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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:30   #1
Dante Hicks
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Football Geeks Advice Needed

OK, I've semi-legally procurred £750 from my work on a temporary basis. I am utterly broke until next pay-day.

The logical thing to do, therefore, is to bet the £750 on something and hope for the best. I've decided on football as I've got a vague idea of what's going on. If I win, I return the money and hope no-one notices. If I lose, then prison.

Anyone got any advice for matches in the next few days? (preferably before Saturday). I'd rather not have odds over 2 or 3 to 1 (i.e. no long shots).

p.s. This is not a joke, I genuinely am looking for any random advice/tips.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:33   #2
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

do you think they will let you browse the forums in prison ?
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:34   #3
Dante Hicks
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

I doubt it, no.

Where the hell is Jakiri when you need him?
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:36   #4
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I doubt it, no.

Where the hell is Jakiri when you need him?
Just in from work, and playing BG2.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:38   #5
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

coventry to beat colchester in cup?
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:39   #6
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

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coventry to beat colchester in cup?
maybe millwall to beat telford
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:43   #7
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Im on a losing streak that has to end sometime. £65 down in a week. huzzah. Arsenal are 5/4 to beat middlesborough tommorow night. Steve Davis is 6/4 underdog to beat Ken Doherty (Davis just got to the final of the Welsh open and lost on the final frame to Ronnie O'Sullivan). Dundee are 13/8 to beat livingston at home (Livingston just tumbled into administration, Dundee are already in administration but still have the third best keeper and the third best striker in the league)

Id (well, im going to) put about £10-£20 on each of those. Best i can offer you im afraid
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:43   #8
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

I would imagine Middlesbrough will beat Arsenal as I don't expect Arsenal to put out anywhere near a full strength team as they don't care about the league cup while for Middlesbrough it is their only way into Europe this year. That games tomorrow


Hibernian v Rangers on Thursday should be pretty safe for a Rangers win even though they aren't playing their best.

They are the only games before Saturday I am confident about.

On Saturday then;
Aston Villa v Leeds United should result in a home win for Villa and Newcastle v Leicester City should also be a home win for Newcastle.

I would expect Cardiff to beat Derby County in Div 1 but I am a bit biased there. Sheff Utd v Crystal Palace should be a Sheffield win and Wimbledon v Norwich should be an away win for Norwich.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:43   #9
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Don't bet on any cup matches involving smaller or even clubs. They're too unpredictable, especially ones that have already gone to replay.

Never bet on the 'big' clubs (except maybe Chelsea) in any competition that isn't the Premiership or the Champions League.

Basically, never bet.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:44   #10
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Erm, dude. It's not worth going to prison over.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:45   #11
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by midge5
I would imagine Middlesbrough will lose to Arsenal as I don't expect Arsenal to put out anywhere near a full strength team as they don't care about the league cup while for Middlesbrough it is their only way into Europe this year.That games tomorrow


Hibernian v Rangers on Thursday should be pretty safe for a Rangers win even though they aren't playing their best.

They are the only games before Saturday I am confident about.
Well, ignoring that you said that Arsenal will beat Boro because Arsenal will put out a weak team, I don't think you're making sense.

Scotland wise, it's not good to bet on Rangers at the moment. They're scraping through matches, even the one against the bottom club (at the weekend), and it's possible it'll turn against them shortly.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:47   #12
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leshy
Erm, dude. It's not worth going to prison over.
He knows the score.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:47   #13
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
Well, ignoring that you said that Arsenal will beat Boro because Arsenal will put out a weak team, I don't think you're making sense.

Scotland wise, it's not good to bet on Rangers at the moment. They're scraping through matches, even the one against the bottom club (at the weekend), and it's possible it'll turn against them shortly.

I meant Arsenal will lose heh, will edit that now.

As for Rangers yeah I know they have been scraping through some games but they have a good record against Hibs(knocked them out of the Scottish Cup last month when away) and I reckon they will go through even if it is a narrow win.

If you are betting on other things then Munster v Borders is likely to be a Munster win in the Celtic League on Friday.

Stephen Hendry also to beat Jimmy White in the Masters this week.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:48   #14
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by midge5
I would imagine Middlesbrough will lose to Arsenal as I don't expect Arsenal to put out anywhere near a full strength team as they don't care about the league cup while for Middlesbrough it is their only way into Europe this year.That games tomorrow


Hibernian v Rangers on Thursday should be pretty safe for a Rangers win even though they aren't playing their best.

They are the only games before Saturday I am confident about.

On Saturday then;
Aston Villa v Leeds United should result in a home win for Villa and Newcastle v Leicester City should also be a home win for Newcastle.

I would expect Cardiff to beat Derby County in Div 1 but I am a bit biased there. Sheff Utd v Crystal Palace should be a Sheffield win and Wimbledon v Norwich should be an away win for Norwich.
Do not trust this man.

a/ No one should ever bet on an Aston Villa win. Aston Villa suck. Seriously, they have issues with sucking too much.
b/ Rangers have just won 3 matches in a row 1-0, luckily. They are now going away to Hibs who knocked US (Celtic) out in the last round, and what with the whole Protestant Catholic thing, Hibs will really try and **** over rangers. There is no way that match is a certainty, you underestimate how shit rangers are.
c/ Re-read your boro-arsenal thing, it makes no sense
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:50   #15
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
No one should ever bet on an Aston Villa win. Aston Villa suck. Seriously, they have issues with sucking too much.
Villa have been playing well recently, shockingly so. Leeds have been playing really shit.

He's right on that score, but it's not worth the risk.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 16:52   #16
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Shockingly so indeed. But it goes against everything in my system to bet on villa.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 17:48   #17
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

FA Cup matches that are shockingly taken to a reply almost invariably end with the big team thrashing the small one.

Millwall will beat Telford, but the odds are probably pretty rubbish. I'm not a gambler, so I don't know what the bet on really.

I expect Fulham will beat Everton, but I'd say that is perhaps too big a risk for too small odds.

I'm with midge5 on Villa vs Leeds (sounds the best bet to me), and a bet on Newcastle to beat Leicester sounds pleasant.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 18:07   #18
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
He knows the score.
If he knows the score, why doesn't he bet on the game?

*BOOM TISH*
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 19:44   #19
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

semi-legally?
that really really isnt good dante
like, really.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 20:18   #20
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Rangers have lost lovenkrands, they are playing with capucho and they are throwing de boer in back from injury, too many if's against a strong ambitious youthful hibs side all trying to get a step up somewhere.

Dundee are an excellent bet.

Try putting it all on Dundee imo.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 20:18   #21
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

750 pound on red
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 22:05   #22
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
750 pound on red
I considered that. There's not even the vaguest pretence of the "skill" though is there?

I'll consider Dundee though, thanks Deffeh/Sunday, and everyone else who replied. The cheque won't clear until tommorow anyway, so I'll be considering my options tommorow.
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Unread 2 Feb 2004, 22:15   #23
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Hedge, hedge!

edit: Half on Dundee, half on Villa
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 01:21   #24
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

you're insane.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 01:35   #25
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Why dont you play the stock market and invest it in a high-risk up and coming company?
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 01:53   #26
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

donate it all and live like the poor!
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 02:07   #27
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
750 pound on red
try 20 pounds on red, then if that loses 40 on red, then 80 etc, you cannot lose (well unless you get upto the 750 pounds) because on the 80 you would win 160 and 20 + 40 + 80 = 140 +20 pounds = win.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 02:38   #28
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

The Old Firm

Celtic will rarely if ever lose a home game. Rangers likewise, and this weekend you had both playing poor clubs.

I bet on both and won on both.

youve also missed the African Nations Groups, where all the easy games went according to plan. You could have made back around 80% of the £750 on those.

Need to wait till next weekend now, and bet on Arsenal , Celtic and Morton (check the leagues , youll see why)

Play small odds with big money and youll make plenty.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 02:43   #29
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima

Need to wait till next weekend now, and bet on Arsenal , Celtic and Morton (check the leagues , youll see why)

Play small odds with big money and youll make plenty.
The Arsenal game isn't that certain considering in their last two home games Wolves have beaten Man Utd then drawn with Liverpool and from looking at their results I couldn't see a home defeat in the league for them since August when they lost 4-0 to Charlton which is quite a long time really. There is quite a good chance they will get a draw.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 02:49   #30
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Actually this might be an interesting way to make a few quid.I'll put the 2euros I have left in all the world on Villa,but I KNOW as soon as I do that Leeds will start winning for once.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 02:55   #31
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by midge5
The Arsenal game isn't that certain considering in their last two home games Wolves have beaten Man Utd then drawn with Liverpool and from looking at their results I couldn't see a home defeat in the league for them since August when they lost 4-0 to Charlton which is quite a long time really. There is quite a good chance they will get a draw.
You missed Wolves 1-5 Chelsea (from Sep20 I think) but your point is still valid.
Man Utd thought they only had to turn up to get 3 points, no reason why Arsenal should be any different.

Wolves home form for the last 5 games is W2 D3 L0, identical to Arsenal's last 5 aways.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 02:56   #32
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

high stakes online poker
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 02:56   #33
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Dundee, Everton, Inter Milan, Lazio all to win 200-1

Hehe worth throwing a quid on it
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 02:57   #34
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by nickhall
try 20 pounds on red, then if that loses 40 on red, then 80 etc, you cannot lose (well unless you get upto the 750 pounds) because on the 80 you would win 160 and 20 + 40 + 80 = 140 +20 pounds = win.
this doesnt work
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 03:08   #35
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by nickhall
try 20 pounds on red, then if that loses 40 on red, then 80 etc, you cannot lose (well unless you get upto the 750 pounds) because on the 80 you would win 160 and 20 + 40 + 80 = 140 +20 pounds = win.
I don't know if you're joking or not, but this is a bad strategy.
If you lose five times, that's 20+40+80+160+320=620 pounds. You don't win back the money and the chance of this happening and you losing £620 is (26/50)^5 or about 3.8%, so you have a 96.2% chance of winning £20; the mean average is losing £4.32. You'd be better off gambling the whole lot on a fairly safe bet. It'd be more exciting.

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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 03:12   #36
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

I think the thread title was meant to be "Football geeks; advice needed", and not "Football. Geeks advice needed".
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 03:15   #37
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Exclamation Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by nickhall
try 20 pounds on red, then if that loses 40 on red, then 80 etc, you cannot lose (well unless you get upto the 750 pounds) because on the 80 you would win 160 and 20 + 40 + 80 = 140 +20 pounds = win.
Risking up to 750 pounds for a chance to win 20 = teh lose.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 04:23   #38
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Out of curiosity I decided to see who those who were predicting best in the league 1-X has been running had predicted to win this week.

I first took the top 8 players of the "Another League of Leagues (adjusted)" which was just under half(17 players in the league).

These were:

CoD
Ragnarak
Zharkov
midge5
Stew
JonnyBGood
Lupin
at0mic.c0w

but CoD, Johhny and at0mic haven't predicted anything this week yet so I used the top 3 players from the normal "League of Leagues " who had predicted which added LHC, Apothos and JC to the list.

The tables can be found here.

So using the predictions of Ragnarak, Zharkov, midge5, Stew, Lupin, LHC, JC and Apothos we have:

---League Cup SF L2 3 Feb---

2 wins for Middlesbro vs Arsenal 5 wins and 1 draw

---FA Cup 4th Round 3/4 Feb---

2 wins for Colchester vs Coventry City 6 wins

1 win for Telford vs Millwall 7 wins
6 wins for Fulham vs Everton 0 wins and 2 draws
2 wins for Tottenham vs Man.City 2 wins 4 draws.

---Premiership 7/8 Feb---

7 wins for Aston Villa vs Leeds 1 win
1 win for Bolton vs Liverpool 6 wins and 1 draw
Everton vs Manchester Utd 8 wins
4 wins Middlesbro vs Blackburn 1 win and 3 draws
8 wins for Newcastle vs Leicester 0 wins
2 wins for Southampton vs Fulham 0 wins and 6 draws
5 wins Tottenham vs Portsmouth 1 win and 2 draws
Wolves vs Arsenal 8 wins.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 09:50   #39
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
Why dont you play the stock market and invest it in a high-risk up and coming company?
I need a return within the next fortnight ideally. I haven't stolen the money or anything, but I need it to hand fairly soon.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 09:58   #40
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
Well, ignoring that you said that Arsenal will beat Boro because Arsenal will put out a weak team, I don't think you're making sense.

.

Boro will win against Arsenal based on the fact that they just got Richardinho on a loan.

Arsenal will be resting their bigger stars, not to mention that Boro is one of the better home sides on the premier league
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 10:46   #41
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by I am Idler
Boro will win against Arsenal based on the fact that they just got Richardinho on a loan.
Free transfer actually. They mutually cancelled his contract at (Sao Paolo?)

And they've already got Mendieta and Juninho.... It's just they don't have any strikers. That can score.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 11:40   #42
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

yeah but if you win. you'll be really really REALLY happy.
if you loose you'll probably be sacked and possibly loose your home.

i reckon you could survive until next pay day with no money.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 14:58   #43
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Bet on a Portsmouth away defeat, near certain!
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 19:26   #44
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Im 13/13 on my Ladbrokes.Com account. Yet to lose.

I think the only bets ive made that arent "Safe" are the ones for the Oscars.

LOTR - ROTK for Best Picture
Peter Jackson for Best Director
Charlize Theron for Best Actress
Sean Penn for Best Actor
The Barbarian Invasions for Best Foreign Film.

Anyone care to tell me if they think im wrong on those 5? Bill Murray might beat Sean Penn for best actor, but the Academy LOVES Penn and has wanted to give him an award for ages.

My Current Profit : £5.53p in 1 week.

PS : now 14/14 , as John Higgins beat Graeme Dott last night in the snooker.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 19:38   #45
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Exclamation Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

I bet on politics, but never association football. Several generally uniform and uneducated young men running about a field is much too random to be a sturdy subject for gambling.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 19:51   #46
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
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I bet on politics, but never association football. Several generally uniform and uneducated young men running about a field is much too random to be a sturdy subject for gambling.
And the bets available currently in Politics are?
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 20:42   #47
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Seriously, wtf are you thinking?
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 20:44   #48
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rids
Seriously, wtf are you thinking?
Well, it's a bit more complicated than I've outlined. I basically need money in a short period of time.

It's all blisfully irrelevent though. Even though my Barclays on-line banking says I've got £1k available, only £10 is being put onto any account .

£10 on Dundee it is though.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 21:50   #49
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

Have you not considered a short term learn? Its not too difficult to arrange one inside of a week, I know I was able to borrow 2.5k from Egg within 5 days.
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Unread 3 Feb 2004, 21:52   #50
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Re: Football Geeks Advice Needed

I have utterly exhaused every imaginable line of credit.

No conventional loan company would touch me with a ten foot barge poll.

Pretty much every friend I have is broke, and I don't speak to my family.
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