
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

In a sane world NK would cease to exist by this evening, but the most likely outcome is more appeasement and empty negotiations.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 13:07   #15
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
In a sane world NK would cease to exist by this evening, but the most likely outcome is more appeasement and empty negotiations.
Seriously, what are you saying here? The only reason I can see for causing NK to cease to exist would be if there was a decent chance that a) they had nuclear weapons and the ability to deploy them at their enemies (which may be true now), and b) they were stupid enough to do so.

Pretty much everyone in the world agrees that it's best for us all if no-one uses nuclear weapons. I don't see NK being an exception to this, and if you think they are, you need to explain why.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 13:22   #16
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Deepflow
The only reason I can see for causing NK to cease to exist would be if there was a decent chance that a) they had nuclear weapons and the ability to deploy them at their enemies (which may be true now), and b) they were stupid enough to do so.
The very fact that theyve took it this far means theres no rational reason to believe they wont do their best to take it all the way. If something isnt done now then we'll most likely just end up having this same conversation again in 10 years time once theyve got a delivery system, and people will still be inventing rationalisations for why action shouldnt be taken. You cant pretend this sort of thing isnt happening indefinitely; sooner or later you need to draw a line and say 'if you cross this then we're going to retaliate', and here seems as good a place as any.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 13:28   #17
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
The very fact that theyve took it this far means theres no rational reason to believe they wont do their best to take it all the way.
How about: They created a nuclear weapon not to use it, but as a deterrent. You know, the same reason that everyone else who has nuclear weapons has them for.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
If something isnt done now then we'll most likely just end up having this same conversation again in 10 years time once theyve got a delivery system, and people will still be inventing rationalisations for why action shouldnt be taken. You cant pretend this sort of thing isnt happening indefinitely; sooner or later you need to draw a line and say 'if you cross this then we're going to retaliate', and here seems as good a place as any.
The main point is that there's no reason to assume that they will use it, simply because of how utterly stupid it would be. That's more reasonable than assuming they would do something that would inevitably result in their own destruction. They can take it as far as they want as long as they don't actually launch any weapons, and there is absolutely no good reason they would do so, from their perspective, which is the only one that matters.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 13:30   #18
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Kind of handy that Ban Ki-Moon from South Korea will almost certainly be the next UN Secretary General after Kofi Annan steps down.

NICE TIMING!
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 13:34   #19
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
South Korea aren't stupid enough to put enough of their budget into the creation of nuclear weapons.
Although i think this unlikely, it is plausible that 'the west' would help them out with that like they helped out Israel.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 13:42   #20
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
How about: They created a nuclear weapon not to use it, but as a deterrent. You know, the same reason that everyone else who has nuclear weapons has them for.
Well youre free to make that baseless assumption if you want, but I don't think it matters anyway; even allowing NK to have a deterrant is an extremely bad idea, and justifies action in itself.

Quote:
The main point is that there's no reason to assume that they will use it, simply because of how utterly stupid it would be.
Who knows what theyll do with it, but why even take that risk when it can be avoided? With nuclear weapons NK will have a pretty big bargaining chip that will to some extent allow it to do whatever it likes, and given their internal politics, this isnt likely to end well. You also have to look at other possibilities, like their selling weapons to terrorist organisations, or threatening to use them if foreign aid is stopped and the regime starts to collapse. Letting highly unstable dictatorships have nuclear weapons doesnt sound like a very clever long term strategy.

Last edited by Nodrog; 9 Oct 2006 at 13:48.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 13:53   #21
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Nodrog
In a sane world NK would cease to exist by this evening
How would you recommend this was achieved (keeping in mind this is one of the densest populated and most economically active regions on the planet)?
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 14:00   #22
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
How would you recommend this was achieved (keeping in mind this is one of the densest populated and most economically active regions on the planet)?
I'm not a military strategist so not really qualified to comment. Having said that, severe ariel bombing would probably be the best bet; I would hope that the locations of the most important military targets are known (and if they arent, you have to wonder what those involved in foreign intelligence have been doing for the last 10 years), so taking them out would probably be the best first step. Avoiding a retaliation on South Korea would be the primary consideration, and I dont know how feasible it would be to avoid this; its a tactical matter. Following this up by a threat to annihlate P'yŏngyang if the regime didnt step down within the next week also sounds like a good idea.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 14:04   #23
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
I'm not a military strategist so not really qualified to comment.
This is true and I too am ignorant about the consequences of such actions. I think people would be expecting casualities in the hundreds of thousands however, with millions of refugees. That might be a price worth paying but I'm not sure agree.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 14:07   #24
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
Well youre free to make that baseless assumption if you want, but I'm not sure why it matters anyway; even allowing NK to have a deterrant is an extremely bad idea, and justifies action in itself..
It's not a baseless assumption, it's based on the history of nuclear weapons up to this point. The only times they have been used against human targets were at the end of the biggest war that we have ever known, the world is far far more stable today than it was in 1945, and one of the consequences of stability is the decreased chance of nuclear weapons being deployed, them being very much a "last resort" action.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
Who knows what theyll do with it, but why even take that risk when it can be avoided?
Because the action of avoiding it (i.e invading NK and enacting a regime change) would be more damaging to the people and the world than letting them keep weapons that they will almost certainly never use. How would you even go about doing this? NK is sandwiched between China and Russia and generally in a crucial place in the world. There is no way that China and Russia would allow American forces to run roughshod over NK and implement policies that would give them an advantage in the region. Which is what would happen (or at least what would be attempted) if such a regime change took place, see Iraq for more details, except next to two of the most powerful countries in the world.

So, would you be in favour of China invading NK? How about Russia? How do you think America would react? Basically changing the situation in any meaningful way would be so destabilising to the balance of power between countries that actually matter that any benefits gained would be outweighed by the chaos which would follow.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
With nuclear weapons NK will have a pretty big bargaining chip that will to some extent allow it to do whatever it likes, and given their internal politics, this isnt likely to end well. You also have to look at other possibilities, like their selling weapons to terrorist organisations, or threatening to use them if foreign aid is stopped and the regime starts to collapse.
NK will have a pretty big bargaining chip, yes, but creating nuclear weapons is in my opinion a less effective long term strategy than investing in their economy. The differences between NK and SK are utterly huge, and despite NK having better weapons than SK, there's still no way they could win a war. Partly because of the greater power of SK economically and even the better health of it's citizens. Mostly because the rest of the world wouldn't stand for it though.

The only thing which is even slightly worrying that you mention is the possibility of terrorists being sold these weapons. I'd still argue that this is largely a phantom threat though, the danger of terrorism has been magnified ridiculously by the media, Al Qaeda barely exists any more. The main danger from terrorists comes not from any particular group, but from the idea of Western Imperialism in the minds of disaffected groups and the problems that allows. Furthermore, you have the same problems that just one person involved in it needs to have any kind of conscience for a terrorist nuclear strike to fail.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noddy
Letting highly unstable dictatorships have nuclear weapons doesnt sound like a very clever long term strategy.
I personally prefer them pissing their money up the wall to them actually building a solid power base through the creation of a powerful industry/economy. The markets have been damaging NK for decades and this is only exacerbated when they spend ridiculous amounts of funds on what will almost certainly amount to nothing more than a scare tactic. I have a certain amount of faith in the market and the people of NK eventually changing the regime, an outlook I assumed you would agree with, and one that is sped up when they weaken themselves by spending money on stupid shit like nukes.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 14:38   #25
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alessio
It's not our problem as Europeans imo
Let the Chinese, Russians and Japanese deal with it
Didn't we use up this excuse in the Balkans

Deepflow the flaw in your argument is that you believe North Korea will behave rationally when there's no real precedent for this. North Korea has been offered huge incentives numerous times to abandon development of nuclear weapons. A rational agent would have accepted these incentives and ended sanctions to make the country better. Now that they've gone over the tipping point and tested a weapon many incentives they could have extracted have been lost, this is not rational behaviour.

You could make the argument that North Korea is infact behaving rationally and wants nuclear weapons for security as Snurx does earlier but this too has a flaw. Dante mentions North Korea's conventional artillery and rocket forces are all positioned within striking distance of Seoul, there are so many of them even if the US got involved Seoul would be rubble before they could all be destroyed. North Korea has spent the last 40 years developing more than enough deterrent to a US invasion, deep under ground military bases, submarines which while old are enough to disrupt international shipping , a decent anti aircraft system and the aforementioned ability to cause such massive civilian casualties invasion could almost never be justified. North Korea has all the deterrent it needs, the only way anyone would risk striking at them would be if they did something so provocative that those loses could be justified. Saying "North Korea will never use them, think of the casualties" is silly when they've done nothing to confirm that they're a rational state.

Despite all that I think Dante hits the nail on the head, North Korea doesn't have a delivery mechanism and it probably would for now only use nuclear weapons as a last resort (though I don't think it's needed) but Nodrog also makes a valid points. The two big issues are that in 10 years they will have a delivery mechanism, are we willing to let them develop this and potentially let them hold the world to ransom ? If we aren't then what's the tipping point ? do we stop them or once they have a missile ? or now ? The second big problem is proliferation, this is something that North Korea has been caught doing several times. They have no money and are more than willing to let their technology be used by the highest bidder, what if a nuclear bomb gets into the hands of terrorists ? It's easy for people to say "if the US and Israel can have nuclear weapons why can't North Korea !" but I wonder what the reaction would be if a bomb originating in North Korea blew up London.

I think North Korea is one of the most undesirable candidates to have nuclear weapons in the world, they can't be relied on to act in the way we would expect a country to act but I also don't think we can do much about it. I doubt military action is conceivable because of the huge potential civilian casualties and I also doubt that anyone else in the region will develop nuclear weapons as suggested by several people (if North Korea ever used a nuclear weapon on a US ally the whole region would be lit up like a Christmas tree). I think what Dante said about a slow death of the North Korean government squeezed by the Western pressure and aided by China or (more unlikely) unification is the best hope.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 14:40   #26
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

As an aside, the biggest critic of NK and the proliferation of nuclear weapons is the USA, The only country in the world to actually use them.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 14:50   #27
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Judge
As an aside, the biggest critic of NK and the proliferation of nuclear weapons is the USA, The only country in the world to actually use them.
The US used nuclear weapons in a completely different world and arguably by using them they saved far more lives in terms of soldiers and civilians than would have been caused in a conventional invasion of Japan. A state like North Korea having nuclear weapons in 2006 is totally different to them being used by a democracy engaged in a world war in 1945, if you don't see why or why the world should be concerned about North Korea devloping nuclear weapons then stop posting. I'm plenty critical of US policy but when people say things which are thinly "I HATE BU$H AND AMERIKKKA" with no substance well
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 14:53   #28
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Hicks
Didn't we use up this excuse in the Balkans
Not really

-
What happends in the Middle East matters for us; we depend on eachother

but if some shithole in some far corner of the planet wants to annoy their superpower neighbours
with nuclear weapons then I believe the matter can be resolved without us
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 15:09   #29
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

i wonder in which hands nuclear weapons would be the most dangerous: North Korea, Pakistan, India, the USA, the UK, France, China or maybe Iran/Lybia? we surely can not disarm them all, can we?
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 15:18   #30
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hicks
Deepflow the flaw in your argument is that you believe North Korea will behave rationally when there's no real precedent for this. North Korea has been offered huge incentives numerous times to abandon development of nuclear weapons. A rational agent would have accepted these incentives and ended sanctions to make the country better. Now that they've gone over the tipping point and tested a weapon many incentives they could have extracted have been lost, this is not rational behaviour.
There's no precedent for it? All I'm assuming is that the NK government won't do something that will lead to there own destruction. There is no doubt that this would be the outcome if they did choose to use the weapons. The only way you can create doubt about it is to throw around words like "rational" and then say that there is no precedent for them behaving so. There's a world of difference between having a beligerrent foreign policy and building up nuclear weapons capability and actually using those weapons.

This labelling of your enemies as irrational in order to justify irrational action on your own part is pretty disgusting tbh, as that's effectively what you're doing. It amounts to "we can't be sure that NK won't act completely stupidly and seal their own fate so we have to do something completely stupid and invade them before they get the chance." It's an action built on fear, fear which is almost completely groundless. Whatever you say and whatever rhetoric you throw about, NK is still governed by rational actors with their own self-preservation at heart, and you are effectively ignoring this.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 15:19   #31
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by KoeN
i wonder in which hands nuclear weapons would be the most dangerous: North Korea, Pakistan, India, the USA, the UK, France, China or maybe Iran/Lybia? we surely can not disarm them all, can we?
Well, Isreal has been invaded and they didn't use it
the USA didn't use it in their last conflicts, neither did China, India and Pakistan, nor did the UK and France

While Iran/Lybia has shown clear intentions to misuse such capability's
I'm not saying their gonna, but they do fund and arm terrorists

And for North Korea, they are not exactly in the position to be able to use them
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 15:20   #32
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Exclamation Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by roadrunner_0
i would say that out of all the countries in the world currently to have nuclear weapons, NK are the most likely to use them
And the most likely to sell them, given that weapons are pretty much their only cash crop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
What would be the point? NK fires on Tokyo, the American's retaliate immediately and NK doesn't exist anymore.
That's true in the short term, but as NK perfects their long range missile technology that equation will change. Would the US risk Los Angeles to avenge Tokyo or Seoul? I honestly don't know the answer to that question and I strongly suspect the Japanese, South Koreans and North Koreans don't know the answer either. Thus, I think South Korea and Japan will want to have their own nuclear weapons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
South Korea aren't stupid enough to put enough of their budget into the creation of nuclear weapons.
South Korea has the 10th largest economy in the world. Funding a nuclear weapons program would be no problem for them whatsoever (and even less so for Japan ofc). I expect both South Korea and Japan will announce additional defense appropriations soon anyway (as they've done for previous NK provocations). Even if they don't go nuclear, they'll still continue (if not accelerate) ramping up their conventional forces. A stronger Japan will undoubtably worry China and other asian countries who remember WWII, and they will feel pressure to increase their military spending. Arms race ahoy.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 15:30   #33
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Alessio
but if some shithole in some far corner of the planet wants to annoy their superpower neighbours
with nuclear weapons then I believe the matter can be resolved without us
It may be in the far corner of the planet but a serious war in East Asia would almost certainly cause a major global recession to say the very least.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 15:58   #34
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
It may be in the far corner of the planet but a serious war in East Asia would almost certainly cause a major global recession to say the very least.
I don't think they would take it that far
Certainly not with China focussing on improving it's economy
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 16:01   #35
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Deepflow
There's no precedent for it? All I'm assuming is that the NK government won't do something that will lead to there own destruction. There is no doubt that this would be the outcome if they did choose to use the weapons. The only way you can create doubt about it is to throw around words like "rational" and then say that there is no precedent for them behaving so. There's a world of difference between having a beligerrent foreign policy and building up nuclear weapons capability and actually using those weapons.

This labelling of your enemies as irrational in order to justify irrational action on your own part is pretty disgusting tbh, as that's effectively what you're doing. It amounts to "we can't be sure that NK won't act completely stupidly and seal their own fate so we have to do something completely stupid and invade them before they get the chance." It's an action built on fear, fear which is almost completely groundless. Whatever you say and whatever rhetoric you throw about, NK is still governed by rational actors with their own self-preservation at heart, and you are effectively ignoring this.
"Rational" and "irrational" simply terms that refer to the outcome of a course of action rather than literally calling them stupid. Making a "rational" choice would lead to the best outcome for the country, making an "irrational" choice would lead to a worse outcome. For the past five years North Korea played a game of brinksmanship in order to extract concessions from the West, they've goaded the international world with the threat of testing nuclear weapons and the world has offered them greater incentives to stop. By actually testing a weapon they've made an "irrational choice", North Korea has gained a deterrent against invasion but they already had this. Many of the incentives that were on the table are now out of the question and the country will remain in a bad state with sanctions in place. In addition there are going to be many people in positions of power who will think like Nodrog does, they'll see North Korea with a nuclear weapon and know that they're developing a delivery system, they believe this isn't desirable and will push to stop them now rather than later. North Korea in my opinion is now in a worse position than it would have been had they accepted the incentives and stopped development of nuclear weapons as Libya did. It has now lost economic incentives to stop and possibly exposed itself to retaliation from the international world, I would argue this was an "irrational" choice.

My argument is about precedent. Surely a country would always choose a "rational" course of action that would deliver the best outcome ? North Korea in my view has set a precedent that it won't do this or at least that it was a different concept of the best outcome than I do. They can no longer be relied upon to act as I would expect them to act.

You're assuming that the only thing that North Korea will do is launch a nuclear strike against the US or Japan, this would bring about it's own destruction, you're right this is unlikely it would be the ultimate "irrational" choice but what other "irrational" choices exist ? Well the one I think that people should be most worried about would be proliferation of nuclear weapons, if for example an Al-Qaeda cell approach the French government about obtaining a nuclear weapon to blow up London the French government would respond "rationally", they'd calculate that the money they'd obtain from the cell would not be able to outweigh the damage done to France diplomatically and in terms of the war that followed and arrest the cell, the "rational" course of action. If a cell approached North Korea and asked the same question, baring in mind the course of action they've just taken do you think North Korea would choose the "rational" option ? These courses of action are not just limited to nuclear issues, they also have an a knock on effect for conventional issues, could possessing a nuclear weapon embolden conventional actions short of all out war, again something I would deem an "irrational" course of action, again I think they could. Another would be in terms of sanctions, the "rational" course of action would be at least to co-operate a little to ease sanctions and stop people starving to death again having a nuclear weapon changes the equation somewhat and makes it more likely that North Korea will choose the "irrational" option and leave people dying.

The point I was trying to make rather than disgustingly belittle North Korea who are clearly going to launch an all out nuclear strike on us is that North Korea is very unpredictable and them possessing nuclear weapons is quite a worrying problem. If they’re willing to make the sorts of choices they have recently which I guess you can write off to belligerent foreign policy what other choices are they also willing to belligerently make ?
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 16:28   #36
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
This is true and I too am ignorant about the consequences of such actions. I think people would be expecting casualities in the hundreds of thousands however, with millions of refugees. That might be a price worth paying but I'm not sure agree.
Well its really a case of weighing up the alternatives. Allowing the DPRK to solidify its hold on the region is just going to condemn another few generations of north koreans to grow up in slavery, so you really have to balance out the cost of a few hundred thousand causalties now versus allowing a dictatorship to continue unchallenged, with the effect that is going to have on both the people living in that country, and the rest of the world. When the alternative is being forced to live in North Korea, the prospect of dying doesnt sound particularly bad to me anyway.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 16:43   #37
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hicks
"Rational" and "irrational" simply terms that refer to the outcome of a course of action rather than literally calling them stupid. Making a "rational" choice would lead to the best outcome for the country, making an "irrational" choice would lead to a worse outcome. For the past five years North Korea played a game of brinksmanship in order to extract concessions from the West, they've goaded the international world with the threat of testing nuclear weapons and the world has offered them greater incentives to stop. By actually testing a weapon they've made an "irrational choice", North Korea has gained a deterrent against invasion but they already had this. Many of the incentives that were on the table are now out of the question and the country will remain in a bad state with sanctions in place. In addition there are going to be many people in positions of power who will think like Nodrog does, they'll see North Korea with a nuclear weapon and know that they're developing a delivery system, they believe this isn't desirable and will push to stop them now rather than later. North Korea in my opinion is now in a worse position than it would have been had they accepted the incentives and stopped development of nuclear weapons as Libya did. It has now lost economic incentives to stop and possibly exposed itself to retaliation from the international world, I would argue this was an "irrational" choice.
The problem here is you are considering NK as a single entity with a single aim. The only people who actually make these decisions in NK are the ones in power, Kim Jong Il and whoever helps him run the country. Their aims are very different from the aims of the country as a whole, it would be better for the country if it had followed similar policies to SK, democratic policies dictated by the people (vaguely) to strengthen their economy and raise their living standards.

The actual aims of the people in charge of NK are very different though, they seem to be pretty much centred around maintaining their own power. This is done through building a powerful, loyal military in order to keep its own citizens in check, and a concentrated, constant stream of propaganda designed to make their population believe they are in the right and the current regime is the correct one for the country. This is clearly a policy which the Govt of NK has been following for some time.

You can explain the creation of nuclear weapons the same way. Once they had subdued their population effectively (and it is very effectively subdued), then the greatest threat to their power comes from outside, other states. The best way to ensure that you are not invaded by other states and have your regime changed is the creation of nuclear weapons, in their eyes. This may be slightly paranoid, and if the rest of the world does end up invading NK then they would have been wrong. The fact that this was the motivation for it however, makes it completely rational. Furthermore, if you accept that the main aim of NK is the contined governance of NK by the same people, then the chances of them using nuclear weapons is effectively 0.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hicks
My argument is about precedent. Surely a country would always choose a "rational" course of action that would deliver the best outcome ? North Korea in my view has set a precedent that it won't do this or at least that it was a different concept of the best outcome than I do. They can no longer be relied upon to act as I would expect them to act.
As I said above, the only reason it seems irrational to you is because you were assuming that the goal was the best thing to do for their citizens, whereas the goal is simply to hang onto power at any price.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hicks
You're assuming that the only thing that North Korea will do is launch a nuclear strike against the US or Japan, this would bring about it's own destruction, you're right this is unlikely it would be the ultimate "irrational" choice but what other "irrational" choices exist ? Well the one I think that people should be most worried about would be proliferation of nuclear weapons, if for example an Al-Qaeda cell approach the French government about obtaining a nuclear weapon to blow up London the French government would respond "rationally", they'd calculate that the money they'd obtain from the cell would not be able to outweigh the damage done to France diplomatically and in terms of the war that followed and arrest the cell, the "rational" course of action. If a cell approached North Korea and asked the same question, baring in mind the course of action they've just taken do you think North Korea would choose the "rational" option ? These courses of action are not just limited to nuclear issues, they also have an a knock on effect for conventional issues, could possessing a nuclear weapon embolden conventional actions short of all out war, again something I would deem an "irrational" course of action, again I think they could. Another would be in terms of sanctions, the "rational" course of action would be at least to co-operate a little to ease sanctions and stop people starving to death again having a nuclear weapon changes the equation somewhat and makes it more likely that North Korea will choose the "irrational" option and leave people dying.
I do agree that by far the greatest danger is that these weapons will somehow get into the hands of terrorists who use them against a civilian population. It seems to me also, to be a vaguely plausible scenario. I went over some reasons why I find it less likely than you seem to earlier but I will reiterate them here.

International terrorism as an entity is blown out of all proportion by the media and the government. The level of threat we actually experience is far lower than we are led to believe. Even reputable news sources like the BBC concentrate a lot of their reporting on terror when it occurs, even though the actual direct impact that it has on people's lives is negligible. Notice I said direct impact here, because the indirect actions that our governments take in order to curb the perceived threat is actually a very real threat to our way of life. Not to mention the ways of life of all the people who end up getting killed when the west goes on a crusade. The idea is that many Governments in the Western world are creating a climate of fear in order to make their societies more cohesive. It's a reaction to the 60s and has been the policy of Neo-conservatives in America since at least the 80s when the same thing was done with the perceived soviet threat and is now being replaced by the fear of terrorism. I have gone off the point somewhat I realise, but I hope I acheived my aim of explaining that the entire premise of a terrorist group being organised enough, rich enough, and evil enough to use a nuclear weapon is less likely than most people (including you) have been led to believe.

Here of course I have to make a judgement call, my judgement tells me that the risk of a terrorist group using a weapon isn't as bad an outcome as the definite chaos and death (and now possibly genocide, since they have the bomb) which would be caused by any kind of strike against North Korea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hicks
The point I was trying to make rather than disgustingly belittle North Korea who are clearly going to launch an all out nuclear strike on us is that North Korea is very unpredictable and them possessing nuclear weapons is quite a worrying problem. If they’re willing to make the sorts of choices they have recently which I guess you can write off to belligerent foreign policy what other choices are they also willing to belligerently make ?
To conclude, I believe that once the motivation for NKs actions is recognised simply as keeping the current people in power, in power, then the possibility of aggressive use of nuclear weapons becomes a non-issue. The only choice they could make which could possibly have terrible consequences is giving such a weapon to a terrorist group willing to use it against a civilian target. This is possible, but less likely than it seems because much of the terrorist threat we are thinking of simply doesn't exist. If I believed everything the news and the Government told me about terrorism then I would probably be on your side on this argument, but as I know much of it to be exaggerated, distorted, or completely false, I'm not.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 16:46   #38
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
When the alternative is being forced to live in North Korea, the prospect of dying doesnt sound particularly bad to me anyway.
It wouldn't if you'd been brought up to believe that your country was true and right and the best and whatever the **** else theyre brought up to believe. Who are you to blow apart their dream? You heartless bastard.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 16:52   #39
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

North Korea has a bomb.

North Korea is extremely poor and has always thought that the way to get things is through intimidation and not through building up their economy.

South Korea has built up a rather nice economy and has a lot of good stuff that North Korea would like to have.

The next threat will come against South Korea. The US isn't going to pour troops into South Korea as they did in the past and there really isn't much to stop the North Koreans from rolling up the south. Who would stop them? Certainly not China. Oh the French and Russians might send a strongly worded message but I wouldn't expect anyone to risk nuclear war over South Korea.

Something that is interesting to me is that there are many who are in favor of gun control who take a so what attitude toward a mad man with a nuclear device at his command.

Lastly, the real threat is that the North Koreans will sell nuclear weapos to other, even less stable governments or groups who would NOT hesitate to use them.

If Al-Q had a nuclear device, does anyone doubt they would find a place to use it?

My opinion: North Korea with nuclear weapons = a very, very bad thing.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 17:06   #40
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by dda
there really isn't much to stop the North Koreans from rolling down up the south.
Even ignoring potential American intervention, the border is insanely militarised (on both sides). Either side would be bathing in blood before they got far. I doubt the North Korean economy could support an army fighting an offensive war like that in any case.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 17:14   #41
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Even ignoring potential American intervention, the border is insanely militarised (on both sides). Either side would be bathing in blood before they got far. I doubt the North Korean economy could support an army fighting an offensive war like that in any case.
I really don't see the US intervening in the eventuality of a North Korean attack, except to pull our troops out. I don't know what we would intervene with at any rate.

As to the NK economy, it is entirely based on their military and Kim doesn't give a tinkers damn about his people. He would, on the other hand, love to have control of SK.

He is a major problem and with nukes he is even more of a problem.

His idea of diplomacy is to threaten and attempt to extort. It worked will with the Clinton administration and has done him no harm since. Additional threats will be forthcoming and just like in Civilization II the warning that his warning are "backed with nuclear weapons" will also be part of the rhetoric.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 17:17   #42
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
The problem here is you are considering NK as a single entity with a single aim. The only people who actually make these decisions in NK are the ones in power, Kim Jong Il and whoever helps him run the country. Their aims are very different from the aims of the country as a whole, it would be better for the country if it had followed similar policies to SK, democratic policies dictated by the people (vaguely) to strengthen their economy and raise their living standards.

The actual aims of the people in charge of NK are very different though, they seem to be pretty much centred around maintaining their own power. This is done through building a powerful, loyal military in order to keep its own citizens in check, and a concentrated, constant stream of propaganda designed to make their population believe they are in the right and the current regime is the correct one for the country. This is clearly a policy which the Govt of NK has been following for some time.

You can explain the creation of nuclear weapons the same way. Once they had subdued their population effectively (and it is very effectively subdued), then the greatest threat to their power comes from outside, other states. The best way to ensure that you are not invaded by other states and have your regime changed is the creation of nuclear weapons, in their eyes. This may be slightly paranoid, and if the rest of the world does end up invading NK then they would have been wrong. The fact that this was the motivation for it however, makes it completely rational. Furthermore, if you accept that the main aim of NK is the contined governance of NK by the same people, then the chances of them using nuclear weapons is effectively 0.

As I said above, the only reason it seems irrational to you is because you were assuming that the goal was the best thing to do for their citizens, whereas the goal is simply to hang onto power at any price.
I didn't discount the fact that they're only motivation would be to stay in power however if anything testing a nuclear weapon actually makes their position more unstable.

Quote:
In addition there are going to be many people in positions of power who will think like Nodrog does, they'll see North Korea with a nuclear weapon and know that they're developing a delivery system, they believe this isn't desirable and will push to stop them now rather than later. North Korea in my opinion is now in a worse position than it would have been had they accepted the incentives and stopped development of nuclear weapons as Libya did.
The world was already treating North Korea as if they had a nuclear weapon and as mentioned earlier they already have all the deterrent to stay in power that they need. In addition their proximity to China effectively ruled out any military action. While they're right to feel threatened by the US troops stationed in Korea and Japan and by the overturns of the current administration by testing a nuclear weapon they've given far more of a pretext to those who would want military action against them. If they'd chosen to co-operate they would have been able to maintain adequate deterrent, seen sanctions reduced and aid start again. Then they could have gone to the happy process of siphoning it all off towards the military.Their posistion is no more secure now than yesterday, if anything it's less secure.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
I do agree that by far the greatest danger is that these weapons will somehow get into the hands of terrorists who use them against a civilian population. It seems to me also, to be a vaguely plausible scenario. I went over some reasons why I find it less likely than you seem to earlier but I will reiterate them here.

International terrorism as an entity is blown out of all proportion by the media and the government. The level of threat we actually experience is far lower than we are led to believe. Even reputable news sources like the BBC concentrate a lot of their reporting on terror when it occurs, even though the actual direct impact that it has on people's lives is negligible. Notice I said direct impact here, because the indirect actions that our governments take in order to curb the perceived threat is actually a very real threat to our way of life. Not to mention the ways of life of all the people who end up getting killed when the west goes on a crusade. The idea is that many Governments in the Western world are creating a climate of fear in order to make their societies more cohesive. It's a reaction to the 60s and has been the policy of Neo-conservatives in America since at least the 80s when the same thing was done with the perceived soviet threat and is now being replaced by the fear of terrorism. I have gone off the point somewhat I realise, but I hope I acheived my aim of explaining that the entire premise of a terrorist group being organised enough, rich enough, and evil enough to use a nuclear weapon is less likely than most people (including you) have been led to believe.
While I've always been one to rail against the idea of Al-Qaeda being a well organised movement, taking a position at the opposite end of the spectrum is equally silly. Honestly both our sources are the mainstream media so I'm not going to make any wild claims about terrorist funding or organisational capacity. Do I think they have the funds to obtain a nuclear weapon, yes, while terrorist funding is one of the few areas where there has been any success post 9/11 I still believe there are more than enough people with more than enough money to buy a bomb or the knowledge to create one. I think the more likely route of proliferation would be from North Korea to another state and then than state to a more nefarious group. Do I think there are organisations capable of delivering a bomb, again I have no idea though I can't imagine it's super hard to do.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 17:24   #43
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by dda
I really don't see the US intervening in the eventuality of a North Korean attack, except to pull our troops out. I don't know what we would intervene with at any rate.

As to the NK economy, it is entirely based on their military and Kim doesn't give a tinkers damn about his people. He would, on the other hand, love to have control of SK.

He is a major problem and with nukes he is even more of a problem.

His idea of diplomacy is to threaten and attempt to extort. It worked will with the Clinton administration and has done him no harm since. Additional threats will be forthcoming and just like in Civilization II the warning that his warning are "backed with nuclear weapons" will also be part of the rhetoric.
Ghandi and his nuclear weapons always used to and try and push my around ! Doesn't the South have a far better military than the North now ? I thought most of what the North had was old Soviet equiptment, the only reason that it's such a threat to Seoul is the proximity to the border.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 17:40   #44
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Hicks
I didn't discount the fact that they're only motivation would be to stay in power however if anything testing a nuclear weapon actually makes their position more unstable.
All that means is that they were wrong, but it's debateable anyway and doesn't really matter.

The fact remains that if you accept that NK acts from that position there is no way they would launch an aggressive nuclear strike.

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Originally Posted by Hicks
The world was already treating North Korea as if they had a nuclear weapon and as mentioned earlier they already have all the deterrent to stay in power that they need. In addition their proximity to China effectively ruled out any military action. While they're right to feel threatened by the US troops stationed in Korea and Japan and by the overturns of the current administration by testing a nuclear weapon they've given far more of a pretext to those who would want military action against them. If they'd chosen to co-operate they would have been able to maintain adequate deterrent, seen sanctions reduced and aid start again. Then they could have gone to the happy process of siphoning it all off towards the military.Their posistion is no more secure now than yesterday, if anything it's less secure.
It's secure because they have nukes so the military losses sustained by anyone enacting a regime change in NK would be huge. It's not complicated. In terms of raw power they took a huge step up today, and power = security. Even if you don't agree with that assessment you can be damn sure that the NK leadership do, otherwise they wouldn't have acted as they did.

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Originally Posted by Hicks
While I've always been one to rail against the idea of Al-Qaeda being a well organised movement, taking a position at the opposite end of the spectrum is equally silly. Honestly both our sources are the mainstream media so I'm not going to make any wild claims about terrorist funding or organisational capacity. Do I think they have the funds to obtain a nuclear weapon, yes, while terrorist funding is one of the few areas where there has been any success post 9/11 I still believe there are more than enough people with more than enough money to buy a bomb or the knowledge to create one. I think the more likely route of proliferation would be from North Korea to another state and then than state to a more nefarious group. Do I think there are organisations capable of delivering a bomb, again I have no idea though I can't imagine it's super hard to do.
What makes you think my source is the mainstream media? I was saying that it was the media which was perpetuating the myths.

I don't believe that to be the case basically. Are you saying that the Government and media don't distort the facts here? I don't know from exactly what position you can be arguing from if you don't challenge this assertion:

That we are fed spin about the terrorist threat by the Government and the media so that we are more afraid of it and a more cohesive society as a consequence.

Thats the basic neo-con ideology on the subject as far as im aware and they are currently controlling the Whitehouse which is instrumental in perpetuating said myths.

If you don't challenge this and then argue from a position of vague beliefs while admitting that the mainstream media is your only source, then your argument holds no water.

My views on this have come from the mainstream media, after a fashion. It was a BBC documentary someone linked to from another forum a couple of weeks ago. I admit that I'm forming my opinions* very quickly to be speaking with such confidence now. But all I ask is that if you do challenge this assertion, you watch the video.

It's actually 3 one hour documentaries, this is part of it which relates directly to what I mean about the terrorist threat being smaller than it is though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQJ8x57o9ro

The whole thing is called "The power of nightmares" though, you can search youtube or whatever and find the whole thing if you want. I haven't studied how reliable a source it is in much detail, but it is a BBC documentary. I realise it may seem silly to cite a BBC documentary as part of an argument that the media is systematically misleading the public. If you watch the whole thing I imagine it seems less crackpotty than if you just watch the ten minute segment I linked to.

Anyway, enough of that. The point was, you can't not refute the claim that you are being fed a lie by the media and government, admit you have no other sources, and then put forward your argument as vague beliefs without any actual basis except your own supposition.

*or solidifying really, I always knew there was something very not right going on, this just fleshed out the details for me

edit: just thought id mention that im going to a friends house now so probably won't be able to reply cogently until tomorrow morning at the earliest, and I may not feel like it tomorrow. So bye!
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 17:57   #45
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Snurx
I'm firmly against nuclear weapons (or war where it's state against state anyway) but if countries like Pakistan, USA, and Israel to name a few have them, then why should not North Korea? They are all run by potential users, and I don't take sides in the good vs bad, axis of evil shit.
.

If you had stuck with just Israel and Pakistan you might have been able to construct some sort of reasoned argument.

You do remember who invented nuclear weapons right?

Who was an existing nuclear power prior to signing the NPT ?
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 18:21   #46
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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Originally Posted by Deepflow
All that means is that they were wrong, but it's debateable anyway and doesn't really matter.

The fact remains that if you accept that NK acts from that position there is no way they would launch an aggressive nuclear strike. .
I don't think I ever said that they intended to launch an aggressive nuclear strike, I said that they're unpredictable and are likely to undertake other unpredictable actions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
It's secure because they have nukes so the military losses sustained by anyone enacting a regime change in NK would be huge. It's not complicated. In terms of raw power they took a huge step up today, and power = security. Even if you don't agree with that assessment you can be damn sure that the NK leadership do, otherwise they wouldn't have acted as they did.
I doubt it, the reports I read this morning were that the bomb they tested was equivalent to 5,000 tons of TNT that's 1/3 of a Hiroshima bomb and their only method of delivery is from a plane, devastating in the middle of a city but in terms of military losses hardly devastating (though enough to grease hawks who call for war into action). Their conventional deterrent remains far more potent.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
What makes you think my source is the mainstream media? I was saying that it was the media which was perpetuating the myths.
I'm unaware what you do for a living, are you in Vermillion's old line of work ? If you are then accept my apologies you're likely far more informed than the rest of us but if your sources are the mainstream media (I'd term anything available freely as mainstream) then I don't think you're sources are better than anyone else’s. Very few people can actually give you accurate information about the state of the terrorist threat, the rest of us are speculating based on what we're told.

Every piece of information we read, we make a judgement on, whether we believe it or whether to disregard it as propaganda. I don't believe that we face an organised threat on anything like the scale that's made out. I do believe we face a threat from a small number of groups of like minded individuals some of which have the funding and ability to carry out attacks. I don't think it's too hard to imagine that most of these groups would like to acquire a nuclear weapon, it's the Holy Grail. I think North Korea having nuclear weapons makes this more likely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
I don't believe that to be the case basically. Are you saying that the Government and media don't distort the facts here? I don't know from exactly what position you can be arguing from if you don't challenge this assertion

That we are fed spin about the terrorist threat by the Government and the media so that we are more afraid of it and a more cohesive society as a consequence.
Where did even imply that ? I said that since our sources are likely to be similar I doubt either of us can make claims confidently. Of course the media and the government distort what we're told although I'm not sure that this has created a more cohesive society as a result.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
The whole thing is called "The power of nightmares" though, you can search youtube or whatever and find the whole thing if you want. I haven't studied how reliable a source it is in much detail, but it is a BBC documentary. I realise it may seem silly to cite a BBC documentary as part of an argument that the media is systematically misleading the public. If you watch the whole thing I imagine it seems less crackpotty than if you just watch the ten minute segment I linked to.
I actually watched it when it was on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
Anyway, enough of that. The point was, you can't not refute the claim that you are being fed a lie by the media and government, admit you have no other sources, and then put forward your argument as vague beliefs without any actual basis except your own supposition.
So I can't do the same thing as you ? Refuting my claim that there's a greater danger of nuclear weapons getting into the wrong hands with no sources and then put forward your argument as vague beliefs without any actual basis other except your own supposition. You realise how ridiculous this argument is ? We're going round in circles, as I said all most of us can do is look at the information we're presented with and see what we agree with and what we don't, most of what we are told isn't correct.

I've stated that I think North Korea are unpredictable and "irrational", I think they're unlikely to launch a nuclear strike but I think they are now more likely to try to bully their neighbours and the international community at large. I think because they now have their words backed with nuclear weapons they're more likely to undertake conventional provocative actions. I think it's likely that nuclear technology will proliferate to other states some of which may end up in the hands of terrorists. While I think the majority of these terrorists sit in caves talking the talk a small number are actually capable of doing the business and are not people you want these sort of things to get to. That's my take from reading the same sources as you.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 18:47   #47
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

I'm not overly worried. Nobody lives forever. Not even Kim Jong-Il.
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 18:55   #48
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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I'm not overly worried. Nobody lives forever. Not even Kim Jong-Il.
The real question is "what effect is this going to have on passports?"
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 18:59   #49
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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The real question is "what effect is this going to have on passports?"

and the answer is "nothing" \o/
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Unread 9 Oct 2006, 19:05   #50
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Re: NK performs successful nuclear weapon test; World: "uh oh"

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