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Originally Posted by ComradeRob
LCH's problem is, in my opinion, a short-termist view of politics.
This round, they attacked 1up before there was any obvious need to do so. They could have waited and let someone else attack 1up first. Or they could have allowed 1up to take a clear lead, forcing everyone else to gang up and take 1up down.
By putting 1up under enough pressure to keep their lead down, but not enough pressure to defeat them, LCH ended up helping 1up. Also, by blocking (or appearing to block) with Insomnia and Hydra, they created a scenario in which 1up could also make NAPs.
LCH were certainly unlucky in their choice of allies - Hydra and Insomnia both imploded, whilst 1up's NAP with Reunion proved more valuable than it initially appeared. But I think this just proves the point: LCH made their decisions too early and were left unable to respond to the changed circumstances later in the round.
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True, then again it's also easy to say afterwards ... "you should have done this and you shouldn't have done that" ...
And the choice of allies often is an estimated guess and a belief in good faith (e.g. I know the Hc of the other alliance, they seem capable so they'll play a good round). But all in all it's pure guessing, although I agree you can minimize the risks.