Planetarion Forums - View Single Post

Achilles · 2 Nov 2008, 15:43

Context: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/...08/7704636.stm

People (Republicans) often cite the Bradley effect as a reason why the election will be closer that the polls suggest. But, as an avid digester of a broad range of American cultural outpourings, I've recently started to wonder if maybe the reverse isn't true, that Obama will in fact have a wider margin of victory than expected. A reverse-Bradley effect if you will, although I suspect that race may well be one of the less important factors.

The truth is that more and more Republicans are becoming disaffected with the manner in which their country has been run lately. They no longer identify with their party and subsequently it's candidates, in all elections, and their campaigns. McCain's own selection from the primary is symptomatic of this fact. As is his selection of Palin, a move clearly designed to hold his own base together rather than to sway those that lie betwixt the Red and Blue. This disaffected base may not betray their party publicly, to the pollsters, but I suspect many will once they enter the privacy of the voting booth.

I think the McCain campaign has seen these cracks developing for quite some time and recently Obama's people have targeted states once presumed unwinnable. Those who follow British politics will remember the mood before the 97 election where Tony Blair's Labour swept to power in an massive, and largely unexpected, landslide. Campaigning on a ticket of a "New Labour" that would bring change from the corrupt and elitist policies of the Tories, he won over a huge part of that same Tory base. So crushing was that loss for the party as a whole that I think it's fair to say they are only now recovering.

I think something similar will happen here. What do other people think?

2 Nov 2008, 15:43	#1
Achilles Poblacht na hÉireann Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 1,167	Election Prediction Thread Context: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/...08/7704636.stm People (Republicans) often cite the Bradley effect as a reason why the election will be closer that the polls suggest. But, as an avid digester of a broad range of American cultural outpourings, I've recently started to wonder if maybe the reverse isn't true, that Obama will in fact have a wider margin of victory than expected. A reverse-Bradley effect if you will, although I suspect that race may well be one of the less important factors. The truth is that more and more Republicans are becoming disaffected with the manner in which their country has been run lately. They no longer identify with their party and subsequently it's candidates, in all elections, and their campaigns. McCain's own selection from the primary is symptomatic of this fact. As is his selection of Palin, a move clearly designed to hold his own base together rather than to sway those that lie betwixt the Red and Blue. This disaffected base may not betray their party publicly, to the pollsters, but I suspect many will once they enter the privacy of the voting booth. I think the McCain campaign has seen these cracks developing for quite some time and recently Obama's people have targeted states once presumed unwinnable. Those who follow British politics will remember the mood before the 97 election where Tony Blair's Labour swept to power in an massive, and largely unexpected, landslide. Campaigning on a ticket of a "New Labour" that would bring change from the corrupt and elitist policies of the Tories, he won over a huge part of that same Tory base. So crushing was that loss for the party as a whole that I think it's fair to say they are only now recovering. I think something similar will happen here. What do other people think?