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Originally Posted by ComradeRob
I honestly don't know, but I'm not sure that it's a safe assumption to make. It seems to me that, since ND are assuming that there's cooperation between 1up and Angels, and Angels are assuming that there's cooperation between ND and eX, both alliances are going to make the other's assumptions come true even if they weren't true when they were initially made. Both sides can now begin formal cooperation with their assumed partners, on the justification that "we're going to be attacked because people think we're cooperating, so we will have to cooperate in order to survive".
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This I believe is a thoroughly correct analysis. Misconceptions in planetarion have often lead to rumours turning into greatest fears, turning into reality because the parties who the rumour was about had the situation thrust upon them for no good reason.
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If they did that, people would accuse them of fence-sitting 
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The problem is that people are all too keen to see one kind of behaviour, and label it fence sitting. ND have not at any point attempt to NAP the universe, or avoid incoming. All we've done is simply, do our own thing. People seem to dislike it, but that's for obvious reasons, because they wish ND to act in a way that suits their purposes. The minute ND
have been seen to be interfering, they have been quickly pegged back, which entirely runs those opinions null and void. ND is perhaps not as powerful militarily as the other 3 alliances you analyse - we have to tread a bit more carefully, which is often why people fail to appreciate ND's position and decide to rant their spleen accordingly, expecting ND to play either as a powerhouse on its own, or as part of some role in a block. To fit ND into either category doesn't do it justice.