[Tactitus]

Originally Posted by Achilles

I was much more making the point that people who had previously voted Bush/Republican now believe they made a mistake. People may not acknowledge this change of heart publicly, either because they simply don't like admitting mistakes (most people probably fall into this category to some extent) or feel a need to remain outwardly loyal to something they once genuinely believed in even if, perhaps, they no longer do. This could be for reasons of pride or perhaps to appear steadfast in front of other Republicans in their families or neighbourhoods. They may well be inclined to ignore such pressures in the privacy of the voting booth.

I'm not really seeing your point here as most polls are conducted over the telephone and are semi-anonymous* and confidential. They're not much more public than a polling booth from my perspective. The pollster on the telephone doesn't know if you previously voted Bush/Republican unless you tell them. If you're otherwise too embarrassed to say you're voting for Obama then just tell the pollster that you're a lifelong Democrat or an independent or whatever.


Anyway, if the polls are right (overall), then Obama should win with 5-6% of the popular vote and about 300-310 electoral votes (270 needed to win). If the polls are wrong... well then I guess anything could happen. :|

I wouldn't be too surprised to see it a bit closer, but I would be quite surprised if McCain pulls it out (although it would be worth it just to see Keith Olbermann's head explode).



*The polling organization may have a fair amount of information on you but I suspect they don't share much--if any--of that with the interviewer, just to minimize bias creeping into the results.