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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:23   #1
Weeks
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Who reckons GWB will win?

I do. Understand that I don't want him to. But i've just lost all faith in the American people. Watching that documentry on BBC2 about how nightmars are used to control us and a diagram in the Independant on how GWB has most of the support anyway has fulled this.

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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:26   #2
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

He plays to the masses on a crusade of fear over an enemy he created that doesnt have half the capability or weaponry that he claims.

Of course hes going to win.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:26   #3
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Whoever wins we all lose...

There is a lot more wrong with America than just who's 'apparrently' in charge of the country.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:28   #4
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

I hope he wins for the comedy value of it all.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:29   #5
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

who cares? it doesnt make a difference. maybe kerry would sound a little less insane, but he would do more or less the same thing.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:38   #6
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

It doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always wins.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:52   #7
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

George Bush will win.

PPS. Kerry is useing fear-tactics aswell "Vote for me or youll loose Social Security"... yet, he opposed reformation of it. So without reformation. Its going to fail. Kerry for teh win? or no.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:55   #8
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Qdeathstar
PPS. Kerry is useing fear-tactics aswell "Vote for me or youll loose Social Security"... yet, he opposed reformation of it. So without reformation. Its going to fail. Kerry for teh win? or no.
This is the poorest two line argument I've ever seen. How did you manage it?
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:55   #9
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

By not ever getting banned for being in the wrong forums (I'm sure he's from DF3...)
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 00:58   #10
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

the whole problem with liberal democracy is fundamentally people dont care enough.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 01:26   #11
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

i'd laugh if bush would win the popular but loses the electoral vote
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 01:46   #12
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wu_trax
who cares?
Well I care more about this election than next year's UK elections. I do think it will make a difference, no-one could be as bad as Bush and his advisers.
However, my hunch is that he'll win.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 01:48   #13
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

bush'll win. i'm a pessamist

that, and americans seem largely stupid, the responses to the guardian's letter writing (ie, that it was taken at all seriously) only served to promote this view.

then again, most populations* seems largely stupid

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*gd being a worrying trend breaker... what went wrong there?
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 01:52   #14
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Exclamation Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Weeks
I do. Understand that I don't want him to. But i've just lost all faith in the American people. Watching that documentry on BBC2 about how nightmars are used to control us
And you're worried about us?

Perhaps some more tinfoil for that nightmare mind control thing...
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 06:52   #15
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

I suspect Bush will win by about 20 Electoral College votes, but it'll be very tight popular vote wise.

Having said that it depends on the turnout. The media seem to be implying there's going to be a large upsurge in people voting (most important election in decades, etc) but I'm skeptical. It'll increase, but probably only by a relatively small amount.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 07:33   #16
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

actually dante i agree with the media, i think there will be a large upsurge, im still on a bush win though, him winning won't be that bad a thing if you want the mess in iraq and america's current standing around the planet to be pinned to one man rather than the whole country* i don't think iraq will be completely sorted in 4 years but i might have got to the stage where the next president can walk in and sort stuff out. Basically it might be better to let bush stay cop all the flak then let the left back in.

*unless ofc you hold the populous of a country responsible in a democratic system ala that thread i did years ago about how responsible you should be for what your government does.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 09:45   #17
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Weeks
I do.
but hoping kerry will win, although i don't trust that man either.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 10:54   #18
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knight Theamion
i'd laugh if bush would win the popular but loses the electoral vote
I posted the same thing a couple of days ago, but apparently it's unlikely, due to the inbuilt bias towards the Republican Party in the US electoral system.

I trust electoral-vote.com, though and it says that Kerry's going to win. Hurrah!
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 11:57   #19
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

I don't think it really matters enough. No matter who is in charge, people will always be opressed, killed, profited from, and so on. On some small cases, Kerry might be better (Ie he will condem homosexuals but not ban their marriage or something), but overall, one is almost as poo as the other.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 12:37   #20
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nondescript Human
Well I care more about this election than next year's UK elections. I do think it will make a difference, no-one could be as bad as Bush and his advisers.
However, my hunch is that he'll win.
how is it better to have an us-president who does the same thing, but is better at selling it to the people around the world? if anything thats even more dangerous. id rather have the village-idiot from texas for another 4 years. there are fundamental differences between the us and europe, bush just made them surface. a smarter president may be able to hide them again, but in the end it wont change a thing.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 13:18   #21
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Qdeathstar
PPS. Kerry is useing fear-tactics aswell "Vote for me or youll loose Social Security"... yet, he opposed reformation of it. So without reformation. Its going to fail. Kerry for teh win? or no.

This is the poorest two line argument I've ever seen. How did you manage it?
JammyJims Intelligence factor: --3

That wasnt an arguement. It was a statement. :-/ Some people were complaining aobut Bush useing the "fear" of 9/11. I dont personally think that it is a "fear" but instead a real issue that needs to be address. Kerry, on the "other side", used Social Security as a fear tactic saying that if you dont vote for me, your going to loose social security. Like national security, Social Security is a legitimate issue to be considered, and one that does need fixing. The difference here is that both president bush and president kerry have a RECORD on both these issues. While president bush has expanded funding and created laws that will aid in National Security, Senator Kerry either hasnt voted, or has voted AGAINST these issues. Now you can bicker about that all you, saying invasion of privacy, and ignorant use of money. Thats fine then. But what you can argue about is who would be better for social security. And here is why.

President Bush tried to reform Social Security, a system that would allow seniors to control THEIR own money, without the government paying for it. Instead, they would be able to put it into a tax-free IRA, and that money would earn enterests as it matured. Sounds like a great idea. But, President Kerry and the other liberals decided that they werent going to let a "good idea" get through congress, so they blockaded it, and VOTED to keep the old system. Thats right, while Kerry says he wants to adress social security, He voted to keep it the same. Also, he seems to want to keep it the same. HE thinks that growing the economy alone can fix the problem of several hundred baby boomes retiring. But, not supprisingly, he is misinformed. Why vote kerry. I dont know.


PPS/ That was an argument
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 13:24   #22
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Qdeathstar
JammyJims Intelligence factor: --3
Erm...you were responding to JonnyBGood there.


Quote:
He voted to keep it the same.
That's ridiculous. Just because he wasn't reform Social Security doesn't mean he should vote for every single ammendment (whether good or bad).

Quote:
PPS/ That was an argument
Only just.

p.s. This whole "flip flopping" thing is utterly retarded.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 13:50   #23
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

have i missed something? unless i totally misinterpreted what you were saying, bush was in favour of cutting welfare to seniors and giving them tax breaks on their savings (something beneficial only to, surprise surprise, the rich) whereas Kerry and the EVIL LIBERALS were favouring the option that was everybody-friendly? how is this bad?
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 13:53   #24
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

btw, writing pps without a ps doesnt make much sence. if there is no 'post scriptum' there can hardly be a 'post post scriptum'.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 13:57   #25
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Qdeathstar
president kerry
Aha! You do think he's going to win!
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 14:47   #26
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by raving republican
That wasnt an arguement. It was a statement. :-/ Some people were complaining aobut Bush useing the "fear" of 9/11. I dont personally think that it is a "fear" but instead a real issue that needs to be address.
i agree it's a real issue. if people hated my country as much as a large portion of the world's population hate america i'd be worried as well.

however, there's rational worry and then there's fear mongering. take a look at the presidential debate thingies. what percetage of bush's answers were realted to 9/11 in some way? as far as i could tell they were pretty much all of them that didn't involve making america a christian state (land of the free... lol).

anyway, as for addressing the issue. the way i see it, bush had several options. he could either, try and improve homeland security (like, for example, tell the terrorists that he knows where they're planning to hit, so they hit elsewhere instead. great plan dubia!) and possibly send in some special ops type troops after osama. you know, perhaps be sneaky about it, rather than giving him several weeks warning that you're comming! stellar plan that was! on the subject of iraq, he could have not invaded them. rather than going in after the oil. oil prices falling nowadays? last time i checked they wern't.

basically, people attacked america because they hate what it stands for. personally, i hate the way that the majority of americans come accross as not giving a shit about the rest of the world - kinda like you do with your 'looking out for out own interests' crap, as a justification for invading sovereign nations. so, what do you do? you go out and piss a load of people off? cunning plan batman! that'll stop people wanting to blow america up, they'll love you then! oh... wait...

basically, since dubia came to power he's done nothing to actually deal with terrorist attacks, brought in a legislation which tramples over citizens rights and generated more america hating terrorists. yes, i think he's addressing the issue!

Quote:
Originally Posted by irrational Kerry hatred
Kerry, on the "other side", used Social Security as a fear tactic
got to say, i've heard kerry on social security very little, whereas every time i see george on tv he's babbling about how the world's full of people who hate america

Quote:
Originally Posted by qdeathstar
While president bush has expanded funding
doesn't president bush keep taking pops at kerry for wanting to increase things like welfare sending? something about kerry being a liberal and therefore planning to tax people more? (who needs to pay for the budget anyway? not george!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by someone who's not thought about WHY he might have voted that way
President Bush tried to reform Social Security, a system that would allow seniors to control THEIR own money, without the government paying for it. Instead, they would be able to put it into a tax-free IRA, and that money would earn enterests as it matured. Sounds like a great idea. But, President Kerry and the other liberals decided that they werent going to let a "good idea" get through congress, so they blockaded it, and VOTED to keep the old system. Thats right, while Kerry says he wants to adress social security, He voted to keep it the same.
just perhaps, kerry wants to reform it to help the average joe, rather than the top 1% that don't need help, but that bush wants to help anyway. wonder which group bush's friends and campaign supporters fall in to. not that bush would put his mates before the people of america...

that said, how the hell is a tax free savings IRA not the government paying for it. i'd have hoped you'd be bright enough to realise that when the government makes something tax free it looses revenue, and is therefore in effect paying for it. making savings/investment tax free is simply a 'shiny' mechanism for paying the rich more than the poor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by qdeathstar
But, not supprisingly, he is misinformed.
can you tell me what george's budget defasit (sp?) is at the moment? can you tell me how much that adds up to over the next 10 years? if kerry were to balance the budget and then use the huge defasit that goerge is running at to fund pensions, i suspect it'd solve the problem. therefore, as a supporter of george, you have no leg to stand on in any debate about fiscal responsibility.

-mist
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 15:13   #27
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Of course president Bush will remain in office for another four years.

The policy of either candidate has very little to do with the outcome of the election. Democrats will still vote Kerry, Republicans will still vote Bush. Those genuinely interested in politics have already made their mind up either way, and considering every single poll put them on about equal footing, they're not the deciding factor.

The ones deciding the outcome are those that care enough to vote, but otherwise don't care too much either way. Bush has a much higher media factor than Kerry, regardless of whether the attention he receives is positive or negative. Kerry is some bland senator without much of a personality, Bush is everywhere in the media, has a comedy TV show about him, got the country through 9/11, captured Saddam and is always good for a laugh when he says something stupid.

I'd be very surprised if Kerry wins.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 15:16   #28
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

The latest odds are:

Which Party will win the next US Presidential Election?

Republicans 8/11
Democrats EVS
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 15:16   #29
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Exclamation Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
p.s. This whole "flip flopping" thing is utterly retarded.
Why? Because you don't think Kerry is a flip-flopper or you don't think it matters?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mist
that said, how the hell is a tax free savings IRA not the government paying for it. i'd have hoped you'd be bright enough to realise that when the government makes something tax free it looses revenue, and is therefore in effect paying for it.
Oh please. How about I not charge you for posting on GD? Thus, I'm losing potential revenue and, in effect, I'm therefore paying for your posts!*

In any case, IRAs aren't tax-free, they're tax-deferred.



*Btw, you're fired.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 15:21   #30
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Am I the only one who doesn't really care, as it's the lesser of two "evils" ? Plus I don't even live in America so... yeah.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 15:27   #31
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
Oh please. How about I not charge you for posting on GD? Thus, I'm losing potential revenue and, in effect, I'm therefore paying for your posts!*
your example sucks, sorry. there are no charges for posting on GD (hell, pa doesn't even pay for the forums as they're hosted on some random box somewhere). as such, not charging me doesn't introduce charges elsewhere.

on the other hand, IRAs being tax free would mean (assuming a balanced budget, lol) that something somewhere else had to be taxed instead.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tacticus
In any case, IRAs aren't tax-free, they're tax-deferred.
how's that work? and i blame qdeathstar for this. if he knew what he was ranting about i'd have been right!

-mist
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 15:33   #32
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

what are IRAs?
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 15:41   #33
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wu_trax
what are IRAs?
Really pissed-off versions of JonnyBGood.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 15:45   #34
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
Why? Because you don't think Kerry is a flip-flopper or you don't think it matters?
In this context, a bit of both.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 16:01   #35
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Exclamation Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
Well tax breaks are subsidy, the things which were previously paid for with that revenue have either to be cut or the money has to be found somewhere else.
That assumes the money reflected in the tax break just disappears from the economy. It doesn't and eventually it's taxed. In the case of IRAs the money is invested and, hopefully, helps to generate some additional profits for those companies in which it's invested (some of which will go towards corporate taxes). Eventually the money is withdrawn by the retiree and more taxes are paid on it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mist
how's that work?
The way an IRA (Independent Retirement Account) works is that an individual doesn't pay taxes on money put into an IRA nor on any earnings that money generates. However, taxes must be paid on all money taken out of an IRA. So it's not tax-free, just tax-deferred.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 16:03   #36
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

id like to point out that my intelligence went ++3 in this thread

not --3
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 16:08   #37
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Despite all hoping and praying to the contrary, all supposed swing state polls, and the general willing of anyone with half a brain for americans to pull their heads out their arses, George W. Bush is going to win the election.


Mother**** that cause ya'll forgot about 'feh.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 17:31   #38
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
The way an IRA (Independent Retirement Account) works is that an individual doesn't pay taxes on money put into an IRA nor on any earnings that money generates. However, taxes must be paid on all money taken out of an IRA. So it's not tax-free, just tax-deferred.
so, when you withdraw money from the account it's treated as regular income?

-mist
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 17:36   #39
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

and no matter how much money you earn, as long as you put it into such an account its tax-free?
but given the far too low savings-rate in the us the whole thing doesnt sound like such a bad idea, at least not for a Bush-idea. id probably set a maximum per year though
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 17:50   #40
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
helps to generate some additional profits for those companies in which it's invested
And there we have the reason that Bush wants it introduced.
It had to be there somewhere.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 17:56   #41
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
That assumes the money reflected in the tax break just disappears from the economy. It doesn't and eventually it's taxed. In the case of IRAs the money is invested and, hopefully, helps to generate some additional profits for those companies in which it's invested (some of which will go towards corporate taxes). Eventually the money is withdrawn by the retiree and more taxes are paid on it.
All money put into the system is eventually taxated, and none of it disappears.

If the end result is that the same person will get the same amount of money to actually spend, the same amount of that money will go back to the state as sales taxes etc. In the end all that matters is how much of your income is expropriated by the state and how much you get to spend yourself; everything else is just fluff.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 18:48   #42
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Exclamation Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mist
so, when you withdraw money from the account it's treated as regular income?
Yes; although there are some penalties if you withdraw it early (before age 59.5 atm).
Quote:
Originally Posted by wu_trax
and no matter how much money you earn, as long as you put it into such an account its tax-free?
but given the far too low savings-rate in the us the whole thing doesnt sound like such a bad idea, at least not for a Bush-idea. id probably set a maximum per year though
Yes, there is a maximum per year contribution.

IRAs are not Bush's idea, they've been around for decades. What Bush wants to do is to expand them and make them an alternative for younger workers instead of Social Security (which is going belly up in 30+ years due to changing demographics[tm]). It won't save Social Security, but it might lessen the crash.

Kerry's position, like most politicians, is 'If it's not going belly up during my term, why fix it?'
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 18:56   #43
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

ahhh this is the "invest social security money in the stock market" idea.
Very clever.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 18:57   #44
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
changing demographics[tm]
we all have the same problem. in europe its even worse, because we have less mexican immigrants. but anyway, private saving wont do much to avoid the problem. its still the same: a lot of people want money and only a few safe money. if people buy stocks the market crashes, if people put it in their bank accounts intrest rates jump (i guess...) if people put it in a state controlled system the state runs out of money.
changing demographics suck :/
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 19:26   #45
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

i thought the problem wasn't so much what to do with investment, but that people wern't making any.

it is kindof interesting tho, that all this 'aging population' stuff says that there'll be more old people to support, so each working person will have to do more to support the old people, yet doesn't seem to take in to account increased automisation. if there's twice as many old people, yet one in two workers is replaced by a machine where's the problem?

-mist
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 20:33   #46
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Exclamation Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mist
i thought the problem wasn't so much what to do with investment, but that people wern't making any.
Any what? Investments or profits?

My retirement funds did super during the '90s. They've grown a lot slower since, but over the course of a working lifetime you have to expect a recession or two. Also, you can/should move your investments into less riskier areas (bonds, money market funds, etc) as you get older.
Quote:
it is kindof interesting tho, that all this 'aging population' stuff says that there'll be more old people to support, so each working person will have to do more to support the old people, yet doesn't seem to take in to account increased automisation. if there's twice as many old people, yet one in two workers is replaced by a machine where's the problem?
There's no problem at all if the remaining workers don't mind paying four times as much (twice as many old people divided by half as many workers).
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 21:25   #47
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mist
yet doesn't seem to take in to account increased automisation. if there's twice as many old people, yet one in two workers is replaced by a machine where's the problem?
probably this is because it's not yet known wether increased automatisation and computerisation in- or decreases the total number of jobs.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 21:43   #48
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactitus
There's no problem at all if the remaining workers don't mind paying four times as much (twice as many old people divided by half as many workers).
theyll have to do that anyway. for the worker it wont make much of a difference if he has to pay more taxes or if the profit margin of the company has to be higher because there is more money invested in the company.
one way or the other the people who work pay for those who dont.
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 22:08   #49
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

This may seem like a ridiculous question, but after all I am an "ignorant American", why do you Europeans care so much about who gets in the US office?

Both candidates are pretty much selling almost the same kind of foreign policy and while they do differ somewhat on domestic policy that really shouldn't concern you. I mean as bad as you guys think GW is, if he gets elected, I can assure you that the world will still turn round and will pretty much be the same for you and me. There will be politicians that come and go after him where some may be worse and some may be better. I figure that most of us posting in this forum are in college or are planning to go into college so the War in Iraq really isn't a direct concern for us. (Besides I really hate it when people argue that it is Bush sending them over there to die. Right, or Wrong War, those people signed up for the military and AGREED to follow all orders. They made the decision, they were not forced or drafted. Besides most of the people in the military that are in Iraq are going to vote for Bush anyway so it can't be that bad for them. Just my little rant, please excuse it).

Sure its nice to know that our personal opinions and convictions get carried out in the government, ie equal rights for homosexuals, or certain immigration policies, but really how much of this DIRECTLY, DRASTICALLY, ALTERS OUR LIFE?!?! I am grinding through college and am currently applying to Pharmacy School, my biggest concerns are not who is in the White House, but instead on studying chemical kinetics and endocrinology for the PCAT.

I am not preaching voter apathy. I think it is important to vote, debate, and have a general passion over politics. I agree with JammyJim that the major problem with free democracy becomes apathy. However, some of you chaps take this with wayyyyyyyy too much weight and are likely to castrate yourselves if someone gets into an elected position that is not even in your country...
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Unread 28 Oct 2004, 22:27   #50
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Re: Who reckons GWB will win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Event_Horizon
This may seem like a ridiculous question, but after all I am an "ignorant American", why do you Europeans care so much about who gets in the US office?
  • Because our own elections are completely bland and boring events, whereas the US ones are highly mediacentric festivals.
  • Because the US is the country with the biggest worldwide influence on a variety of areas, and it's leadership dictates up to a degree how it positions itself in regard to certain topics.
  • Although a fair amount of the current US foreign policy will be the same for Democrats and Republicans, that is largely due to the US having been pushed beyond the point of no return by the Republicans. A Democratic president will likely not act as unilateral in it's global affairs as Bush has done.

I realise that whichever president will be elected, the direct impact on my life will be relatively minimal. However, I do feel that both presidents would have a rather different impact on global affairs, if only due to PR skills. Regardless of actual policy, the US was a lot more liked under Clinton than under Bush, for example.
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