Ship Stat Analysis
This post is mostly about getting my predictions in writting. I have run an analysis of the ships stats that is based purely on two factors, ships relative initiative and the relative targeting of each ship. Because this is still a work in progress I will not reveal the details of how my analysis works right yet, but I will make the following predictions, some of which may apear obvious but others may not. Keep in mind my analysis does no take into effect firepower and armour, so balance my predictions based against those known ratios.
Firstly some ships that will be good this round: Terran: Gryphon and Dragon will rock. Cath: Roach and Spider are the best ships in the game. Xan: Only rocking ship for the xans will be Nightmare, overall Xan ships are a very mixed bag, some really good ships and some really bad ones. Zik: Best Zik ship will be Corsair, my analysis doesn't account for the stealing factor, but overall Zik will be weaker then last round. Ships that will do poorly: Terran: Drake, Basilisk, Chimera Cath: Blackwidow Xan: Ghost, Specter, Apparition are the worst ships in the game Zik: Clipps, Bucs, Pirates are all weak Overall things discovered by analysis: There are a TON of DEs this round (nine) and lots of things that fire at them, making DE fleets of any sort messy. Overall Terran and Xan are about even, and Cath/Terran/Xan are about the same initiative balance as last round with Ziks being significantly weaker then last round. Anyway this analysis tool is a work in progress, we'll see how the round treats this method. You are of course welcome to agree or disagree with my analysis to your heart's content, only time will tell if there is any merrit to my method. |
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One more note. Because Terran's best two ships target the same class (DE) it skews their stats to the positive more then it should. Gryphons are redundant as Dragons do the same job only are a good roid fleet, so over all in my opinion Terrans are weaker then my analysis suggests.
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There is 2 things interesting in the Xan fleet:
- 3 Fi when there's no pod in this class (the only other example of 3 kill ship in a class is the Terran DE, but then they also have a DE pod). - no CR and no BS in the Xan fleet, that must be a first. On the first point, i think 1 of the Fi should have been made a CO, atm the Sprite looks like a leftover ship. On the second point, it feels like an advantage. Xans don't have to research and construct anything for big ships and can rush for faster eta. There's 10 ships (all races) that don't target Xans. |
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A lot of people have mentioned how poor the Black Widow seems to be.
To me, that's a surprise. It's not a ship in a pod class, but it's 2-3 times more effective at stopping Battleships, resource for resource, than any other ship in the game. Ok, it only EMPs but that's still quite some ratio. I knocked together an efficiency table. It's a bit confusing, but you're welcome to look: http://game.planetarion.com/statsanalysis.pl The Black Widow EMPs 160% of it's own resources in terms of Leviathons. The other contenders are: Basilisk (70%) Tarantula (68%) Ghost (72%) Pirate (62%, Steal). Also, note that EMP is more effective vs the other Bs, whereas kill/steal ships are less effective (due to armour/EMP differences). |
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Yeah, but the main problem with EMP is that you must stun 100% of the enemy's fleetscore before it even becomes effective. Additionally, the enemy has no incentive to recall, thus tying down your BW for the whole night on just one defence mission.
Compare that to kill ships; Kill ships only need to kill around 30% to make people recall in most instances. Additionally, you are far more likely to cause recalls (though potentially launch/recalls as well) by sending kill ships. This benefits the defender, usually, as more co-ords become available, there is more time to react, and the enemy becomes vulnerable to counters and/or fleetcatching if they are going to be predictable. So really, you need to compare 100% of EMP to 40% of kill; if they are around the same, then EMP is about comparable to kill in terms of effectiveness (if not efficiency). |
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Eta advantage? Not targeted? Priceless
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160/68 = 2.35 Hence black widow is effective, roughly (if not efficient)? (To take into account the "must" to build roach it makes sense to build tarantula instead, though, as tarantula fits in with the fleet and gives you some EMP flak against the less effective scarabs, ehh). Quote:
Effectivity, five quid. Efficiency, fifty quid. ETA advantage, ten thousand quid. Part of an attack fleet, priceless. |
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I never said it didnt, just the comparing efficiencies with EMP isnt a fantastic idea imo. |
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part of an attack fleet doesn't make it that great a def ship especially with mil scans, surely :(
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Otoh, if you choose to attack late enough, after pretty much everyone has sent their attack fleets, then you might not enounter all that many because of the lack of available fleets at that time. Thus, i think it depends. |
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i meant as an alliance def ship of course!
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And, if you don't build it for attack fleet, in my opinion, it still beats the black widow in a lot of cases. |
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Scarab and rogue will be around a lot as cath cruisers seem to eat xan and terran for breakfast
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On the topic of black widows. In my analysis I am looking at what the ship targets verses what targets it. So in the case of the bw there are 5 BS that it targets, at the same time there are five non BS that target the bw thereby limiting it's overall effectiveness (in my calc making it a 0 overall). My analysis however doesn't take into account the fact however that in most cases bw is a defensive ship and so will only be facing BS not non BS. However, there is a good chance that bw owners will be attacked with ships that target FR making it necesarry to run bw or face loosing them, which while bw may be an effective BS counter, make it a liabity in same cases.
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Sounds like an unnecessarily complicated analysis to me if you take into account all ships that target a given defence ship. |
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Well, really what you should be doing is comparing the defence ship to the likely attacking combo; if the combo is for example a Terran BA plus syren, then the fact that the Syren will own the defence ship is important; the fact that an Interceptor does also target it, is not important.
I reckon. |
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if nothing else, this stats at least have provided something vaguely resembling a good stats discussion, shame cath are still pretty awful so it's somewhat irrelevant though
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Bring back the Fighter-class pod!!
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I can understand this position because I havn't revealed my method, but this actual doesn't end up happening. My method does in fact take into account pod classes and several other factors. As a result you do in fact get a range of good ships and bad ships. I used my method to analyize both of the previous two rounds and my method sucessfully predicted most of the ships that did the best and the worst. When it comes to fights its not JUST about using ships that arn't targeted by the attacking class, but also ships that fire before the attacking class and several other factors. The reason for creating this initiative based method of stats analysis is to try and have a quantitative method for determining the initiative advantage of each ship, which at the moment there is no way to really quantify the advantage one ship has over another in terms of iniative, which imo is the most important factor in terms of the value of any given ship. Because if you shoot first (or arn't targeted at all) you always have an advantage. |
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some issues with the stats:
1/ terran is more or less unroidable, as tarantulas and nightmares are awful ships. 2/ terran is further strengthened by the fact that it'd be pointless for ziks to steal bs as they can't build any bs - so they've no actual flak. 3/ terran is basically the xandathrii of r11, what i mean by this is, not only are they a hard race to roid but their main defence ships that they'll be vary of when attacking is their own ones. 4/ d/c of terran is equal to xand.. whilst also having at least 1.5x their armour ............................. 5/ cath still doesn't work. 6/ the prices are all stupid but maybe this is personal preference but it's plainly irritating and ridiculous to see that the biggest xan ship is smaller than a terran corvette ... more will come later |
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Xan firepower needs to be increased, without a doubt.
Also, I'm not thrilled about their Corvettes... A Fighter-class pod would be nifty *cough* |
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suggestions:
(16:02:53) <jer> rogues -> de kill cr, bucc -> bs steals cr, increase tarant dmg rather than xand anti-bs, drop pulsar init, nightmare 38/39 for a/c and d/c (16:04:15) <jer> increase pulsar to 30/40 or basically 1 value up on both from now, swap a/c ratios of de and bs (aka make de better a/c wise) |
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Zik having no bs??
What the f..... I want more ability to fake fleets, but without building bs on my own and not farming no zik will get enough bs to build a proper bs-fleet. and that nice ship called pirate is a useless defship against bs. maybe building de to steal some cr is nice but without being able to fake em in several ways will make it very hard to get roids if not taking part in big gal/ally-raids :-( but maybe im totally wrong...... Prost! |
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I love the pulsar scandal.. 23% OF THE GAME IS GONNA BE UP FOR A SUPRISE lolololol
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can someone please change the banshee name to pulsar again
oh and i take back one of my suggestions, one of pulsar or nightmare should go back to their shittier selves |
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xand's DE's emp resistance needs to be lowered a lot, i'm presuming appoco made a mistake as he didn't realise the costs were so low, they're in fact better than every other de in the game in terms of e/res
proof: 100 Roach (10k) will freeze Chimera: 52 (14k) Pegasus: 44 (14k) Drake: 36 (14k) Demeter: 32 (14k) Ghost: 176 (6336) Spectre: 136 (10k) Haunt: 176 (15k) Clipper: 96 (17k) Buccaneer: 76 (18k) Ironclad: 60 (18k) nothing short of ridiculous, ghosts e-res should be halved at the very least and spectre 66% of current. |
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One more note, given the fact that the stats have changes, my predictions are no longer valid. :-p
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yeah all my planning out the window -:salute:
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lol you guys should know they change stats till last min every round so next time start this when round starts and we will all singup late
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shut up and just play the game instead of moaning about the stats. We can alll see them and we all get the choice of race we wish to play. So the rest is up to you
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in case you havent noticed this is the strategy discussion forum, wtf is wrong with discussing how the stats will play out? Alot of people want to hear others thoughts on the matchups.
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the guy is an idiot, almost as stupid as xand's de's e-res is which for god knows what reason has been left alone in it's ridiculous state........
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Everytime someone says e-res it makes me giggle, reminds me of e-penis :(
And PLEASE do something with jer's stats changes :/ |
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Strange as it may seem, not everyone is in favour of Jer's stats. Whilst unanimous support is obviously not a prerequisite for the adoption of stats, just because a number of people repeatedly post the same thing on these forums (whose ability to represent the playing community is questionable), does not mean that the stats are either a good thing for the game, or should be implemented at the exclusion of any other alternatives. I will tolerate no more whinging regarding this issue on this forum. If you have a problem with that, raise with me in PM. I've nothing against assessing the feasibility and quality of jer's (or anyone else's stats). Just make sure you (meaning everyone) dont cross the line in future. |
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who cares about my stats now, the round has started, i'm more worried about the abnormality i reported in the past 2 posts that were ignored by the pateam quite stupidly :/
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you see this UN? who cares about next round? |
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Nevertheless, the whinging rule applies still! :) As for Xan DE EMP Resistance, it seems to be an abboration or oversight, however its obviously too late to change it now. I could speculate that Appoco might have left it there because he saw that Cathaar was - perhaps - too powerful against all its targets, and thus the high DE EMP Res should lead to some interesting tactical outcomes for this round....... |
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Now. |
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the tactical "outcome" will be that it will only take 1 fleet of xand de to stop most cath cr attacks... :|
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The alternative was that Cath could roid Xan at will with both of their roiding fleets. At least they'll only be able to do it with Co fleets now.
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aren't cath "meant" to be able to do that
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and clearly cath dont have anything else to roid tbh :(
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There's nothing outrageous in having a xan ship resistant to EMP (there is a Terran ship with fast init...)
Xan can't attack Caths, if they can't def against them either it's a bit too much. Now the problem is if the Caths can't attack anyone else... |
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note that the roach freezes only 60% of it's value in ghosts..
... that's utterly obscene and easily the WORST emp efficiency i have ever seen |
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and thats why terr will win the round
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what?
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I must say, Terran, Cathaar and Xan are well balanced! More than I've recently seen. Only zik is a little behind.. but let's see how they'll do a little later on
PA team (almost) did it this time! gratz :D |
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