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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 18:42   #1
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Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

WARNINGS

Katrina was well tracked for the entire journy from tropical depression to force 5 hurricane and back down to tropical depression and dissipation.

There were many warnings of what could POSSIBLY happen along the way. The problem with hurricanes is that they are notoriously fickle in their ramblings. I have watched many predictions of where hurricanes were going to go and more often than not they have to be revised every few hours because they shift their courses widely.

Katrina defied the logic of most storms BECAUSE it became so powerful. It did not follow other pressure ridges and such that most hurricanes follow. It developed an almost-perfect eye and maintained it more persistently than most hurricanes. It overbore other conditions and came on like a steam roller. Even so, in the last few hours it diviated 25 miles east of the predicted path. Had it diviated 25 miles to the west, most of the problems in New Orleans would have probably been avoided as the levees would not have, in all likelihood been overborne by the stormsurge as the winds would have blown the surge away from the city.

LEVEES

The levees around New Orleans, like most of the levees in the United States, are 100-year storm levees. That is to say they are levees which are engineered to withstand the kind of flood that comes along every hundred years. What happened with Katrina hadn't happened for over 200 years.

EVACUATION

However, the warnings, which were not fully understood until about 36 hours before the landfall were sufficient to prompt evacuations plans to be put into effect 3-4 daqys before landfall. The New Orleans area had about 1.5 million people living there according to the figures I have seen.

All of the roadways running into and out of New Orleans were turned into one-way roads leaving the city. A massive media campaign was mounted telling people that they must leave the city immediately because of what was feared would happen. Roughly 1.4 million people from the area did leave the area. This included rich, poor and middle class people. There were people left behind, poor elderly and many tourists. No provision was made for the evacuation of these people. A gross oversight.

About 2,000 buses would have been needed to remove all of these people if they were willing to go. Many would have welcomed the help and the opportunity. Many would have hidden from authorities and would have refused to leave their property for fear/hope that the storm wouldn't be that bad and that their possessions would be looted by others who stayed for that purpose. There would not have been enough time nor enough man power to make a house-by-house search for people to force them to leave. If they had of refused, what authority would they have had to forcibly remove those people? What would have been the criticism if Katrina had veered off and the city was saved only to have people to return and their posessions stolen?

The true surprise, to me, is that more people didn't get left behind. The evacuation was the most successful in American history. Don't forget that Mississippi and Alabama needed to evacuate their coastal areas as well so many more hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated successfully as well. Also, do not forget that Florida had just been hit and resources were being sent to Florida because of the damage already done. Should the people of Florida have been told that their problems would have to wait while we waited to see what MIGHT happen elsewhere? That would not have gone over well in Florida.

Assets were staged outside of the area expected to be affected. Much of this aid went to those who got out but were now homeless. Much of this aid was sent in to Alabama and Mississippi where it was also needed. Much of this aid was stranded due to disruptions in the highway system. The major bridge to the east from New Orleans was dropped as if by precision bombing so nothing to that side could get in. Trees and powerlines were blocking highways and roadways which could not be safely navigated until the debris was removed.

Numerous logistical problems presented itself to the rescue teams.

The magnitude of the disaster was unprecedented in the US. It overwhelmed all expectations of what would be faced. Better planning could have alleviated some of the problems but probably not all.

I am sure that some lessons will be learned. However, knowing the American psyche to be overly optimistic most of the time, if another similar disaster of this magnitude doesn't occur within the next 10 years, we will undoubtedly forget much of what we have learned.
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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 18:50   #2
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

why're you posting all this?

EVEN WE WERE WARNED
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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 18:54   #3
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
LEVEES
The levees around New Orleans, like most of the levees in the United States, are 100-year storm levees. That is to say they are levees which are engineered to withstand the kind of flood that comes along every hundred years. What happened with Katrina hadn't happened for over 200 years.
So you're saying the storm should come exactly every 100 years on the dot? Otherwise the next day the levees wont cope?
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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 18:55   #4
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

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Originally Posted by sniborp
So you're saying the storm should come exactly every 100 years on the dot? Otherwise the next day the levees wont cope?
He is saying they would cope with every storm except for one that on average will only come along once every hundred years i.e. a huge freak of a storm.
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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 18:58   #5
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
why're you posting all this?

EVEN WE WERE WARNED
This was written after I saw a meteorology professor from LSU who was the first I had seen who had suggest such a possibility. This was 36 hours ahead of landfall. My post about 24 hours before. This professor was pretty much alone in his prediction for another 12 hours from what I could observe and the press is usually pretty alarmist about such things. Up to then they had been predicting rain-effect flooding which would have been troublesome but not as catastrophic as what happened.
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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 19:46   #6
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

as i tried to say before:*
Quote:
Originally Posted by wu_trax
look, you have a whole area that is threatened by hurricanes every year. in some areas there are tornados every year that also could create a lot of chaos. and, further more, there is california, where there could be some big earthquake every day. in short, something this bad could happen all the time.
yet, if only half of what i gathered from the news is true, its all some big, disorganised mess. true, you probably can't fully prepare for a desaster of this scale, but you can at least have some preparations. the government doesnt get people out and doesnt get supplies in. and now they send in troops to shoot people to stop them looting? half of them probably do it because they do have neither food nor clean water.
the president and the govonor are busy trying to shift blame on each other.
im really somewhat surprised by it, given all the babbling about terrorists with nuclear bombs. i would guess the result of such an attack would look more or less the same (a nuclear attack probably would be even worse), yet the government doesnt even seem to know who is supposed to do what.
* replace everything with past tense, as things seem to become better now

the city is below the sea level. if thats the case there is always some danger that things go awfully wrong. and while in such a big desaster its impossible to safe everyone, you could at least have had some kind of plan or at the very least clear responsibilities.
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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 20:56   #7
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by JC
He is saying they would cope with every storm except for one that on average will only come along once every hundred years i.e. a huge freak of a storm.
You misunderstand me.
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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 22:09   #8
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by sniborp
You misunderstand me.
i think everyone does. what the hell are you talking about?
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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 22:13   #9
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
Numerous logistical problems presented itself to the rescue teams.

The magnitude of the disaster was unprecedented in the US. It overwhelmed all expectations of what would be faced. Better planning could have alleviated some of the problems but probably not all.

I am sure that some lessons will be learned. However, knowing the American psyche to be overly optimistic most of the time, if another similar disaster of this magnitude doesn't occur within the next 10 years, we will undoubtedly forget much of what we have learned.
i find it incredible that there was not an emergency plan already formulated which detailed what would happen if a levee was breached and how to deal with it.
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Unread 3 Sep 2005, 22:17   #10
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
This was written after I saw a meteorology professor from LSU who was the first I had seen who had suggest such a possibility.
Didn't FEMA suggest it in 2001?
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Unread 4 Sep 2005, 00:11   #11
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_dastardley_chihuahua
i think everyone does. what the hell are you talking about?
I mean just because its supposed to protect against your 'every 100 years flood' doesnt mean the flood comes every 100 years.
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Unread 4 Sep 2005, 03:37   #12
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
Didn't FEMA suggest it in 2001?
That is why they upgraded the levees to be able to withstand a catagory 3. The odds of a catagory 4 or 5 hitting New Orleans just right to cause these problems was considered minimal.
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Unread 4 Sep 2005, 03:49   #13
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by sniborp
I mean just because its supposed to protect against your 'every 100 years flood' doesnt mean the flood comes every 100 years.
This is true, but at the same time, you cannot protect a city, any city, from all possible catastrophes. There simply aren't the resources to do so. Threat assessments are made and then they are acted on (hoopefully). Sometimes mistakes are made. These are hugely noticible.

The park across the street from my house is actually a levee which protects my neighborhood from flooding. I have seen the water level reach very near the top on a few occasions. I live in a middle class neighborhood. The levee has been considered inadequate to withstand a 100-year event.

New Orleans had better protection than I have from flooding.

My county which is poor (but only about 5% black for the benefit of Zukhov) has been begging for added funding for our levees for years, to no avail.

There are large areas of rural land which are lower than river level. About every 4-5 years a levee breaks and floods one of the "islands", fortunately these are agricultural areas. However, of recent, idiotic developers have begun building housing in these areas. The housing is, for the most part,for the moerately affluant.
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Unread 4 Sep 2005, 10:35   #14
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
There are large areas of rural land which are lower than river level. About every 4-5 years a levee breaks and floods one of the "islands", fortunately these are agricultural areas. However, of recent, idiotic developers have begun building housing in these areas. The housing is, for the most part,for the moerately affluant.
The tendency of housing developers to see flood plains as big, flat spaces with a nice view of the river is not only restricted to the US.
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Unread 4 Sep 2005, 14:48   #15
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
This was written after I saw a meteorology professor from LSU who was the first I had seen who had suggest such a possibility. This was 36 hours ahead of landfall. My post about 24 hours before. This professor was pretty much alone in his prediction for another 12 hours from what I could observe and the press is usually pretty alarmist about such things. Up to then they had been predicting rain-effect flooding which would have been troublesome but not as catastrophic as what happened.
are you suggesting that we were better informed than the president ?
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Unread 4 Sep 2005, 22:11   #16
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
are you suggesting that we were better informed than the president ?
That seems rather an odd interpretation of what I was saying. Here is what I was suggesting:

August 23 at 5:00 p. m Tropical Depression 12 forms 175 miles southeast of Nassau from the remnants of Tropicla Depression 10.

Land fall minus 133.5 hours.


August 23 at 11:00 p. m. Tropical storm warnings are issued for southern Florida.

Land fall minus 127.5 hours. still just a big wind with no idea where it was going.


August 24 at 11:00 p. m. Tropical Storm Katrina pummels the Bahamas and a hurricane warning goes into effect for south Florida.

Land fall minus 103.5 hours. "Watch out a Big storm is coming" Still no idea which way it will go. GD and GWB still unmoved.


Auguest 25 at 5:00 p. m. Fifteen miles off of Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, Katrina becomes Hurricane Katrina.

Land fall minus 85.5 hours. The overwhelming majority of citizens of south Florida stay where they are. "It doesn't look like it's going to be that bad."


August 25 at 7:00 p. m., Hurricane Katrina with 80 mph sustained winds makes Florida land fall near the Miami-Dade-Broward county lines. Local radio stations play "Walking on Sunshine" by Katrina and the Wave (no shit). More that 1,000,000 people lose electricity. Katrina loses strength and is now, once again, a tropical storm.

Ultimate land fall minus 83.5 hours. Katrina has claimed her first 11 victims. Katrina is headed west at 7.5 mph. There still doesn't appear to be any cause for great alarm. Asssets begin to deploy to Florida to clean up the damage. Power company workers begin to restore electricity to south Florida.


Augus 26 at 3:00 a. m. Katrina takes an UNEXPECTED TURN and passes out into the Gulf of Mexico on a southwest track that BEGINS to cause some concern that it could endanger the Louisiana-Mississippi coast.

Land fall minus 75.5 hours this is the earliest that anyone could have forseen that Katrina MIGHT pose a threat to the gulf coast. Katrina is still a tropical storm. Level 3 levees will hold against tropical storms.


August 26 at 5:00 a. m. Katrina is once again a catagory 1 hurricane. Still headed southwest.

Landfall minus 73.5 hours. Katrina could strike anywhere from Texas to Florida. Even if it were already a catagory 5, where would you send the troops and aid. Hurricanes have been known to back track.


August 26 at 11:00 p. m. Hurricane Katrina reaches force 2 status. Katrina, for the first time begins to track north and west toward New Orleans.

Landfall minus 55.5 hours. Katrina is still within the limits of what New Orleans was built to withstand. The eye is not well defined at this point. People fear that it MAY hit New Orleans and that it MAY get stronger.


August 27 at 5:00 a. m. Katrina is still 435 miles from New Orleans and it becomes a catagory 3 hurricane.

Land fall minus 49.5 hours. Moving at 7-8 mph, Katrina still has plenty of time to wobble onto a course which would take her in a different direction. This isn't uncommon. Katrina is still in the survivable catagory and where she is going to his is not certain.


Auguse 27 at 10:00 a. m., the residents of Grand Isle, Louisiana's only inhabited barrier island are URGED to leave.

Land fall minus 44.5 hours. No one is yet beating the disaster drums. Meteorologists are starting to get concerned.


August 27 at 11:00 a. m. the black mayor of New Orleans declines to order an evacuation of the city of New Orleans.

Land fall minus 43.5 hours. The Governor of Louisiana could begin calling up the National Guard if he wanted to but he hesitates. Bush really can't do much unless and until local authorities do or unless there is Congressional action. As Commander-inb-Chief he could start repositioning assets but what assets and where.


August 27 at 4:00 p. m. the mayor of New Orleans orders all of the roads leading into New Orleans closed and all of the inbound lanes are made outbound lanes.

Land fall minus38.5 hours. Voluntary evacuation now is begining in earnest. Katarina is still a catagory 3 hurricane.


August 27 at 8:00 p. m. President Bush declares a state of emergency in Louisiana. This allows various agencies of the federal government to begin to respond.

Land fall minus 34.5 hours. DDA for the first time hears a meteorologist go public with a prediction of a potential for a catastrophic event in New Orleans DDA says "Oh shit."


August 28 at 2:00 a. m. Katrina is now a catagory 4 hurricane.

Land fall minus 28.5 hours. Katrina is still 310 miles from New Orleans and there is still a reasonable chance that she will change course yet again as this is normal for hurricanes. It is now official, there is a chance the Katrina could kill New Orleans.


August 28 at 8 a. m. Katrina closes to within 250 miles of land and is upgraded to a catagory 5 horror****ingcane. Last resort shelters are opened in New Orleans for an estimated 100,000 individuals who could not or would not leave the city.

Land fall minus 22.5 hours. The black mayor of New Orleans still hasn't ordered a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans. No one else has the authority to do so. I only mention the color of the mayor as it would relate to any claims of racisim unless one is willing to make the argument that he was a self-loathing black who hated his constituency and wanted to see them suffer.


August 28 at 10:30 a. m. The mayor of New Orleans orders the mandatory evacuation of New Orleans only after being urged by President Bush to do so.

Land fall minus 20 hours. Finally, the evacuation is on in earnest.


August 28 at 11:00 a. m. Interstate 10 (the major east-west highway) is already in grid lock. Bush expands the emergency order to include Mississippi.

Land fall minus 19.5 hours. Panic has set in.


August 28 at 11:24 dda apprises GD community of impending doom.

Land fall minus 19 hours 6 minutes. The finest minds in the western world begin to become aware that there may be a problem.


August 28 at 4:00 p. m. Torrential rain begins to punish New Orleans. Katina is still 200 miles away.

Land fall minus 14.5 hours. The window for evacuation has begun to close tightly.


August 28 at 11 p. m. Katrina, still a catagory 5 hurricane is 170 miles from New Orleans and aimed right at the city. Mayor says 80% of New Orleans has been evacuated.

Land fall minus 7.5 hours. Good luck to the poor bastards who are still there.


Auguist 29 at 3 a. m. Katrina starts to weaken and drops to a catagory 4.

Land faill minus 3.5 hours. Too little, too late.


August 29 at 6:30 a. m. Katrina changes direction and hits the Louisiana coast heading 25 miles east of New Orleans.

Zero hour. The shit has hit the fan.


August 29 at 6:30 p. m. The worst of the storm is past and the streets of New Orleans are pretty dry. New Orleans thinks the worst is over.

Land fall + 12 hours. A levee is noticed to have been breeched. Uh oh.


After that the story is pretty well known.

When would any of you have had the perspicacity or clairvoyance to have acted?
What would you have done and how?
Which of you would have had the balls to say screw the constitution, our federal system of government and breeched the levees of law because you could see what was coming?
These are not easy questions. There are not easy answers.

I simply present the proposition that you don't have to be an idiot, uncaring or a racist to have made a bollocks of the whole thing. I, for one, would have done worse than even the mayor of New Orleans who was derilict in his duty to his city by at least a day, it would seem. How many more could have been evacuated if he had ordered it 24 hours earler? We will never know.
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Unread 4 Sep 2005, 23:22   #17
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda

When would any of you have had the perspicacity or clairvoyance to have acted?
What would you have done and how?
Which of you would have had the balls to say screw the constitution, our federal system of government and breeched the levees of law because you could see what was coming?
These are not easy questions. There are not easy answers.
If you are seriously suggesting, which frankly i find comedic, that the system of US goverment prevent and denied a properly conducted evacuation of new orleans then the obvious come back is to blame the people who created that system of governence and they are guilty of severe incompetence for creating and maintaining such a system.

If you are suggesting that 'there wasn't enough time' then i would still point out that this community new well enough in advance what was threatened and if the leaders of the world's only superpower did not know before dace and I then they are guilty of severe incompetence.

If you are suggesting that the majority of people who will have died in this disaster died because they remained in new orleans then you are being seriously disingenuous to the point of being misleading. The majority of deaths in this (now disaster) will have been caused by the singular failure to respond to events with the resources the US had on hand.

For that the failure to evacuate new orleans; the failure to provide means of evacuation post event; the failure to provide food, water or medical care; the obsession with 'looters' rather than with basic human care, these are all merely examples of a level of incompetence, so massive, that it is inconcievable and unbelievable to any who haven't just watched it unfold before their very eyes.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 02:48   #18
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

You quote the questions. You rant. You do not answer the questions.

Where on the time line would you have had enough information to have committed resources?

Where would you have sent those resources?

How many resources would you have committed?

I don't think that you have any idea of the logistics necessary for this situation.

I am not saying that there is not blame to be parceled out. I am not saying that there is not enough blame to go around. I AM saying that it is not as simple as you make it out to be.

Lessons will be learned from what has gone before. If government takes nothing from this, THEN I will truly say that they are incompetent. I will reserve my judgement on their current functioning until ALL of the evidence is in and sifted.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 10:32   #19
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

And that, dda, is why you will never make it here in GD land. You must learn to pass judgement with no evidence. It would also help if you would just trust the socialist, environmentalist, atheist propaganda.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 11:01   #20
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Well, all I can say on the matter is, 'It wouldnt happen in England'
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 11:18   #21
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

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Originally Posted by Texan
atheist propaganda.
Damn those atheists, always asking for "evidence!"
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 11:32   #22
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
Damn those atheists, always asking for "evidence!"
If we could all just agree that religion is the root of all evil, the world would be a much nicer place. :xmas: Noooo, Santa is evil. Go back to the north pole.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 12:22   #23
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texan
If we could all just agree that religion is the root of all evil, the world would be a much nicer place. :xmas: Noooo, Santa is evil. Go back to the north pole.
You're confusing.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 12:58   #24
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
You quote the questions. You rant. You do not answer the questions.

Where on the time line would you have had enough information to have committed resources?

Where would you have sent those resources?

How many resources would you have committed?

I don't think that you have any idea of the logistics necessary for this situation.

I am not saying that there is not blame to be parceled out. I am not saying that there is not enough blame to go around. I AM saying that it is not as simple as you make it out to be.

Lessons will be learned from what has gone before. If government takes nothing from this, THEN I will truly say that they are incompetent. I will reserve my judgement on their current functioning until ALL of the evidence is in and sifted.
riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

i don't think your present argument of 'you couldn't have done any better from your home in england than the president of the united states could do from the white house with a massive administrative staff, information and technology beyond the scale and more money than jesus' is anything other than a complete misnoma or what gordon used to call a 'straw man'.

It seems inconcievable that you would:
a) try to defend this debacle of incompetence.
b) try to do so by idle speculation that 'i couldn't have done better'

your arguments are disingenuous to the point of being pure show manship (did you spend time in the circus?).

high handed use of phrases like 'evidence' indeed!

there is plenty of evidence for this tragic act of gross incompetence. not only have we all witnessed it. but Bush himself admitted it was unacceptable. trying to deflect the issues by attacking me is comedy at best.

and just so that YOU 'get some perspective' (as you people would say) the logistics involved are a damn site less complicated than invading a foreign country several thousand miles away.

gathering the best information
making decisions about when to make orders.
when to committ resources
making contingency plans
THIS IS ALL PART OF A GOVERMENT'S JOB

If somebody doesn't do their job properly they deserve criticism.

P.S. I really can't believe you thought 'you couldn't have done any better' would convince anyone. I actually feel slightly sick that you did.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 14:12   #25
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by CrashTester
Well, all I can say on the matter is, 'It wouldnt happen in England'
Well, remember this ? by the time the police had arrived to tell us about the flooding, we had been without power for at least an hour and had moved everything we could up stairs so the US has hardly got a monopoly on not warning it's citizens of potential disaster
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 14:14   #26
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

I could also list all the different agencies in the UK that were already mobilised by the time the evacuations started but as the Carlisle flooding can't really be compared to the New Orleans flooding by virtue of it's scale, it's quite pointless really.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 14:14   #27
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Here in the UK, I seem to remember a band called "Katrina and the waves". I was never a fan of course. http://www.katw.com/
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 14:20   #28
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaio
... but as the Carlisle flooding can't really be compared to the New Orleans flooding by virtue of it's scale, the potential threat to property and life being far lower, the lack of a need to evacuate and the fact that the emergency services did respond rather than leaving us to die in our own sewage and excrement for days on end without food water or medical supplies, it's quite pointless really.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 15:11   #29
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
There is nothing that occurs to you that has not already occurred to me.
It is obvious you don't have a clue. You're criticism has no value, because you are completely ignorant on the subject. And your ego is so huge, you can't admit that you are ignorant on the subject.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 17:56   #30
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Thank you for the pointless additions.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 17:57   #31
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

it was the way i could best honour your pointless post.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 18:07   #32
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
it was the way i could best honour your pointless post.
I don't see how my posts were pointless.

I was replying to Crashtester's comment on how 'It wouldnt happen in England' when the services here were probably similarly useless with regard to information and were certainly a lot slower with their warnings.

My 2nd post should perhaps have been expanded to ask why the various US churches in different states hadn't mobilised to help with the relief without the intervention and some could quite correctly suggest interference from the federal government and thanks to your pathetic attempts to score points I see my error.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 18:09   #33
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaio
I don't see how my posts were pointless.
reading them again might help.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 18:15   #34
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
reading them again might help.
Please enlighten me oh wise and wonderful lawyer type
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 18:29   #35
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

1) What where you posting it for?

To Undermine CrashTester's claim that this situation wouldn't have occured in England

2) How do we undermine that claim by crashtester?

It had 2 fundamental elements: the situation and how that situation might compare if it had been enacted in England. So we must consider those 2 elements.

3) did your posts succeed in doing this?

the situation: a catestrophic storm (predicted category 4 or 5) is heading towards a major city and densly populated towns this poses a real and serious threat to life and to property on a massive scale. the government fails to evacuate the area. after the storm has caused horrendous amount of damage the goverment does nothing for 3 days: leaving citizens to starve and fight for water in a city without power, without healthcare and without sanitation. on the 4th day the government air lifts in some cursory water supplies but fails to bother to adequately distribute them (the boxes are dumped in a carpark out of the chopper, the strong young men rush and take them while the weak watch in despair). on the 5th day the government finally manages to order the airlift which it was always able to order, citizens are evacuated.

can we compare this to anything which has happened in england: you posted about carlisle. some few residents of a relatively minor town left to live without power and being forced up a flight of stairs for an hour???

This is not comparable. Making the posts themselves useless.

this was noted by the original poster:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaio
it's quite pointless really.
and yet he still demanded that i waste 10 minutes of my life explaining to him in detail.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 18:35   #36
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

the flooding in carlisle was not a moderately predictable hurricane and there was an immediate response and there wasn't that dire a need for an immediate response.

these three things are not shared with katrina.


for my own two cents, surely voluntary evacuations even when it looked like Katrina would track back would be sensible, and mandatory once we knew where it was going?

rather than voluntary when we knew where it was going and mandatory when they looked rather silly for putting people in a great big pen instead
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 18:51   #37
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
1) What where you posting it for?

To Undermine CrashTester's claim that this situation wouldn't have occured in England

2) How do we undermine that claim by crashtester?

It had 2 fundamental elements: the situation and how that situation might compare if it had been enacted in England. So we must consider those 2 elements.

3) did your posts succeed in doing this?

the situation: a catestrophic storm (predicted category 4 or 5) is heading towards a major city and densly populated towns this poses a real and serious threat to life and to property on a massive scale. the government fails to evacuate the area. after the storm has caused horrendous amount of damage the goverment does nothing for 3 days: leaving citizens to starve and fight for water in a city without power, without healthcare and without sanitation. on the 4th day the government air lifts in some cursory water supplies but fails to bother to adequately distribute them (the boxes are dumped in a carpark out of the chopper, the strong young men rush and take them while the weak watch in despair). on the 5th day the government finally manages to order the airlift which it was always able to order, citizens are evacuated.

can we compare this to anything which has happened in england: you posted about carlisle. some few residents of a relatively minor town left to live without power and being forced up a flight of stairs for an hour???

This is not comparable. Making the posts themselves useless.

this was noted by the original poster:

and yet he still demanded that i waste 10 minutes of my life explaining to him in detail.
Oh dear Yawnye,

Unlike yourself I rarely lower myself to undermine points, I was just reminding Crashtester that
similar incompetance at a government level has happened here.

The rest of your post really doesn't make any sense as you seem to have failed to read anything other than perhaps a few words and created your own sentences.

You also seem to have missed this

Quote:
but as the Carlisle flooding can't really be compared to the New Orleans flooding by virtue of it's scale, it's quite pointless really
perhaps you should look back to what I did post during that time. you probably missed them first time around as I believe you were under a ban for for acting like a twat for some bizarre reason.

To save you time look here

Honestly Yawnye, much as I do enjoy watching you make a complete wanker of yourself, why do you entertain me like this ?

It must be a lawyer thing as I have never met one that isn't a complete wanker.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 18:53   #38
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Interesting, I notice you replied on that thread.

Did you forget ?
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 18:57   #39
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

I do as you ask.

I demonstrate why your posts where pointless. I do so in depth, in my own free time.

Now that's been demonstrated you've decided to go on waffling pointless posts, this time with the aim of somehow 'attacking' poor me who so selflessly aided you in the first place.

'nice'
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 19:02   #40
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
I do as you ask.

I demonstrate why your posts where pointless. I do so in depth, in my own free time.

Now that's been demonstrated you've decided to go on waffling pointless posts, this time with the aim of somehow 'attacking' poor me who so selflessly aided you in the first place.

'nice'
I hope others are as entertained as I when they read your posts.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 19:04   #41
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

i'd just be grateful if you understood them
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 19:07   #42
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Yahwe

Let me ask a simpler question.

When did you and Dace become aware that the doom of New Orleans was likely?

Just a date and time is all I am asking at this point.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 19:11   #43
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

dace and i don't run the US.

If i'm asleep no one runs in to wake me up saying "you've got to see this"

as it happens your thread was the first i'd heard. a full mandatory evacuation was still possible when you warned me.

but you really are getting confused. i'm not saying it was disgraceful that america was hit by a hurricane i'm saying that the disgraceful thing was your leaders leaving it's people to die. only a very small part of that is evacuation - american's are generally bad in a crisis and we can't all be levelheaded all the time. but the days after it had struck? days??? those are unforgivable.
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 19:29   #44
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

This thread was never intended to address the aftermath of the storm or how it has been handled. The thread is clearly labled. I went back and reread my contributions to this thread. I have merely tried to point out that there wasn't as much time as many would think. It was not days. It was hours.

I would estimate that the Mayor of New Orleans should have ordered the mandatory evacuation maybe as much as 12 hours earlier.

I would argue that, unfortunately, the additional 12 hours would probably not have made a great deal of difference to the evacuation. The poor would have still been poor. Those who would choose to stay and proctect their property would still make the same decision, etc.

There may have been a few thousand more who would have evacuated, it is sad they didn't get the chance. It wouldn't have appreciably have affected the tragedy that later unfolded.

I had intended to open a thread discussing my opinions regarding the releif effort (or lack there of) but time hasn't permitted.

[On an unrelated note, I leaveday-after-tomorrow for my holiday and will not be b ack on the internet until the 18th. I just wanted peopole to know that I was away and not to think that I had fled or was angry.]
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 19:32   #45
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

there's no point in focusing on one tiny element of the disaster and saying 'there wasn't enough time'.

the disaster could have been averted or lessened at many different points in time over the week during which it unfolded. what is shocking is not that the 'right' decision was not made within a tiny window of opportunity, but that over a protracted period of days no decisions were made
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 20:00   #46
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

gotta love the fan boys......
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Unread 5 Sep 2005, 21:31   #47
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
there's no point in focusing on one tiny element of the disaster and saying 'there wasn't enough time'.

the disaster could have been averted or lessened at many different points in time over the week during which it unfolded. what is shocking is not that the 'right' decision was not made within a tiny window of opportunity, but that over a protracted period of days no decisions were made
Leadership is a matter of decision making. The conditions facing the leader are essential to judging the quality of the decisions. My argument in this thread is that the decision making process prior to the storm striking was flawed, but within the limits of what could reasonably be expected.

The mayor of New Orleans, who was on sight and who presumably knew his people the best hesitated. Bush did not hesitate as long as he was the one who convinced the mayor to order a mandatory evacuation.

The question which this raises is, should the governor of Louisiana or the president have the authority to order a mandatory evacuation without consulting the mayor? Since the local police answer to the mayor, how would you do this?

What sort of organization should you have to try to get those least able to get themselves out of the city?

These are the things which have to be sorted out regarding evacuation.

Regarding the warning aspect of it, there isn't much which can be done to increase the time in which the authorities will need to act. However, these events will probably encourage larger reactions on less information. May be good. May be bad.

Prior to land fall, what sort of assets can you muster on short notice that will have the best chance of affecting the later course of events? Where can you posiotion them to move quickly as possible after the disaster has befallen? Plans for countless thousands of eventualities have to be made and continually updated for various areas of the country.

I think that it IS NECESSARY to break the thing down in some fashion to be able to discuss even part of it in this format. Anything larger gets so amorphous as to be meaningless.

If what you are wanting to say is that the situation was handled badly, I agree. I want to know the mechanics of the handling. I want to know what was possible and what was not. I want to know what can be done in the future to handle it better. I don't care, at this point, who was to blame as much as I am concerned with why they went wrong and what could have been done better.

BTW, the latest news today is about bodies which are being recovered out of the Garden District. The Garden District is one of the most posh residential districts I have ever seen. Maybe it was all poor blacks who washed up there from other areas of the city. But it certainly suggests that the aid didn't converge on the wealthy portion of town. I would also guess that a number of the dead are white and wealthy.
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Unread 6 Sep 2005, 01:33   #48
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Re: Katrina, Warnings, Evacuations and Force 3 Levees

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
Leadership is a matter of decision making. The conditions facing the leader are essential to judging the quality of the decisions. My argument in this thread is that the decision making process prior to the storm striking was flawed, but within the limits of what could reasonably be expected.
i'm perfectly happy to accept this.

the other points regarding failure to evacuate are integral to the system of US government. We need to be in a position where You and I can criticise that system freely without either of us believing that that system is sacrosant for us to progress any further.

but as far as failure to evacuate goes i'm perfectly happy to say that represented an acceptable level of incompetence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dda
BTW, the latest news today is about bodies which are being recovered out of the Garden District. The Garden District is one of the most posh residential districts I have ever seen. Maybe it was all poor blacks who washed up there from other areas of the city. But it certainly suggests that the aid didn't converge on the wealthy portion of town. I would also guess that a number of the dead are white and wealthy.
btw 6 hours ago a family of 7 children (mother had died through lack of fresh oxygen delivery, she needed it as medical care) was rescued by a bbc correspondent (mum's body had been decaying on the bed for 3 days) who yurned up in a boat.

bbc correspondent visibly shaken and surprised. if london is flooded I do not expect to be saved by ted turner or elsa clench while my government does nothing.

ESSENTIALLY: if it helps you to focus on this man made catastrophe piece by piece minute by minute then of course you must. i confess honestly to you, i'm still in a state of shock.

i never believed this was possible.
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