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Unread 1 Feb 2011, 17:14   #182
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Re: rd 40 predictions... go go go

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Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk View Post
I am not actually playing, so yes, I'm just a spectator sitting on the outside looking in. Thankfully we have (various) sandmans(es) back, which, together with Munin access and the power of deductive reasoning can paint quite a good picture. I've been doing it for over a year now. Funny thing about spectators: they often have a better idea of what's going on than the players.
Spectators can and often do have a better view of the whole game but they can miss vital bits of info. I just dont think Rock is as weak as people are trying to make out, time will tell though.

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That said, I assume you're of good faith, and obviously I'm not omnicognent, so I'll take your word that Rock sent lots of fleets on ND last night. That does make me wonder though, how come they only gained 484 roids today?
got it confirmed to double check and Rock launched by far the most fleets on ND last night. I dont know why they gained so little, Could be that the other alliances got the majority of there gains from other targets in ND gals. ND lost less than 6% of there roids last night, which seems alittle low considering there were 4 alliances hitting them.

You could argue that Rock was being used as flak.

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Additionally, from past experiences with and in Rock we can determine what kind of alliance they are. Looking at their HCs and a few of their members (though Ascendancy intel seems to be sorely lacking on that last bit, which is another indicator), I see no breaks with the past, nor a sudden influx of experienced top tier players.
The thing is, How many 'top tier' players would you say CT has? xVx seems to have the most top-tiered players on paper (apart from Apprime) but they're all playing for planet/galaxy rank.

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So the only way they can be a top tier alliance now is if, as Assassin said, they have always been one. What exactly demonstrates this is indeed the case? Did they have any top 3 finishes? Get any impressive military achievements? Do they have some commonly recognized political masterminds? A reputation for devious strategies? I am pretty sure the answer to all these questions is in the negative, but feel free to convince me otherwise.
I agree with you on this point, that they wasnt a top-tiered alliance. I spent yesturday arguing the point that Rock has spent the majority of its rounds being lower-tiered. So, i cant really convince you there.

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As for the inevitablity of CT's and ND's complete destruction, no alliance currently has that capacity, not even Apprime. And even if they do, it'd take a long enough time for the political landscape to change quite drastically. If that doesn't happen, then you're in trouble, not a moment before.
I dont think they need to complete destroy ND/CT, as once they're damaged.. either of the alliances could fight them and win 1v1 with there value/roid advantage. Its question of, if CT/ND does get damaged, will they still have the moral or will to fight Apprime (If there block falls apart)? Im not really concerned about ND/CT getting wtfpwned as that doesnt really make Rocks decision good or bad for there round. Im just annoyed by the decision, as i cant see anything but an Apprime win unless Rock changes sides and its never good when the round-winner is decided before we're even half way through the round.
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