The Big Ol' War Thread
 

Well...someone's going to have to start it.

Poor Lebanese. Seriously, according to the news, the airport is destroyed, the main highways out to Syria is destroyed, and people have no where to go, are running out of gas, civilians are dying all over the place and Europe's stuck with its dick in its hand talking about 'peace missions' and the US, my country vetoes a UN resolution condeming the total crazyness over three Isreali soliders?

I honestly am disgusted with how America looks the other way whenever Israel (and for what?) goes crazy. I don't like the way America deals with the Saudi's either, but that's totally besides the point.

Crazy overreaction. Don't you think? Would the UK have the same response if the IRA had kidnapped british soldiers? Just started attacking Ireland with jets, and bombs?

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

/care different people, different enemy's, different ways to handle things. goooo jews

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Why would Isreal not do something like this? They always get away with it, without even a slap on the wrists from the international community.
You'd think by now they'd have learned that massive opression and force doesn't work.
As if Lebanon hasn't had enough shit to deal with over the past while, they've got some rampaging Zionists blowing up their country because a terrorist orginization captured two soldiers.

Which was in responce to a rediculous use of massive force against the Palestinians.

**** Isreal. Keep hiding behind this 'jewish persicution' thing. **** religious zelots and fundamentalists, all types.
**** Zionist nutbags.
**** Muslim extremists.
**** right wing Christan cocksniffers.
All contribute to the massive death and destruction fest we see today.


So...how far do you think this will escalate? Here's hoping it won't see more civilan deaths.

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

Same here.

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Doesn't matter how much you hope, there will always be civilian deaths in warfare. Until they invent a bullet that can tell the difference between a civilian and a non-civilian that is

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But there doesn't always have to be warfare. Especially when it's just a kidnapping of two soliders. How many people will die for these two soldiers?

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We all know the two soldiers are just a convenient pretext for Isreal to reoccupy the territory of those it does not like. Countries no longer declare war, they wage peace in the misguided belief that if they kill a few hundred people, this will cow the other side into submission.


"If we kill all the militants then they will stop attacking us"

"But you can't kill all the militants, and when you try, you invariably kill civilians"

"Yes but there are now less militants, peace is inevitable"

"But killing civilians encourages more militants"

"Then we'll just have to kill them too!"

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

People who say 'it's just two soldiers' are either being terribly short sighted or deliberately obtuse. While I'm not defending Israel's actions persae I do think this needs to be considered in a realistic context.

Firstly, Hezbollah are not just terrorists. They are participatory in the the Lebanese government aswell as being a substantial paramilitary organisation with an annual income in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Secondly, this follows very closely on the heels of the Gilat abduction. Hezbollah, clearly aware of the Israeli position on that issue, made a strategic decision to widen the conflict in the hope that this will further their own aims. They knew innocents would suffer as a result, why are they not culpable?

Thirdly, this is not about prisoners. There will be no release of prisoners. If there was it would signal the beginning of Israeli Soldier Season.

It seems apparent that Israel wishes to make it clear that there will be an economic and humanitarian price imposed every single time something like this occurs. This seems to me to be a sensible policy for Israel to adopt in the circumstances. In fact I'm really not sure what else they could do if you consider the protection of their own citizens as their paramount concern.

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Hezbollah gets much of their money from Iran and much of their weapons from Syria. Hezbollah essentially rules southern Lebanon as a state within a state (it's a no-go zone for the Lebanese army). From this base they elect over 10% of Lebanon's national assembly and their large militia gives them near veto power over the government. No attack on Israel from southern Lebanon could be carried out without Hezbollah's knowledge and approval (if not actual participation).
Yes, Hezbollah clearly got the reaction they wanted (or perhaps the reaction that their Iranian and/or Syrian patrons wanted). The interesting question is what are their aims. Open a second front? Provoke a Syrian/Israeli conflict? Divert attention from Iran (who's now going before the Security Council)?



Some pictures from both sides of the Israel/Lebanon border from Michael Totten's blog:
http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001004.html
http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001132.html

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

iran have warned that if israel attack syria they will see it as an affront to all muslim nations, why would they bother doing that unless they think it will escalate even more? i agree with tacticus here that iran and syria have probably had a hand in this somewhere along the line :/


also: israel couldnt really let lose like this in the gaza strip, so they have been given the perfect excuse to flex their military muscle by hezbollah here, well done hezbollah for being 'just a tad' short sighted

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While I'm sure hezbollah are probably idiots I wouldn't assume that a massive escalation isn't exactly what they wanted.

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I'm not sure you realise what it is that Hezbollah acually want.
And seeing as they are supposedly financed by Iran it makes perfect sense that they would want Israel to start fighting a war on many sides. Especially when their main allies are caught up in a seemingly never-ending conflict elsewhere.

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This forum makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. SA is pissing me off. Thank you.

My gf's grandfather was rushed to the hospital on wednesday morning, suffering from a heart attack. Although all is well now, him, his wife and my gf are now stuck at the hospital since the bridge to the south (where they live) has been bombed. Her parents were flying to Lebanon on friday, but are now stuck outside the country. Her younger brother is at home, in the south of lebanon, with his uncles.

I'm very very worried right now since Israel has pretty much isolated the country, by destroying the runways at the international airport (three times), destroying the bridges internally and those connecting to Syria, and have established a sea blockade.

Here's a nice quote from SA:

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

Let's not forget that Israel still occupies Lebanon, albeit unofficially, and that they still keep more than 10,000 arab (lebanese and palestinian) prisoners.

Which is why Hezbollah tried to exchange prisoners one more time.

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and move their whole country to Europe / the US?

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I think he meant .. "withdraw their troops from Lebanon/Gaza/wherever"

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I dont think that's going to be enough, also I don'T think there is going to be peace in the middle east, EVER.

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It would have helped in this case. Their reaction was totally out of this world.

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T&F is presumably referring to the illegal, expanding and frequently ignored settlements on the West Bank.

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It'd be a start.
OK, let's say that is the case. Surely we still want to minimise the intensity / scale of the violence, no?

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And how is it going to help? Let's say Israel leaves all the occupied territory, allows the Palestinian to run their own country, leaves libanon and syria alone, etc., do you really think those militant muslim groups will suddenly lay down their weapons and that there suddenly is going to be peace love and happiness in the middle east?

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Not immediately no. However without a target for a lot of their unfocused aggression they're going to turn on their own highly corrupt and highly undemocratic regimes. Hopefully when they're torn down they'll approach the rest of the world on an open and undivided front. Only then are you going to see the economic growth and sufficient standards of living which inhibit most sane people from taking up arms and marching off to die in a hopeless, self-reinforcing war.

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My girlfriends dad cant get out of Lebanon because they bombed the airport and syria closed the borders etc.

But its quite interesting.

The lebanese have been twats for doing what they did, and the Israelis as usual have been idiots as well.

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Incidentally, this happened, and no they didn't.

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Giving the Hezbollah power. (Thats an argument my gf uses anyway)

For kidnapping the israeili? Perhaps if they (when I say they I mean Hezbollah) didnt do such a thing, it wouldnt of kicked off.

Its a shame as Lebanon is such a kick ass country, which is a rarity in that region.

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wasn't blastoderm going to lebanon? :(

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it was Yemen

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Johnson: You don't watch the news...?!

Jeremy: What? Oh yeah...! Who do you support? Mark's Israel. I'm Palestine. Makes it more interesting."

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Hezbollah was indeed founded as a direct response to Israeli incursion of a small part of southern Lebanon. However, this occupation ended in May 2000. In order to maintain the legitimacy of Hezbollah, Lebanon then claimed a tiny piece of land in the Golan Heights which is still occupied by Israel but recognised internationally as Syrian territory.

You seem to be suggesting that the current Israeli offensive against Lebanon is a reprisal for actions carried out by the Palestinians. This is simply not true, it is a direct response to actions carried out by the Lebanese.

I don't agree with you here either. Israel has the capability to kick any kind of shit it wants to out of Syria and Iran is situated on the other side of Iraq, safe and secure from Israeli aggression. Which is no doubt why their lunatic President feels so safe in provoking Israel and in using Hezbollah and other factions as puppets in their unofficial proxy-war on all things Zionist. I seriously doubt they would be quite so bold if they were within reach of Israel themselves.

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For those not calling it a war, a naval blockade is an act of war (as is bombing your city). This is war. If it is not war, then I guess Lebanon isn't a sovereign state.

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I accept that such a legacy exists. However I do not see how the spilling of more blood, Israeli or otherwise, can change what has happened in the past. Lebanon should pursue restitution and the repatriation of prisoners through means other than the deliberate provocation of a government known to be extremely reactionary. The fact that they choose to do otherwise is indicative of a further agenda at play, perhaps not even their own.

I do not believe it is this simple. Once Israel had made the initial move of striking against the Palestinians for the Gilat abduction they locked themselves into a course of action. Perhaps it was the wrong one, it was certainly on the extreme end of available reactions but once they did it for Gilat how could they do less for any other soldier so captured? Hezbollah knew this and acted accordingly. It is they that have put their own citizens in harms way for no possible gain (for Lebanon) and with everything to lose.

Again, it seems clear that they must be pushing a further agenda. Israel believes this agenda to be the elimination of the Israeli state. For it to be "wiped off the face of the Earth" as the ever so eloquent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad so delicately put it.

Agreed. Furthermore it is likely that without US backing Israel would never have been founded. Nor would it have survived to the present day, even if it had.

Israel has always stated a policy of 'Scorched Earth' and has a considerable stockpile of nuclear weapons. It is publically stated policy that if Israel cannot have their Holy Land then no-one can. Anyone who questions their will to use these weapons is a fool. If the worst were ever to happen I am sure that nothing much of anything would survive out there.

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It is also an act of war to cross the border of a sovereign state by force of arms and kidnap it's citizens.

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Hezbollah != Lebanon.



Watching the news, it amazes me that the Lebanese are blaming Hezbollah for this: not directly, but because they expect a terrorist organisation to show restraint and reason since the Western-backed nation-state won't.

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It amazes me that the Lebanese are not willing to take responsibility for what occurs in their country. Having said that, I think the military action taken by Israel virtually guarantees a delayal of their withdrawal from the West Bank - not a good thing.

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so you are seriously advocating that israel should have traded prisoners back for its soldiers, a trade that NO nation in the world would (or could) even remotely consider?

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They have no control over it though.

Have a read of one of Tacticus' links.
this one

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The idea that nation states control the areas that we give them on maps is at best horrifically flawed. Realistically we're just approaching this all from a very incorrect paradigm.

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I hate war.

the only thing that prevents war is negotiation and give and take.

trying to prove one side right or wrong is antithetical. proof either way precludes compromise. certainty promotes conflict.

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Israel is attacking (near) Sidon.

My gf was just able to give me a call, in tears, to report she can see the Israeli jets flying over and the bomb shells in the horizon. Attacks are going throughout the night, people are being rushed to the hospital where she is, the jets are so loud no one is able to sleep. She's terrified.

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That Tycho guy needs to chill out, he's simply radiating passive aggression. I'm not surprised terrible things keep happening to him with that attitude.

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I initially heard about this on the radio today and laughed my ass off ...

But Mr Bush said that in order to bring the conflict to an end it was important to understand why it had started in the first place, "and that's because Hezbollah has been launching rocket attacks out of Lebanon into Israel and because Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers".

I guess it was so funny because it followed the news presenter advising the listeners that Israeli jets had been blowing up bridges and roads in Lebanon today killing 15 civilians.

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

putin saying that the 'use of force should be balanced' is a bit hypocritical though i think

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You know what I find interesting is how much the Islamic world is divided, despite its univeral antipathy for Israel. I guess a lot of the division comes from the fact that Hezbollah started this current problem, and not everyone agrees with the action. But I think it is interesting, because you can kind of see what how the Arab states are thinking about this. Some of these states seem like they want peace with Israel, they don't want to fight. What surprises me is how unwilling they are to unite, dispite Israel's overbearing assault of Lebanon. You think their condemnation would be stronger, their unity stronger, and their support for Lebanon more than words.

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

Yes, well, some of these states have signed peace treaties with Israel presumably because they're tired of fighting (or possibly tired of losing). The previous strategy of declaring war on Israel en masse wasn't very successful.
Arab/Islamic unity is something of a myth but that aside there are several reasons why a number of Arab states might not be keen on backing Hezbollah. Some of the reasons I've seen/heard:

• Some of the Arab states have figured out that however much they might hate Israel, provoking or attacking her militarily just gets a lot of people (mostly Arabs) killed and accomplishes nothing.
• Hezbollah didn't consult with the other Arab states before poking the Israelis with a sharp stick (or they did consult but didn't listen when the Arab states suggested that maybe now wasn't a good time).
• Hezbollah is a Shia organization and most Arab states are predominantly Sunni.
• Hezbollah is an Iranian client and some Arab states don't like the Iranians (the most critical of Hezbollah have been the Saudis who are also the least friendly towards iran).

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

I agree that war is a bad thing.

However, in looking for compromises one must look to the possibilities.

Perhaps a good starting point for compromise would be for the Islamic countries who do not recognize Isreal's right to exist to do so. Clearly, Isreal cannot compromise on that issue or they would in fact cease to exist.

Questions:

If Hammas and Hezbollah and all other countries and groups were to stop attacking Israel do you think that Isreal would continue to attack just for the fun of it?

If Israel were to immediately stop ever striking outside of its border regardless of the provocation, do you thing the attacks on Isreal would lessen or increase (remember that Hamas and Hezbollah as well as Syria and Iran have said that the state of Isreal should be wiped from the map)?

Hamas IS the government in Gaza. Are not its attacks those of a foreign nation?

Hezbollah has 13,000 rockets and most of the other military might in Lebanon. Are not the attacks by Hezbollah those of a foreign nation?

If the government of Lebanon could suppress Hezbollah don't you think they would?

Do you think that Hezbollah, Hammas, Syria or Iran would hesitate to use neuclear weapons against Israel if they were in possession of them?

If you believe the answer to the previous question is no, do you blame Isreal for not believing they would not hesitate?

It is easy to say that there should be compromise, however, it is much more difficult to see the basis for reasonable compromise.

The unbalanced condemnation of Isreal by many European nations is not likely to calm the fears of the Israelis.

Some in the thread have refered to the Israelis as Zionists. However, the Israeli's have had to fight for their existence since the day of their birth as a nation. That the Jews elsewhere are willing to move there is no one outside of Israel's business. The lands which are "occupied" by Israel are lands which were historicly used to lauch attacks on Israel. A defendable border is not unreasonalbe.

Compromise is admirable but where does it lay?

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

both sidea have an arguable case my friend.

compromise is about giving.

peace is achieved by choice

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Peace has to come from the choice of both parties. I don't see any desire to choose peace from Hammas, Hezbollah, Syria or Iran.

Compromise is about exchanging.

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Since Israel is occupying Palestenian territory this is a strange way of viewing things. An occupation is a daily attack, and the conditions that many Palestenians find themselves in is evidence of this. But yes, I suspect violence would be reduced if people stopped resisting the occupation (that's a general truth in any occupation).
Lessen. See Jonny's earlier post, but also do you think it's a coincidence that everytime there is a reasonably large attack (from either side) it's followed up by a large attack by the other side? Intensifying the level of violence doesn't actually work (well, "work" in terms of reducing the overall level of violence).
Of course they would hesitate, don't be utterly foolish. If nothing else, why would they want to make their own lands uninhabitable? If they didn't care whether they lived or died why not just fight a constant conventional war with Israel?

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I see only escalating violence.

compromise is not achieved through demmands.

at some point somebody has to be the grown up.

I really don't care who it is. I don't care about excuses. I just want somebody to do it - soon.

Re: The Big Ol' War Thread
 

Israel is the aggressor, Israel is the problem. They've walked all over Palastinians for decades, doing whatever the liked, whenever they liked. If I lived in an occupation, I would fight back too. I think that if Israel lost a war, the region would be better of for it.