Thread: The Round from CBA's perspective
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Unread 10 May 2012, 12:18   #322
Mzyxptlk
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Re: The Round from CBA's perspective
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clouds View Post
It was quite predictable that a block would form against Ultores pre-round, due to the amount of consecutive rounds won, being headed by Conspiracy/FAnG, but I did however underestimate the block's incompetency to cooperate, though. The sole aim of the block was to stop Ultores from winning at any cost, but it seems greed deterred that aim.
This is straight from game theory. It's a version of the classic prisoner's dilemma. Given two alliances of roughly equal quality (CT and faNg), refusing to end your NAP with the other competing alliance is a strictly losing strategy. At best, you keep the NAP, but a roidrace only gives you a 50% chance of victory; at worst, your enemy gets some alliances to join them, ends the NAP, and kills you. On the other hand, finding some allies and ending the NAP yourself is a winning strategy. At best, you catch your enemy unawares and kill them; at worst, your enemy was planning the same thing, found some allies, but a war still gives you have a 50% chance of victory.

Cooperation is only a rational strategy until you've reduced the odds that the stronger third alliance (Ultores, in this case) will win to below the odds that the other opponent (CT or Fang) will. Whether anyone ****ed up at any point between when the block fell apart and now I don't really know, but if you allow me some speculation: the fact that CT could no longer win might indicate they did something wrong, and the fact that CT joined Ultores against faNg might indicate either Ultores did something right, or fAng did something wrong.

This scenario has played itself out many, many times in PA. In my opinion, it's one of the better ways for a round to develop. Sometimes the stronger alliance wins (Ascendancy, r31), sometimes one of the other competitors does (Evolution, r37). The more competition there is in a round, the more interesting it tends to be. Several people have stated that they think this round is the best in recent history, and I completely agree. It would have been much more boring if Ultores had been completely destroyed by a block that lasted from tick 0 to tick 1177.
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