I'm sure its me being stupid...

[KingGnome]

but I keep getting different results to a real battle when working out what should have happened
does anyone see what I'm doing wrong?
the battle calc gives the (same) wrong answer too

battle report:

           Att       Def
Units	    T   L B   T   L   B 
Spider	    300 0 300 144 0   0
Beetle	    0	0 0   508 0   0
Scarab	    200 0 200 100 0   76
Roach	    0	0 0   61  0   47
Black Widow 0	0 0   120 0   32
Astro Pod   100 0 100 30  0   11
Total	    600 0 600 963 0   166

init by init...
attackers: 300 spider, 200 scarab, 100 pod
defenders: 144 spider, 508 beetle, 100 scarab, 61 roach, 120 widow, 30 pods

SPIDERS
attacking spiders: 300 guns, shooting at 100 scarab + 61 roach
186 guns at scarabs, which have 55% empr, so 83 scarabs stunned
114 guns at roaches, which have 65% empr, so 39 roaches stunned

defending spiders: 144 guns, shooting at 200 scarab
144 guns at scarab, which have 55% empr, so 64 scarabs stunned

attackers: 300 spider, 136(+64) scarab, 100 pod
defenders: 144 spider, 508 beetle, 17(+83) scarab, 22(+39) roach, 120 widow, 30 pods

SCARAB:
attacking scarabs: 136 guns, shooting at 120 widow + 30 pods
108 guns at widows, which have 70% empr, so 32 widows stunned
28 guns at pods, which have 55% empr, so 12 pods stunned

defending scarabs: 17 guns, shooting at 100 pods
17 guns at pods, which have 55% empr, so 7 pods stunned

attackers: 300 spider, 136(+64) scarab, 93(+7) pod
defenders: 144 spider, 508 beetle, 17(+83) scarab, 22(+39) roach, 88(+32) widow, 18(+12) pods

ROACH:
defending roaches: no targets

BLACK WIDOW:
defending widows: T1: 88*5=440 guns, shooting at 136 scarab
440 guns at scarabs, which have 55% empr, so 198 stunned
-- only 136 around, which would take 303 shots
136 shots left

defending widows: T2: 136 guns, shooting at 80 pods
136 guns at pods, which have 55% empr, so 61 pods stunned

attackers: 300 spider, 0(+200) scarab, 32(+68) pod
defenders: 144 spider, 508 beetle, 17(+83) scarab, 22(+39) roach, 88(+32) widow, 18(+12) pods

BEETLES:
defending beetles: 508*3=1524 guns, shooting at 300 spider
1524 guns at spiders, which have 65% empr, so 533 are stunned
-- only 300 around, which would take 858 shots
666 shots left over

using stats from:
http://main.planetarion.com/manual/stats.php

as a thought, is the widow targetting FR then CO?

[hyfe]

calcs says 68 pods frozen. Reality was 100 frozen....

isn't things like these supposed to happen once a while?

[KingGnome]

if it was 75 pods stunned in reality, I'd agree with you and point to the disclaimer on bcalc.com... but when its half again, I think the odds are incredibly slim that that happened

attacker would have had to have been unlucky with their spiders (so there were more defending scarabs) and scarabs (so there were more defending BW)
likewise, defender would have had to have been really quite lucky with their scarabs and bw to freeze 50% more pods... ... ...

with say 10% luck...
186 guns at scarabs, which have 55% empr, so 83 scarabs stunned
becomes
167 guns at scarabs, which have 55% empr, so 75 scarabs stunned

Lets give even more luck and say there are 27 scarabs left to freeze pods...
27+10% = 30 guns, stunning 13 pods


108 guns at widows, which have 70% empr, so 32 widows stunned
with luck:
95 guns at widows, which have 70% empr, so 28 widows..

say 5 extra widows
defending widows: T2: 136+5*5=161 guns, shooting at 75 pods
161 guns at pods, which have 55% empr, so 72.5 pods stunned

so, if the defender had a 10% luck "weighting" over the board, he almost freezes everything...

Now, how realistic is that?

[MAdnRisKy]

It's not just unlucky, it's UNFAIR DAMNIT!!!!! (it was you right?)

[Gayle29uk]

Originally posted by KingGnome
if it was 75 pods stunned in reality, I'd agree with you and point to the disclaimer on bcalc.com... but when its half again, I think the odds are incredibly slim that that happened

Don't forget that mathematical odds not only tell you how unlikely something is to happen they also tell you exactly how likely it is as well.

[Atamur]

This is just bad (or good, depending on which side you're on) luck.

We know from the battle report that attacker stunned 76 scarabs and 32 black widows. So defender's 144 spiders, 24 scarabs and 88 black widows stunned 200 scarabs and 100 pods.

144 + 24 + 88*5 = 608

pods and scarabs have 55% emp resist.

probability for 608 shots to score at least 300 hits at .45 probability is 1.75%. So not very likely but perfectly within reason.

[edit]the theory that black widows target FR-CO would not explain this. It really doesn't matter in what order pods and scarabs got stunned as they got all stunned.[/edit]

[Tactitus]

Another possibility is the EMP resistance on one or more units got tweaked and never made it into the manual. :eek: If pod EMP resistance were actually a bit lower and/or widow EMP resistance a little higher and/or...

The number of defending pods frozen was about what would have been expected, so perhaps pod EMP resistance is as advertised. What if Widow EMP resistance were 75 instead of 70? (my calcing-by-hand skills are too rusty).

Well, just a thought...

[Prince]

Originally posted by Tactitus
Another possibility is the EMP resistance on one or more units got tweaked and never made it into the manual. :eek: If pod EMP resistance were actually a bit lower and/or widow EMP resistance a little higher and/or...

The number of defending pods frozen was about what would have been expected, so perhaps pod EMP resistance is as advertised. What if Widow EMP resistance were 75 instead of 70? (my calcing-by-hand skills are too rusty).

Well, just a thought...

Manual says bw = emp res of 70
Manual says pods = emp res of 55

Stats Admin says bw = emp res of 70
Stats Admin says pods = emp res of 55

Intresting idea but not right
I'd blame fate and luck myself

[Tactitus]

Originally posted by Prince
Manual says bw = emp res of 70
Manual says pods = emp res of 55

Stats Admin says bw = emp res of 70
Stats Admin says pods = emp res of 55

Who/What is a Stats Admin? And does he/she/it have access to the code?

Sorry, but after so many rounds of Spinner insisting that the 'final' stats were correct--when they clearly weren't, I just have a bad case of skepticism. :/

[Ultimate Newbie]

Originally posted by Tactitus
Sorry, but after so many rounds of Spinner insisting that the 'final' stats were correct--when they clearly weren't, I just have a bad case of skepticism. :/

heh, i share that skepticisim...


anyway, why do people keep mentioning this 'luck' factor - if the same formula that is used to figure out the matricies is the smae that is used in the game (which it should be), then how come there are variations?

When i do my own matrix caluclations, i sure as hell dont do the same calculation 40 000 times to find the same number, so i dont comprehend how 'lcuk' can play a part in modern combat formula.

unless there was a random variable added... but i dont remebermber that ever being announced.
[Edit]: Though tbh it wouldnt be the first time that something hasnt been announced that has changed the game significatnly...

[KingGnome]

Originally posted by Ultimate Newbie
anyway, why do people keep mentioning this 'luck' factor - if the same formula that is used to figure out the matricies is the smae that is used in the game (which it should be), then how come there are variations?

Its not...

in game, each gun fires seperately, with (I presume) a random number generated each time we have a percentage chance
i.e. for normal ships, the chance-to-hit (25-ag+wpsd) is compared to a random number from 1 to 100

For simplicity, matricies and the bcalc use formula which give an "average" output - i.e. over a large number of guns, chance-to-hit shots will hit their target - but that only holds true for the majority of combats, but its possible that the "luck" of the random numbers always goes your way in one battle :P

[Tactitus]

Originally posted by KingGnome
For simplicity, matricies and the bcalc use formula which give an "average" output - i.e. over a large number of guns, chance-to-hit shots will hit their target - but that only holds true for the majority of combats, but its possible that the "luck" of the random numbers always goes your way in one battle :P

Possible--but not probable for any significant number of shots. The probabilty of a single EMP shot freezing an Astro Pod is 45%. The probability of two EMP shots each freezing a pod is 20%. With 10 shots, the probability of every one freezing a pod is down to .03%. With 100 shots--well, it's just not going to happen, even in a game with thousands of combats a day.

[Prince]

Originally posted by Tactitus
Who/What is a Stats Admin? And does he/she/it have access to the code?

Sorry, but after so many rounds of Spinner insisting that the 'final' stats were correct--when they clearly weren't, I just have a bad case of skepticism. :/

I assumed being part of beta you'd of known sorry


Stats Admin is the back end
its the db
its the game stats
its whats in the game

Its is not wrong Manual is not wrong

Can you guys accept random bad luck?

[The_Fish]

no.

[hyfe]

Originally posted by Prince


Can you guys accept random bad luck?

Yes; we can. But 'we' have been right before; and from my point of view you're just another creator fervently saying the stats are correct .. and given our past experience with these situations.. (And yes; we're all too aware of that variations occur, its just that some of them are *highly* unlikely) ...

What would be interesting however, is to get to know the stealing formula; or atleast the reasoning for keeping it secret? Keeping things secret only benefits the organized who have the numbers to work out whats good; and lessens our ability to do good choices (and learning by experience for an individiual doesn't work; you've already built those ships and the number of battles are too small )

[hAl]

I actually stole a pegasus without losing a stealing ship (or any ship for that matter).

In beta I stole a pod from soemone with only one pod and he did not lose any pods. So his one pod became two. That was rather amazing as well.

The person that can hand me the stealing formula is welcome.

hAl