Thread: Polls
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Unread 23 Jan 2008, 18:24   #13
Baron Morte
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Re: Polls

Conclusion
14 The trend in the graph is not simply a trick of the eye. The null hypothesis of differences in opinion direction among blacks by year of the survey can be rejected at the .35 level.
The results offered in this paper deepen our understanding of biases in opinion polls in particular, and political participation more generally. The balance in the volume and salience of elite rhetoric on given issues may greatly impact the shape of aggregate opinion in politically consequential ways. In the case presented here, analyses that use very different data sources converge to the same conclusion. A significant – though admittedly small – dovish segment ofthe population was excluded from opinion concerning Vietnam in the early part of the war. However, this bias shrank over time as anti-war messages became more common in the public sphere. Over time, as the flow of elite rhetoric reached a balance reflective of the underlying considerations of the American public, a more complete picture of the public’s views were expressed. Thus, the increase of elite anti-war messages cues not only that segment of the mass public who consistently answer survey questions (Zaller 1992) but also allows an important segment of the public to give voice to their politically relevant wants, needs, and desires.
In sum, while opinion polls may serve as important complements to traditional measures of political participation, they cannot substitutive for them. The point here is not that polls are inegaliatarian; perhaps they are the most egalitarian possible measures of the public’s will. However, it is important to recognize that they may suffer from the same biases as other forms of political expression.
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